Grace Mappes

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023

Russian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2023

Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in wes...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on September 2.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30, 2023

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2023

Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2023

“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintrod...

Iran Update, August 17, 2023

Syrians demonstrated against worsening economic conditions and the Syrian regime’s mismanagement of the economy across the country. Iran...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luh...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the w...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2023

The Wagner Group continues to maintain a presence at facilities in Belarus and the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russia remains unc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2023

A dispute among prominent voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin’s sensitivity to Russian reporting about setback...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2023

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submers...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023

Segments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, al...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2023

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than break...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front made marginal advances on July 3. The Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reput...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 10.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2023

Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider coun...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023

The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherso...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3, 2023

Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2023

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2023

The Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine fo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023

Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2023

Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23, 2023

Russian authorities ended the “counterterrorism” operation in Belgorod Oblast and claimed to have defeated the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2023

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023

Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the l...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2023

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2023

Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023

Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen “Akhmat” troop...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2023

The Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2023

Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023

Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2023

Russian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2023

The Kremlin passed legislation to use tools of digital authoritarianism to digitize and improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian politi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2023

Wagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023

Russian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023

Ukrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023

Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fig...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2023

 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023

UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on Februar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions fo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023

Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023

Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023

Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...

Iran Update, February 6, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken several public-facing measures in recent days likely to alleviate public frustrations toward the re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023

Russian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023

This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023

Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023

A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2023

The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Uk...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2023

The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely respon...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2023

Russian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) and Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023

The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18

This report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17

The Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13

Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6

The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concer...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4

Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28

Recent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27

The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in east...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26

The overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to inc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25

Reports of poorly staffed, provisioned, and supplied Russian mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space, exposing the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21

Two days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20

This report discusses the rising influence of the milblogger (military correspondent or voenkor) community in Russia despite its increasi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18

Russian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall conscription cycle is underway, likely further f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16

Russian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12

Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the eas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8

Iranian state-run outlet Nour News Agency reported that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry on Novembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3

Russian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1

Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24

The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next seve...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19

Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18

Russian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15

Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12

Russia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8

A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28

Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27

Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its fal...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18

Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and forma...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17

Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending agai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16

The discovery of mass graves and torture chambers in liberated Izyum confirm previous ISW assessments that the Bucha atrocities were embl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11

Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9

Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of Septembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7

Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3

Ukrainian officials directly stated that the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive is a methodical operation to intentionally degrade Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30

Ukrainian forces began striking Russian pontoon ferries across the Dnipro River on August 29, which is consistent with the start of the U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29

Ukrainian military officials announced the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast on August 29. Ukrainian officials re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that elements of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) reconnected to the Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23

Russian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21

Russian forces’ momentum from territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in late July is likely exhausted, and Russian attacks in east...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20

Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol on August ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in Crimea on August 16. Local report...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15

Elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia reportedly refused to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13

Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that support Russian forces on the right...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14

Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharki...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29

A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28. Ukraine and Russia ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28

The Russian grouping in Donetsk Oblast is likely seeking to capitalize on recent marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut by continuing to att...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27

Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24

Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23

Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22

The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keepin...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21

Russian forces conducted a few limited and highly localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational tempo is not marke...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20

The current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway but will likely culm...