Riley Bailey

275 Results

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Karolina Hird 8 hours ago ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov 1 day ago ANALYSIS

A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey 2 days ago ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey 3 days ago ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a two-part conception of Russian identity in a speech on November 28: a “Russian nation” – cl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird 4 days ago ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward November 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey November 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey November 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 17 to 18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey November 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Grace Mappes November 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Christina Harward November 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian state media released and later retracted reports about the "regrouping" of Russian forces on the east (left) bank of Kherson Obla...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey November 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward November 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8. The Ukrainian General...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Christina Harward November 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces transferred a limited number of armored vehicles to the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey November 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Riley Bailey November 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Sydney White Kathryn Tyson Annika Ganzeveld Brian Carter Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri November 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on November 1 that the war in Ukraine has taken on a positional nature an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward Karolina Hird October 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey October 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward October 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey October 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey October 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22, 2023

Mason Clark Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans Karolina Hird October 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans October 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have likely repelled another intensified Russian offensive effort towards Avdiivka in the past several days and inflicte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey October 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on October 20 and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian militar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2023

Mason Clark Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans October 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukraine used US-provided ATACMS long-range missiles to strike Russian targets in occupied Ukraine for the first time on October 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey October 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov September 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Christina Harward September 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28. The Ukrainian General Staf...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

The tactical situation in Verbove remains unclear as Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on Sept...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans September 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros September 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western Zaporizhia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2023

Mason Clark Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov September 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird September 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey September 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Christina Harward September 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Grace Mappes September 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2023

Mason Clark Annika Ganzeveld Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey September 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov September 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on September 2.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22, 2023

Mitchell Belcher Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintrod...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans August 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the w...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 2023

Mason Clark Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov August 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Wagner Group continues to maintain a presence at facilities in Belarus and the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russia remains unc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov August 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey August 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russian logistics and port infrastructure in occupied Crime...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Christina Harward Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

The lack of Russian milblogger reaction to a Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge represents a notable inflection in Russian reporting ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Segments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Christina Harward Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey July 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird July 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, al...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov July 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Pri...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Thomas Bergeron Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov George Barros July 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey July 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff rep...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward George Barros Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than break...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 13, 2023

Riley Bailey Amin Soltani Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry July 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLO...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces are not in Belarus as of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Continued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggest...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s Ju...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko June 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minist...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made gains on June 14.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko June 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2023

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 10.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2023

Mason Clark Annika Ganzeveld Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey June 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Layne Philipson June 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey June 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey May 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on May 25 that the Wagner Group began handing over its positions in Bakhmut to the Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prior...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the l...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2023

Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen “Akhmat” troop...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2023

Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey April 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to appoint an overall theater commander for his invasion of Ukraine has had cascading effec...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2023

Mason Clark Angela Howard Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko April 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros April 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Reporting from some Western sources that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin called for Russia to end its war against Ukraine is ina...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey April 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird April 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko April 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2023

Mason Clark Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Riley Bailey April 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey April 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey March 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s atte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 29 to review...

Iran Update, March 29, 2023

Riley Bailey Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian alluded to Iranian involvement in the recent attacks on US bases in Syria durin...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey March 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Angela Howard Riley Bailey March 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey March 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fig...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

US intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Mold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes March 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut bu...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

George Barros Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko March 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird George Barros Riley Bailey February 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kimberly Kagan Frederick W. Kagan January 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023

Nicole Wolkov Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Layne Philipson George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey George Barros January 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey January 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros January 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2023

Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko January 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched two waves of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure on January

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13

Mason Clark Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko January 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on the evening of Janua...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12

Mason Clark Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Madison Williams Riley Bailey January 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Recent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources. Even at t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey January 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey December 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces targeted Kyiv using Iranian-made drones on the night of December 29 to 30, a continuation of an increased pace of drone at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angela Howard December 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros December 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Madison Williams George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros December 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird December 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey December 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s i...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets with...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Pre...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros December 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3

George Barros Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko December 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey December 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian efforts around Bakhmut indicate that Russian forces have fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns conc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

The overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to inc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Reports of poorly staffed, provisioned, and supplied Russian mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space, exposing the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Two days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on November 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey Yekaterina Klepanchuk Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7

Mason Clark Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry on Novembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5

Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird November 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the co...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart the Donetsk offensive but will likely still fail to achieve o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros October 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros October 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

A Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longs...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Members of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22

Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor October 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl George Barros Riley Bailey Kathryn Tyson Karolina Hird October 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor October 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko October 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sourc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27

Mason Clark Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor September 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its...

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