Emily Estelle

Chaos in Sudan and the rest of North Africa threatens all of us

The popular unrest that dislodged Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir and Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is part of a wa...

Al Qaeda and the Islamic State Will Be the Winners of the Libyan Civil War

The latest bout of Libya’s multi-year civil war is creating conditions that will allow Islamic State and al Qaeda-linked militants to reg...

Algeria’s Future: What Follows Bouteflika?

Algeria is at a crossroads following the resignation of longtime president Abdelaziz Bouteflika. The best-case scenario is far from the m...

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 29, 2019

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 28, 2019

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 27, 2019

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 26, 2019

The U.S. is handing over the counterterrorism mission in West Africa to local partners. But to some, those partners are worse than the terrorists

The travails of tribesmen in places like Mali and Burkina Faso feel like drops in the ocean of the world’s troubles. They are not. These ...

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 25, 2019

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 22, 2019

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 21, 2019

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 20, 2019

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 19, 2019

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 18, 2019

In Algeria, Hope for the Best but Prepare for the Worst

Algerians are taking to the streets to protest their ailing president’s run for a fifth term. Enthusiasts have labeled the uprising the l...

Gulf of Aden Security Review: December 26, 2018

The Islamic State is not defeated in Syria. Or anywhere else. Look at Africa.

The Islamic State is not defeated in Syria, as the Trump administration asserted last week. The Islamic State is also alive and well in A...

The Salafi-Jihadi Base in the Sahel: December 2018

Affiliations, including shared purposes, histories, and personal relationships, create the Salafi-jihadi base in the Sahel. These affilia...

Libya’s Migrant Crisis Isn’t Just a European Problem

Since the ouster of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, successive U.S. administrations have watched Libya’s continuing collapse, believing that the...

ISIS Affiliate Expands in the Sahel

The expansion of an Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) affiliate in the Sahel demonstrates that current U.S. and European counterte...

Testimony: Ethiopia’s Strategic Importance: US National Security Interests at Risk in the Horn of Africa

The potential for Ethiopia to destabilize persists. It faces a rapid political transition and ethnic conflict across multiple regions, bo...

Gulf of Aden Security Review - August 20, 2018

Gulf of Aden Security Review - August 17, 2018

Gulf of Aden Security Review - August 16, 2018

Gulf of Aden Security Review - August 14, 2018

Gulf of Aden Security Review - August 13, 2018

Warning Update: Threats to Mali’s Elections Reveal Weakness of U.S. Security Policy in West Africa

The U.S. has core security interests at stake in the Sahel, many of which have roots in Mali

America Ignores Africa to Its Peril

Washington needs to counter the spread of terrorists and rival powers before it's too late.

Warning Update: Oil Battle Returns Libya to the Brink

A strategy reliant on elite agreements and elections will not succeed in an environment in which armed groups can seize power at will.

Libya Update: Exit the General?

The incapacitation or death of Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar could change the balance of power in the country.

Gulf of Aden Security Review - April 11, 2018

Seven years after the revolution, America is still wrong about Libya

Seven years after Libya’s revolution, the country is a failed state with a humanitarian crisis and a serious threat to US national security.

Libya Faces Crossroads Seven Years after Revolution

Al Shabaab Persists in Somalia

February 9 marks the sixth anniversary of al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri’s formal recognition of al Shabaab as an al Qaeda affiliate. Th...

Tunisia Faces Crossroads as Protests Wane

Protests waned following the anniversary of Tunisia’s revolution, leaving the country at a critical juncture between progress and instabi...

Warning Update: Economic Protests Rattle Tunisia on the Anniversary of Revolution

Widespread economic protests erupted across Tunisia and may grow into persistent civil unrest, destabilizing the Tunisian state and provi...

2018 Forecast: U.S. Faces Converging Threats

CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, the...

Gulf of Aden Security Review - January 5, 2018

Gulf of Aden Security Review - January 4, 2018

Gulf of Aden Security Review - January 3, 2018

Warning Update: Power Struggles Rattle Libya Peace Process

Escalating national and municipal power struggles in Libya are undermining the UN peace process and sidelining moderate factions, setting...

AQIM and ISIS in Tunisia: Latent Threats

Salafi-jihadi groups pose low but growing threat to the stability of the Tunisian state.

Fighting Forces in Libya: December 2017

ISIS is rebuilding its military power and establishing a safe haven in central Libya as Libyan factions focus on securing their political...

Update and Assessment: November 29, 2017

CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, the...

Update and Assessment: November 8, 2017

CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, the...

A Strategy for Success in Libya

America needs a new policy in Libya. The current approach is failing and will likely leave a permanent safe haven for ISIS and al Qaeda o...

America's counterterror strategy must be fixed starting with Libya

The General’s Trap in Libya

The U.S. is falling into a trap in Libya. The Trump administration may yield to the temptation to back a would-be strongman, Field Marsha...

Warning Update: Evolving Protests Could Destabilize Morocco

Gulf of Aden Security Review - July 28, 2017

Fighting Forces in Libya: July 2017

The expansion of armed conflict into southwestern Libya has strengthened a faction that may drive support toward Salafi-jihadi groups.

Warning Update: Feared return of the Qaddafi regime will galvanize Salafi-jihadi groups in Libya

A Libyan militia released Saif al Islam al Qaddafi, the heir apparent of deceased Libyan dictator Muammar al Qaddafi, on June 9. The free...

Gulf of Aden Security Review - May 15, 2017

Gulf of Aden Security Review - May 10, 2017

Gulf of Aden Security Review - May 9, 2017

Warning Update: Iran's Hybrid Warfare in Yemen

Gulf of Aden Security Review - March 16, 2017

Fighting Forces in Libya: March 2017

Ignoring History: America's Losing Strategy in Libya

The U.S. is pursuing the wrong objectives with the wrong strategy in Libya. We have tried to neutralize the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda...

Fighting Forces in Libya: January 2017

U.S.-backed Libyan partners are prioritizing the protection of their interests in Libya's ongoing civil war over the fight against Salafi...

A New ISIS Branch in the Sahel?

ISIS informally recognized a new branch operating in the Sahel region of West Africa on October 30, 2016. The group had been operating un...

Fighting Forces in Libya: October 2016

Escalating competition among Libyan factions for control of state institutions and resources will diminish the U.S. counterterrorism part...

Iranian involvement in missile attacks on the USS Mason

Iran almost certainly played a role in the missile attacks against the USS Mason near the Bab al Mandab Strait on October 9 and October 1...

Escalation in the Red Sea: Yemen's Civil War, Iran, and Saudi Arabia

The deliberate targeting of U.S. Navy vessels from al Houthi-Saleh-controlled territory is a significant inflection in the Red Sea and a ...

Warning Update: Escalating Protests Threaten Instability in Tunisia

Economic protests resembling those that sparked the 2010 Jasmine Revolution are spreading throughout Tunisia and may grow into nationwide...

ISIS Loses Headquarters in Sirte, Libya

U.S.-backed forces in Libya may declare victory over the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Sirte this week, but a victory over ...

U.S. Counter-ISIS Air Campaign Expands to Sirte

American military support for the Government of National Accord in Libya, in the absence of a political resolution in the country, risks ...

In Libya, the US is Playing Whack-A-Mole with Terror

CIA Director John Brennan is right, and Secretary of State John Kerry is wrong. The progress being touted by the Obama Administration aga...

GNA-Allied Forces Seize Momentum against ISIS in Sirte

The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) is losing the battle for Sirte, its stronghold on the central Libyan coast since early 2015....

AQIM and ISIS in Algeria: Competing Campaigns

The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb are competing to be the dominant Salafi-jihadi group in Algeria.

ISIS's Courses of Action - Out of Sirte

ISIS is laying the groundwork to abandon Sirte and will then pursue an alternate course of action to continue its campaign in North Afric...

Desknote: ISIS's Tunisian attack cell in Libya

ISIS is maintaining a cell near Sabratha, Libya to conduct attacks into Tunisia. This cell is threatening the last, fragile success story...

Backgrounder: Fighting Forces in Libya

Libya is a safe-haven for the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), al Qaeda, and other Salafi-jihadi groups. These groups use territ...

ISIS's Campaign in Libya: January 4-February 19, 2016

ISIS is executing a sophisticated, multi-front campaign against Libya's oil facilities, demonstrating the organization's growing capabili...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 30

Russia may be seeking to play a more high-profile role in a settlement in Yemen as the UN-led peace process falters and fighting continues.

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 18

Combatants on both sides of the conflict in Yemen continued offensive actions despite the ceasefire, leading the pro-al Houthi delegates ...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 14

The Yemen ceasefire began at 9:00 PM GMT on Monday, December 14, but it remains tenuous following an al Houthi-Saleh rocket attack on a c...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 10

A former Guantanamo detainee resurfaced in Yemen as an al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader and spokesman.

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 7

Growing instability in Aden presents an increasing challenge for the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government under President Abdu R...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 4

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants are taking control of key cities in Abyan governorate, reconstituting its presence in ...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: December 2

Pro-al Houthi forces launched their first large-scale ground assault on the Saudi-Yemeni border, signaling an inflection that may incite ...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: November 24

Both al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) are exploiting Yemen's ongoing security va...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: November 18

The Saudi-led coalition is beginning to shift from combat operations to stabilization operations, focused specifically on Aden and its im...

Network Graph of ISIS's Claimed Attacks in Paris

ISIS's claimed attacks in Paris on November 13 mark the organization's most sophisticated assault in the West to date. This interactive g...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: November 10

Yemeni stakeholders appear to be making preparations to engage seriously in UN-led peace talks in Geneva, though both sides continue to f...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: November 5

The frontlines in Yemen remain fixed even as fighting escalates in buildup to proposed UN-led peace talks. The security conditions are ex...

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: October 23

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is taking control of more territory in Yemen, both inside and outside of active conflict zones.

2015 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: October 16

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is increasingly embedding itself alongside anti-al Houthi militias in central Yemen, expanding i...