Karolina Hird

324 Results

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans 2 days ago ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird September 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey September 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird September 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Grace Mappes September 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Karolina Hird September 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird September 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in wes...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Grace Mappes September 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luh...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the w...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Karolina Hird August 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

How the Ukraine Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed

Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Frederick W. Kagan August 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

The situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

A dispute among prominent voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin’s sensitivity to Russian reporting about setback...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2023

Mason Clark Annika Ganzeveld Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird August 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submers...

Iran Update, July 31, 2023

Nicholas Carl Karolina Hird Johanna Moore July 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

The lack of Russian milblogger reaction to a Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge represents a notable inflection in Russian reporting ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird July 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, al...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird July 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov July 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Pri...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes July 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than break...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLO...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, July 5, 2023

Karolina Hird Peter Mills Liam Karr Kathryn Tyson Brian Carter July 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iraq and Syria. ISIS conducted three attacks in Iraq near a border crossing in Saudi Arabia, possibly signaling the group’s intent to cha...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Wagner Will Remain in Africa

Liam Karr Karolina Hird July 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Wagner Group will continue operating in Africa following the group’s armed rebellion and is very unlikely to decrease its activity on...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes July 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front made marginal advances on July 3. The Russia...

Iran Update, June 28, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Karolina Hird Johanna Moore June 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian leadership met with Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework leadership in Tehran to discuss forming political coalitions during the wee...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Continued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggest...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s Ju...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minist...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird June 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made gains on June 14.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 10.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird June 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider coun...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherso...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Layne Philipson June 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on May 25 that the Wagner Group began handing over its positions in Bakhmut to the Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukraini...

Iran Update, May 16, 2023

Nicholas Carl Karolina Hird Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri May 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen “Akhmat” troop...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes April 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird April 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

This report outlines the current Russian order of battle (ORBAT) in Ukraine, assesses the offensive and defensive capabilities of Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird April 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros April 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Reporting from some Western sources that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin called for Russia to end its war against Ukraine is ina...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird George Barros Grace Mappes April 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin passed legislation to use tools of digital authoritarianism to digitize and improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko April 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian politi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird April 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko April 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey March 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s atte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 29 to review...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Grace Mappes March 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Angela Howard Riley Bailey March 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 13, 2023

Nicholas Carl Karolina Hird Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani March 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fig...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

US intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Mold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut bu...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fig...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

George Barros Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko March 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions fo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird February 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird George Barros Riley Bailey February 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros February 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird February 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kitaneh Fitzpatrick George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023

Nicole Wolkov Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Karolina Hird January 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Uk...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Layne Philipson George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros January 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12

Mason Clark Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Madison Williams Riley Bailey January 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2023

Mason Clark Katherine Lawlor George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) and Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Recent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources. Even at t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey January 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces targeted Kyiv using Iranian-made drones on the night of December 29 to 30, a continuation of an increased pace of drone at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angela Howard December 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros December 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird December 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

This report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird December 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird December 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets with...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Pre...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard December 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concer...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros December 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3

George Barros Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian efforts around Bakhmut indicate that Russian forces have fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns conc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Angela Howard Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes November 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird November 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Recent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

The overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to inc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Reports of poorly staffed, provisioned, and supplied Russian mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space, exposing the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Two days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall conscription cycle is underway, likely further f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on November 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to em...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9

Mason Clark Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the eas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8

Mason Clark Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian state-run outlet Nour News Agency reported that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7

Mason Clark Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry on Novembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5

Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird November 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the co...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on Octob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros October 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros October 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

A Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longs...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Members of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl George Barros Riley Bailey Kathryn Tyson Karolina Hird October 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor October 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18

Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sourc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird September 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s declarations about which categories of Russian males will be exempted from partial mobilization ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Mason Clark Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird September 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its fal...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor September 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they will hold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19

Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird September 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the Februa...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird September 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Karolina Hird September 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) descri...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5

Mason Clark Angela Howard Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3

Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Angela Howard Karolina Hird September 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials directly stated that the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive is a methodical operation to intentionally degrade Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his false framing of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a defensive operation to prot...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces began striking Russian pontoon ferries across the Dnipro River on August 29, which is consistent with the start of the U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird August 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that elements of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) reconnected to the Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Karolina Hird August 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 25 decree to increase the size of the Russian military starting in January 2023 is unlikely to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird August 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive opera...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird August 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird August 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that support Russian forces on the right...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharki...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

The US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Angela Howard Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko August 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, b...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson August 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest n...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian forces traded accusations of dangerous shelling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russia is using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson July 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28. Ukraine and Russia ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian grouping in Donetsk Oblast is likely seeking to capitalize on recent marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut by continuing to att...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ong...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keepin...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a few limited and highly localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational tempo is not marke...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

The current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway but will likely culm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor George Barros Karolina Hird July 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Karolina Hird July 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s July 18 meeting with the commander of the Eastern group of forces Lieutenant General Rustam Mura...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing a measured return from the operational pause and conducted limited ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian operational pause has concluded on July 16, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird July 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are conducting a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine and engaging in operations to set conditions for future offensi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced on July 7 that Russian forces in Ukraine are pausing to rest and regain ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting ISW’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia’s stated objectives in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros July 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30

Grace Mappes Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces retreated from the Snake Island on June 30 following a Ukrainian missile and artillery campaign. The Russian Defense Mini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29

Grace Mappes George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird June 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and tha...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26

Grace Mappes Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike against the Schevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv on June 26, likely to coincide with the o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed, con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23

Grace Mappes Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ongoing Belarusian mobilization exercises will continue in Gomel Oblast until July 1 but are unlikely to be in preparation for direct Bel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, undermining a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

The UK Ministry of Defense assesses that the Kremlin’s continued framing of its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made marginal gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk on June 18, but have largely stalled along other axes of advance. Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15

Grace Mappes Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Western officials announced additional military aid for Ukraine on June 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12

Grace Mappes George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird June 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian officials are increasingly taking over governmental positions in occupied Ukrainian territory, advancing the Kremlin's likely eff...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and localized but successful counterattacks against Russian positions throughout Ukraine on...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kh...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will likely further degrade Russian capabilities and lead to further morale breakdowns.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defens...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and L...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are inste...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21

Mason Clark George Barros Karolina Hird May 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird May 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to inflict air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian de...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the front line in Ukraine on May 16.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City continued to successfully push Russian forces toward the Russia-Ukraine border on Ma...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird May 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are likely amassing in Belgorod to reinforce Russian efforts in northern Kharkiv to prevent the ongoing Ukrainian countero...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7

Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Mason Clark May 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv is making significant progress and will likely advance to the Russian border in the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian defenses have largely stalled Russian advances in Eastern Ukraine. Russian troops conducted a number of unsuccessful attacks in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. A significant Ukrainian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird May 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30

George Barros Karolina Hird Mason Clark April 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on parts of the city that have suffered the most from Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird April 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made limited advances west of Severodonetsk on April 29 but remain stalled south of Izyum.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress south from Izyum and northwest of Rubizhne, but Russian offensive operations els...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued offensive operations along multiple axes even as they completed moving reinforcements drawn from the retreat fro...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

A briefing by the Russian Deputy Commander of the Central Military District on April 22 reiterated standing Russian objectives in eastern...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark April 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing int...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conduc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukraine’s sinking of the Moskva was a significant event that has likely triggered intensified Russian air and missile attacks in retaliat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian claims of a mass Ukrainian surrender in Mariupol are likely false, but Russian forces forced Ukrainian troops to abandon the Ilyi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12

George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11

George Barros Karolina Hird Mason Clark April 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

US intelligence reported over the weekend of April 9-10 that Russian Army General Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, commander of the Sou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made territorial gains in Mariupol in the past 24 hours and continued to reinforce operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk ax...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the cit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5

Karolina Hird George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark April 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to make little to no progress in frontal assaults to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, their current main effo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3

Karolina Hird George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnip...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark April 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark April 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia’s main effort is now focused on eastern Ukraine, with two subordinate main efforts: capturing the port city of Mariupol and captur...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark March 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take furthe...

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