Karolina Hird

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30

Russian efforts around Bakhmut indicate that Russian forces have fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns conc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28

Recent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26

The overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to inc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25

Reports of poorly staffed, provisioned, and supplied Russian mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space, exposing the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23

The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21

Two days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18

Russian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall conscription cycle is underway, likely further f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17

Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on November 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16

Russian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to em...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the eas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8

Iranian state-run outlet Nour News Agency reported that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry on Novembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the co...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1

Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31

Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on Octob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26

A Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longs...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25

Members of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19

Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18

Russian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15

Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12

Russia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sourc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s declarations about which categories of Russian males will be exempted from partial mobilization ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its fal...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20

Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they will hold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19

Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13

The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the Februa...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11

Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7

Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) descri...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3

Ukrainian officials directly stated that the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive is a methodical operation to intentionally degrade Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his false framing of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a defensive operation to prot...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30

Ukrainian forces began striking Russian pontoon ferries across the Dnipro River on August 29, which is consistent with the start of the U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that elements of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) reconnected to the Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 25 decree to increase the size of the Russian military starting in January 2023 is unlikely to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive opera...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23

Russian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13

Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that support Russian forces on the right...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14

Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharki...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11

The US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, b...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8

Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest n...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7

Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6

Russian and Ukrainian forces traded accusations of dangerous shelling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5

Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russia is using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3

Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29

A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28. Ukraine and Russia ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28

The Russian grouping in Donetsk Oblast is likely seeking to capitalize on recent marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut by continuing to att...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26

Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ong...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24

Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23

Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22

The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keepin...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21

Russian forces conducted a few limited and highly localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational tempo is not marke...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20

The current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway but will likely culm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s July 18 meeting with the commander of the Eastern group of forces Lieutenant General Rustam Mura...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17

Russian forces are continuing a measured return from the operational pause and conducted limited ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian operational pause has concluded on July 16, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10

Russian forces are conducting a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine and engaging in operations to set conditions for future offensi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7

Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced on July 7 that Russian forces in Ukraine are pausing to rest and regain ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting ISW’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5

Russia’s stated objectives in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4

Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30

Russian forces retreated from the Snake Island on June 30 following a Ukrainian missile and artillery campaign.  The Russian Defense Mini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and tha...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike against the Schevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv on June 26, likely to coincide with the o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed, con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23

Ongoing Belarusian mobilization exercises will continue in Gomel Oblast until July 1 but are unlikely to be in preparation for direct Bel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22

Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, undermining a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20

Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19

The UK Ministry of Defense assesses that the Kremlin’s continued framing of its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18

Russian forces made marginal gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk on June 18, but have largely stalled along other axes of advance. Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15

Western officials announced additional military aid for Ukraine on June 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14

The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10

Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9

Russian officials are increasingly taking over governmental positions in occupied Ukrainian territory, advancing the Kremlin's likely eff...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7

Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and localized but successful counterattacks against Russian positions throughout Ukraine on...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31

Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kh...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30

Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will likely further degrade Russian capabilities and lead to further morale breakdowns.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29

New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26

Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defens...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25

Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and L...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are inste...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21

Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19

Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18

Russian forces are continuing to inflict air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian de...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16

Russian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the front line in Ukraine on May 16.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12

Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11

Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City continued to successfully push Russian forces toward the Russia-Ukraine border on Ma...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9

Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8

Russian forces are likely amassing in Belgorod to reinforce Russian efforts in northern Kharkiv to prevent the ongoing Ukrainian countero...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7

The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv is making significant progress and will likely advance to the Russian border in the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4

Ukrainian defenses have largely stalled Russian advances in Eastern Ukraine. Russian troops conducted a number of unsuccessful attacks in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. A significant Ukrainian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1

Russian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30

A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on parts of the city that have suffered the most from Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29

Russian forces made limited advances west of Severodonetsk on April 29 but remain stalled south of Izyum.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress south from Izyum and northwest of Rubizhne, but Russian offensive operations els...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23

Russian forces continued offensive operations along multiple axes even as they completed moving reinforcements drawn from the retreat fro...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22

A briefing by the Russian Deputy Commander of the Central Military District on April 22 reiterated standing Russian objectives in eastern...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing int...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19

Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conduc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16

Ukraine’s sinking of the Moskva was a significant event that has likely triggered intensified Russian air and missile attacks in retaliat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13

Russian claims of a mass Ukrainian surrender in Mariupol are likely false, but Russian forces forced Ukrainian troops to abandon the Ilyi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11

US intelligence reported over the weekend of April 9-10 that Russian Army General Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, commander of the Sou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10

Russian forces made territorial gains in Mariupol in the past 24 hours and continued to reinforce operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk ax...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9

The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7

Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the cit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5

Russian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4

Russian forces continue to make little to no progress in frontal assaults to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, their current main effo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnip...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2

Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1

Russia’s main effort is now focused on eastern Ukraine, with two subordinate main efforts: capturing the port city of Mariupol and captur...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31

Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take furthe...