Frederick W. Kagan
Frederick W. Kagan is the director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). In 2009, he served in Kabul, Afghanistan, as part of General Stanley McChrystal's strategic assessment team, and he returned to Afghanistan in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to conduct research for Generals David Petraeus and John Allen. In July 2011, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen awarded him the Distinguished Public Service Award, the highest honor the Chairman can present to civilians who do not work for the Department of Defense, for his volunteer service in Afghanistan. He is coauthor of the report Defining Success in Afghanistan (AEI and the Institute for the Study of War, 2010) and author of the series of reports Choosing Victory (AEI), which recommended and monitored the US military surge in Iraq. His most recent book is Lessons for a Long War: How America Can Win on New Battlefields (AEI Press, 2010, with Thomas Donnelly). Previously an associate professor of military history at West Point, Dr. Kagan was a contributing editor at the Weekly Standard and has written for Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and other periodicals.
Position | Director |
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov 3 days ago ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 28, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28. The Ukrainian General Staf...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 26, 2023 ANALYSISThe tactical situation in Verbove remains unclear as Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on Sept...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans September 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros September 23, 2023 ANALYSISISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western Zaporizhia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes September 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20.
Ukraine’s Operations in Bakhmut Have Kept Russian Reserves Away from the South
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Daniel Mealie September 17, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey September 16, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 14, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 13, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 12, 2023 ANALYSISRussian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Grace Mappes September 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov September 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on September 2.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans August 30, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 23, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov August 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahe...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 17, 2023 ANALYSIS“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintrod...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 10, 2023 ANALYSISThe Wagner Group continues to maintain a presence at facilities in Belarus and the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russia remains unc...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey August 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two...
How the Ukraine Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed
Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Frederick W. Kagan August 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 02, 2023 ANALYSISA dispute among prominent voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin’s sensitivity to Russian reporting about setback...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 30, 2023 ANALYSISThe lack of Russian milblogger reaction to a Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge represents a notable inflection in Russian reporting ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 29, 2023 ANALYSISSegments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird July 27, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, al...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird July 26, 2023 ANALYSIS>hr/>
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov July 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Pri...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 24, 2023 ANALYSISLikely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Thomas Bergeron Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov George Barros July 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey July 22, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff rep...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward George Barros Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 18, 2023 ANALYSISThe July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to th...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 10, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLO...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 09, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 07, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 06, 2023 ANALYSISBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces are not in Belarus as of...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes July 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front made marginal advances on July 3. The Russia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 28, 2023 ANALYSISContinued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggest...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros June 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reput...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko June 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird June 08, 2023 ANALYSISUkraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider coun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2023 ANALYSISThe destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherso...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 06, 2023 ANALYSISDamage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delt...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 04, 2023 ANALYSISElements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Layne Philipson June 02, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 31, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine fo...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 29, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 28, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 27, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operatio...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian authorities ended the “counterterrorism” operation in Belgorod Oblast and claimed to have defeated the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 22, 2023 ANALYSISElements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 21, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prior...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 17, 2023 ANALYSISRussian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 15, 2023 ANALYSISLeaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the l...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 13, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of t...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 12, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 10, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 08, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 07, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, A...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 05, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anti...
Iran Update, May 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles May 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is seeking to take advantage of political and economic developments in Syria and Iraq to improve the Iranian economy a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Angela Howard April 29, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 27, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 25, 2023 ANALYSISSenior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful U...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes April 24, 2023 ANALYSISRussian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird April 23, 2023 ANALYSISThis report outlines the current Russian order of battle (ORBAT) in Ukraine, assesses the offensive and defensive capabilities of Russian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird April 17, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of t...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros April 15, 2023 ANALYSISReporting from some Western sources that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin called for Russia to end its war against Ukraine is ina...
Iran Update, April 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan James Motamed Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles April 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird George Barros Grace Mappes April 11, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin passed legislation to use tools of digital authoritarianism to digitize and improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses an...
Iran Update, April 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan James Motamed Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 10, 2023 ANALYSISPalestinian militants expanded rocket attacks into Israel from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip to the Golan Heights. Palestinian mili...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko April 10, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian politi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko April 02, 2023 ANALYSISUnknown actors killed Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin in a deliberate and targeted attack during an event in a St. Petersburg bar reporte...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey March 31, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s atte...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 30, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 29, 2023 ANALYSISIranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 29 to review...
Iran Update, March 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Amin Soltani March 28, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Grace Mappes March 27, 2023 ANALYSISIran Update, March 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles March 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko March 23, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...
Iran Update, March 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld March 23, 2023 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei has trapped the Iranian regime by focusing public and government attention on improving the economy—an issue ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...
Iran Update, March 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 21, 2023 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei shut down intra-regime debates about political reform to address protester grievances and instead confined th...
Iran Update, March 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 20, 2023 ANALYSISIranian security leaders have announced in recent days that they will resume enforcing the mandatory hijab law with a confrontational app...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Angela Howard Riley Bailey March 20, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey March 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 17, 2023 ANALYSISChinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...
Iran Update, March 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 16, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 15, 2023 ANALYSISThe overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...
Iran Update, March 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld March 15, 2023 ANALYSISHardline officials are promoting conservative reforms, which will likely generate additional calls for political change in Iran. Hardline...
Iran Update, March 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 14, 2023 ANALYSISChina has three roads to Taiwan: The US must block them all
Dan Blumenthal Frederick W. Kagan March 13, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko March 12, 2023 ANALYSISThe conflict between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely reached its climax against...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fig...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 09, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...
Iran Update, March 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 09, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime likely assesses that it is losing its cultural campaign for Iranian women. Iranian women are reportedly defying the ma...
Iran Update, March 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani March 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.
Iran Update, March 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick March 06, 2023 ANALYSISOver 110 separate student poisonings occurred throughout Iran on March 6.[i] Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They ar...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes March 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...
Iran Update, March 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani March 05, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime has permitted the country-wide, coordinated attacks on Iranian schoolgirls to escalate.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut bu...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fig...
Iran Update, March 2, 2023
Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld March 02, 2023 ANALYSISIran Update, March 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick March 01, 2023 ANALYSISCTP assesses with moderate confidence that the Iranian regime is tolerating a country-wide, coordinated campaign to poison Iranian school...
Iran Update, February 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld February 28, 2023 ANALYSISIran Update, February 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl February 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko February 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 25, 2023 ANALYSISUK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 24, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 23, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...
Iran Update, February 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko February 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on Februar...
Iran Update, February 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 22, 2023 ANALYSISGrowing elements of the regime are publicly recognizing that the Islamic Republic has lost the confidence of its people as Iran faces a p...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions fo...
Iran Update, February 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 21, 2023 ANALYSISThe Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what pattern of anti-regime activity will charact...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird February 19, 2023 ANALYSISThe major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to...
Iran Update, February 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld February 17, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 16, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...
Iran Update, February 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 16, 2023 ANALYSISIran and its proxies may be preparing for a major effort with military elements in northern Syria. Senior officers from the IRGC Quds For...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...
Iran Update, February 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 15, 2023 ANALYSISProtest coordinators have likely strengthened their organizational capabilities and internal infrastructure ahead of calls for anti-regim...
Iran Update February 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Jonathan Baumel Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird February 14, 2023 ANALYSISMoscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.
Iran Update, February 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 13, 2023 ANALYSISThe IRGC Quds Force is likely coordinating a large-scale effort to consolidate its control and influence over critical transportation rou...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko February 12, 2023 ANALYSISRussia has partially regained the ability to conduct successful information campaigns in support of strategic objectives and even discret...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...
Iran Update, February 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 09, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a re...
Iran Update, February 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 09, 2023 ANALYSISProminent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid escalated rhetorically against the regime on February 9, expressing support for reformist call...
Iran Update, February 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld February 08, 2023 ANALYSISIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Aleppo City, Syria on February ...
Iran Update, February 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...
Iran Update, February 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 06, 2023 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken several public-facing measures in recent days likely to alleviate public frustrations toward the re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...
Iran Crisis Update, February 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is in a steady pattern of escalation with prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, which risks stoking sectarian te...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...
Iran Crisis Update, February 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 02, 2023 ANALYSISA group of pragmatic hardliners are continuing to cohere around calls for the regime to reconcile with its alienated population in the wa...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 01, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...
Iran Crisis Update, February 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 01, 2023 ANALYSISIranian officials across the political spectrum are cohering around different lessons the regime should draw from the protest movement an...
Iran Crisis Update, January 31, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl January 31, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kitaneh Fitzpatrick George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 30, 2023 ANALYSISWestern, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...
Iran Crisis Update, January 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 30, 2023 ANALYSISIsraeli combat aircraft conducted three airstrikes against likely Iran-backed militants in eastern Syria on January 29 and January 30. Is...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kimberly Kagan Frederick W. Kagan January 29, 2023 ANALYSISThis report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...
Iran Crisis Update, January 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 29, 2023 ANALYSISIsrael conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28, according to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 28, 2023 ANALYSISConventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 27, 2023 ANALYSISKremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...
Iran Crisis Update, January 27, 2023
Anya Caraiani Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 27, 2023 ANALYSISAn armed individual shot and killed the security chief of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran and injured two guards on January 27. The gun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023
Nicole Wolkov Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.
Iran Crisis Update, January 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld January 26, 2023 ANALYSISOngoing disruptions to Iran’s energy supplies may be generating severe air pollution.
Iran Crisis Update, January 25, 2023
Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 24, 2023 ANALYSISA coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...
Iran Crisis Update, January 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 24, 2023 ANALYSISSyrian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ali Mahmoud Abbas discussed deepening military cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Te...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Karolina Hird January 23, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...
Iran Crisis Update, January 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 23, 2023 ANALYSISProtest activity in Iran increased on January 23, particularly among current petrochemical employees and retired education and telecommun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko January 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 21, 2023 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Uk...
Iran Crisis Update, January 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl January 20, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey George Barros January 19, 2023 ANALYSISSenior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...
Iran Crisis Update, January 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 19, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is likely escalating against prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid. Social media users continued to document a he...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey January 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...
Iran Crisis Update, January 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 18, 2023 ANALYSISProtest activity in Iran may increase on January 19-20. Protest organizers have issued widespread calls for demonstrations on these days....
Iran Crisis Update, January 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 17, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 07, 2023 ANALYSISRecent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources. Even at t...
Iran Crisis Update, January 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 07, 2023 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to empower hardline security figures to enforce his uncompromising position toward the protests and...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 06, 2023 ANALYSISRussian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to U...
Iran Crisis Update, January 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 06, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime failed to suppress demonstrations in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on January 6. Protesters participated in...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 05, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...
Iran Crisis Update, January 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles January 05, 2023 ANALYSISRegime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey January 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...
Iran Crisis Update, January 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 04, 2023 ANALYSISProtester umbrella organizations appear to disagree on the timing of the upcoming planned protests.
Iran Crisis Update, January 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe organizational structure of the protest movement is continuing to evolve and morph as its leaders try to cohere the movement.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...
Iran Crisis Update, January 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 02, 2023 ANALYSISThe Iranian state security services have intensified their protest crackdown and social oppression in recent days.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey December 31, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 31
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 31, 2022 ANALYSISRecent comments from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders reflect the ongoing divisions within the regime, and especially th...
Iran Crisis Update, December 30
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 30, 2022 ANALYSISProminent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid is likely trying to balance his political positions to maximize his domestic support and achie...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces targeted Kyiv using Iranian-made drones on the night of December 29 to 30, a continuation of an increased pace of drone at...
Iran Crisis Update, December 29
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 29, 2022 ANALYSISFunerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters are continuing to sustain anti-regime activity throughout Iran as demonstrati...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angela Howard December 29, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian of...
Iran Crisis Update, December 28
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 28, 2022 ANALYSISIranian security officials and entities attempted to declare an end to protest activity on December 28 despite ongoing acts of anti-regim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros December 28, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Madison Williams George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 27, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, December 27
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 26, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.
Iran Crisis Update, December 26
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 26, 2022 ANALYSISProtest coordinators and organizations are encouraging citizens to demonstrate more regularly and spontaneously rather than awaiting plan...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 24, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 24
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Dana Alexander Gray Nicholas Carl December 24, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian Supreme Court upheld the death sentence of 22-year-old protester Mohammad Ghobadlou on December 24 after rejecting his appeal.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 23, 2022 ANALYSISMoscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aim...
Iran Crisis Update, December 23
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 23, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is likely in a mounting confrontation with citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan Province. Izeh has seen weeks of violence since...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 22, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...
Iran Crisis Update, December 22
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 22, 2022 ANALYSISSocial media accounts reported that Iranian security forces have begun violently killing and mass arresting citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan P...
Iran Crisis Update, December 21
Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 21, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 20, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, December 20
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 19, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 19
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 19, 2022 ANALYSISSome protest coordinators and organizations are trying to reclaim religion from the regime, essentially arguing that one can be devoutly ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 18
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 18, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei and significant parts of his inner circle are continuing to misdiagnose the core problems driving the ongoing...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird December 18, 2022 ANALYSISThis report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeti...
Iran Crisis Update, December 17
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 17, 2022 ANALYSISIranian security personnel clashed with prisoners in Karaj, Alborz Province on December 17, reportedly killing one and injuring up to 100...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 17, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...
Iran Crisis Update, December 16
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 16, 2022 ANALYSISProtest organizations and coordinators are increasingly promoting consistent and sustainable acts of anti-regime defiance as the Mahsa Am...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird December 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based o...
Iran Crisis Update, December 15
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 15, 2022 ANALYSISThe Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is likely conducting an information operation to discredit the neighborhood youth protest organiza...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 14, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...
Iran Crisis Update, December 14
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 14, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian economy appears to be entering a period of potentially significant disruption.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird December 13, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.
Iran Crisis Update, December 13
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 13, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime has replaced key clerics responsible for indoctrinating a significant portion of the security forces, possibly to impr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...
Iran Crisis Update, December 11
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl December 11, 2022 ANALYSISSome Iranian political and religious leaders are debating the regime’s use of the death penalty against arrested protesters.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey December 11, 2022 ANALYSISRussian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s i...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 10, 2022 ANALYSISAn unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets with...
Iran Crisis Update, December 10
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 10, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime is using protester executions to instill terror among the population.
Iran Crisis Update, December 9
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 09, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 08, 2022 ANALYSISGerman Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...
Iran Crisis Update, December 8
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 08, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime executed a protester on December 8 for the first time since the Mahsa Amini protests began.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Pre...
Iran Crisis Update, December 7
Paul Stanley Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 07, 2022 ANALYSISAnti-regime strikes and demonstrations sustained momentum on December 7 as nation-wide calls to protest entered their third and final day...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard December 06, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concer...
Iran Crisis Update, December 6
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 06, 2022 ANALYSISCountrywide strikes continued throughout Iran on December 6.
Iran Crisis Update, December 5
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 05, 2022 ANALYSISProtest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly on December 5—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizat...
Iran Crisis Update, December 4
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 04, 2022 ANALYSISWestern media inaccurately reported that the Iranian regime abolished its morality patrol on December 4.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros December 04, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3
George Barros Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 03, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, December 3
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko December 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...
Iran Crisis Update, December 2
Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl December 02, 2022 ANALYSISThe Mashhad Neighborhood Youth issued further instructions for the planned protests on December 5-7. The Mashhad group called for street ...
The Long-Term Risks of a Premature Ceasefire in Ukraine
Frederick W. Kagan December 02, 2022 ANALYSISAmerican policymakers today must focus on the imperative of resolving the current conflict in ways that do not set conditions for renewed...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey December 01, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against U...
Iran Crisis Update, December 1
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 01, 2022 ANALYSISProtesters in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province rhetorically defended prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid against the regim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian efforts around Bakhmut indicate that Russian forces have fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns conc...
Iran Crisis Update, November 30
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 30, 2022 ANALYSISProtest activity may increase on December 5-7. The recent calls for protests may highlight the increasing organization and sophistication...
Iran Crisis Update, November 29
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 29, 2022 ANALYSISSome Iranian protesters celebrated the US victory over Iran in the World Cup on November 29.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird November 28, 2022 ANALYSISRecent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...
Iran Crisis Update, November 28
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 28, 2022 ANALYSISSocial media users circulated calls for protests following the US-Iran world cup match on November 29 although it is unclear to what exte...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes November 27, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in east...
Iran Crisis Update, November 27
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 27, 2022 ANALYSISIranian protest organization groups may be reinforcing their organizational capabilities as protest activity entered a relative lull over...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 26, 2022 ANALYSISThe overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to inc...
Iran Crisis Update, November 26
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 26, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests on November 26.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 25, 2022 ANALYSISReports of poorly staffed, provisioned, and supplied Russian mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space, exposing the...
Iran Crisis Update, November 25
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 25, 2022 ANALYSISProtests continued but did not surge across Iran on November 24 and 25 despite calls for protests.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 23, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...
Iran Crisis Update, November 23
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 23, 2022 ANALYSISProtest activity and strikes will likely increase in the coming days. Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide ...
The U.S. Should Continue Supporting Ukraine—Americans Want To
Mark Polyak Frederick W. Kagan November 23, 2022 ANALYSISAmericans can see past Russia’s bluster and threats to the heart of the matter—Ukraine needs our help and we need to help Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 22, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...
Iran Crisis Update, November 21
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 21, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 21, 2022 ANALYSISTwo days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20
Grace Mappes Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko November 20, 2022 ANALYSISThis report discusses the rising influence of the milblogger (military correspondent or voenkor) community in Russia despite its increasi...
Iran Crisis Update, November 20
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 20, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei likely issued an unpublished directive to violently suppress anti-regime protests within the past f...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 19, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, November 19
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles November 19, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 18, 2022 ANALYSISRussian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall conscription cycle is underway, likely further f...
Iran Crisis Update, November 18
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 18, 2022 ANALYSISThe ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the Iranian security establishment.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on November 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that...
The Case Against Negotiations with Russia
Frederick W. Kagan November 17, 2022 ANALYSISNegotiations cannot end the Russian war against Ukraine; they can only pause it.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.
Iran Crisis Update, November 16
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 16, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to discourage prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid from publicly criticizing the regime have ...
Iran Crisis Update, November 15
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 14, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to em...
Iran Crisis Update, November 14
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 14, 2022 ANALYSISProtest activity and strikes will likely increase from November 15 to 17. Protest coordinators and organizers have reiterated their calls...
Iran Crisis Update, November 13
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 13, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely escalating against prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, who has become increasingl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13
Frederick W. Kagan November 13, 2022 ANALYSISThis report discusses the likely evolution of the war following Ukraine’s operational success in regaining control of western Kherson Obl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...
Iran Crisis Update, November 12
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 12, 2022 ANALYSISProtest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide demonstrations from November 15 to 17 to commemorate the three-year an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 11, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, November 11
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 11, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, November 10
LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 10, 2022 ANALYSISThe ongoing protests are creating fractures within the Iranian hardliner camp. Some parliamentarians representing restive border regions ...
Iran Crisis Update, November 9
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl November 09, 2022 ANALYSISIran and its proxies may attack US positions in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian convoy in eastern...
Iran Crisis Update, November 8
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Karolina Hird Nicholas Carl November 08, 2022 ANALYSISProtests may increase in the coming days to commemorate the regime’s brutal crackdown in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on Sept...
Iran Crisis Update, November 7
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Kathryn Tyson Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 07, 2022 ANALYSISSome elements of the Iranian regime have suggested political reform to assuage protesters’ frustrations, although such reform is highly u...
Iran Crisis Update, November 6
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 06, 2022 ANALYSISThe regime continued linking the ongoing protests with terrorism on November 6 as part of an information operation to delegitimize protes...
Iran Crisis Update, November 5
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Dana Alexander Gray November 05, 2022 ANALYSISProminent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid may begin regularly instigating protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province rather tha...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 05, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart the Donetsk offensive but will likely still fail to achieve o...
Iran Crisis Update, November 4
Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 04, 2022 ANALYSISParents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will ...
Iran Crisis Update, November 3
LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 03, 2022 ANALYSISProtesters coordinated extensively to respond to the regime crackdown in Karaj, possibly reflecting growing organization within the movem...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...
Iran Crisis Update, November 2
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 02, 2022 ANALYSISIran is signaling its readiness to attack Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil ostensibly in retaliation for the Shiraz terror attack but prim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 01, 2022 ANALYSISIran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...
Iran Crisis Update, November 1
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 01, 2022 ANALYSISAmerican and Saudi officials have warned of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil, according to the Wall Street J...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 31, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on Octob...
Iran Crisis Update, October 31
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 31, 2022 ANALYSISThe regime has begun indicting and sentencing arrested protesters as part of the increasingly harsh and uncompromising stance that the re...
Iran Crisis Update, October 30
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 30, 2022 ANALYSISThe regime is escalating its protest crackdown in a way that could fuel an enduring and increasingly violent uprising against the politic...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30
Frederick W. Kagan October 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin will most likely try to continue conventional military operations in Ukraine to hold currently occupied ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 29, 2022 ANALYSISLikely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...
Iran Crisis Update, October 29
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 29, 2022 ANALYSISIRGC Commander Hossein Salami set conditions to violently escalate the suppression of ongoing, anti-regime demonstrations on October 29.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 28, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.
Iran Crisis Update, October 28
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 28, 2022 ANALYSISIranian security personnel fired live ammunition and tear gas at anti-regime demonstrators in Zahedan, Sistan Baluchistan Province on Oct...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros October 27, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, October 27
LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros October 26, 2022 ANALYSISA Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longs...
Iran Crisis Update, October 26
Frederick W. Kagan Brian Carter Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 26, 2022 ANALYSISThe ongoing, anti-regime protests in Iran expanded significantly on October 26, occurring in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces. These pr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 25, 2022 ANALYSISMembers of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...
Iran Crisis Update, October 25
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 25, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 24, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a ...
Iran Crisis Update, October 24
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 24, 2022 ANALYSISSome Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian c...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor October 21, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next seve...
Iran Crisis Update, October 21
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 21, 2022 ANALYSISThe regime’s use of extreme violence against protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province is likely entrenching long-term frustration ag...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl George Barros Riley Bailey Kathryn Tyson Karolina Hird October 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).
Iran Crisis Update, October 20
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 20, 2022 ANALYSISAnti-regime protests continued to subside in extent and scale on October 20 but may increase on October 22 and 26.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor October 19, 2022 ANALYSISRussian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...
Iran Crisis Update, October 19
Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 19, 2022 ANALYSISAnti-regime protests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Many instances of recent pro...
Iran Crisis Update, October 18
Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 18, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among the political elite.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine o...
Iran Crisis Update, October 17
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 17, 2022 ANALYSISThe Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began a three-day military exercise along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on October 17 likely t...
Iran Crisis Update, October 16
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles October 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...
Iran Crisis Update, October 15
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 15, 2022 ANALYSISA major fire broke out at the Evin prison in Tehran on October 15, and the regime used live rounds and tear gas against prisoners and nea...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 14, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in...
Iran Crisis Update, October 14
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 14, 2022 ANALYSISThe Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired servicemembers and other affiliated officers to suppress protests...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 13, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, October 13
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 13, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...
Iran Crisis Update, October 12
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 12, 2022 ANALYSISIranian officials continue to ignore protester grievances and are instead emphasizing their readiness to brutally crack down.
Iran Crisis Update, October 11
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 11, 2022 ANALYSISUnconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 10, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Sta...
Iran Crisis Update, October 10
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 10, 2022 ANALYSISThe ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran. There are at least three active b...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko October 09, 2022 ANALYSISThe attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, coupled with recent Russian military failures and partial mobilization, is generating direct criti...
Iran Crisis Update, October 9
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 09, 2022 ANALYSISIran may be preparing to escalate militarily against its foreign adversaries, including the US, in response to the ongoing, anti-regime p...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko October 08, 2022 ANALYSISA large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8.
Iran Crisis Update, October 8
Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 08, 2022 ANALYSISThe Iranian regime’s rhetorical responses to ongoing anti-regime protests may suggest that senior regime officials are posing for the ben...
Iran Crisis Update, October 7
Frederick W. Kagan Brian Carter Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 07, 2022 ANALYSISRegime disinformation about protester deaths may further stoke anti-regime sentiment and even revitalize anti-regime demonstrations.
Ukraine’s Resilience Transcends the Battlefield
Mark Polyak Frederick W. Kagan October 07, 2022 ANALYSISUkraine has shown in this terrible trial by fire its determination to make itself free and functional. That is an effort worth investing in.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko October 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 06, 2022 ANALYSISIran Crisis Update, October 6
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 06, 2022 ANALYSISIran may attack the US, Israeli, and/or Saudi targets in retaliation for the role Iranian officials claim those countries have played in ...
Iran Crisis Update, October 5
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 05, 2022 ANALYSISAnti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shia Imam and is a nati...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 04, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...
Iran Crisis Update, October 4
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 04, 2022 ANALYSISUniversity and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in Iran—at least for the moment. Anti-regime ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 03, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sourc...
Iran Crisis Update, October 3
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 03, 2022 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko October 02, 2022 ANALYSISThis campaign assessment special edition focuses on dramatic changes in the Russian information space following the Russian defeat around...
Iran Crisis Update, October 2
Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 02, 2022 ANALYSISThe continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to ...