Grace Mappes
462 Results
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Davit Gasparyan Grace Mappes October 04, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Haley Zehrung Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey September 27, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Davit Gasparyan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans September 03, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2024
George Barros Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 01, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 25, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 24, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov August 14, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward July 15, 2024 ANALYSISA recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia's demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the K...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey July 12, 2024 ANALYSISWestern and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will no...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2024
George Barros Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov July 02, 2024 ANALYSISThe interplay between ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka directions indicates that the Russian...
Iran Update, June 26, 2024
Nicholas Carl Grace Mappes Kathryn Tyson Katherine Wells Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Annika Ganzeveld June 26, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov June 25, 2024 ANALYSISTwo major international bodies—the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) — announced decisions...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Karolina Hird May 14, 2024 ANALYSISThe pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours, and the pattern of Rus...
Positional Warfare in Alexander Svechin’s Strategy
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Pieter Garicano May 13, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey May 07, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocrati...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey April 28, 2024 ANALYSISRecent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the fro...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2024
Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov April 21, 2024 ANALYSISUS Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, incl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov April 10, 2024 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian military’s effective use of drones on the battlefield cannot fully mitigate Ukraine’s theater-wide shortage of critical mun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Christina Harward Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov April 09, 2024 ANALYSISRussian state media highlighted Russia and China’s joint effort to combat perceived Western “dual containment” targeting Russia and China...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2024
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey April 06, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov April 03, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2024
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey March 30, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that delays in American security assistance have forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey March 29, 2024 ANALYSISThe Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organization and a known tool within the Russian hybrid wa...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans March 21, 2024 ANALYSISThe Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these rese...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 14, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2024
George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward March 08, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a ceasefire in Ukraine would allow Russia to rebuild its forces and means for futu...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Karolina Hird March 05, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine destroyed the Project 22160 Sergei Kotov large patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) off the coast of the Kerch Strait on the ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 29, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 29, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans February 28, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Christina Harward Riley Bailey February 27, 2024 ANALYSISRussian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird February 26, 2024 ANALYSISSweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 24, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite grow...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Grace Mappes February 23, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 20, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine has been defending itself against illegal Russian military intervention and aggression for 10 years.[1] Russia violated its commi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes February 17, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have established “full control” over Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast as Russi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird February 12, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Gu...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Christina Harward Angelica Evans Riley Bailey February 02, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin evoked a wide Russian social and economic mobilization reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s total mobilizat...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 01, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey January 11, 2024 ANALYSISThe reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation e...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Christina Harward Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 02, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin identified the West as Russia’s “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defea...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey December 12, 2023 ANALYSISUS intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes December 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Karolina Hird December 09, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging wea...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Grace Mappes Karolina Hird December 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussia continues to reckon with the economic ramifications of labor shortages partially resulting from the war in Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov December 03, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov November 30, 2023 ANALYSISA recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Christina Harward Angela Howard November 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched the largest drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion overnight on November 24 to 2...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey November 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov November 17, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather con...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Grace Mappes November 12, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward November 08, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8. The Ukrainian General...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey November 05, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 04, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the war in Ukraine is not a “stalemate” in a comment to the media about Ukrainian ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 01, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on November 1 that the war in Ukraine has taken on a positional nature an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans October 28, 2023 ANALYSISRemnants of the Wagner Group appear to be fighting in the Avdiivka direction subordinate to Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) controlled ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans October 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have likely repelled another intensified Russian offensive effort towards Avdiivka in the past several days and inflicte...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey October 20, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on October 20 and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian militar...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird October 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian sources continued to discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 1...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Karolina Hird October 16, 2023 ANALYSISRussia likely deployed elements of at least two Central Military District (CMD) brigades to reinforce offensive operations by Donetsk Peo...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey October 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14, 2023
Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans October 14, 2023 ANALYSISUS and Ukrainian officials reported on October 12 and 13 that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expre...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Christina Harward October 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes October 09, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird October 08, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward Karolina Hird October 06, 2023 ANALYSISKarolina Hird, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, and Mason Clark
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward October 05, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 20th Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 and promoted multiple long-standing Russian infor...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird October 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Christina Harward September 29, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 28, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28. The Ukrainian General Staf...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 26, 2023 ANALYSISThe tactical situation in Verbove remains unclear as Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on Sept...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes September 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov September 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey September 16, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Christina Harward September 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 14, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 13, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 12, 2023 ANALYSISRussian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Grace Mappes September 09, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Karolina Hird September 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird September 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in wes...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Grace Mappes September 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on September 2.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 31, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans August 30, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 26, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources r...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 23, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 17, 2023 ANALYSIS“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintrod...
Iran Update, August 17, 2023
Grace Mappes Annika Ganzeveld Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri Amin Soltani August 17, 2023 ANALYSISSyrians demonstrated against worsening economic conditions and the Syrian regime’s mismanagement of the economy across the country. Iran...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 15, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luh...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 13, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the w...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 10, 2023 ANALYSISThe Wagner Group continues to maintain a presence at facilities in Belarus and the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russia remains unc...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 02, 2023 ANALYSISA dispute among prominent voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin’s sensitivity to Russian reporting about setback...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2023
Mason Clark Annika Ganzeveld Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird August 01, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submers...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 31, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 29, 2023 ANALYSISSegments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird July 27, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, al...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 24, 2023 ANALYSISLikely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Thomas Bergeron Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov George Barros July 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 18, 2023 ANALYSISThe July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than break...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 09, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 07, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes July 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front made marginal advances on July 3. The Russia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros June 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reput...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko June 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird June 19, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes June 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2023
Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 17, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 16, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukra...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 12, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukra...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes June 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 10, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 10.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird June 08, 2023 ANALYSISUkraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider coun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2023 ANALYSISThe destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherso...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 04, 2023 ANALYSISElements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Layne Philipson June 02, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 31, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine fo...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 28, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 27, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operatio...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian authorities ended the “counterterrorism” operation in Belgorod Oblast and claimed to have defeated the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 22, 2023 ANALYSISElements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 19, 2023 ANALYSISA Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukraini...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 17, 2023 ANALYSISRussian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 15, 2023 ANALYSISLeaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the l...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 12, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 08, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 07, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, A...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 06, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen “Akhmat” troop...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 05, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anti...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2023
Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 02, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Angela Howard April 29, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 27, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 25, 2023 ANALYSISSenior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful U...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes April 24, 2023 ANALYSISRussian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird April 17, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of t...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird George Barros Grace Mappes April 11, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin passed legislation to use tools of digital authoritarianism to digitize and improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko April 10, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian politi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2023
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 03, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Grace Mappes March 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko March 23, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey March 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 17, 2023 ANALYSISChinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 15, 2023 ANALYSISThe overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 09, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes March 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fig...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023
George Barros Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko March 01, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 25, 2023 ANALYSISUK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 24, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 23, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko February 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on Februar...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions fo...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 16, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird February 14, 2023 ANALYSISMoscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...
Iran Update, February 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Johanna Moore Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Nicholas Carl February 06, 2023 ANALYSISSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken several public-facing measures in recent days likely to alleviate public frustrations toward the re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kitaneh Fitzpatrick George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 30, 2023 ANALYSISWestern, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kimberly Kagan Frederick W. Kagan January 29, 2023 ANALYSISThis report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 28, 2023 ANALYSISConventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023
Nicole Wolkov Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 24, 2023 ANALYSISA coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 21, 2023 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Uk...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey January 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko January 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely respon...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 11, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2023
Mason Clark Katherine Lawlor George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) and Ru...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 05, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey January 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 19, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird December 18, 2022 ANALYSISThis report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeti...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 17, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird December 13, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 08, 2022 ANALYSISGerman Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard December 06, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concer...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros December 04, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko December 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird November 28, 2022 ANALYSISRecent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes November 27, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in east...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 26, 2022 ANALYSISThe overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to inc...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 25, 2022 ANALYSISReports of poorly staffed, provisioned, and supplied Russian mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space, exposing the...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 21, 2022 ANALYSISTwo days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20
Grace Mappes Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko November 20, 2022 ANALYSISThis report discusses the rising influence of the milblogger (military correspondent or voenkor) community in Russia despite its increasi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 19, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 18, 2022 ANALYSISRussian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall conscription cycle is underway, likely further f...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 11, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9
Mason Clark Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 09, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the eas...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8
Mason Clark Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 08, 2022 ANALYSISIranian state-run outlet Nour News Agency reported that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7
Mason Clark Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 07, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry on Novembe...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 01, 2022 ANALYSISIran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 29, 2022 ANALYSISLikely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 24, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor October 21, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next seve...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor October 19, 2022 ANALYSISRussian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18
Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 18, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 14, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko October 08, 2022 ANALYSISA large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko October 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 04, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 01, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 28, 2022 ANALYSISRussian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor September 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Mason Clark Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird September 21, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its fal...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 18, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and forma...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending agai...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16
Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor September 16, 2022 ANALYSISThe discovery of mass graves and torture chambers in liberated Izyum confirm previous ISW assessments that the Bucha atrocities were embl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 11, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10
Mason Clark Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 11, 2022 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9
Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 09, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of Septembe...