Ukraine Invasion Updates

Full Story >This page collects the Critical Threats Project (CTP) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) updates on the invasion of Ukraine.

Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories

Full Story >This report presents five different scenarios that could emerge in a post-Khamenei Iran.

By Kitaneh Fitzpatrick & Nicholas Carl

What Russia’s Failed Coercion of Transnistria Means for the Annexation of Occupied Territory in Ukraine

Full Story >The Kremlin’s failure to coerce Transnistrian leadership could be part of the dynamic, along with recent Ukrainian battlefield successes, driving Moscow to annex occupied territory in Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion Updates

Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories

What Russia’s Failed Coercion of Transnistria Means for the Annexation of Occupied Territory in Ukraine

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20

Critical Threats Project Maps

Africa File: Clan Uprising Bolsters anti–al Shabaab Offensive in Central Somalia

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17

Al Shabaab’s Area of Operations

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14

The State of al Qaeda and ISIS Around the World

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12

Amid Yemen’s Truce, al Qaeda Threatens to Return

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7

The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5

Africa File: Hayat Hotel Siege Challenges Somali Federal Government’s Counterterrorism Strategy

Taliban Struggles to Contain Afghan National Resistance Front

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

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Russia and Iran double down on their strategic partnership

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21

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Iranian Proxies May Attack US in Response to Iraqi Political Crisis

What Zawahiri’s Death Means for al Qaeda

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31

Africa File: Al Shabaab Attacks Ethiopia

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30

Taliban Supreme Leader Uses Gathering of Religious Leaders to Consolidate Power

Technical specifications and historic usage of Iranian drones possibly provided to Russia

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23