Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18, 2025

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Note: The data cut-off for this product was TIME pm ET on December 18. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the December 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continue to publicly demonstrate their commitment to achieving Russia's original war aims while exaggerating Russian battlefield gains. Putin stated during a December 17 ceremony awarding medals to Russian servicemembers that Russia will achieve all of its goals and claimed that Russian forces have seized "strategically important settlements" that are opening up opportunities for further offensives.[i] The Kremlin readout from the event highlighted statements from a recipient of the Hero of Russia award, who stated that Russian forces are fulfilling Putin's mandate to seize Russia's "ancestral lands." Putin's December 17 statements are in line with his other recent statements, indicating his commitment to his 2022 maximalist war aims, such that he will not be satisfied with a peace agreement based on the US-proposed 28-point plan.[ii]

Putin continued to exaggerate Russian successes, alleging that Russian forces had seized Siversk.[iii] ISW has only observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized about 77 percent of Siversk. Gerasimov also claimed during a December 18 briefing for foreign military attachés that Russian forces have seized Kupyansk (despite mounting evidence of Ukrainian forces liberating a significant portion of the town) and control 50 percent of Kostyantynivka.[iv] ISW has not observed evidence or even claims of Russian advances in Kostyantynivka close to Gerasimov's figure. ISW has observed evidence that Russian forces have seized only 1.6 percent of Kostyantynivka, while maintaining a presence within only five percent of the town (either through infiltration missions or assaults). Even Russian milbloggers' maximalist claims about Russian advances are not as extensive as Gerasimov's, with milbloggers claiming that Russian forces have seized only about 11 percent of the town.

Gerasimov further claimed that Russian forces have seized over 6,300 square kilometers in 2025 — slightly more than Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov's December 17 claim of 6,000 square kilometers.[v] ISW assesses that Russian forces have seized only about 4,700 square kilometers in 2025, but even Gerasimov's more exaggerated claim only amounts to an area slightly larger than the state of Delaware or just 1.04 percent of Ukraine's total land area. Gerasimov's and Belousov's exaggerated claims actually demonstrate the slow pace of Russian advances and undermine the Kremlin's ongoing cognitive warfare effort to portray a Russian battlefield victory in Ukraine and the collapse of Ukrainian defenses as inevitable.[vi] Gerasimov used his briefing to foreign military officials to repeat many of the claims from Putin's and Belousov's addresses to the December 17 Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) board meeting, likely in order to spread these Russian narratives to an international audience.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to signal his commitment to negotiations as high-ranking Kremlin officials continue to publicly and explicitly reject significant points of the peace plan currently under discussion. Zelensky reiterated on December 18 his readiness to hold presidential elections in Ukraine as a step toward a peace agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine — in line with the initial US-proposed 28-point plan requiring that Ukraine hold elections within 100 days of codifying the agreement. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated on December 18 that Russia continues to see the deployment of any Western troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees for post-war Ukraine "unacceptable" and that Russia would see such troops as “legitimate.”[vii]  The Kremlin has repeatedly voiced its unwillingness to agree to any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine, likely to allow Russia to renew its aggression against Ukraine after a peace to achieve Putin’s maximalist war aim of gaining full effective control over Ukraine. Zelensky has, in stark contrast, demonstrated Ukraine’s willingness to make meaningful compromises.[viii] Kremlin officials have repeatedly rejected elements of the 28-point plan, calling into question Putin’s willingness to accept even that outline agreement and demonstrating how essential a reliable security guarantee for Ukraine will be for the sustainability of any peace agreement.

Three Russian border guards briefly crossed into Estonian territory on December 17. Estonian authorities reported that the Russian border guards used a hovercraft to access the Vasknarva stone breakwater on the Narva River, which is situated in both Russian and Estonian territory.[ix] The border guards reportedly disembarked the hovercraft, walked a short distance along the breakwater into Estonian territory, and subsequently returned to Russian territory shortly thereafter.[x] Estonian Interior Minister Igor Taro stated on December 17 that the border guards crossed into Estonian territory in an area where Russian vessels must request access in order to pass into Estonian territory — a process to which Taro noted Russian authorities have long adhered.[xi] Taro stated that Estonian authorities have not determined the motive behind the border crossing. Estonian border guards observed seven armed Russian servicemembers, who were wearing uniforms that suggested they were not Russian border guards, operating near the Russia-Estonia border on October 10, but the Russian personnel did not enter Estonian territory in that incident.[xii] ISW continues to assess that Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[xiii] The December 17 event is the first instance ISW has observed of uniformed Russian personnel crossing over into NATO territory since the start of Russia's Phase Zero effort in September 2025.

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continue to publicly demonstrate their commitment to achieving Russia's original war aims while exaggerating Russian battlefield gains.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to signal his commitment to compromise in negotiations as high-ranking Kremlin officials continue to publicly and explicitly reject significant points of the peace plan currently under discussion.
• Three Russian border guards briefly crossed into Estonian territory on December 17.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military targets on the night of December 17 to 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck two S-400 air defense systems of the Russian 568th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment near Rayevka (northeast of Belgorod City) overnight, which geolocated footage later confirmed.[xiv] Additional geolocated footage published on December 18 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely struck an electrical substation in Bataysk, Rostov Oblast.[xv] Rostov Oblast Governor Yury Slusar and Rostov-on-Don Mayor Alexander Skryabin confirmed the strikes on December 18.[xvi] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that Ukrainian forces likely also struck a Russian shadow fleet tanker near the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery’s oil transshipment terminal in Rostov Oblast.[xvii] Berdyansk City Military Administration reported that the tanker illegally exported resources from occupied Mariupol and Berdyansk.[xviii]

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on December 18 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked in Kursk and Sumy oblasts, including north of Sumy City near Andriivka, Oleksiivka, Yablunivka, Kindrativka, and Varachyne, on December 17 and 18.[xix]

Order of Battle: First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian equipment near Mykilske (northeast of Sumy City).[xx] Elements of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment (Territorial Control) (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and reportedly under the operational control of the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces) are reportedly operating in Kursk and Sumy oblasts.[xxi] Drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Sumy direction.[xxii]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on December 18 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced south of Vovchansk.[xxiii]

Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv City toward Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Starytsya, Izbytske, Lyman, Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, Prylipka, and Vilcha, and toward Okhrimivka on December 17 and 18.[xxiv]

A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed on December 18 that the Russian military command sent 50 new recruits to reinforce elements of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) operating in the Kharkiv direction but that one-third of the recruits were either over 70 years old or seriously ill.[xxv]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on December 18 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Velykyi Burluk near Milove, Khatnie, and Dovhenke, and east of Velykyi Burluk near Odradne on December 17 and 18.[xxvi]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on December 18 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Kupyansk itself; east of Kupyansk toward Petropavlivka; and southeast of Kupyansk near Kurylivka and Pishchane and toward Hlushkivka on December 17 and 18.[xxvii]

The officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kupyansk direction reported on December 17 that Russian forces have intensified rocket and glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions in Kupyansk after recent Ukrainian advances in the town.[xxviii] The officer stated that Russian forces are striking indiscriminately at any targets that could be Ukrainian fortifications. The officer stated that Russian forces are likely striking Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (south of Kupyansk) to support future use of the railway in the settlement and shore up logistics routes for future offensives.

A Ukrainian brigade published footage on December 17 showing Ukrainian forces repelling a platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault in the Kupyansk direction, possibly north of Petropavlivka.[xxix] Ukrainian forces destroyed one Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), two BTR-80 armored personnel carriers (APCs), two buggies, nine motorcycles, and three quad bikes during the assault.

A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger criticized the Russian MoD on December 17 for spreading footage of Russian servicemembers purportedly in Kupyansk to support the MoD’s claim that Russian forces control Kupyansk, as the video was later geolocated to Tavolzhanka, approximately 20 kilometers northeast of Kupyansk.[xxx] The milblogger noted that exaggerated claims of control are harmful and are contributing to unnecessary Russian personnel losses.

Order of Battle: First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the Russian 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly conducting reconnaissance in Kupyansk.[xxxi] Elements of the 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in the Kupyansk direction.[xxxii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Borova near Zahryzove and southeast of Borova near Novovodyane and Novoyehorivka, and toward Cherneshchyna and Chervonyi Stav on December 17 and 18, but did not advance.[xxxiii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Lyman direction on December 18 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Drobysheve and Novoselivka; north of Lyman near Stavky; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi; and east of Lyman near Zarichne on December 17 and 18.[xxxiv]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA, MMD) are reportedly operating in the Lyman direction.[xxxv]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 17 shows elements of the Russian Black Raven drone detachment (reportedly of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) striking Ukrainian forces in western Fedorivka (southwest of Siversk), indicating that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the area.[xxxvi]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced northeast of Zakitne (northwest of Siversk).[xxxvii]

Russian forces attacked near Siversk itself; northwest of Siversk near Platonivka and toward Ozerne, Zakitne, and Dibrova; northeast of Siversk near Serebryanka; and south of Siversk near Pereizne and Zvankivka on December 17 and 18.[xxxviii]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 169th Motorized Rifle Brigade (25th CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) reportedly continue to operate in the Yampil direction.[xxxix]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

[

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 17 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in the northern outskirts of Ivanopillya (south of Kostyantynivka).[xl]

Refinement of area under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on December 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently maintained positions or advanced east of Berestok — an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[xli]

Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka itself; north of Kostyantynivka near Virolyubivka and Markove and toward Klynove; east of Kostyantynivka near Oleksandro-Shultyne; south of Kostyantynivka near Kleban-Byk; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Pleshchiivka and Ivanopillya and toward Stepanivka; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Sofiivka on December 17 and 18.[xlii]

Order of Battle: Drone operators and other elements of the Russian 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) and of the 27th Artillery Regiment (6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd Army Corps [AC], under operational control of the Southern Grouping of Forces) are reportedly operating near Kostyantynivka.[xliii] Drone operators of the 163rd Tank Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Sofiivka.[xliv] First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the Sever-V Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions north of Chasiv Yar (northeast of Kostyantynivka).[xlv]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on December 18 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) control Boykivka (southeast of Dobropillya).[xlvi] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Zapovidne and Dorozhnie (all southeast of Dobropillya).[xlvii]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Dobropillya toward Kucheriv Yar; east of Dobropillya near Nove Shakhove, Shakhove, and Toretske; and southeast of Dobropillya near Zapovidne and Dorozhnie on December 18.[xlviii]

[xlix]

A Russian milblogger claimed on December 18 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the heights northeast of Nove Shakhove and northwest of Shakhove and that the area near Shakhove is a contested "gray zone."[l]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 68th Tank Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Toretske.[li] Drone operators and other elements of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) and of the 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are reportedly operating in the Dobropillya direction.[lii]

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.[liii]

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 18 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Zatyshok (northeast of Pokrovsk).[liv]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in southeastern Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk).[lv]

Russian forces attacked near and within Pokrovsk itself; northwest of Pokrovsk near Hryshyne; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Chervonyi (Krasnyi) Lyman; east of Pokrovsk near and within Myrnohrad; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Udachne, Kotlyne, and Molodetske on December 17 and 18.[lvi]

The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Okishev reported on December 18 that Russian forces are taking advantage of favorable weather conditions in the Pokrovsk direction to increase the number and intensity of attacks and that the Russian military command continues to commit reserves of the Russian 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to urban combat within Pokrovsk itself.[lvii]

Order of Battle: Artillery and other elements of the Russian 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD) and of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division (2nd CAA, CMD) are reportedly operating in the Pokrovsk direction.[lviii] Elements of the 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment (27th Motorized Rifle Division, 2nd CAA) are reportedly operating near Hryshyne.[lix] FPV drone operators of the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Myrnohrad.[lx]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on December 17 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka itself and south of Novopavlivka near Dachne and Filiya on December 17 and 18.[lxi]

A Ukrainian brigade amplified footage on December 18 and reported that Ukrainian forces repelled an at least reduced company-sized Russian mechanized assault in the Novopavlivka direction on December 16.[lxii] Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed two tanks, five armored fighting vehicles, and two all-terrain vehicles (ATVs).

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on December 18 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Oleksandrivka near Ivanivka and Tovste; east of Oleksandrivka near Oleksandrohrad and toward Lisne; and southeast of Oleksandrivka near Stepove, Sosnivka, Verbove, and Krasnohirske on December 17 and 18.[lxiii]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Havrylivka (northeast of Oleksandrivka).[lxiv]

Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian military targets in occupied Donetsk Oblast on the night of December 17 to 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian a drone storage facility and troop formation of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, SMD) in occupied Makiivka (just north of Donetsk City roughly 47 kilometers from the frontline).[lxv]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 18 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Hulyaipole and in central Varvarivka (northwest of Hulyaipole).[lxvi] Additional geolocated footage published on December 18 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Hulyaipole, although ISW assesses that this change did not occur in the past 24 hours.[lxvii]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Dobropillya (northwest of Hulyaipole).[lxviii]

Russian forces attacked near and within Hulyaipole itself; northwest of Hulyaipole near Dobropillya, Radisne, Nove Zaporizhzhia, and Varvarivka and toward Ternuvate, Bratske, Zarichne, and Andriivka; north of Hulyaipole near Solodke and Zlahoda; and northeast of Hulyaipole near Pryvilne and Rybne on December 17 and 18.[lxix]

Order of Battle: First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the Russian 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Zaliznychne (west of Hulyaipole).[lxx] Elements of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and EMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Hulyaipole.[lxxi]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 18 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced southwest of Lukyanivske (northwest of Orikhiv) and within and east of Stepnohirsk (west of Orikhiv).[lxxii]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Orikhiv toward Lukyanivske and west of Orikhiv near Novoandriivka, Prymorske, Stepnohirsk, Kamyanske and Plavni on December 17 and 18.[lxxiii]

A Russian milblogger claimed on December 18 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions only in downtown high-rises in Stepnohirsk.[lxxiv] Another Russian milblogger claimed on December 18 that Russian forces in Plavni and Kamyanske are unable to maneuver freely due to Ukrainian drone coverage and that the frontline in the area is porous with Ukrainian and Russian positions intermingled throughout.[lxxv] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger stated on December 17 that Russian claims about the Russian seizure of Mala Tokmachka (southeast of Orikhiv) and Novodanylivka (south of Orikhiv) are unconfirmed.[lxxvi]

Order of Battle: Drone operators and other elements of the Russian 7th Airborne (VDV) Division, including its 108th and 247th VDV regiments, are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction and near Stepnohirsk, respectively.[lxxvii] FPV drone operators of the 4th Military Base (58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) and of the 291st Artillery Brigade (58th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian vehicles near Orikhiv.[lxxviii] FPV drone operators of the 328th VDV Regiment (104th VDV Division) are striking Ukrainian positions in Lukyanivske.[lxxix]

Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian military targets in Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of December 17 to 18.[lxxx]

 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian 76th VDV Division fuel and ammunition depot near Prymorske.[lxxxi]

Russian forces continued limited ground assaults in the Kherson direction on December 18 but did not advance.

A Russian milblogger claimed that fighting continues on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta.[lxxxii]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian BARS-Sarmat Unmanned Systems Special Purpose Center (formerly BARS-Sarmat Detachment, subordinated to VDV) are reportedly operating in the Kherson direction.[lxxxiii]

Ukrainian forces continued their strike campaign against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea on the night of December 17 to 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian 55Zh6 Nebo-U radar station near occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[lxxxiv] Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported that Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against two Nebo-SVU long-range radar systems, an S-400 radar station, a Pantsir-S2 air defense system, and a MiG-31 aircraft with ammunition at Belbek Air Base in occupied Crimea overnight.[lxxxv] Geolocations of the footage that the SBU posted confirmed the strikes against the air base.[lxxxvi]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 17 to 18. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 82 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — of which roughly 50 were Shahed-type drones — from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[lxxxvii] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 63 drones, that 19 drones struck 12 locations, and downed debris fell on 8 locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential, civilian, transport, and energy infrastructure in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Odesa oblasts.[lxxxviii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces may have used an Iskander-1000 missile, a new variant of the Iskander-M ballistic missile with a reported range of up to 1,000-1,300 kilometers and a 200-300 kilogram warhead.[lxxxix]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Russia deployed an Oreshnik missile system to Belarus. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko stated on December 18 that Russian forces deployed the Oreshnik missile system to Belarus on December 17 and that the system is entering combat duty.[xc] Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans in December 2024 to deploy the Oreshnik missile systems to Belarus in 2025.[xci]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.