Nicholas Carl

Nicholas Carl is the Middle East portfolio manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute where he specializes in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Nicholas graduated from St. John Fisher College in Rochester, New York with a B.A. in Political Science.

Position	Middle East Portfolio Manager
Twitter	@NicholasACarl

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Iran Update, April 24, 2024

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Kelly Campa Peter Mills Andie Parry Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld 2 days ago ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 23, 2024

Nicholas Carl Karolina Hird Ashka Jhaveri Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Peter Mills Johanna Moore Andie Parry 3 days ago ANALYSIS

Hamas military spokesperson Abu Obeida called on April 23 for the anti-Israel protest movement in Jordan to escalate.[i] Abu Obeida calle...

Why You Can’t Be an Iran Hawk and a Russia Dove

George Barros Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri Frederick W. Kagan April 18, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 17, 2024

Nicholas Carl Ashka Jhaveri Kelly Campa Alexandra Braverman Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Johanna Moore April 17, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 14, 2024

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Alexandra Braverman Andie Parry April 14, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 13, 2024

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Ashka Jhaveri Johanna Moore Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld April 13, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 9, 2024

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Alexandra Braverman Johanna Moore Kathryn Tyson Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld April 09, 2024 ANALYSIS

IRGC Navy Commander Rear Adm. Ali Reza Tangsiri implicitly threatened the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during an interview with Lebanese He...

Iran Update, April 7, 2024

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Peter Mills Andie Parry April 07, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 6, 2024

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri April 06, 2024 ANALYSIS

Palestinian fighters have claimed several attacks targeting Israeli forces near Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip in recent days.

Iran Update, April 4, 2024

Nicholas Carl Rachel Friedman Alexandra Braverman Kathryn Tyson Johanna Moore Andie Parry Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld April 04, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 3, 2024

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kathryn Tyson Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld April 03, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 1, 2024

Brian Carter Kathryn Tyson Amin Soltani Peter Mills Andie Parry Nicholas Carl April 01, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 30, 2024

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry March 30, 2024 ANALYSIS

Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force struck Palestinian fighters and militia infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip. Southern Gaza ...

Iran Update, March 29, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Andie Parry March 29, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri met with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Teh...

Iran Update, March 27, 2024

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Kathryn Tyson Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri March 27, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 26, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Alexandra Braverman Ashka Jhaveri March 26, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 18, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kelly Campa Anne McGill Kathryn Tyson Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri March 18, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 14, 2024

Nicholas Carl Elizabeth Volynsky-Lauzon Alexandra Braverman Johanna Moore Peter Mills Ashka Jhaveri March 14, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 11, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Karolina Hird Anne McGill Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Amin Soltani Andie Parry March 11, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 10, 2024

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Andie Parry March 10, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 7, 2024

Nicholas Carl Ahmad Omid Arman Alexandra Braverman Johanna Moore Peter Mills Andie Parry Amin Soltani March 07, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 4, 2024

Nicholas Carl Marcus Mildenberger Liam Karr Andie Parry Peter Mills Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri March 04, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 29, 2024

Nicholas Carl Ahmad Omid Arman Rachel Friedman Kathryn Tyson Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Alexandra Braverman Ashka Jhaveri Johanna Moore February 29, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 26, 2024

Nicholas Carl Ahmad Omid Arman Alexandra Braverman Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry February 26, 2024 ANALYSIS

The Israel Defense Forces announced that its 162nd Division uncovered a Hamas tunnel network connecting the Central Gaza Governorate to t...

Iran Update, February 25, 2024

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Andie Parry February 25, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 24, 2024

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Peter Mills Johanna Moore Kathryn Tyson Ashka Jhaveri February 24, 2024 ANALYSIS

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued clearing operations in Zaytoun neighborhood, southeastern Gaza City.

Iran Update, February 20, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld February 20, 2024 ANALYSIS

Russia may be setting conditions to supplant the United States as a security partner in Iraq in anticipation of the United States possibl...

Iran Update, February 16, 2024

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri February 16, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 15, 2024

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri February 15, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 12, 2024

Nicholas Carl Karolina Hird Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Brian Carter Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld February 12, 2024 ANALYSIS

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah and the IRGC are training Russian drone ope...

Iran Update, February 11, 2024

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Peter Mills Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri February 11, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 10, 2024

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Kathryn Tyson Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri February 10, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 2, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Brian Carter Johanna Moore Amin Soltani February 02, 2024 ANALYSIS

The United States struck over 85 Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force and Iranian-backed militia targets in Iraq and Syr...

Iran Update, February 1, 2024

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Alexandra Braverman Peter Mills Amin Soltani Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Kathryn Tyson Ashka Jhaveri February 01, 2024 ANALYSIS

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to operate in the northern Gaza Strip. The commander of the IDF Southern Command met with divis...

Iran Update, January 30, 2024

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Alexandra Braverman Andie Parry Peter Mills Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri January 30, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 28, 2024

Alexandra Braverman Ashka Jhaveri Nicholas Carl January 28, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 27, 2024

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry January 27, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 25, 2024

Nicholas Carl Andie Parry Johanna Moore Kathryn Tyson Alexandra Braverman Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld January 25, 2024 ANALYSIS

The United States and the Iraqi federal government will soon begin negotiations on Iraq's current security arrangement with US-led coalit...

Iran Update, January 23, 2024

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Andie Parry Alexandra Braverman Ashka Jhaveri January 23, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 21, 2024

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Alexandra Braverman Andie Parry Brian Carter January 21, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 18, 2024

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Alexandra Braverman Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri January 18, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 15, 2024

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld January 15, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 14, 2024

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Andie Parry Brian Carter January 14, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 10, 2024

Nicole Wolkov Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Andie Parry Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Kathryn Tyson Ashka Jhaveri January 10, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 9, 2024

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Johanna Moore Alexandra Braverman Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Peter Mills Kathryn Tyson Andie Parry January 09, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 7, 2024

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Alexandra Braverman Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri January 07, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 6, 2024

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Andie Parry Peter Mills Brian Carter January 06, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 4, 2024

Nicholas Carl Riley Bailey Kathryn Tyson Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Peter Mills Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Johanna Moore January 04, 2024 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, January 2, 2024

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Alexandra Braverman Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Brian Carter Ashka Jhaveri January 02, 2024 ANALYSIS

Israeli forces are transitioning to the third phase of their operations in the northern Gaza Strip, which will very likely enable Hamas t...

Iran Update, December 31, 2023

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri December 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 30, 2023

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Amin Soltani Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld December 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 28, 2023

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Brian Carter December 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 26, 2023

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Andie Parry Brian Carter December 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 21, 2023

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri December 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 19, 2023

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Brian Carter Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri December 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 16, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Andie Parry Brian Carter December 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Israel Defense Forces concluded its probe into the accidental killing of three hostages by an IDF unit in Shujaiya.

Iran Update, December, 15, 2023

Kathryn Tyson Alexandra Braverman Amin Soltani Peter Mills Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Ashka Jhaveri Brian Carter December 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 14, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Alexandra Braverman Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri Kathryn Tyson December 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 12, 2023

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Kathryn Tyson Brian Carter Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri December 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Palestinian militias are attempting to resist Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis. The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson reiter...

Iran Update, December 10, 2023

Nicholas Carl Riley Bailey Andie Parry Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri December 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 9, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri December 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances.

Iran Update, December 7, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Alexandra Braverman Kathryn Tyson Andie Parry December 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 5, 2023

Nicholas Carl Alexandra Braverman Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Andie Parry Johanna Moore Brian Carter December 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Palestinian militia fighters continued to use more sophisticated tactics to target Israeli forces throughout the Gaza Strip on December 5...

Iran Update, December 3, 2023

Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry Nicholas Carl Brian Carter December 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, December 2, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Brian Carter December 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 30, 2023

Nicholas Carl Peter Mills Kathryn Tyson Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry November 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran Update, November 28, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Andie Parry Brian Carter November 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Israel and Hamas both reported at least one violation of the temporary truce agreement in the Gaza Strip, but neither side escalated the ...

Iran Update, November 27, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Peter Mills Kathryn Tyson Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry November 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 26, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri November 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 25, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Andie Parry November 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Hamas released a second round of hostages after Hamas accused Israel of violating the humanitarian pause agreement and threatened to dela...

Iran Update, December 24, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Brian Carter November 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 19, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Andie Parry Brian Carter Ashka Jhaveri November 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran Update, November 18, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri November 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Israeli forces are expanding offensive operations into Gaza City.

Iran Update, November 21, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Amin Soltani Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri Johanna Moore November 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Israel said its forces encircled Jabalia as Palestinian militias conducted attacks on the Israeli lines of advance.

Iran Update, November 16, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri November 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 14, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Brian Carter November 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 12, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Brian Carter November 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 11, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri November 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 9, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Brian Carter Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills Ashka Jhaveri November 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 7, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Peter Mills Kathryn Tyson Brian Carter November 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

How the ‘Axis of Resistance’ Lets Iran Destabilize the Middle East

Nicholas Carl November 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 2, 2023

Nicholas Carl Christina Harward Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Kathryn Tyson Ashka Jhaveri Brian Carter November 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, November 1, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Kathryn Tyson Andie Parry Johanna Moore November 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Lebanese Hezbollah-affiliated al Mayadeen reported that an Israeli armored unit advanced from the northwestern Gaza Strip south along the...

Iran Update, October 31, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Brian Carter Kathryn Tyson Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri October 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, October 30, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Peter Mills Andie Parry Brian Carter October 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US ...

Iran Update, October 29, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri October 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, October 28, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri October 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel.

Iran Update, October 25, 2023

Andie Parry Peter Mills Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Kathryn Tyson Brian Carter Nicholas Carl October 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are pursuing a coordinated strategy to (1) deter Israel from trying to destroy Hamas in the G...

Iran Update, October 26, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld Kathryn Tyson Peter Mills October 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, October 24, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Andie Parry Peter Mills Brian Carter October 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, October 22, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Andie Parry Brian Carter October 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, October 21, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Andie Parry Johanna Moore October 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire at their usual rate into Israel.

Iran Update, October 19, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Peter Mills Ashka Jhaveri October 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran Update, October 17, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri October 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran Update, October 16, 2023

Nicholas Carl Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri Johanna Moore October 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Palestinian militias continued drone and indirect fire attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel, on October 15. The rate of small a...

Iran Update, October 15, 2023

Nicholas Carl Andie Parry Johanna Moore October 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran Update, October 14, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri October 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Hamas continued its ground and rocket attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel.

Iran Update, October 13, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri October 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, October 12, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry October 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update Special Edition, October 7, 2023

Nicholas Carl October 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, October 4, 2023

Nicholas Carl Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani October 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

IRGC personnel backfilled a formerly Wagner-held position in Sukhnah in central Syria on September 28, supporting Iranian efforts to esta...

Iran Update, October 2, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri October 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, September 14, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri September 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

The IRGC Quds Force and LH are trying to significantly increase their military infrastructure in Mayadin in eastern Syria.

Iran Update, September 13, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Andie Parry September 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, September 12, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Johanna Moore September 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

1. Iran has successfully extracted some security concessions from Iraq, which will likely reduce the threat Iranian leaders perceive eman...

Iran Update, September 8, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry September 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, September 7, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry September 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, September 5, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri September 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

1. Syrian regime forces are financially exploiting the displacement of civilians amid clashes in Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlle...

Iran Update, September 1, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri September 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 31, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri August 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 29, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry August 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 25, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri August 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 24, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry August 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 22, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Andie Parry August 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 21, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry August 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Anti-regime protests in southern Syria have continued to expand, despite the beginning of the work week.

Iran Update, August 18, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Andie Parry August 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 16, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore August 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 14, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Peter Mills Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri August 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 11, 2023

Nicholas Carl Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld August 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 9, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brandon Kanell Johanna Moore Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld August 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 7, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore August 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian-backed militia Ashab al Kahf called on August 5 for protests outside the US embassy in Baghdad. These calls come as Ashab al Kahf...

Iran Update, August 4, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani August 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, August 2, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri August 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, July 31, 2023

Nicholas Carl Karolina Hird Johanna Moore July 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 27, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Andie Parry June 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian-backed militants are building new military sites south of Damascus City likely as part of the Iranian effort to secure transporta...

Iran Update, June 22, 2023

Nicholas Carl Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld June 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 20, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri June 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

An IRGC-affiliated news outlet tracked a US-Iraqi logistics convoy, possibly to signal Iranian intent to direct an attack on US interests...

Iran Update, June 15, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri June 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 13, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri June 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Lebanese Hezbollah provided drone training for Iranian-backed militias in eastern Syria. Iranian-backed militias could use these drones t...

Iran Update, June 9, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry June 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, June 8, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri June 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

An IRGC Quds Force-affiliated recruitment center in Deir ez Zor City is recruiting Syrians for counter-US operations in Syrian Democratic...

Iran Update, June 7, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry June 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian and Russian military officials met to discuss expelling the United States from Syria, which may indicate Russia’s intent to help ...

Iran Update, June 6, 2023

Nicholas Carl Ashka Jhaveri Johanna Moore Andie Parry June 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian leaders are preparing to resume their campaign to expel US forces from the Middle East by attacking and killing US service member...

Iran Update, May 19, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Johanna Moore May 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are consolidating their security footprint in northern Ninewa Province, which will likely inc...

Iran Update, May 18, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Andie Parry May 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 16, 2023

Nicholas Carl Karolina Hird Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri May 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, May 15, 2023

Nicholas Carl Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore May 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian leaders are stoking conflict between Israel and Palestinian militias, likely to enable the IRGC to transfer military equipment in...

Iran Update, May 2, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld May 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 27, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

The domestic Iranian information space is currently shaped such that violence against religious figures is being viewed as part of escala...

Iran Update, April 25, 2023

Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Qom Provincial Governor Mohammad Taghi Shah Cheraghi stated that the provincial government should take “negative measures” against unveil...

Iran Update, April 24, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani April 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei briefly lost control of his audience during a speech to Basij students on April 18, indicating the degree to ...

Iran Update, April 21, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Former President Hassan Rouhani has made national referenda the focus of the Iranian political discourse, forcing the regime into a compl...

Iran Update, April 20, 2023

Nicholas Carl Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani April 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

The IRGC is conducting a media campaign against former President Hassan Rouhani likely to alienate him further from the political establi...

Iran Update, April 19, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 18, 2023

Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with several key regime powerbrokers on April 18, possibly to promote a pragmatic hardlin...

Iran Update, April 17, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore April 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani has allowed Iran—via its proxies—to expand its military influence in Iraq, specifically Kirk...

Iran Update, April 14, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld April 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore April 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 12, 2023

Nicholas Carl Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles April 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, April 7, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles April 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) have indicated that they seek to contain and deescalate their recent flareup with Israel—at least for t...

Iran Update, April 6, 2023

Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani Zachary Coles April 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Hamas conducted a large-scale rocket attack from southern Lebanon into Israel on April 6 possibly as part of the larger pattern of escala...

Iran Update, April 4, 2023

Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld April 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reaffirmed his commitment to enforcing the mandatory hijab law during a meeting with senior regime officials ...

Iran Update, March 30, 2023

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore March 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran and its proxies may target US forces in Syria in retaliation for multiple Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and Iranian-backed forces in...

Iran Update, March 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles March 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld March 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has trapped the Iranian regime by focusing public and government attention on improving the economy—an issue ...

Iran Update, March 22, 2023

Nicholas Carl Brian Carter Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shut down intra-regime debates about political reform to address protester grievances and instead confined th...

Iran Update, March 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian security leaders have announced in recent days that they will resume enforcing the mandatory hijab law with a confrontational app...

Iran Update, March 17, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Some Iranian leaders continue to refuse to make the necessary changes that will meaningfully address popular frustrations.

Iran Update, March 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 13, 2023

Nicholas Carl Karolina Hird Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani March 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 10, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime is continuing efforts to dissuade Iranian citizens from celebrating Chahar Shanbeh Souri to forestall potential protes...

Iran Update, March 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime likely assesses that it is losing its cultural campaign for Iranian women. Iranian women are reportedly defying the ma...

Iran Update, March 8, 2023

Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Amin Soltani March 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, March 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick March 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Over 110 separate student poisonings occurred throughout Iran on March 6.[i] Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They ar...

Iran Update, March 3, 2023

Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid suggested that the Iranian regime may be responsible for or complicit in the recent chemical a...

Iran Update, February 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld February 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl February 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Update, February 24, 2023

Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld February 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian regime security forces escalated against prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid on February 24 after months of relative restr...

Iran Update, February 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what pattern of anti-regime activity will charact...

Iran Update, February 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran and its proxies may be preparing for a major effort with military elements in northern Syria. Senior officers from the IRGC Quds For...

Iran Update, February 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles February 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

The IRGC Quds Force is likely coordinating a large-scale effort to consolidate its control and influence over critical transportation rou...

Iran Update, February 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid escalated rhetorically against the regime on February 9, expressing support for reformist call...

Iran Update, February 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken several public-facing measures in recent days likely to alleviate public frustrations toward the re...

Iran Crisis Update, February 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime is in a steady pattern of escalation with prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, which risks stoking sectarian te...

Iran Crisis Update, January 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl January 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Israel conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28, according to ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld January 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ongoing disruptions to Iran’s energy supplies may be generating severe air pollution.

Iran Crisis Update, January 25, 2023

Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Annika Ganzeveld Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Syrian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ali Mahmoud Abbas discussed deepening military cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Te...

Iran Crisis Update, January 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Protest activity in Iran increased on January 23, particularly among current petrochemical employees and retired education and telecommun...

Iran Crisis Update, January 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl January 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl January 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick January 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Protest activity in Iran may increase on January 19-20. Protest organizers have issued widespread calls for demonstrations on these days....

Iran Crisis Update, January 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 16, 2023

Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ongoing gas shortages have sparked protests in northeastern Iran.

Iran Crisis Update, January 15, 2023

Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iranian protest organizers circulated calls for the international community, and especially European parties, to designate the Islamic Re...

Iran Crisis Update, January 14, 2023

Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian judiciary announced on January 14 the execution of Alireza Akbari—a former deputy defense minister and British-Iranian dual n...

Iran Crisis Update, January 13, 2023

Johanna Moore Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Some protest organizers in Iran are trying to push the protest movement into a new phase—one that could include more militant activity ag...

Iran Crisis Update, January 12, 2023

Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 11, 2023

Annika Ganzeveld Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

CTP recorded no protests in Iran on January 11, 2023 for the first time since September 16, 2022.

Iran Crisis Update, January 10, 2023

Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime is refocusing on enforcing widespread adherence to the mandatory hijab law after briefly and informally relaxing such ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 9, 2023

Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Protest coordinators and organizations may have successfully deterred the judiciary from executing two arrested protesters in Iran on Jan...

Iran Crisis Update, January 8, 2023

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, January 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to empower hardline security figures to enforce his uncompromising position toward the protests and...

Iran Crisis Update, January 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Protester umbrella organizations appear to disagree on the timing of the upcoming planned protests.

Iran Crisis Update, January 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl January 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

The organizational structure of the protest movement is continuing to evolve and morph as its leaders try to cohere the movement.

Iran Crisis Update, January 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl January 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Iranian state security services have intensified their protest crackdown and social oppression in recent days.

Iran Crisis Update, December 31

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Recent comments from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders reflect the ongoing divisions within the regime, and especially th...

Iran Crisis Update, December 30

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid is likely trying to balance his political positions to maximize his domestic support and achie...

Iran Crisis Update, December 27

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 26

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest coordinators and organizations are encouraging citizens to demonstrate more regularly and spontaneously rather than awaiting plan...

Iran Crisis Update, December 24

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Dana Alexander Gray Nicholas Carl December 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian Supreme Court upheld the death sentence of 22-year-old protester Mohammad Ghobadlou on December 24 after rejecting his appeal.

Iran Crisis Update, December 23

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime is likely in a mounting confrontation with citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan Province. Izeh has seen weeks of violence since...

Iran Crisis Update, December 22

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Social media accounts reported that Iranian security forces have begun violently killing and mass arresting citizens in Izeh, Khuzestan P...

Iran Crisis Update, December 21

Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 20

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick December 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 19

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some protest coordinators and organizations are trying to reclaim religion from the regime, essentially arguing that one can be devoutly ...

Iran Crisis Update, December 18

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and significant parts of his inner circle are continuing to misdiagnose the core problems driving the ongoing...

Iran Crisis Update, December 15

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is likely conducting an information operation to discredit the neighborhood youth protest organiza...

Iran Crisis Update, December 14

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian economy appears to be entering a period of potentially significant disruption.

Iran Crisis Update, December 13

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime has replaced key clerics responsible for indoctrinating a significant portion of the security forces, possibly to impr...

Iran Crisis Update, December 11

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl December 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some Iranian political and religious leaders are debating the regime’s use of the death penalty against arrested protesters.

Iran Crisis Update, December 10

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime is using protester executions to instill terror among the population.

Iran Crisis Update, December 8

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime executed a protester on December 8 for the first time since the Mahsa Amini protests began.

Iran Crisis Update, December 6

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Countrywide strikes continued throughout Iran on December 6.

Iran Crisis Update, December 5

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly on December 5—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizat...

Iran Crisis Update, December 4

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Western media inaccurately reported that the Iranian regime abolished its morality patrol on December 4.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3

George Barros Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 3

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl December 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, December 2

Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl December 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Mashhad Neighborhood Youth issued further instructions for the planned protests on December 5-7. The Mashhad group called for street ...

Iran Crisis Update, December 1

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl December 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protesters in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province rhetorically defended prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid against the regim...

Iran Crisis Update, November 30

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest activity may increase on December 5-7. The recent calls for protests may highlight the increasing organization and sophistication...

Iran Crisis Update, November 29

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some Iranian protesters celebrated the US victory over Iran in the World Cup on November 29.

Iran Crisis Update, November 26

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests on November 26.

Iran Crisis Update, November 25

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protests continued but did not surge across Iran on November 24 and 25 despite calls for protests.

Iran Crisis Update, November 23

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase in the coming days. Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...

Iran Crisis Update, November 21

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 16

Frederick W. Kagan Amin Soltani Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to discourage prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid from publicly criticizing the regime have ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 15

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, November 14

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Amin Soltani Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase from November 15 to 17. Protest coordinators and organizers have reiterated their calls...

Iran Crisis Update, November 12

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide demonstrations from November 15 to 17 to commemorate the three-year an...

Iran Crisis Update, November 11

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, November 10

LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick November 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The ongoing protests are creating fractures within the Iranian hardliner camp. Some parliamentarians representing restive border regions ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9

Mason Clark Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the eas...

Iran Crisis Update, November 9

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Nicholas Carl November 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran and its proxies may attack US positions in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian convoy in eastern...

Iran Crisis Update, November 8

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Johanna Moore Karolina Hird Nicholas Carl November 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protests may increase in the coming days to commemorate the regime’s brutal crackdown in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on Sept...

Iran Crisis Update, November 7

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Kathryn Tyson Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some elements of the Iranian regime have suggested political reform to assuage protesters’ frustrations, although such reform is highly u...

Iran Crisis Update, November 6

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

The regime continued linking the ongoing protests with terrorism on November 6 as part of an information operation to delegitimize protes...

Iran Crisis Update, November 5

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Dana Alexander Gray November 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid may begin regularly instigating protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province rather tha...

Iran Crisis Update, November 3

LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl November 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Protesters coordinated extensively to respond to the regime crackdown in Karaj, possibly reflecting growing organization within the movem...

Iran Crisis Update, November 2

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran is signaling its readiness to attack Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil ostensibly in retaliation for the Shiraz terror attack but prim...

Iran Crisis Update, November 1

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl November 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

American and Saudi officials have warned of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil, according to the Wall Street J...

Iran Crisis Update, October 31

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

The regime has begun indicting and sentencing arrested protesters as part of the increasingly harsh and uncompromising stance that the re...

Iran Crisis Update, October 30

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

The regime is escalating its protest crackdown in a way that could fuel an enduring and increasingly violent uprising against the politic...

Iran Crisis Update, October 27

LJ Trevette Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, October 26

Frederick W. Kagan Brian Carter Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

The ongoing, anti-regime protests in Iran expanded significantly on October 26, occurring in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces. These pr...

Iran Crisis Update, October 25

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, October 24

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Amin Soltani Dana Alexander Gray Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian c...

Iran Crisis Update, October 23

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian university and high school students are sustaining the momentum of the ongoing protest movement, leading the demonstrations into ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 22

Nicholas Carl Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Zachary Coles October 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, October 21

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The regime’s use of extreme violence against protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province is likely entrenching long-term frustration ag...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl George Barros Riley Bailey Kathryn Tyson Karolina Hird October 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Iran Crisis Update, October 20

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Anti-regime protests continued to subside in extent and scale on October 20 but may increase on October 22 and 26.

Iran Crisis Update, October 19

Amin Soltani Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Johanna Moore Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Anti-regime protests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Many instances of recent pro...

Iran Crisis Update, October 18

Frederick W. Kagan Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among the political elite.

Iran Crisis Update, October 17

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began a three-day military exercise along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on October 17 likely t...

Iran Crisis Update, October 15

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

A major fire broke out at the Evin prison in Tehran on October 15, and the regime used live rounds and tear gas against prisoners and nea...

Iran Crisis Update, October 14

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired servicemembers and other affiliated officers to suppress protests...

Iran Crisis Update, October 13

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, October 12

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian officials continue to ignore protester grievances and are instead emphasizing their readiness to brutally crack down.

Iran Crisis Update, October 11

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 10

Frederick W. Kagan Dana Alexander Gray Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran. There are at least three active b...

Iran Crisis Update, October 9

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran may be preparing to escalate militarily against its foreign adversaries, including the US, in response to the ongoing, anti-regime p...

Iran Crisis Update, October 7

Frederick W. Kagan Brian Carter Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Regime disinformation about protester deaths may further stoke anti-regime sentiment and even revitalize anti-regime demonstrations.

Iran Crisis Update, October 6

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran may attack the US, Israeli, and/or Saudi targets in retaliation for the role Iranian officials claim those countries have played in ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 5

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick October 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Anti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shia Imam and is a nati...

Iran Crisis Update, October 4

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl October 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

University and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in Iran—at least for the moment. Anti-regime ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 3

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.

Iran Crisis Update, October 2

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 1

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl October 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iranian protesters successfully planned anti-regime demonstrations in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 despite reg...

Iran Crisis Update, September 30

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl September 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran Crisis Update, September 29

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick September 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Iranian regime’s extensive internet and telecommunications censorship is severely limiting the open-source information available on o...

Iran Crisis Update, September 28

Frederick W. Kagan Zachary Coles Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl September 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Circumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties.

Iran after Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl September 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

This report presents five different scenarios that could emerge in a post-Khamenei Iran.

Russia and Iran double down on their strategic partnership

Katherine Lawlor Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl August 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia and Iran have expanded their strategic partnership since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This partnership will likely cha...

Iranian Proxies May Attack US in Response to Iraqi Political Crisis

Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles August 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran may direct its proxies to attack American and partner targets in the Middle East in the coming weeks.

Technical specifications and historic usage of Iranian drones possibly provided to Russia

Nicholas Carl July 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran has used the drone models that Russia may acquire—the Shahed-129 and Shahed-191—extensively throughout the Middle East, including in...

Iran’s Drone Inventory and Potential Sales to Russia

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan July 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran has developed an extensive inventory of domestically produced drones of varying capabilities and ranges. It has used some of those ...

Iran File: Iran and Turkey face off in Iraq

Nicholas Carl Zachary Coles Ezgi Yazici June 13, 2022 BRIEF

Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain growing Turkish economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leade...

Iran File: Iranian missile attack on Erbil highlights growing threat to US and partners

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl March 18, 2022 BRIEF

Whatever it takes to end it: Iran's shift toward more oppressive governance

Nicholas Carl December 16, 2021 ANALYSIS

Iran File: US must rethink its deterrence posture against Iran

Nicholas Carl November 18, 2021 BRIEF

Iran File: Tehran faces multiple regional crises

Nicholas Carl October 25, 2021 BRIEF

Iran File: Tehran faces tough choices in Afghanistan

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick September 02, 2021 BRIEF

Regional Actors Eye Threats and Opportunities in Taliban Takeover

Ezgi Yazici Virginia Wang Trey Sprouse J. Matthew McInnis Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl Mason Clark Emily Estelle Perez August 20, 2021 ANALYSIS

Iran File: Meet the Raisi Administration

Nicholas Carl Kitaneh Fitzpatrick August 18, 2021 BRIEF

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has drawn personnel from the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), economic empire, and Jud...

The Iranian Proxy Response to the US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue

Nicholas Carl Katherine Lawlor August 10, 2021 ANALYSIS

Iran File: Iran intensifies its escalation around the Strait of Hormuz

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Nicholas Carl August 06, 2021 BRIEF

Iran File: Iranian Proxies Increase Attacks on US Forces to Catalyze a US Withdrawal from Iraq

Camille Jablonski Nicholas Carl Katherine Lawlor July 09, 2021 BRIEF

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: Khamenei faces difficult decisions in the presidential election

Nicholas Carl June 10, 2021 BRIEF

Iran File: Ghalibaf empowers Iran’s coercive apparatus

Nicholas Carl May 05, 2021 BRIEF

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: Ghalibaf and allies move to take presidency and parliament

Nicholas Carl April 22, 2021 BRIEF

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: IRGC participation in the election grows

Nicholas Carl March 22, 2021 BRIEF

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: Reformists show signs of fracturing

Nicholas Carl March 04, 2021 BRIEF

Iranian Presidential Election Tracker: Hardliners face electoral challenges in crowded field

Nicholas Carl February 18, 2021 BRIEF

Iran prepared to deter and defend against a military strike while increasing leverage for talks with the Biden administration

Nicholas Carl February 12, 2021 ANALYSIS