Kitaneh Fitzpatrick

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick is a Senior Analyst for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute where she specializes in OSINT technology and in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Kitaneh graduated from Sarah Lawrence College with a Bachelor’s in Middle Eastern History and Comparative Literature and obtained her Master’s in Near Eastern Studies from New York University.

Position

Senior Analyst

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187 Results

The Russia-Iran Coalition Deepens

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Karolina Hird January 28, 2025 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 25, 2024

Brian Carter Andie Parry Kathryn Tyson Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Siddhant Kishore Katherine Wells Johanna Moore Kelly Campa July 25, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 20, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore July 20, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 13, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore July 13, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 6, 2024

Brian Carter Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld July 06, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 2, 2024

Brian Carter Johanna Moore Kathryn Tyson Siddhant Kishore Katherine Wells Andie Parry Kitaneh Fitzpatrick July 02, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the runoff presidential elections on J...

Iran Update, June 20, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Kathryn Tyson Andie Parry Alexandra Braverman June 20, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 18, 2024

Nicholas Carl Ashka Jhaveri Kelly Campa Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Alexandra Braverman Kathryn Tyson June 18, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 14, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Alexandra Braverman Kelly Campa Kathryn Tyson June 14, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 11, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Kelly Campa Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri June 11, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 9, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Kelly Campa Andie Parry June 09, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 8, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri June 08, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 03, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Kelly Campa Kathryn Tyson Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri June 03, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 27, 2024

Brian Carter Kelly Campa Kathryn Tyson Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry May 27, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 22, 2024

Thomas Bergeron Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Alexandra Braverman Ashka Jhaveri May 22, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 20, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Kelly Campa Kathryn Tyson Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld May 20, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 7, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Kelly Campa Andie Parry Kathryn Tyson Alexandra Braverman Ashka Jhaveri May 07, 2024 ANALYSIS

Israeli forces launched a limited ground operation to control the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip...

Iran Update, May 2, 2024

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Kathryn Tyson May 02, 2024 ANALYSIS

Africa File, May 2, 2024: Iran Pursues Economic and Military Influence; Burkinabe Abuses; Mali Kills Wanted IS Commander; Insurgents Strengthen in East Africa

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Josie Von Fischer Matthew Gianitsos Liam Karr May 02, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran in Africa. Iran is using military exports as a vehicle to pursue objectives in Africa such as acquiring uranium in Niger and a perma...

Iran Update, April 30, 2024

Brian Carter Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Alexandra Braverman Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Andie Parry April 30, 2024 ANALYSIS

Russia and China are hosting talks to facilitate Hamas’ inclusion in the Palestinian Authority, which would result in a Hamas-influenced ...

Iran Update, April 26, 2024

Brian Carter Liam Karr Kathryn Tyson Christina Harward Peter Mills Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore April 26, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 8, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Tor Lansing Christian Engfer Peter Mills Kathryn Tyson Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Andie Parry April 08, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 29, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Andie Parry March 29, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri met with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Teh...

Iran Update, March 11, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Karolina Hird Anne McGill Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Amin Soltani Andie Parry March 11, 2024 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2024

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Brian Carter Alexandra Braverman George Barros Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko February 21, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 21, 2024

Anne McGill Ahmad Omid Arman Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Kathryn Tyson Alexandra Braverman Johanna Moore Brian Carter Amin Soltani Andie Parry February 21, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 13, 2024

Brian Carter Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Peter Mills Alexandra Braverman Kathryn Tyson Amin Soltani Andie Parry February 13, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 9, 2024

Brian Carter Talia Tayoun Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Kathryn Tyson Johanna Moore February 09, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 25, 2023

Christina Harward Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani July 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian media and officials highlighted the addition of the Abu Mahdi land attack cruise missile to Iran’s naval arsenal to signal Iran’s...

Iran Update, July 21, 2023

Radhika Bhargava Alexander Coffen Alexa Albanese Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri July 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 18, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri July 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia accused the United States of preparing false flag chemical weapons attacks Syria, possibly supporting the joint Russian-Syrian-Ira...

Iran Update, July 17, 2023

Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri July 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 13, 2023

Riley Bailey Amin Soltani Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry July 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 12, 2023

Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri Kitaneh Fitzpatrick July 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 11, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri July 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian-backed militias and Syrian regime forces are continuing to reinforce their positions in Deir ez Zor Province in response to rumor...

Iran Update, July 10, 2023

Amin Soltani Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Brian Carter Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri July 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian-backed militias and Syrian regime forces deployed to Deir ez Zor in response to rumors of an imminent International Coalition att...

Iran Update, June 28, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Karolina Hird Johanna Moore June 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian leadership met with Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework leadership in Tehran to discuss forming political coalitions during the wee...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Continued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggest...

Iran Update, June 26, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld June 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

1. Iran is framing the US-led international coalition in Syria as an imminent security threat to local Syrians, possibly to incite and su...

Iran Update, June 23, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani June 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 21, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Amin Soltani June 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

1. The Syrian regime is leveraging regional normalization with Arab states to fund the reconstruction of Syria’s railways, which could bl...

Iran Update, June 20, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri June 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

An IRGC-affiliated news outlet tracked a US-Iraqi logistics convoy, possibly to signal Iranian intent to direct an attack on US interests...

Iran Update, June 16, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore June 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

1). Iran may have directed its Iraqi proxies to deescalate their rhetoric against US forces in Iraq. This is consistent with one of CTP’s...

Iran Update, June 14, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry Amin Soltani Johanna Moore June 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP has observed several developments that indicate the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is expanding its military capabilities an...

Iran Update, June 12, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Johanna Moore June 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Key Takeaways: 1. Iranian officials are promoting reports of resumed nuclear negotiations with the United States likely to generate short...

Iran Update, June 5, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri June 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 2, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld June 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Key Takeaways 1). Iran is training its militias in Syria to use a range of improvised and advanced weapons to attack US personnel in S...

Iran Update, June 1, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Johanna Moore June 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 31, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Peter Mills Ashka Jhaveri Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Andie Parry May 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran has bolstered its defensive position in eastern Syria since the end of the escalation cycle that occurred in March, likely to facili...

Iran Update, May 30, 2023

Peter Mills Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld May 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 26, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri May 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 25, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry Johanna Moore May 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Axis of Resistance news sources coordinated a disinformation campaign that claimed the United States will establish a new base in Iraq, l...

Iran Update, May 24, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Andie Parry May 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 23, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore May 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran and Iranian-backed militias facilitated the travel of Iranian religious pilgrims into Syria, possibly to expand Iranian influence in...

Iran Update, May 22, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani May 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

1. Iran condemned the Arab League’s resolution about arming militias in Syria and is very unlikely to stop supporting its proxies in Syri...

Iran Update, May 19, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Johanna Moore May 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are consolidating their security footprint in northern Ninewa Province, which will likely inc...

Iran Update, May 8, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore May 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran is maneuvering to economically benefit from Syria’s reintegration into the region, which may enable Iran to circumvent US and intern...

Iran Update, May 5, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld May 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Attacks on Iranian clerics increased during the past month, which may reflect broader public antipathy to the regime's sociocultural and ...

Iran Update, May 3, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld May 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 1, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld May 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian leadership dismissed several economic officials and emphasized fighting corruption between April 27 and May 1 to improve Iran’s e...

Iran Update, April 28, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani April 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 26, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld April 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

An unidentified man shot and killed Shia cleric and Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Abbas Ali Soleimani in a bank in Babolsar, Mazan...

Iran Update, April 24, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani April 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei briefly lost control of his audience during a speech to Basij students on April 18, indicating the degree to ...

Iran Update, April 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore April 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan James Motamed Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles April 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan James Motamed Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Palestinian militants expanded rocket attacks into Israel from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip to the Golan Heights. Palestinian mili...

Iran Update, April 5, 2023

Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 3, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Johanna Moore April 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Israel Defense Force conducted an airstrike targeting at least two Iranian-backed militia bases in western Syria on April 1, 2023. Un...

Iran Update, March 31, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles March 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes in Damascus, Syria on March 30 that resulted in the death of senior IRGC official Milad ...

Iran Update, March 30, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore March 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran and its proxies may target US forces in Syria in retaliation for multiple Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and Iranian-backed forces in...

Iran Update, March 29, 2023

Riley Bailey Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian alluded to Iranian involvement in the recent attacks on US bases in Syria durin...

Iran Update, March 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Amin Soltani March 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld March 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Hardline officials are promoting conservative reforms, which will likely generate additional calls for political change in Iran. Hardline...

Iran Update, March 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani March 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick March 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Over 110 separate student poisonings occurred throughout Iran on March 6.[i] Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They ar...

Iran Update, March 2, 2023

Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld March 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick March 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP assesses with moderate confidence that the Iranian regime is tolerating a country-wide, coordinated campaign to poison Iranian school...

Iran Update, February 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld February 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl February 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Growing elements of the regime are publicly recognizing that the Islamic Republic has lost the confidence of its people as Iran faces a p...

Iran Update, February 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what pattern of anti-regime activity will charact...

Iran Update, February 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld February 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Iran Update, February 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Protest coordinators have likely strengthened their organizational capabilities and internal infrastructure ahead of calls for anti-regim...

Iran Update February 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Jonathan Baumel Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld February 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Aleppo City, Syria on February ...

Iran Update, February 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, February 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

A group of pragmatic hardliners are continuing to cohere around calls for the regime to reconcile with its alienated population in the wa...

Iran Crisis Update, February 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian officials across the political spectrum are cohering around different lessons the regime should draw from the protest movement an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kitaneh Fitzpatrick George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...

Iran Crisis Update, January 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Israeli combat aircraft conducted three airstrikes against likely Iran-backed militants in eastern Syria on January 29 and January 30. Is...

Iran Crisis Update, January 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Israel conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28, according to ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 27, 2023

Anya Caraiani Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

An armed individual shot and killed the security chief of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran and injured two guards on January 27. The gun...

Iran Crisis Update, January 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld January 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ongoing disruptions to Iran’s energy supplies may be generating severe air pollution.

Iran Crisis Update, January 25, 2023

Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Syrian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ali Mahmoud Abbas discussed deepening military cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Te...

Iran Crisis Update, January 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Protest activity in Iran increased on January 23, particularly among current petrochemical employees and retired education and telecommun...

Iran Crisis Update, January 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl January 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime is likely escalating against prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid. Social media users continued to document a he...

Iran Crisis Update, January 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Protest activity in Iran may increase on January 19-20. Protest organizers have issued widespread calls for demonstrations on these days....

Iran Crisis Update, January 9, 2023

Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Protest coordinators and organizations may have successfully deterred the judiciary from executing two arrested protesters in Iran on Jan...

Iran Crisis Update, January 8, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to empower hardline security figures to enforce his uncompromising position toward the protests and...

Iran Crisis Update, January 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime failed to suppress demonstrations in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on January 6. Protesters participated in...

Iran Update, January 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles January 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Regime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian state security services have intensified their protest crackdown and social oppression in recent days.

Iran Crisis Update, December 31

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Recent comments from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders reflect the ongoing divisions within the regime, and especially th...

Iran Crisis Update, December 29

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Funerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters are continuing to sustain anti-regime activity throughout Iran as demonstrati...

Iran Crisis Update, December 28

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian security officials and entities attempted to declare an end to protest activity on December 28 despite ongoing acts of anti-regim...

Iran Crisis Update, December 27

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 26

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest coordinators and organizations are encouraging citizens to demonstrate more regularly and spontaneously rather than awaiting plan...

Iran Crisis Update, December 23

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime is likely in a mounting confrontation with citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan Province. Izeh has seen weeks of violence since...

Iran Crisis Update, December 22

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Social media accounts reported that Iranian security forces have begun violently killing and mass arresting citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan P...

Iran Crisis Update, December 21

Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 20

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 17

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian security personnel clashed with prisoners in Karaj, Alborz Province on December 17, reportedly killing one and injuring up to 100...

Iran Crisis Update, December 16

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest organizations and coordinators are increasingly promoting consistent and sustainable acts of anti-regime defiance as the Mahsa Am...

Iran Crisis Update, December 14

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian economy appears to be entering a period of potentially significant disruption.

Iran Crisis Update, December 13

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime has replaced key clerics responsible for indoctrinating a significant portion of the security forces, possibly to impr...

Iran Crisis Update, December 10

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime is using protester executions to instill terror among the population.

Iran Crisis Update, December 9

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 8

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime executed a protester on December 8 for the first time since the Mahsa Amini protests began.

Iran Crisis Update, December 7

Paul Stanley Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Anti-regime strikes and demonstrations sustained momentum on December 7 as nation-wide calls to protest entered their third and final day...

Iran Crisis Update, December 6

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Countrywide strikes continued throughout Iran on December 6.

Iran Crisis Update, December 5

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly on December 5—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizat...

Iran Crisis Update, December 2

Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl December 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Mashhad Neighborhood Youth issued further instructions for the planned protests on December 5-7. The Mashhad group called for street ...

Iran Crisis Update, December 1

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protesters in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province rhetorically defended prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid against the regim...

Iran Crisis Update, November 28

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Social media users circulated calls for protests following the US-Iran world cup match on November 29 although it is unclear to what exte...

Iran Crisis Update, November 27

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian protest organization groups may be reinforcing their organizational capabilities as protest activity entered a relative lull over...

Iran Crisis Update, November 26

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests on November 26.

Iran Crisis Update, November 25

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protests continued but did not surge across Iran on November 24 and 25 despite calls for protests.

Iran Crisis Update, November 23

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase in the coming days. Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 20

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei likely issued an unpublished directive to violently suppress anti-regime protests within the past f...

Iran Crisis Update, November 19

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles November 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, November 18

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

The ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the Iranian security establishment.

Iran Crisis Update, November 15

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, November 14

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase from November 15 to 17. Protest coordinators and organizers have reiterated their calls...

Iran Crisis Update, November 13

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely escalating against prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, who has become increasingl...

Iran Crisis Update, November 11

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, November 10

LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The ongoing protests are creating fractures within the Iranian hardliner camp. Some parliamentarians representing restive border regions ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 7

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Kathryn Tyson Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some elements of the Iranian regime have suggested political reform to assuage protesters’ frustrations, although such reform is highly u...

Iran Crisis Update, November 5

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Dana Alexander Gray November 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid may begin regularly instigating protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province rather tha...

Iran Crisis Update, November 4

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Parents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 3

LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protesters coordinated extensively to respond to the regime crackdown in Karaj, possibly reflecting growing organization within the movem...

Iran Crisis Update, October 31

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

The regime has begun indicting and sentencing arrested protesters as part of the increasingly harsh and uncompromising stance that the re...

Iran Crisis Update, October 30

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

The regime is escalating its protest crackdown in a way that could fuel an enduring and increasingly violent uprising against the politic...

Iran Crisis Update, October 29

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

IRGC Commander Hossein Salami set conditions to violently escalate the suppression of ongoing, anti-regime demonstrations on October 29.

Iran Crisis Update, October 28

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian security personnel fired live ammunition and tear gas at anti-regime demonstrators in Zahedan, Sistan Baluchistan Province on Oct...

Iran Crisis Update, October 27

LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, October 24

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian c...

Iran Crisis Update, October 23

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian university and high school students are sustaining the momentum of the ongoing protest movement, leading the demonstrations into ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 22

Nicholas Carl Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles October 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, October 21

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The regime’s use of extreme violence against protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province is likely entrenching long-term frustration ag...

Iran Crisis Update, October 20

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Anti-regime protests continued to subside in extent and scale on October 20 but may increase on October 22 and 26.

Iran Crisis Update, October 19

Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Anti-regime protests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Many instances of recent pro...

Iran Crisis Update, October 16

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles October 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, October 15

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

A major fire broke out at the Evin prison in Tehran on October 15, and the regime used live rounds and tear gas against prisoners and nea...

Iran Crisis Update, October 14

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired servicemembers and other affiliated officers to suppress protests...

Iran Crisis Update, October 13

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, October 11

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 10

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran. There are at least three active b...

Iran Crisis Update, October 8

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime’s rhetorical responses to ongoing anti-regime protests may suggest that senior regime officials are posing for the ben...

Iran Crisis Update, October 7

Frederick W. Kagan Brian Carter Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Regime disinformation about protester deaths may further stoke anti-regime sentiment and even revitalize anti-regime demonstrations.

Iran Crisis Update, October 6

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran may attack the US, Israeli, and/or Saudi targets in retaliation for the role Iranian officials claim those countries have played in ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 5

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Anti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shia Imam and is a nati...

Iran Crisis Update, October 3

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.

Iran Crisis Update, October 2

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 1

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian protesters successfully planned anti-regime demonstrations in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 despite reg...

Iran Crisis Update, September 30

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl September 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, September 29

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick September 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime’s extensive internet and telecommunications censorship is severely limiting the open-source information available on o...

Iran Crisis Update, September 28

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl September 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Circumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties.

Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl September 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

This report presents five different scenarios that could emerge in a post-Khamenei Iran.

Russia and Iran double down on their strategic partnership

Katherine Lawlor Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl August 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia and Iran have expanded their strategic partnership since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This partnership will likely cha...

Iran’s Drone Inventory and Potential Sales to Russia

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan July 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran has developed an extensive inventory of domestically produced drones of varying capabilities and ranges. It has used some of those ...

Iran File: Can Iranian moderates and reformists threaten Raisi’s chances of becoming supreme leader?

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick March 29, 2022 BRIEF

Iran File: Iranian missile attack on Erbil highlights growing threat to US and partners

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl March 18, 2022 BRIEF

Iran File: Iran’s evolving threat calculus in the Gulf

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 28, 2022 BRIEF

Is the Honeymoon Ending for Iran’s President Raisi?

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 22, 2021 ANALYSIS

Iran File: Iran loses optimism for cooperation with Taliban

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick September 27, 2021 BRIEF

Iran File: Tehran faces tough choices in Afghanistan

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick September 02, 2021 BRIEF

Regional Actors Eye Threats and Opportunities in Taliban Takeover

Ezgi Yazici Virginia Wang Trey Sprouse J. Matthew McInnis Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Mason Clark Emily Estelle Perez August 20, 2021 ANALYSIS

Iran File: Meet the Raisi Administration

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick August 18, 2021 BRIEF

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has drawn personnel from the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), economic empire, and Jud...

Iran File: Iran intensifies its escalation around the Strait of Hormuz

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl August 06, 2021 BRIEF

The IRGC’s recently-acquired responsibility for securing nuclear sites may change the Iran-Israel escalation pattern and intra-regime dynamics

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick July 19, 2021 ANALYSIS