Frederick W. Kagan
Frederick W. Kagan is the director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). In 2009, he served in Kabul, Afghanistan, as part of General Stanley McChrystal's strategic assessment team, and he returned to Afghanistan in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to conduct research for Generals David Petraeus and John Allen. In July 2011, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen awarded him the Distinguished Public Service Award, the highest honor the Chairman can present to civilians who do not work for the Department of Defense, for his volunteer service in Afghanistan. He is coauthor of the report Defining Success in Afghanistan (AEI and the Institute for the Study of War, 2010) and author of the series of reports Choosing Victory (AEI), which recommended and monitored the US military surge in Iraq. His most recent book is Lessons for a Long War: How America Can Win on New Battlefields (AEI Press, 2010, with Thomas Donnelly). Previously an associate professor of military history at West Point, Dr. Kagan was a contributing editor at the Weekly Standard and has written for Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and other periodicals.
Position | Director |
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird 1 day ago ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...
Iran Update, March 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld 1 day ago ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei shut down intra-regime debates about political reform to address protester grievances and instead confined th...
Iran Update, March 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld 2 days ago ANALYSISIranian security leaders have announced in recent days that they will resume enforcing the mandatory hijab law with a confrontational app...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Angela Howard Riley Bailey 2 days ago ANALYSISRussian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey 4 days ago ANALYSISRussian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 17, 2023 ANALYSISChinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...
Iran Update, March 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 16, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 15, 2023 ANALYSISThe overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...
Iran Update, March 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld March 15, 2023 ANALYSISHardline officials are promoting conservative reforms, which will likely generate additional calls for political change in Iran. Hardline...
Iran Update, March 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 14, 2023 ANALYSISChina has three roads to Taiwan: The US must block them all
Dan Blumenthal Frederick W. Kagan March 13, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko March 12, 2023 ANALYSISThe conflict between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely reached its climax against...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fig...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 09, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...
Iran Update, March 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 09, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime likely assesses that it is losing its cultural campaign for Iranian women. Iranian women are reportedly defying the ma...
Iran Update, March 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani March 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.
Iran Update, March 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick March 06, 2023 ANALYSISOver 110 separate student poisonings occurred throughout Iran on March 6.[i] Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They ar...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes March 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...
Iran Update, March 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani March 05, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime has permitted the country-wide, coordinated attacks on Iranian schoolgirls to escalate.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut bu...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fig...
Iran Update, March 2, 2023
Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld March 02, 2023 ANALYSISIran Update, March 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick March 01, 2023 ANALYSISCTP assesses with moderate confidence that the Iranian regime is tolerating a country-wide, coordinated campaign to poison Iranian school...
Iran Update, February 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld February 28, 2023 ANALYSISIran Update, February 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl February 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko February 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 25, 2023 ANALYSISUK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 24, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 23, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...
Iran Update, February 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko February 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on Februar...
Iran Update, February 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 22, 2023 ANALYSISGrowing elements of the regime are publicly recognizing that the Islamic Republic has lost the confidence of its people as Iran faces a p...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions fo...
Iran Update, February 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 21, 2023 ANALYSISThe Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what pattern of anti-regime activity will charact...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird February 19, 2023 ANALYSISThe major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to...
Iran Update, February 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld February 17, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 16, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...
Iran Update, February 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 16, 2023 ANALYSISIran and its proxies may be preparing for a major effort with military elements in northern Syria. Senior officers from the IRGC Quds For...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...
Iran Update, February 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 15, 2023 ANALYSISProtest coordinators have likely strengthened their organizational capabilities and internal infrastructure ahead of calls for anti-regim...
Iran Update February 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Jonathan Baumel Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird February 14, 2023 ANALYSISMoscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.
Iran Update, February 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 13, 2023 ANALYSISThe IRGC Quds Force is likely coordinating a large-scale effort to consolidate its control and influence over critical transportation rou...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko February 12, 2023 ANALYSISRussia has partially regained the ability to conduct successful information campaigns in support of strategic objectives and even discret...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...
Iran Update, February 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 09, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a re...
Iran Update, February 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 09, 2023 ANALYSISProminent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid escalated rhetorically against the regime on February 9, expressing support for reformist call...
Iran Update, February 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld February 08, 2023 ANALYSISIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Aleppo City, Syria on February ...
Iran Update, February 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...
Iran Update, February 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 06, 2023 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken several public-facing measures in recent days likely to alleviate public frustrations toward the re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...
Iran Crisis Update, February 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is in a steady pattern of escalation with prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, which risks stoking sectarian te...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...
Iran Crisis Update, February 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 02, 2023 ANALYSISA group of pragmatic hardliners are continuing to cohere around calls for the regime to reconcile with its alienated population in the wa...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 01, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...
Iran Crisis Update, February 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 01, 2023 ANALYSISIranian officials across the political spectrum are cohering around different lessons the regime should draw from the protest movement an...
Iran Crisis Update, January 31, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl January 31, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kitaneh Fitzpatrick George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 30, 2023 ANALYSISWestern, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...
Iran Crisis Update, January 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 30, 2023 ANALYSISIsraeli combat aircraft conducted three airstrikes against likely Iran-backed militants in eastern Syria on January 29 and January 30. Is...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kimberly Kagan Frederick W. Kagan January 29, 2023 ANALYSISThis report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...
Iran Crisis Update, January 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 29, 2023 ANALYSISIsrael conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28, according to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 28, 2023 ANALYSISConventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 27, 2023 ANALYSISKremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...
Iran Crisis Update, January 27, 2023
Anya Caraiani Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 27, 2023 ANALYSISAn armed individual shot and killed the security chief of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran and injured two guards on January 27. The gun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023
Nicole Wolkov Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.
Iran Crisis Update, January 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld January 26, 2023 ANALYSISOngoing disruptions to Iran’s energy supplies may be generating severe air pollution.
Iran Crisis Update, January 25, 2023
Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 24, 2023 ANALYSISA coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...
Iran Crisis Update, January 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 24, 2023 ANALYSISSyrian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ali Mahmoud Abbas discussed deepening military cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Te...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Karolina Hird January 23, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...
Iran Crisis Update, January 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 23, 2023 ANALYSISProtest activity in Iran increased on January 23, particularly among current petrochemical employees and retired education and telecommun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko January 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 21, 2023 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Uk...
Iran Crisis Update, January 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl January 20, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey George Barros January 19, 2023 ANALYSISSenior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...
Iran Crisis Update, January 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 19, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is likely escalating against prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid. Social media users continued to document a he...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey January 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...
Iran Crisis Update, January 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 18, 2023 ANALYSISProtest activity in Iran may increase on January 19-20. Protest organizers have issued widespread calls for demonstrations on these days....
Iran Crisis Update, January 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 17, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 07, 2023 ANALYSISRecent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources. Even at t...
Iran Crisis Update, January 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 07, 2023 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to empower hardline security figures to enforce his uncompromising position toward the protests and...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 06, 2023 ANALYSISRussian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to U...
Iran Crisis Update, January 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 06, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime failed to suppress demonstrations in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on January 6. Protesters participated in...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 05, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...
Iran Crisis Update, January 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles January 05, 2023 ANALYSISRegime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey January 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...
Iran Crisis Update, January 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 04, 2023 ANALYSISProtester umbrella organizations appear to disagree on the timing of the upcoming planned protests.
Iran Crisis Update, January 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe organizational structure of the protest movement is continuing to evolve and morph as its leaders try to cohere the movement.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...
Iran Crisis Update, January 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 02, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian state security services have intensified their protest crackdown and social oppression in recent days.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey December 31, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 31
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 31, 2022 ANALYSISRecent comments from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders reflect the ongoing divisions within the regime, and especially th...
Iran Crisis Update, December 30
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 30, 2022 ANALYSISProminent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid is likely trying to balance his political positions to maximize his domestic support and achie...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces targeted Kyiv using Iranian-made drones on the night of December 29 to 30, a continuation of an increased pace of drone at...
Iran Crisis Update, December 29
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 29, 2022 ANALYSISFunerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters are continuing to sustain anti-regime activity throughout Iran as demonstrati...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angela Howard December 29, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian of...
Iran Crisis Update, December 28
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 28, 2022 ANALYSISIranian security officials and entities attempted to declare an end to protest activity on December 28 despite ongoing acts of anti-regim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros December 28, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Madison Williams George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 27, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, December 27
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 26, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.
Iran Crisis Update, December 26
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 26, 2022 ANALYSISProtest coordinators and organizations are encouraging citizens to demonstrate more regularly and spontaneously rather than awaiting plan...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 24, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 24
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Dana Alexander Gray Nicholas Carl December 24, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian Supreme Court upheld the death sentence of 22-year-old protester Mohammad Ghobadlou on December 24 after rejecting his appeal.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 23, 2022 ANALYSISMoscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aim...
Iran Crisis Update, December 23
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 23, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is likely in a mounting confrontation with citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan Province. Izeh has seen weeks of violence since...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 22, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...
Iran Crisis Update, December 22
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 22, 2022 ANALYSISSocial media accounts reported that Iranian security forces have begun violently killing and mass arresting citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan P...
Iran Crisis Update, December 21
Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 21, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 20, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, December 20
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 19, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 19
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 19, 2022 ANALYSISSome protest coordinators and organizations are trying to reclaim religion from the regime, essentially arguing that one can be devoutly ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 18
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 18, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei and significant parts of his inner circle are continuing to misdiagnose the core problems driving the ongoing...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird December 18, 2022 ANALYSISThis report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeti...
Iran Crisis Update, December 17
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 17, 2022 ANALYSISIranian security personnel clashed with prisoners in Karaj, Alborz Province on December 17, reportedly killing one and injuring up to 100...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 17, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...
Iran Crisis Update, December 16
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 16, 2022 ANALYSISProtest organizations and coordinators are increasingly promoting consistent and sustainable acts of anti-regime defiance as the Mahsa Am...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird December 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based o...
Iran Crisis Update, December 15
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 15, 2022 ANALYSISThe Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is likely conducting an information operation to discredit the neighborhood youth protest organiza...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 14, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...
Iran Crisis Update, December 14
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 14, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian economy appears to be entering a period of potentially significant disruption.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird December 13, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.
Iran Crisis Update, December 13
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 13, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime has replaced key clerics responsible for indoctrinating a significant portion of the security forces, possibly to impr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...
Iran Crisis Update, December 11
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl December 11, 2022 ANALYSISSome Iranian political and religious leaders are debating the regime’s use of the death penalty against arrested protesters.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey December 11, 2022 ANALYSISRussian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s i...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 10, 2022 ANALYSISAn unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets with...
Iran Crisis Update, December 10
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 10, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is using protester executions to instill terror among the population.
Iran Crisis Update, December 9
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 09, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 08, 2022 ANALYSISGerman Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...
Iran Crisis Update, December 8
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 08, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime executed a protester on December 8 for the first time since the Mahsa Amini protests began.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Pre...
Iran Crisis Update, December 7
Paul Stanley Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 07, 2022 ANALYSISAnti-regime strikes and demonstrations sustained momentum on December 7 as nation-wide calls to protest entered their third and final day...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard December 06, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concer...
Iran Crisis Update, December 6
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 06, 2022 ANALYSISCountrywide strikes continued throughout Iran on December 6.
Iran Crisis Update, December 5
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 05, 2022 ANALYSISProtest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly on December 5—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizat...
Iran Crisis Update, December 4
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 04, 2022 ANALYSISWestern media inaccurately reported that the Iranian regime abolished its morality patrol on December 4.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros December 04, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3
George Barros Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 03, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, December 3
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko December 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 2
Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl December 02, 2022 ANALYSISThe Mashhad Neighborhood Youth issued further instructions for the planned protests on December 5-7. The Mashhad group called for street ...
The Long-Term Risks of a Premature Ceasefire in Ukraine
Frederick W. Kagan December 02, 2022 ANALYSISAmerican policymakers today must focus on the imperative of resolving the current conflict in ways that do not set conditions for renewed...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey December 01, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against U...
Iran Crisis Update, December 1
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 01, 2022 ANALYSISProtesters in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province rhetorically defended prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid against the regim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian efforts around Bakhmut indicate that Russian forces have fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns conc...
Iran Crisis Update, November 30
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 30, 2022 ANALYSISProtest activity may increase on December 5-7. The recent calls for protests may highlight the increasing organization and sophistication...
Iran Crisis Update, November 29
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 29, 2022 ANALYSISSome Iranian protesters celebrated the US victory over Iran in the World Cup on November 29.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird November 28, 2022 ANALYSISRecent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...
Iran Crisis Update, November 28
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 28, 2022 ANALYSISSocial media users circulated calls for protests following the US-Iran world cup match on November 29 although it is unclear to what exte...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes November 27, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in east...
Iran Crisis Update, November 27
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 27, 2022 ANALYSISIranian protest organization groups may be reinforcing their organizational capabilities as protest activity entered a relative lull over...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 26, 2022 ANALYSISThe overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to inc...
Iran Crisis Update, November 26
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 26, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests on November 26.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 25, 2022 ANALYSISReports of poorly staffed, provisioned, and supplied Russian mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space, exposing the...
Iran Crisis Update, November 25
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 25, 2022 ANALYSISProtests continued but did not surge across Iran on November 24 and 25 despite calls for protests.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 23, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...
Iran Crisis Update, November 23
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 23, 2022 ANALYSISProtest activity and strikes will likely increase in the coming days. Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide ...
The U.S. Should Continue Supporting Ukraine—Americans Want To
Mark Polyak Frederick W. Kagan November 23, 2022 ANALYSISAmericans can see past Russia’s bluster and threats to the heart of the matter—Ukraine needs our help and we need to help Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 22, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...
Iran Crisis Update, November 21
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 21, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 21, 2022 ANALYSISTwo days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20
Grace Mappes Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko November 20, 2022 ANALYSISThis report discusses the rising influence of the milblogger (military correspondent or voenkor) community in Russia despite its increasi...
Iran Crisis Update, November 20
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 20, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei likely issued an unpublished directive to violently suppress anti-regime protests within the past f...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 19, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, November 19
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles November 19, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 18, 2022 ANALYSISRussian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall conscription cycle is underway, likely further f...
Iran Crisis Update, November 18
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 18, 2022 ANALYSISThe ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the Iranian security establishment.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on November 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that...
The Case Against Negotiations with Russia
Frederick W. Kagan November 17, 2022 ANALYSISNegotiations cannot end the Russian war against Ukraine; they can only pause it.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.
Iran Crisis Update, November 16
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 16, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to discourage prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid from publicly criticizing the regime have ...
Iran Crisis Update, November 15
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 14, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to em...
Iran Crisis Update, November 14
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 14, 2022 ANALYSISProtest activity and strikes will likely increase from November 15 to 17. Protest coordinators and organizers have reiterated their calls...
Iran Crisis Update, November 13
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 13, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely escalating against prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, who has become increasingl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13
Frederick W. Kagan November 13, 2022 ANALYSISThis report discusses the likely evolution of the war following Ukraine’s operational success in regaining control of western Kherson Obl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...
Iran Crisis Update, November 12
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 12, 2022 ANALYSISProtest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide demonstrations from November 15 to 17 to commemorate the three-year an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 11, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, November 11
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 11, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, November 10
LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 10, 2022 ANALYSISThe ongoing protests are creating fractures within the Iranian hardliner camp. Some parliamentarians representing restive border regions ...
Iran Crisis Update, November 9
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl November 09, 2022 ANALYSISIran and its proxies may attack US positions in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian convoy in eastern...
Iran Crisis Update, November 8
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Karolina Hird Nicholas Carl November 08, 2022 ANALYSISProtests may increase in the coming days to commemorate the regime’s brutal crackdown in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on Sept...
Iran Crisis Update, November 7
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Kathryn Tyson Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 07, 2022 ANALYSISSome elements of the Iranian regime have suggested political reform to assuage protesters’ frustrations, although such reform is highly u...
Iran Crisis Update, November 6
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 06, 2022 ANALYSISThe regime continued linking the ongoing protests with terrorism on November 6 as part of an information operation to delegitimize protes...
Iran Crisis Update, November 5
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Dana Alexander Gray November 05, 2022 ANALYSISProminent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid may begin regularly instigating protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province rather tha...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 05, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart the Donetsk offensive but will likely still fail to achieve o...
Iran Crisis Update, November 4
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 04, 2022 ANALYSISParents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will ...
Iran Crisis Update, November 3
LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 03, 2022 ANALYSISProtesters coordinated extensively to respond to the regime crackdown in Karaj, possibly reflecting growing organization within the movem...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...
Iran Crisis Update, November 2
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 02, 2022 ANALYSISIran is signaling its readiness to attack Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil ostensibly in retaliation for the Shiraz terror attack but prim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 01, 2022 ANALYSISIran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...
Iran Crisis Update, November 1
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 01, 2022 ANALYSISAmerican and Saudi officials have warned of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil, according to the Wall Street J...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 31, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on Octob...
Iran Crisis Update, October 31
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 31, 2022 ANALYSISThe regime has begun indicting and sentencing arrested protesters as part of the increasingly harsh and uncompromising stance that the re...
Iran Crisis Update, October 30
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 30, 2022 ANALYSISThe regime is escalating its protest crackdown in a way that could fuel an enduring and increasingly violent uprising against the politic...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30
Frederick W. Kagan October 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin will most likely try to continue conventional military operations in Ukraine to hold currently occupied ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 29, 2022 ANALYSISLikely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...
Iran Crisis Update, October 29
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 29, 2022 ANALYSISIRGC Commander Hossein Salami set conditions to violently escalate the suppression of ongoing, anti-regime demonstrations on October 29.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 28, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.
Iran Crisis Update, October 28
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 28, 2022 ANALYSISIranian security personnel fired live ammunition and tear gas at anti-regime demonstrators in Zahedan, Sistan Baluchistan Province on Oct...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros October 27, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, October 27
LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros October 26, 2022 ANALYSISA Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longs...
Iran Crisis Update, October 26
Frederick W. Kagan Brian Carter Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 26, 2022 ANALYSISThe ongoing, anti-regime protests in Iran expanded significantly on October 26, occurring in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces. These pr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 25, 2022 ANALYSISMembers of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...
Iran Crisis Update, October 25
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 25, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 24, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a ...
Iran Crisis Update, October 24
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 24, 2022 ANALYSISSome Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian c...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor October 21, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next seve...
Iran Crisis Update, October 21
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 21, 2022 ANALYSISThe regime’s use of extreme violence against protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province is likely entrenching long-term frustration ag...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl George Barros Riley Bailey Kathryn Tyson Karolina Hird October 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).
Iran Crisis Update, October 20
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 20, 2022 ANALYSISAnti-regime protests continued to subside in extent and scale on October 20 but may increase on October 22 and 26.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor October 19, 2022 ANALYSISRussian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...
Iran Crisis Update, October 19
Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 19, 2022 ANALYSISAnti-regime protests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Many instances of recent pro...
Iran Crisis Update, October 18
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 18, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among the political elite.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine o...
Iran Crisis Update, October 17
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 17, 2022 ANALYSISThe Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began a three-day military exercise along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on October 17 likely t...
Iran Crisis Update, October 16
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles October 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...
Iran Crisis Update, October 15
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 15, 2022 ANALYSISA major fire broke out at the Evin prison in Tehran on October 15, and the regime used live rounds and tear gas against prisoners and nea...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 14, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in...
Iran Crisis Update, October 14
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 14, 2022 ANALYSISThe Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired servicemembers and other affiliated officers to suppress protests...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 13, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, October 13
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 13, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...
Iran Crisis Update, October 12
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 12, 2022 ANALYSISIranian officials continue to ignore protester grievances and are instead emphasizing their readiness to brutally crack down.
Iran Crisis Update, October 11
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 11, 2022 ANALYSISUnconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 10, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Sta...
Iran Crisis Update, October 10
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 10, 2022 ANALYSISThe ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran. There are at least three active b...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko October 09, 2022 ANALYSISThe attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, coupled with recent Russian military failures and partial mobilization, is generating direct criti...
Iran Crisis Update, October 9
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 09, 2022 ANALYSISIran may be preparing to escalate militarily against its foreign adversaries, including the US, in response to the ongoing, anti-regime p...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko October 08, 2022 ANALYSISA large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8.
Iran Crisis Update, October 8
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 08, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime’s rhetorical responses to ongoing anti-regime protests may suggest that senior regime officials are posing for the ben...
Iran Crisis Update, October 7
Frederick W. Kagan Brian Carter Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 07, 2022 ANALYSISRegime disinformation about protester deaths may further stoke anti-regime sentiment and even revitalize anti-regime demonstrations.
Ukraine’s Resilience Transcends the Battlefield
Mark Polyak Frederick W. Kagan October 07, 2022 ANALYSISUkraine has shown in this terrible trial by fire its determination to make itself free and functional. That is an effort worth investing in.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko October 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 06, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, October 6
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 06, 2022 ANALYSISIran may attack the US, Israeli, and/or Saudi targets in retaliation for the role Iranian officials claim those countries have played in ...
Iran Crisis Update, October 5
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 05, 2022 ANALYSISAnti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shia Imam and is a nati...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 04, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...
Iran Crisis Update, October 4
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 04, 2022 ANALYSISUniversity and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in Iran—at least for the moment. Anti-regime ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 03, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sourc...
Iran Crisis Update, October 3
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 03, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko October 02, 2022 ANALYSISThis campaign assessment special edition focuses on dramatic changes in the Russian information space following the Russian defeat around...
Iran Crisis Update, October 2
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 02, 2022 ANALYSISThe continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 01, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russia...
Iran Crisis Update, October 1
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 01, 2022 ANALYSISIranian protesters successfully planned anti-regime demonstrations in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 despite reg...
Iran Crisis Update, September 30
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl September 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 29, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, September 29
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick September 29, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime’s extensive internet and telecommunications censorship is severely limiting the open-source information available on o...
Iran Crisis Update, September 28
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl September 28, 2022 ANALYSISCircumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 28, 2022 ANALYSISRussian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 27, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25
Frederick W. Kagan September 25, 2022 ANALYSISThis campaign assessment special edition focuses on Russian military mobilization efforts. Significant inflections ISW would normally cov...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird September 24, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s declarations about which categories of Russian males will be exempted from partial mobilization ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 23, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Mason Clark Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird September 21, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its fal...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor September 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they will hold...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19
Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 19, 2022 ANALYSISUrgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 18, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and forma...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending agai...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16
Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor September 16, 2022 ANALYSISThe discovery of mass graves and torture chambers in liberated Izyum confirm previous ISW assessments that the Bucha atrocities were embl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15
Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor September 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird September 14, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 13, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the Februa...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 11, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Karolina Hird September 06, 2022 ANALYSISThe International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) descri...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 04, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 01, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 30, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces began striking Russian pontoon ferries across the Dnipro River on August 29, which is consistent with the start of the U...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 29, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian military officials announced the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast on August 29. Ukrainian officials re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 28
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 28, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on August 27 in a reported effort to assist stateless peoples and residents of Donbas...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird August 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 26, 2022 ANALYSISThe International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that elements of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) reconnected to the Ukra...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Karolina Hird August 25, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s August 25 decree to increase the size of the Russian military starting in January 2023 is unlikely to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird August 24, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive opera...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird August 23, 2022 ANALYSISRussian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 22, 2022 ANALYSISRussian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 21, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces’ momentum from territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in late July is likely exhausted, and Russian attacks in east...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol on August ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 19, 2022 ANALYSISRecent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian c...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird August 18, 2022 ANALYSISThere were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in Crimea on August 16. Local report...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 15, 2022 ANALYSISElements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia reportedly refused to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about th...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 13, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces are continuing efforts to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that support Russian forces on the right...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharki...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 11, 2022 ANALYSISThe US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko August 09, 2022 ANALYSISRussian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, b...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson August 08, 2022 ANALYSISWestern and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest n...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 06, 2022 ANALYSISRussian and Ukrainian forces traded accusations of dangerous shelling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on A...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 05, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian officials confirmed that Russia is using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disas...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 01, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukrai...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko July 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are likely prioritizing offensive operations toward Bakhmut and around Donetsk City at the expense of efforts to take Sive...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 29, 2022 ANALYSISA kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28. Ukraine and Russia ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 28, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian grouping in Donetsk Oblast is likely seeking to capitalize on recent marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut by continuing to att...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 26, 2022 ANALYSISRussian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ong...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 25, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitation...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 24, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 23, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 22, 2022 ANALYSISThe United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keepin...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 21, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a few limited and highly localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational tempo is not marke...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 20, 2022 ANALYSISThe current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway but will likely culm...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Karolina Hird July 18, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s July 18 meeting with the commander of the Eastern group of forces Lieutenant General Rustam Mura...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are continuing a measured return from the operational pause and conducted limited ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 16, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian operational pause has concluded on July 16, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause as of July 15.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 13, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Uk...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine.
Iran’s Drone Inventory and Potential Sales to Russia
Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan July 12, 2022 ANALYSISIran has developed an extensive inventory of domestically produced drones of varying capabilities and ranges. It has used some of those ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 10, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are conducting a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine and engaging in operations to set conditions for future offensi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 09, 2022 ANALYSISRussian-backed occupation authorities in Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating t...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko July 08, 2022 ANALYSISLuhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are not conducting an operational pause as of July 8 and are ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced on July 7 that Russian forces in Ukraine are pausing to rest and regain ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 06, 2022 ANALYSISThere were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting ISW’s ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 05, 2022 ANALYSISRussia’s stated objectives in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 04, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Ru...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko July 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychans...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros July 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30
Grace Mappes Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces retreated from the Snake Island on June 30 following a Ukrainian missile and artillery campaign. The Russian Defense Mini...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29
Grace Mappes George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird June 29, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and tha...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 20, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12
Grace Mappes George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird June 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 01, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 31, 2022 ANALYSISMoscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kh...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan May 28, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 25, 2022 ANALYSISSome pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and L...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird May 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 19, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Ob...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 17, 2022 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the front line in Ukraine on May 16.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 14, 2022 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Sive...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 13, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensiv...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of...
Ukraine Shows the Strength of a Free People
Frederick W. Kagan May 09, 2022 ANALYSISIt is our freedom, messy though it is, which we must embrace, as the Ukrainians have done.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 03, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. A significant Ukrainian c...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird May 01, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as ...
How Not to Invade a Nation: Russia’s Attack on Ukraine Is a Case Study in Bad Strategy
Mason Clark Frederick W. Kagan April 29, 2022 ANALYSISRussia’s invasion has come up short for many reasons.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26
Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 26, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces continue to make slow but steady progress south from Izyum and northwest of Rubizhne, but Russian offensive operations els...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23
Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 23, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces continued offensive operations along multiple axes even as they completed moving reinforcements drawn from the retreat fro...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19
Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 19, 2022 ANALYSISRussian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conduc...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16
Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 16, 2022 ANALYSISUkraine’s sinking of the Moskva was a significant event that has likely triggered intensified Russian air and missile attacks in retaliat...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12
George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9
Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 09, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5
Karolina Hird George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 05, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv.
The problem with a neutral Ukraine: Putin is as bad as his word
Frederick W. Kagan April 04, 2022 ANALYSISThe search by the West for “off-ramps” that would allow Russia’s Vladimir Putin to save face while backing out of his unprovoked invasion...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3
Karolina Hird George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 03, 2022 ANALYSISUkraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnip...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 29, 2022 ANALYSISWe now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold thei...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 26, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces continued their unsuccessful efforts to move into positions from which to attack or encircle Kyiv, claims by First Deputy ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark March 25, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25 claiming Russia’s ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 23, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 19, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operatio...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 09, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 08, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 06, 2022 ANALYSISThe military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offe...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 05, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 04, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces continue their focus on encircling Kyiv. The western envelopment remains bogged down but Russian troops have moved more ra...
Putin’s disappointed expectations of easy victory (with Fred Kagan)
Frederick W. Kagan March 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1
Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 01, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the c...
Analyzing Russia’s military advances (with Fred Kagan and Mason Clark)
Mason Clark Frederick W. Kagan February 25, 2022 ANALYSISPutin has changed the world — and the US must adapt or lose
Frederick W. Kagan February 22, 2022 ANALYSISIt takes one to make war, not two. Putin has shown that he is willing to fight to gain what he wants, and what he wants is the destructio...
Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: New Indicators of Imminent Russian Attack
Mason Clark Frederick W. Kagan February 18, 2022 ANALYSISNATO must reinforce its Eastern flank right now
George Barros Frederick W. Kagan January 24, 2022 ANALYSISJoe Biden must abandon bad deal and find new route in Afghanistan
Frederick W. Kagan March 09, 2021 ANALYSISWhy America really needs better conventional forces to deter Iran
Frederick W. Kagan January 01, 2021 ANALYSISIran’s Reserve of Last Resort: Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces Order of Battle
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Marie Donovan January 21, 2020 ANALYSISQassem Soleimani’s death, the prospect of further US-Iranian military escalation, and the reemergence of large protests in Iran in recent...
Iran Escalation Timeline
Jason Zhou Kyra Rauschenbach Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Heras January 10, 2020 ANALYSISAttribution, Intent, and Response in the Abqaiq Attack
Frederick W. Kagan September 25, 2019 ANALYSISThe U.S. should conduct a military strike in response to the Iranian attack on the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia in order to deter ...
Testimony: Confronting the Russian Challenge
Frederick W. Kagan July 16, 2019 ANALYSISRussia poses a significant threat to the United States and its allies for which the West is not ready.
Confronting the Russian Challenge
Frederick W. Kagan Nataliya Bugayova Jennifer Cafarella June 19, 2019 ANALYSISRussia poses a significant threat to the United States and its allies for which the West is not ready.