Kitaneh Fitzpatrick

Iran Update, March 15, 2023

Hardline officials are promoting conservative reforms, which will likely generate additional calls for political change in Iran. Hardline...

Iran Update, March 14, 2023

Iran Update, March 7, 2023

Iran Update, March 6, 2023

Over 110 separate student poisonings occurred throughout Iran on March 6.[i] Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They ar...

Iran Update, March 2, 2023

Iran Update, March 1, 2023

CTP assesses with moderate confidence that the Iranian regime is tolerating a country-wide, coordinated campaign to poison Iranian school...

Iran Update, February 28, 2023

Iran Update, February 27, 2023

Iran Update, February 23, 2023

Iran Update, February 22, 2023

Growing elements of the regime are publicly recognizing that the Islamic Republic has lost the confidence of its people as Iran faces a p...

Iran Update, February 21, 2023

The Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what pattern of anti-regime activity will charact...

Iran Update, February 17, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Iran Update, February 15, 2023

Protest coordinators have likely strengthened their organizational capabilities and internal infrastructure ahead of calls for anti-regim...

Iran Update February 14, 2023

Iran Update, February 10, 2023

Iran Update, February 8, 2023

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Aleppo City, Syria on February ...

Iran Update, February 7, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, February 2, 2023

A group of pragmatic hardliners are continuing to cohere around calls for the regime to reconcile with its alienated population in the wa...

Iran Crisis Update, February 1, 2023

Iranian officials across the political spectrum are cohering around different lessons the regime should draw from the protest movement an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...

Iran Crisis Update, January 30, 2023

Israeli combat aircraft conducted three airstrikes against likely Iran-backed militants in eastern Syria on January 29 and January 30. Is...

Iran Crisis Update, January 29, 2023

Israel conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28, according to ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 27, 2023

An armed individual shot and killed the security chief of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran and injured two guards on January 27. The gun...

Iran Crisis Update, January 26, 2023

Ongoing disruptions to Iran’s energy supplies may be generating severe air pollution.

Iran Crisis Update, January 25, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 24, 2023

Syrian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ali Mahmoud Abbas discussed deepening military cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Te...

Iran Crisis Update, January 23, 2023

Protest activity in Iran increased on January 23, particularly among current petrochemical employees and retired education and telecommun...

Iran Crisis Update, January 20, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 19, 2023

The Iranian regime is likely escalating against prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid. Social media users continued to document a he...

Iran Crisis Update, January 18, 2023

Protest activity in Iran may increase on January 19-20. Protest organizers have issued widespread calls for demonstrations on these days....

Iran Crisis Update, January 9, 2023

Protest coordinators and organizations may have successfully deterred the judiciary from executing two arrested protesters in Iran on Jan...

Iran Crisis Update, January 8, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 7, 2023 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to empower hardline security figures to enforce his uncompromising position toward the protests and...

Iran Crisis Update, January 6, 2023

The Iranian regime failed to suppress demonstrations in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on January 6. Protesters participated in...

Iran Crisis Update, January 5, 2023

Regime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 2, 2023

The Iranian state security services have intensified their protest crackdown and social oppression in recent days.

Iran Crisis Update, December 31

Recent comments from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders reflect the ongoing divisions within the regime, and especially th...

Iran Crisis Update, December 29

Funerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters are continuing to sustain anti-regime activity throughout Iran as demonstrati...

Iran Crisis Update, December 28

Iranian security officials and entities attempted to declare an end to protest activity on December 28 despite ongoing acts of anti-regim...

Iran Crisis Update, December 27

Iran Crisis Update, December 26

Protest coordinators and organizations are encouraging citizens to demonstrate more regularly and spontaneously rather than awaiting plan...

Iran Crisis Update, December 23

The Iranian regime is likely in a mounting confrontation with citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan Province. Izeh has seen weeks of violence since...

Iran Crisis Update, December 22

Social media accounts reported that Iranian security forces have begun violently killing and mass arresting citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan P...

Iran Crisis Update, December 21

Iran Crisis Update, December 20

Iran Crisis Update, December 17

Iranian security personnel clashed with prisoners in Karaj, Alborz Province on December 17, reportedly killing one and injuring up to 100...

Iran Crisis Update, December 16

Protest organizations and coordinators are increasingly promoting consistent and sustainable acts of anti-regime defiance as the Mahsa Am...

Iran Crisis Update, December 14

The Iranian economy appears to be entering a period of potentially significant disruption.

Iran Crisis Update, December 13

The Iranian regime has replaced key clerics responsible for indoctrinating a significant portion of the security forces, possibly to impr...

Iran Crisis Update, December 10

The Iranian regime is using protester executions to instill terror among the population.

Iran Crisis Update, December 9

Iran Crisis Update, December 8

The Iranian regime executed a protester on December 8 for the first time since the Mahsa Amini protests began.

Iran Crisis Update, December 7

Anti-regime strikes and demonstrations sustained momentum on December 7 as nation-wide calls to protest entered their third and final day...

Iran Crisis Update, December 6

Countrywide strikes continued throughout Iran on December 6.

Iran Crisis Update, December 5

Protest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly on December 5—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizat...

Iran Crisis Update, December 2

The Mashhad Neighborhood Youth issued further instructions for the planned protests on December 5-7. The Mashhad group called for street ...

Iran Crisis Update, December 1

Protesters in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province rhetorically defended prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid against the regim...

Iran Crisis Update, November 28

Social media users circulated calls for protests following the US-Iran world cup match on November 29 although it is unclear to what exte...

Iran Crisis Update, November 27

Iranian protest organization groups may be reinforcing their organizational capabilities as protest activity entered a relative lull over...

Iran Crisis Update, November 26

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests on November 26.

Iran Crisis Update, November 25

Protests continued but did not surge across Iran on November 24 and 25 despite calls for protests.

Iran Crisis Update, November 23

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase in the coming days. Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 20

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei likely issued an unpublished directive to violently suppress anti-regime protests within the past f...

Iran Crisis Update, November 19

Iran Crisis Update, November 18

The ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the Iranian security establishment.

Iran Crisis Update, November 15

Iran Crisis Update, November 14

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase from November 15 to 17. Protest coordinators and organizers have reiterated their calls...

Iran Crisis Update, November 13

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely escalating against prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, who has become increasingl...

Iran Crisis Update, November 11

Iran Crisis Update, November 10

The ongoing protests are creating fractures within the Iranian hardliner camp. Some parliamentarians representing restive border regions ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 7

Some elements of the Iranian regime have suggested political reform to assuage protesters’ frustrations, although such reform is highly u...

Iran Crisis Update, November 5

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid may begin regularly instigating protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province rather tha...

Iran Crisis Update, November 4

Parents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 3

Protesters coordinated extensively to respond to the regime crackdown in Karaj, possibly reflecting growing organization within the movem...

Iran Crisis Update, October 31

The regime has begun indicting and sentencing arrested protesters as part of the increasingly harsh and uncompromising stance that the re...

Iran Crisis Update, October 30

The regime is escalating its protest crackdown in a way that could fuel an enduring and increasingly violent uprising against the politic...

Iran Crisis Update, October 29

IRGC Commander Hossein Salami set conditions to violently escalate the suppression of ongoing, anti-regime demonstrations on October 29.

Iran Crisis Update, October 28

Iranian security personnel fired live ammunition and tear gas at anti-regime demonstrators in Zahedan, Sistan Baluchistan Province on Oct...

Iran Crisis Update, October 27

Iran Crisis Update, October 24

Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian c...

Iran Crisis Update, October 23

Iranian university and high school students are sustaining the momentum of the ongoing protest movement, leading the demonstrations into ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 22

Iran Crisis Update, October 21

The regime’s use of extreme violence against protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province is likely entrenching long-term frustration ag...

Iran Crisis Update, October 20

Anti-regime protests continued to subside in extent and scale on October 20 but may increase on October 22 and 26.

Iran Crisis Update, October 19

Anti-regime protests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Many instances of recent pro...

Iran Crisis Update, October 16

Iran Crisis Update, October 15

A major fire broke out at the Evin prison in Tehran on October 15, and the regime used live rounds and tear gas against prisoners and nea...

Iran Crisis Update, October 14

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired servicemembers and other affiliated officers to suppress protests...

Iran Crisis Update, October 13

Iran Crisis Update, October 11

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 10

The ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran. There are at least three active b...

Iran Crisis Update, October 8

The Iranian regime’s rhetorical responses to ongoing anti-regime protests may suggest that senior regime officials are posing for the ben...

Iran Crisis Update, October 7

Regime disinformation about protester deaths may further stoke anti-regime sentiment and even revitalize anti-regime demonstrations.

Iran Crisis Update, October 6

Iran may attack the US, Israeli, and/or Saudi targets in retaliation for the role Iranian officials claim those countries have played in ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 5

Anti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shia Imam and is a nati...

Iran Crisis Update, October 3

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.

Iran Crisis Update, October 2

The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 1

Iranian protesters successfully planned anti-regime demonstrations in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 despite reg...

Iran Crisis Update, September 30

Iran Crisis Update, September 29

The Iranian regime’s extensive internet and telecommunications censorship is severely limiting the open-source information available on o...

Iran Crisis Update, September 28

Circumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties.

Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories 

This report presents five different scenarios that could emerge in a post-Khamenei Iran.

Russia and Iran double down on their strategic partnership

Russia and Iran have expanded their strategic partnership since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This partnership will likely cha...

Iran’s Drone Inventory and Potential Sales to Russia

Iran has developed an extensive inventory of domestically produced drones of varying capabilities and ranges.  It has used some of those ...

Iran File: Can Iranian moderates and reformists threaten Raisi’s chances of becoming supreme leader?

Iran File: Iranian missile attack on Erbil highlights growing threat to US and partners 

Iran File: Iran’s evolving threat calculus in the Gulf

Is the Honeymoon Ending for Iran’s President Raisi?

Iran File: Iran loses optimism for cooperation with Taliban

Iran File: Tehran faces tough choices in Afghanistan

Regional Actors Eye Threats and Opportunities in Taliban Takeover

Iran File: Meet the Raisi Administration

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has drawn personnel from the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), economic empire, and Jud...

Iran File: Iran intensifies its escalation around the Strait of Hormuz

The IRGC’s recently-acquired responsibility for securing nuclear sites may change the Iran-Israel escalation pattern and intra-regime dynamics