Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13, 2025

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Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2:15 pm ET on December 13. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the December 14 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces continue to advance within and near Kupyansk, and more details have emerged about the counteroffensive effort. Geolocated footage published on December 12 indicates that Ukrainian forces made further advances in central Kupyansk while conducting clearing operations and also advanced southeast of Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk).[1] Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces completely seized Yuvileynyi Microraion in southwestern Kupyansk and assessed that this lost ground will likely prevent Russian forces from sustaining any remaining positions in southern Kupyansk.[2] Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces are still clearing Kupyansk, and geolocated footage published on December 12 and 13 indicates that Russian infiltration groups remain in northern and western Kupyansk.[3] The chief of staff of a Ukrainian drone battalion reported that Russian forces are still attempting to penetrate into Kupyansk, primarily on foot.[4] Russian milbloggers acknowledged Ukrainian advances into Yuvileynyi Microraion and northwest of Kupyansk and stated that heavy fighting continues near Myrove and Radkivka (both northwest to north of Kupyansk).[5] One milblogger acknowledged Russia's loss of Radkivka and two defensive positions south and east of Radkivka.[6] Many Russian milbloggers continued to cast doubt on or outright reject many of the Ukrainian reports of advances despite available evidence supporting the Ukrainian reporting.[7]

Ukrainian forces began counteroffensive operations in September 2025 after relatively rapid Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction and infiltrations into Kupyansk itself. Russian forces advanced relatively quickly in the Kupyansk direction in Summer 2025, threatening Kupyansk itself by early August 2025, and the Russian military command began portraying Russian infiltrations into Kupyansk as significant advances in late August.[8] Butusov's reporting indicates that Russian forces were able to leverage these infiltration missions to advance into and consolidate positions within Kupyansk. Butusov reported that assault groups of the Russian 121st and 122nd motorized rifle regiments (both 68th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th CAA), and 1855th Battalion had established enduring positions within Kupyansk after Russian forces first infiltrated into the town in August 2025 and had also seized a key height north of Kupyansk — making the situation critical for Ukrainian forces by mid-September 2025.[9] Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces had liberated towns northwest of Kupyansk — Tyshchenkivka by September 24, Kindrashivka by October 9, and Radkivka by October 11 — allowing Ukrainian forces to break through Russian defenses in the area. Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces had reached the west (right) bank of the Oskil River and cut Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Kupyansk from the north by October 21. Butusov stated that drone operators of the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces, Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies, the Sudniy Den (Judgement Day) drone project (reportedly part of the Sudoplatov Battalion), and 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], LMD) had created a "kill zone" (an area of elevated drone strike risk) in the Kupyansk direction.[10] Butusov noted that Ukrainian forces created and leveraged battlefield advantages to allow Ukrainian counterattacks despite the "kill zone."[11] The Ukrainian counterattack continues to demonstrate that Ukrainian forces are capable of making tactical gains on the frontline, particularly in areas where Russian forces are overstretched.[12] The Kremlin has been leveraging its claims of advances in and near Kupyansk for a cognitive warfare effort designed to portray the Ukrainian lines as on the verge of collapse, such that Ukraine and the West should concede to Russia's demands, and the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kupyansk direction continue to demonstrate that this narrative is false.[13]

Russian forces launched 495 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 12 to 13, heavily targeting energy infrastructure across the country. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 465 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones, of which roughly 270 were Shaheds, from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Hvardiiske and Cape Chauda, Crimea.[14] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace over Tula and Tambov oblasts; five Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea; five Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk Oblast; and 16 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black and Caspian seas. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 417 drones and 13 cruise missiles; eight missiles and 33 drones hit 18 locations; debris fell on three locations; and six missiles did not reach their targets (presumably due to Ukrainian electronic warfare [EW] operations). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian strikes primarily targeted Odesa Oblast.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck civilian energy, residential, and port infrastructure in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts, injuring at least eight civilians.[15] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian Energy Ministry reported that the Russian attacks struck energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts, causing power outages in Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[16] Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko reported that Russian strikes left over one million subscribers without power across the country.[17] Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba reported that Russian strikes left Odesa City without electricity, water, and heat.[18] Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, reported that Russian strikes damaged 20 power substations in Odesa Oblast and caused outages for at least 100,000 subscribers throughout the oblast.[19] The Ukrainian Navy reported on December 13 that Russian drones struck the Turkish vessel Viva that had been transporting sunflower oil in the Black Sea at the time of the strike.[20]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he will hold discussions regarding a peace settlement with US and European delegations in Berlin in the coming days.[21] Two White House officials told Axios on December 13 that US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner will meet with Zelensky, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Frederich Merz in Berlin on December 15.[22] A White House official stated that the United States would support a potential Ukrainian territorial referendum and sees Zelensky's proposal to hold this referendum as progress in the peace negotiations.

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continue to advance within and near Kupyansk, and more details have emerged about the counteroffensive effort.
• Ukrainian forces began counteroffensive operations in September 2025 after relatively rapid Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction and infiltrations into Kupyansk itself.
• Russian forces launched 495 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 12 to 13, heavily targeting energy infrastructure across the country.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he will hold discussions regarding a peace settlement with US and European delegations in Berlin in the coming days.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman direction.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure on the night of December 12 to 13. Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported on December 13 that Ukrainian forces struck the Saratov Oil Refinery, and Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes damaged unspecified infrastructure in Saratov Oblast.[23] Geolocated footage published on December 12 shows a fire near the refinery and has audible explosions.[24] Ukrainian sources reported on December 13 that Ukrainian forces struck the Minudobreniya Chemical Plant in Rossosh, Voronezh Oblast, which produces ammonia, nitric acid, and other chemicals used to manufacture explosives and ammunition for Russian forces.[25] Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Gusev confirmed that Ukrainian drone strikes damaged an industrial facility in Voronezh Oblast on December 13.[26] Sources in Ukraine's Security Services (SBU) told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on December 12 that SBU drones struck Lukoil’s Filanovsky and Korchagin oil platforms in the Caspian Sea, halting operations on both platforms.[27] Ukrainian forces struck the Filanovsky Oil Field overnight on December 10 to 11.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on December 12 that Ukrainian forces recently struck the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl City, Yaroslavl Oblast, overnight on December 11 to 12.[29]

Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on December 13 that Ukrainian forces struck the base of the Russian 26th Missile Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) in Luga, Leningrad Oblast, on the morning of December 7.[30]

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on December 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on December 12 that Russian forces seized Oleksiivka (north of Sumy City).[31]

Russian forces attacked in unspecified areas of Kursk and Sumy oblasts on December 12 and 13.[32] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Andriivka (north of Sumy City) and Oleksiivka.[33]

Ukrainian State Border Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko reported on December 13 that Russian forces have decreased the tempo of their small-group infantry attacks in Khotyn and Yunakivka hromadas in northern Sumy Oblast due to heavy losses and their persistent failure to advance.[34] Demchenko stated that Russian forces continue to use sabotage and reconnaissance groups to attempt to infiltrate into Sumy Oblast. A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed on December 13 that elements of the Russian 137th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) are gradually withdrawing from Yunakivka (northeast of Sumy City).[35] Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on December 11 that Russian forces advanced near Yunakivka, but Russian milbloggers have been complaining about extensive Russian losses for no territorial advances near Yunakivka for several weeks.[36]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz "Press" Detachment (204th Akhmat Spetsnaz Regiment), Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Pitersk Detachment, and the 15th Tank Regiment (69th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Myropillya (northeast of Sumy City).[37] Elements of the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) and of the 1st Battalion of the 217th VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Sumy direction.[38]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on December 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Synelnykove, Lyman, Prylipka, and Vilcha on December 12 and 13.[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked toward Vovchanski Khutory.[40]

The chief of staff of a Ukrainian drone battalion reported on December 12 that Russian forces in the Vovchansk direction are attempting to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) between Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory.[41] The chief of staff reported that fog and rain inhibit Ukrainian drone operations but that Ukrainian forces have developed unspecified countermeasures to continue drone operations even in poor weather. A Russian milblogger claimed on December 13 that Russian forces will struggle to advance south from their positions in the lowlands near and within Vovchansk because Ukrainian forces hold higher ground in the area.[42]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Velykyi Burluk near Milove and Khatnie on December 12 and 13 but did not advance.[43]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kupyansk.

See topline text for Ukrainian advances in Kupyansk.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Kucherivka (east of Kupyansk).[44]

Russian forces attacked near and within Kupyansk; northwest of Kupyansk toward Monachynivka; north of Kupyansk near Radkivka and Dvorichanske and toward Kolodyazne; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Pishchane and toward Kurylivka; and west of Kupyansk near Myrove on December 12 and 13.[45] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Kupyansk and near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (south of Kupyansk).[46]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 68th Motorized Rifle Division (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) reportedly continue to operate in Kupyansk.[47]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on December 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka, north of Borova near Novoplatonivka, and southeast of Borova near Chervonyi Stav and toward Druzhelyubivka and Novoserhiivka on December 12 and 13.[48]

Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 13 indicates that Ukrainian forces have likely recaptured positions in southern Karpivka (northwest of Lyman).[49]

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Karpivka.[50]

Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Serednie, Drobysheve, and Yarova and toward Novoselivka, and Oleksandrivka; north of Lyman near Novyi Myr and Stavky; and east of Lyman near Torske and Zarichne on December 12 and 13.[51]

Ukrainian 11th Army Corps (AC) Spokesperson Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets reported on December 12 that Russian forces are attempting to attack Lyman by bypassing Yampil (southeast of Lyman) from the north and south and warned that the situation in Yampil may worsen if Russian forces continue these operations.[52] Zaporozhets noted that poor weather conditions are the main factor inhibiting Ukrainian defensive operations near Yampil. Zaporozhets stated that Russian forces are primarily attacking in small groups from the Serebryanske forest area (southeast of Lyman) and will likely attempt to concentrate personnel in the area. Zaporozhets stated that water features — likely the Siverskyi Donets River — are preventing Russian forces near Yampil from supporting Russian offensive operations near Serebryanka and Dronivka (both east of Yampil across the Siverskyi Donets River in the Siversk direction). Zaporozhets stated that Lyman is a more important objective for Russian forces than Siversk in future operations against Slovyansk.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Svyato-Pokrovske (south of Siversk).[53]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized Svyato-Pokrovske and advanced northwest of Siversk.[54]

Russian forces attacked near and within Siversk; northwest of Siversk, near Yampil and Platonivka, and toward Zakitne, Ozerne, and Dibrova; northeast of Siversk, near Serebryanka; and south of Siversk near Svyato-Pokrovske and Pereizne, on December 12 and 13.[55]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 6th and 123rd motorized rifle brigades (both of the 3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue to operate in Siversk.[56] Elements of the 85th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd CAA) are reportedly operating near Pazeno (southwest of Siversk).[57] Elements of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd CAA) are reportedly operating along the T-0513 Siversk-Lyman highway (west to northwest of Siversk).[58]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area on December 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

[Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka map]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced south of and within Kostyantynivka and toward Berestok (south of Kostyantynivka).[59] A Russian milblogger refuted other milbloggers’ claims that Russian forces seized Sofiivka (southwest of Druzhkivka).[60]

Russian forces attacked near and toward Kostyantynivka; north of Kostyantynivka toward Pryvillya; northeast of Kostyantynivka near Chasiv Yar and toward Minkivka; east of Kostyantynivka near Oleksandro-Shultyne; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Pleshchiivka, Kleban-Byk, Shcherbynivka, and Ivanopillya; south of Kostyantynivka near Yablunivka; southwest of Kostyantynivka toward Stepanivka; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Sofiivka on December 12 and 13.[61]

The commander of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostyantynivka direction reported on December 13 that Russian forces are only infiltrating into the outskirts of Kostyantynivka and refuted claims of street fighting within the town.[62] The Ukrainian brigade commander stated that foggy weather conditions allow Russian forces to infiltrate in groups of one to two, while also enabling Ukrainian forces to conduct logistics operations.

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (150th Motorized Rifle Division, CAA, SMD) and 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are reportedly operating in Sofiivka.[63] Drone operators of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Rusyn Yar.[64] First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the 57th Spetsnaz Company (8th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Sofiivka.[65]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on December 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on December 13 that Russian forces advanced in Toretske (east of Dobropillya).[66]

Russian forces attacked east of Dobropillya near Nove Shakhove and southeast of Dobropillya near Dorozhnie, Pankivka, and Zapovidne on December 12 and 13.[67] A Russian milblogger claimed on December 13 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked from Toretske.[68]

A Russian milblogger claimed on December 13 that Russian forces have reduced offensive operations in the Dobropillya direction.[69]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Shakhove (east of Dobropillya).[70] Elements of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment are reportedly continuing to operate in the Dobropillya direction.[71]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on December 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on December 13 shows Russian forces operating in central Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) during what ISW assesses to have been a Russian infiltration mission.[72] ISW assesses that this event did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) at the time.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in central Myrnohrad.[73]

Russian forces attacked near and within Pokrovsk; northwest of Pokrovsk near Hryshyne; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske, Sukhetske, and toward Bilytske; east of Pokrovsk near Rivne and near and within Myrnohrad and Svitle; south of Pokrovsk near Leontovychi; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Udachne, and Molodetske on December 12 and 13.[74] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on December 13 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Pokrovsk and Svitle.[75]

The Ukrainian 7th Air Assault Corps of the Air Assault Forces reported on December 13 that Ukrainian forces continue to control northern Pokrovsk and are conducting raids south of the Donetska railway.[76] The corps noted that Russian sources are employing footage from central rather than northern Pokrovsk to support claims of the seizure of Pokrovsk.

A Russian milblogger claimed on December 12 that Russian forces are experiencing an artillery shell shortage in strikes against Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk).[77]

The Ukrainian General Staff and Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported on December 12 and 13 that Ukrainian SSO FP-2 long-range drone operators struck Russian troop concentrations near Myrnohrad and Rodynske.[78]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 506th and 589th motorized rifle regiments (both of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, 2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) reportedly continue to operate in Pokrovsk.[79] Elements of the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) are reportedly operating in Myrnohrad.[80] Zala reconnaissance drone operators of the 7th Unmanned Systems Regiment (reportedly under the operational control of the Central Grouping of Forces) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.[81]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on December 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka itself; northeast of Novopavlivka near Novomykolaivka; and south of Novopavlivka near FIliya and Dachne on December 12 and 13.[82]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 90th Tank Division (41st CAA, CMD) reportedly continue to operate in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[83]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on December 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Oleksandrivka itself; northeast of Oleksandrivka near Zelenyi Hai and Oleksandrohrad; and southeast of Oleksandrivka near Vorone, Verbove, Sosnivka, Vyshneve, Oleksiivka, and Krasnohirske on December 12 and 13.[84] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Orestopil (southeast of Oleksandrivka).[85]

Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian military targets in occupied Donetsk Oblast on December 12. The Ukrainian General Staff and the Ukrainian SSO reported on December 12 and 13 that Ukrainian forces conducted an FP-2 long-range drone strike against an ammunition and fuel depot of the Russian 1435th Motorized Rifle Regiment (reportedly of the 2nd CAA, CMD) in occupied Avdiivske, Donetsk Oblast (roughly 45 kilometers from the frontline).[86]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction on December 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on December 12 and 13 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied buildings in northern and central Hulyaipole during what ISW assesses to have been Russian infiltration missions.[87] ISW assesses that these events did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) at this time.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Hulyaipole and east of Varvarivka (northwest of Hulyaipole).[88]

Russian forces attacked near and within Hulyaipole itself; northwest of Hulyaipole near Dobropillya and Varvarivka and toward Andriivka and Herasymivka; north of Hulyaipole near Solodke, Zlahoda, and Pryvillya; and northeast of Hulyaipole near Pryvilne and Rybne on December 12 and 13.[89]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating on the outskirts of Vysoke (east of Hulyaipole).[90] Drone operators and other elements of the 16th Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Brigade (EMD), the 305th Artillery Brigade, and the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (both of the 5th CAA, EMD) are reportedly operating near and within Hulyaipole.[91] Elements of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and EMD) are reportedly conducting FAB guided glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian forces in Hulyaipole.[92]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked west of Orikhiv near Novoandriivka, Stepnohirsk, and Prymorske and south of Orikhiv near Novodanylivka on December 12 and 13.[93]

Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces refuted on December 12 Russian claims that Russian forces seized Novodanylivka and published geolocated footage showing 12 Russian servicemembers surrendering to Ukrainian forces north of Novodanylivka.[94]

Order of Battle: Sapper elements of the Russian 7th Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly continue to operate near Prymorske and Stepnohirsk.[95] Drone operators of the 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) reportedly continue to operate in the Zaporizhia direction.[96]

Russian forces continued limited ground assaults in the Kherson direction on December 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked east of Kherson City near the Antonivskyi Bridge on December 12 and 13.[97]

Order of Battle: Artillery elements of the Russian 98th VDV Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Novotyanhynka (northeast of Kherson City).[98] Elements of the 331st VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division) reportedly continue to operate in the Kherson direction.[99]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

See topline text.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pardoned 123 political prisoners on December 13 in exchange for the United States lifting sanctions against Belarusian potash.[100] Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya stated that Lukashenko decided at the last minute to send 114 of the released prisoners to Ukraine rather than to Lithuania, as planned, and that Ukraine had not been ready to accept the released individuals.[101] US Special Envoy to Belarus John Cole stated on December 13 that Lukashenko also agreed to stop Belarusian weather balloons from conducting incursions into Lithuanian airspace.[102]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.