Nicholas Carl

Iran Update, May 19, 2023

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are consolidating their security footprint in northern Ninewa Province, which will likely inc...

Iran Update, May 18, 2023

Iran Update, May 16, 2023

Iran Update, May 15, 2023

Iranian leaders are stoking conflict between Israel and Palestinian militias, likely to enable the IRGC to transfer military equipment in...

Iran Update, May 2, 2023

Iran Update, April 27, 2023

The domestic Iranian information space is currently shaped such that violence against religious figures is being viewed as part of escala...

Iran Update, April 25, 2023

Qom Provincial Governor Mohammad Taghi Shah Cheraghi stated that the provincial government should take “negative measures” against unveil...

Iran Update, April 24, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei briefly lost control of his audience during a speech to Basij students on April 18, indicating the degree to ...

Iran Update, April 21, 2023

Former President Hassan Rouhani has made national referenda the focus of the Iranian political discourse, forcing the regime into a compl...

Iran Update, April 20, 2023

The IRGC is conducting a media campaign against former President Hassan Rouhani likely to alienate him further from the political establi...

Iran Update, April 19, 2023

Iran Update, April 18, 2023

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with several key regime powerbrokers on April 18, possibly to promote a pragmatic hardlin...

Iran Update, April 17, 2023

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani has allowed Iran—via its proxies—to expand its military influence in Iraq, specifically Kirk...

Iran Update, April 14, 2023

Iran Update, April 13, 2023

Iran Update, April 12, 2023

Iran Update, April 7, 2023

Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) have indicated that they seek to contain and deescalate their recent flareup with Israel—at least for t...

Iran Update, April 6, 2023

Hamas conducted a large-scale rocket attack from southern Lebanon into Israel on April 6 possibly as part of the larger pattern of escala...

Iran Update, April 4, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reaffirmed his commitment to enforcing the mandatory hijab law during a meeting with senior regime officials ...

Iran Update, March 30, 2023

Iran and its proxies may target US forces in Syria in retaliation for multiple Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and Iranian-backed forces in...

Iran Update, March 27, 2023

Iran Update, March 23, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has trapped the Iranian regime by focusing public and government attention on improving the economy—an issue ...

Iran Update, March 22, 2023

Iran Update, March 21, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shut down intra-regime debates about political reform to address protester grievances and instead confined th...

Iran Update, March 20, 2023

Iranian security leaders have announced in recent days that they will resume enforcing the mandatory hijab law with a confrontational app...

Iran Update, March 17, 2023

Some Iranian leaders continue to refuse to make the necessary changes that will meaningfully address popular frustrations.

Iran Update, March 16, 2023

Iran Update, March 13, 2023

Iran Update, March 10, 2023

The Iranian regime is continuing efforts to dissuade Iranian citizens from celebrating Chahar Shanbeh Souri to forestall potential protes...

Iran Update, March 9, 2023

The Iranian regime likely assesses that it is losing its cultural campaign for Iranian women. Iranian women are reportedly defying the ma...

Iran Update, March 8, 2023

Iran Update, March 7, 2023

Iran Update, March 6, 2023

Over 110 separate student poisonings occurred throughout Iran on March 6.[i] Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They ar...

Iran Update, March 3, 2023

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid suggested that the Iranian regime may be responsible for or complicit in the recent chemical a...

Iran Update, February 28, 2023

Iran Update, February 27, 2023

Iran Update, February 24, 2023

Iranian regime security forces escalated against prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid on February 24 after months of relative restr...

Iran Update, February 21, 2023

The Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what pattern of anti-regime activity will charact...

Iran Update, February 16, 2023

Iran and its proxies may be preparing for a major effort with military elements in northern Syria. Senior officers from the IRGC Quds For...

Iran Update, February 13, 2023

The IRGC Quds Force is likely coordinating a large-scale effort to consolidate its control and influence over critical transportation rou...

Iran Update, February 9, 2023

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid escalated rhetorically against the regime on February 9, expressing support for reformist call...

Iran Update, February 6, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken several public-facing measures in recent days likely to alleviate public frustrations toward the re...

Iran Crisis Update, February 3, 2023

The Iranian regime is in a steady pattern of escalation with prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, which risks stoking sectarian te...

Iran Crisis Update, January 31, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 29, 2023

Israel conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28, according to ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 26, 2023

Ongoing disruptions to Iran’s energy supplies may be generating severe air pollution.

Iran Crisis Update, January 25, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 24, 2023

Syrian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ali Mahmoud Abbas discussed deepening military cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Te...

Iran Crisis Update, January 23, 2023

Protest activity in Iran increased on January 23, particularly among current petrochemical employees and retired education and telecommun...

Iran Crisis Update, January 22, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 20, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 18, 2023

Protest activity in Iran may increase on January 19-20. Protest organizers have issued widespread calls for demonstrations on these days....

Iran Crisis Update, January 17, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 16, 2023

Ongoing gas shortages have sparked protests in northeastern Iran.

Iran Crisis Update, January 15, 2023

Iranian protest organizers circulated calls for the international community, and especially European parties, to designate the Islamic Re...

Iran Crisis Update, January 14, 2023

The Iranian judiciary announced on January 14 the execution of Alireza Akbari—a former deputy defense minister and British-Iranian dual n...

Iran Crisis Update, January 13, 2023

Some protest organizers in Iran are trying to push the protest movement into a new phase—one that could include more militant activity ag...

Iran Crisis Update, January 12, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 11, 2023

CTP recorded no protests in Iran on January 11, 2023 for the first time since September 16, 2022.

Iran Crisis Update, January 10, 2023

The Iranian regime is refocusing on enforcing widespread adherence to the mandatory hijab law after briefly and informally relaxing such ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 9, 2023

Protest coordinators and organizations may have successfully deterred the judiciary from executing two arrested protesters in Iran on Jan...

Iran Crisis Update, January 8, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 7, 2023 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to empower hardline security figures to enforce his uncompromising position toward the protests and...

Iran Crisis Update, January 4, 2023

Protester umbrella organizations appear to disagree on the timing of the upcoming planned protests.

Iran Crisis Update, January 3, 2023

The organizational structure of the protest movement is continuing to evolve and morph as its leaders try to cohere the movement.

Iran Crisis Update, January 2, 2023

The Iranian state security services have intensified their protest crackdown and social oppression in recent days.

Iran Crisis Update, December 31

Recent comments from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders reflect the ongoing divisions within the regime, and especially th...

Iran Crisis Update, December 30

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid is likely trying to balance his political positions to maximize his domestic support and achie...

Iran Crisis Update, December 27

Iran Crisis Update, December 26

Protest coordinators and organizations are encouraging citizens to demonstrate more regularly and spontaneously rather than awaiting plan...

Iran Crisis Update, December 24

The Iranian Supreme Court upheld the death sentence of 22-year-old protester Mohammad Ghobadlou on December 24 after rejecting his appeal.

Iran Crisis Update, December 23

The Iranian regime is likely in a mounting confrontation with citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan Province. Izeh has seen weeks of violence since...

Iran Crisis Update, December 22

Social media accounts reported that Iranian security forces have begun violently killing and mass arresting citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan P...

Iran Crisis Update, December 21

Iran Crisis Update, December 20

Iran Crisis Update, December 19

Some protest coordinators and organizations are trying to reclaim religion from the regime, essentially arguing that one can be devoutly ...

Iran Crisis Update, December 18

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and significant parts of his inner circle are continuing to misdiagnose the core problems driving the ongoing...

Iran Crisis Update, December 15

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is likely conducting an information operation to discredit the neighborhood youth protest organiza...

Iran Crisis Update, December 14

The Iranian economy appears to be entering a period of potentially significant disruption.

Iran Crisis Update, December 13

The Iranian regime has replaced key clerics responsible for indoctrinating a significant portion of the security forces, possibly to impr...

Iran Crisis Update, December 11

Some Iranian political and religious leaders are debating the regime’s use of the death penalty against arrested protesters.

Iran Crisis Update, December 10

The Iranian regime is using protester executions to instill terror among the population.

Iran Crisis Update, December 8

The Iranian regime executed a protester on December 8 for the first time since the Mahsa Amini protests began.

Iran Crisis Update, December 6

Countrywide strikes continued throughout Iran on December 6.

Iran Crisis Update, December 5

Protest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly on December 5—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizat...

Iran Crisis Update, December 4

Western media inaccurately reported that the Iranian regime abolished its morality patrol on December 4.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3

Iran Crisis Update, December 3

Iran Crisis Update, December 2

The Mashhad Neighborhood Youth issued further instructions for the planned protests on December 5-7. The Mashhad group called for street ...

Iran Crisis Update, December 1

Protesters in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province rhetorically defended prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid against the regim...

Iran Crisis Update, November 30

Protest activity may increase on December 5-7. The recent calls for protests may highlight the increasing organization and sophistication...

Iran Crisis Update, November 29

Some Iranian protesters celebrated the US victory over Iran in the World Cup on November 29.

Iran Crisis Update, November 26

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests on November 26.

Iran Crisis Update, November 25

Protests continued but did not surge across Iran on November 24 and 25 despite calls for protests.

Iran Crisis Update, November 23

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase in the coming days. Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...

Iran Crisis Update, November 21

The Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 16

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to discourage prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid from publicly criticizing the regime have ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 15

Iran Crisis Update, November 14

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase from November 15 to 17. Protest coordinators and organizers have reiterated their calls...

Iran Crisis Update, November 12

Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide demonstrations from November 15 to 17 to commemorate the three-year an...

Iran Crisis Update, November 11

Iran Crisis Update, November 10

The ongoing protests are creating fractures within the Iranian hardliner camp. Some parliamentarians representing restive border regions ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the eas...

Iran Crisis Update, November 9

Iran and its proxies may attack US positions in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian convoy in eastern...

Iran Crisis Update, November 8

Protests may increase in the coming days to commemorate the regime’s brutal crackdown in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on Sept...

Iran Crisis Update, November 7

Some elements of the Iranian regime have suggested political reform to assuage protesters’ frustrations, although such reform is highly u...

Iran Crisis Update, November 6

The regime continued linking the ongoing protests with terrorism on November 6 as part of an information operation to delegitimize protes...

Iran Crisis Update, November 5

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid may begin regularly instigating protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province rather tha...

Iran Crisis Update, November 3

Protesters coordinated extensively to respond to the regime crackdown in Karaj, possibly reflecting growing organization within the movem...

Iran Crisis Update, November 2

Iran is signaling its readiness to attack Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil ostensibly in retaliation for the Shiraz terror attack but prim...

Iran Crisis Update, November 1

American and Saudi officials have warned of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil, according to the Wall Street J...

Iran Crisis Update, October 31

The regime has begun indicting and sentencing arrested protesters as part of the increasingly harsh and uncompromising stance that the re...

Iran Crisis Update, October 30

The regime is escalating its protest crackdown in a way that could fuel an enduring and increasingly violent uprising against the politic...

Iran Crisis Update, October 27

Iran Crisis Update, October 26

The ongoing, anti-regime protests in Iran expanded significantly on October 26, occurring in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces. These pr...

Iran Crisis Update, October 25

Iran Crisis Update, October 24

Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian c...

Iran Crisis Update, October 23

Iranian university and high school students are sustaining the momentum of the ongoing protest movement, leading the demonstrations into ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 22

Iran Crisis Update, October 21

The regime’s use of extreme violence against protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province is likely entrenching long-term frustration ag...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Iran Crisis Update, October 20

Anti-regime protests continued to subside in extent and scale on October 20 but may increase on October 22 and 26.

Iran Crisis Update, October 19

Anti-regime protests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Many instances of recent pro...

Iran Crisis Update, October 18

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among the political elite.

Iran Crisis Update, October 17

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began a three-day military exercise along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on October 17 likely t...

Iran Crisis Update, October 15

A major fire broke out at the Evin prison in Tehran on October 15, and the regime used live rounds and tear gas against prisoners and nea...

Iran Crisis Update, October 14

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired servicemembers and other affiliated officers to suppress protests...

Iran Crisis Update, October 13

Iran Crisis Update, October 12

Iranian officials continue to ignore protester grievances and are instead emphasizing their readiness to brutally crack down.

Iran Crisis Update, October 11

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 10

The ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran. There are at least three active b...

Iran Crisis Update, October 9

Iran may be preparing to escalate militarily against its foreign adversaries, including the US, in response to the ongoing, anti-regime p...

Iran Crisis Update, October 7

Regime disinformation about protester deaths may further stoke anti-regime sentiment and even revitalize anti-regime demonstrations.

Iran Crisis Update, October 6

Iran may attack the US, Israeli, and/or Saudi targets in retaliation for the role Iranian officials claim those countries have played in ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 5

Anti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shia Imam and is a nati...

Iran Crisis Update, October 4

University and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in Iran—at least for the moment. Anti-regime ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 3

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.

Iran Crisis Update, October 2

The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 1

Iranian protesters successfully planned anti-regime demonstrations in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 despite reg...

Iran Crisis Update, September 30

Iran Crisis Update, September 29

The Iranian regime’s extensive internet and telecommunications censorship is severely limiting the open-source information available on o...

Iran Crisis Update, September 28

Circumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties.

Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories 

This report presents five different scenarios that could emerge in a post-Khamenei Iran.

Russia and Iran double down on their strategic partnership

Russia and Iran have expanded their strategic partnership since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This partnership will likely cha...

Iranian Proxies May Attack US in Response to Iraqi Political Crisis

Iran may direct its proxies to attack American and partner targets in the Middle East in the coming weeks.

Technical specifications and historic usage of Iranian drones possibly provided to Russia

Iran has used the drone models that Russia may acquire—the Shahed-129 and Shahed-191—extensively throughout the Middle East, including in...

Iran’s Drone Inventory and Potential Sales to Russia

Iran has developed an extensive inventory of domestically produced drones of varying capabilities and ranges.  It has used some of those ...

Iran File: Iran and Turkey face off in Iraq

Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain growing Turkish economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leade...

Iran File: Iranian missile attack on Erbil highlights growing threat to US and partners 

Whatever it takes to end it: Iran's shift toward more oppressive governance

Iran File: US must rethink its deterrence posture against Iran

Iran File: Tehran faces multiple regional crises

Iran File: Tehran faces tough choices in Afghanistan

Regional Actors Eye Threats and Opportunities in Taliban Takeover

Iran File: Meet the Raisi Administration

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has drawn personnel from the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), economic empire, and Jud...

The Iranian Proxy Response to the US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue

Iran File: Iran intensifies its escalation around the Strait of Hormuz

Iran File: Iranian Proxies Increase Attacks on US Forces to Catalyze a US Withdrawal from Iraq

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: Khamenei faces difficult decisions in the presidential election

Iran File: Ghalibaf empowers Iran’s coercive apparatus

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: Ghalibaf and allies move to take presidency and parliament

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: IRGC participation in the election grows

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: Reformists show signs of fracturing

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: Hardliners face electoral challenges in crowded field

Iran prepared to deter and defend against a military strike while increasing leverage for talks with the Biden administration

Iraqi militant attack on Riyadh could signal a larger shift in Iran’s regional approach

Iran File: Iran Prepares for Nuclear Talks with Joe Biden’s Administration

Iran File: Regime Infighting and Supreme Leader Succession

A quick look at supreme leader succession

Iran File: Iran accelerates nuclear program development

Iran may be shipping military equipment to Venezuela

Iran says it is developing ‘offensive’ combat airpower

Yemen File: Iran may be increasingly seeking to promote al Houthi relations to threaten regional rivals

Iran File: Iranian leaders seek to capitalize on the expiration of the arms embargo

Iran’s expanding tool kit for internal suppression

Yemen File: Al Houthi offensive escalates violence in central Yemen

Iran File: Tehran increases local security and strengthens ties to Venezuela amid economic crisis

Iran-Venezuela cooperation expands to security realm

Iran looks abroad to handle currency crisis

The growing Iranian threat around the Strait of Hormuz

Iran File: Hardliners eye greater control over the information space

Iran File: Newly Empowered Hardliners Move against Rouhani

Iran File: Civil Disorder Adopts New Forms in Iran during Pandemic

Iran File: Hardliners Promote Greater Authoritarianism Amidst Mounting Crises

U.S. Must Be Wary as Iran’s Parliament Veers Hard Right

Iran File: February 18, 2020

Iran File: January 29, 2020

Iran’s Reserve of Last Resort: Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces Order of Battle

Qassem Soleimani’s death, the prospect of further US-Iranian military escalation, and the reemergence of large protests in Iran in recent...

Iran File: December 16, 2019

Iran File: November 22, 2019

Iran File: November 18, 2019 Crisis Update

Iran File: November 12, 2019

Iran File: October 21, 2019

Iran condemned Turkey’s offensive into Syria and fears that it could threaten Syria’s stability.

Iran File: October 10, 2019 Iraq Crisis Update

Iran File: October 8, 2019 Iraq Crisis Update

Iran File: October 7, 2019

The Iranian regime is attempting to divide the US from its Gulf partners to degrade the US maximum pressure campaign.

Iran Hit the West Where it Hurts: At the Pump

The Iranian regime is likely responsible for this weekend’s attack on Saudi oil facilities that caused the largest spike in oil prices in...

Iran File: Iraqi Proxies Prepare for Potential Escalation

Iran File: Tehran and Tel Aviv’s Evolving Multifront War

Israel launched an air campaign against Iran in Iraq and will participate in the US-led military coalition in the Persian Gulf.

Iran File: The IRGC Seeks Expanded Role in Fighting US Sanctions

Khamenei Prepares for the JCPOA’s Potential Collapse

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed reservations about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iranian nuclear de...

Iran File: Tehran ups Pressure on Europe Further

AEOI will quadruple its low-enriched uranium (LEU) “production capacity.”

Iran’s Balancing Act: Khamenei’s Strategic Thinking at a Critical Juncture

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is in a precarious situation.

Iran File: Nuclear Deal’s Future Falls into Uncertainty

The Iranian regime will renege on some of its commitments to the JCPOA to pressure Europe into offering Iran immediate and concrete econo...

Iran File: Next Up on the Regime’s Hit List: Instagram

The Iranian Judiciary may soon block the popular social media application Instagram.

Iran File: Iran Could Soon Punch Back After the FTO Designation

The Iranian regime has yet to retaliate for the U.S. designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist ...

Iran File: Flood Gates May Open to More Protests

Iran may threaten maritime trade going through the Strait of Hormuz in coming weeks as U.S. economic pressure against the regime reaches ...

Iran File: Iran's Nearing Dire Straits

Iran may threaten maritime trade going through the Strait of Hormuz in coming weeks as U.S. economic pressure against the regime reaches ...

Raisi’s Future Looks Bright for Supreme Leadership

Hojjat ol Eslam Ebrahim Raisi is becoming a top contender to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran File: Tehran prepares for post-war Syria

The Iranian regime is setting conditions to exploit international Syrian reconstruction efforts to mitigate the effects of U.S. economic ...

Zarif’s resignation feint can’t stop mounting hardliner pressure

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani could have suffered a major blow when Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tendered his resignation on ...

European actions remain insufficient to appease Iran

The Iranian regime will continue to push the envelope of aggressive regional behavior and its missile program despite European concerns.

The Islamic Republic Nears a Turning Point

Forty years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran is on the brink of change. Iran will transform – but not necessarily for the better.

Rouhani pressures Europe to continue Oil Trade with Iran

President Hassan Rouhani is leveraging Iran’s space program to pressure Europe to continue importing Iranian oil despite the reimposition...

Iran File: Shahroudi’s Death leads to Rising Stocks for two Potential Supreme Leaders

Iran File: A U.S. withdrawal from Syria empowers the IRGC and regime’s economic influence in the region

A U.S. military withdrawal from Syria will grant Iran an opportunity to expand its economic influence in Syria.

Iran File: Iran’s armed forces prepare for Sunni insurgency in Baluchistan

Iran’s armed forces are likely preparing for intensified insurgent activities in southeastern Iran following an increase in anti-regime m...

Iran File: Hardliners Yield Back on Attacks, for Now

Iranian hardliners appear to be reaching regime red-lines that will limit their further attacks on President Hassan Rouhani and his alli...

Iran File: Khuzestan remains a tinderbox for any future anti-regime riots

Hardliners renew attacks against Rouhani administration following reimposed U.S. sanctions

Hardliners renewed their political attacks against senior members of President Hassan Rouhani’s administration following the reimposition...

Iran signals readiness to defend against Israeli strike

Iran likely signalled its readiness to defend against a potential Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities.

Iran File: Rouhani Submits to Hardliner Pressure

The reimposition of U.S. sanctions and the Iranian economy’s continued decline will give regime hardliners greater political and economic...

Iran File: Hostage Crisis risks straining Iran-Pakistan Relations

The Iran File is a weekly intelligence summary by the Critical Threats Project Iran team. This briefing synthesizes events from the past ...

Iran File: Law Enforcement Readies for Next Round of Anti-Regime Protests

The Iran File is a weekly intelligence summary by the Critical Threats Project Iran team. This briefing synthesizes events from the past ...

Iran File: Forthcoming U.S. sanctions sound death knell for the Rouhani Administration

The reimposition of U.S. sanctions against Iran on November 5 will embolden regime hardliners and weaken President Hassan Rouhani’s polit...

Iran File: ISIS and IRGC cycle of violence likely to escalate

ISIS and anti-regime insurgencies will try to capitalize on heightened levels of anti-regime sentiments and conduct future attacks on reg...

Iran News Round Up - September 24, 2018

Iran News Round Up - September 14, 2018

Iran News Round Up - September 7, 2018

Iran News Round Up - August 31, 2018

Iran News Round Up - August 24, 2018

Iran News Round Up - August 13, 2018

Iran News Round Up - August 6, 2018

Iran News Round Up - July 26, 2018

Iran News Roundup - July 20, 2018

Iran News Round Up - July 13, 2018

Iran News Round Up - July 6, 2018

Iran's Hardliners Will Be the First Winners of the Protest Movement

The Iranian regime is going nowhere fast.

Iran News Round Up - June 29, 2018

Iran News Round Up - June 21, 2018

Iran News Round Up - June 14, 2018

Iran News Round Up - June 5, 2018

Iran News Round Up - May 31, 2018

Iran News Round Up - May 24, 2018

Iran News Round Up - May 16, 2018

Iran News Round Up - May 10, 2018

Iran News Round Up - May 2, 2018

Iran News Round Up - April 25, 2018

Iran News Round Up - April 16, 2018

Iran News Round Up - April 13, 2018

Iran News Round Up - April 6, 2018

Iran News Round Up - March 27, 2018

Iran News Round Up - March 21, 2018

Iran News Round Up - March 16, 2018

Iran News Round Up - March 9, 2018

Iran News Round Up - March 05, 2018

Iran News Round Up - February 28, 2018

Iran News Round Up - February 16, 2018

Iran News Round Up - February 13, 2018

Iran News Round Up - February 10, 2018

Iran News Round Up - February 8, 2018

Iran News Round Up - February 7, 2018

Iran News Round Up - February 5, 2018

Iran News Round Up - February 1, 2018

Iran News Round Up - January 30, 2018

Iran News Round Up - January 29, 2018

Iran News Round Up - January 25, 2018