Nicole Wolkov
Position | Author |
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2025
George Barros Olivia Gibson Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov January 06, 2025 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22, 2024
George Barros William Runkel Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward December 22, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2024
George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Angelica Evans October 10, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans October 07, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2024
George Barros Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Davit Gasparyan Angelica Evans October 06, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Davit Gasparyan Grace Mappes October 04, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Davit Gasparyan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans September 03, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2024
George Barros Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 01, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 25, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 24, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov August 14, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward July 15, 2024 ANALYSISA recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia's demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the K...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2024
George Barros Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov July 02, 2024 ANALYSISThe interplay between ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka directions indicates that the Russian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov June 25, 2024 ANALYSISTwo major international bodies—the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) — announced decisions...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2024
George Barros Karolina Hird Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans June 21, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continues to invoke nuclear threats as part of his ongoing information campaign to discourage further We...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2024
George Barros Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 04, 2024 ANALYSISSelect Russian military commentators continue to complain about superior Ukrainian drone and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities on the ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2024
George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans May 30, 2024 ANALYSISUS President Joe Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets —...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Karolina Hird May 14, 2024 ANALYSISThe pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours, and the pattern of Rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey May 07, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocrati...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov April 30, 2024 ANALYSISRussian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the Avdiivka area on April 30 for the first time in several days, while Ukrainian s...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey April 28, 2024 ANALYSISRecent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the fro...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2024
Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov April 21, 2024 ANALYSISUS Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, incl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey April 19, 2024 ANALYSISThe US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov April 10, 2024 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian military’s effective use of drones on the battlefield cannot fully mitigate Ukraine’s theater-wide shortage of critical mun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Christina Harward Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov April 09, 2024 ANALYSISRussian state media highlighted Russia and China’s joint effort to combat perceived Western “dual containment” targeting Russia and China...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov April 03, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2, 2024
George Barros Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Riley Bailey April 02, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on April 2 that lowers the Ukrainian military’s mobilization age from 27 to 25 years ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans March 21, 2024 ANALYSISThe Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these rese...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2024
George Barros Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans March 06, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated on March 6 that Ukraine will try to seize the initiative an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 29, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 29, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird February 26, 2024 ANALYSISSweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 24, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite grow...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Grace Mappes February 23, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 20, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine has been defending itself against illegal Russian military intervention and aggression for 10 years.[1] Russia violated its commi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird February 12, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Gu...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey February 08, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin attempted to use an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson published on February 8 to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird February 07, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 01, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 20, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans January 20, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin falsely claimed that Russia supports the “unconditional equality” and “sovereignty” of all states in a J...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey January 11, 2024 ANALYSISThe reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation e...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov December 20, 2023 ANALYSISHead of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill made a series of anti-migrant and xenophobic remarks that directl...
Ukrainian Strikes Have Changed Russian Naval Operations in the Black Sea
Kateryna Stepanenko Daniel Mealie Nicole Wolkov December 16, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces launched a successful preemptive strike campaign against the Russian BSF in the summer and fall of 2023, which aimed to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey December 12, 2023 ANALYSISUS intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes December 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans December 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey December 06, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward December 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea on the night of Decemb...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Grace Mappes Karolina Hird December 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussia continues to reckon with the economic ramifications of labor shortages partially resulting from the war in Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov December 03, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov November 30, 2023 ANALYSISA recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February...
Iran Update, November 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Brian Carter Peter Mills Kathryn Tyson Annika Ganzeveld Ashka Jhaveri November 29, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey November 28, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a two-part conception of Russian identity in a speech on November 28: a “Russian nation” – cl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey November 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov November 17, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather con...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Christina Harward November 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian state media released and later retracted reports about the "regrouping" of Russian forces on the east (left) bank of Kherson Obla...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans October 24, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 23, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Christina Harward Karolina Hird October 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussia's domestic production of artillery shells, supplemented by increased ammunition imports from North Korea, will likely allow Russia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey October 20, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on October 20 and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian militar...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird October 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian sources continued to discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 1...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans October 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey October 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14, 2023
Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans October 14, 2023 ANALYSISUS and Ukrainian officials reported on October 12 and 13 that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expre...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 11, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Angelica Evans Karolina Hird October 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Christina Harward October 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes October 09, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward Karolina Hird October 06, 2023 ANALYSISKarolina Hird, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, and Mason Clark
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward October 05, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 20th Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 and promoted multiple long-standing Russian infor...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird October 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov September 30, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Christina Harward September 29, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 28, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28. The Ukrainian General Staf...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros September 23, 2023 ANALYSISISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western Zaporizhia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes September 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov September 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 14, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 13, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 12, 2023 ANALYSISRussian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird September 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird September 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in wes...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Grace Mappes September 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov September 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 03, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on September 2.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 26, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources r...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 23, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov August 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahe...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 15, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luh...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 13, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the w...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey August 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 02, 2023 ANALYSISA dispute among prominent voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin’s sensitivity to Russian reporting about setback...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2023
Mason Clark Annika Ganzeveld Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird August 01, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submers...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 30, 2023 ANALYSISThe lack of Russian milblogger reaction to a Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge represents a notable inflection in Russian reporting ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 29, 2023 ANALYSISSegments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird July 26, 2023 ANALYSIS>hr/>
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov July 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Pri...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 24, 2023 ANALYSISLikely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Thomas Bergeron Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov George Barros July 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey July 22, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff rep...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 18, 2023 ANALYSISThe July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than break...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 10, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLO...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 09, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 07, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes July 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front made marginal advances on July 3. The Russia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 28, 2023 ANALYSISContinued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggest...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros June 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reput...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko June 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s Ju...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minist...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird June 19, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes June 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 16, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukra...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 14, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made gains on June 14.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko June 13, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 12, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukra...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes June 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird June 08, 2023 ANALYSISUkraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider coun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2023 ANALYSISThe destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherso...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 06, 2023 ANALYSISDamage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delt...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 04, 2023 ANALYSISElements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 31, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine fo...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 29, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 28, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2023
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 25, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on May 25 that the Wagner Group began handing over its positions in Bakhmut to the Rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian authorities ended the “counterterrorism” operation in Belgorod Oblast and claimed to have defeated the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 22, 2023 ANALYSISElements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 19, 2023 ANALYSISA Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukraini...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 17, 2023 ANALYSISRussian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 13, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of t...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird May 12, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 10, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 08, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 05, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anti...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Angela Howard April 29, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 25, 2023 ANALYSISSenior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful U...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes April 24, 2023 ANALYSISRussian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird April 17, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of t...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros April 15, 2023 ANALYSISReporting from some Western sources that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin called for Russia to end its war against Ukraine is ina...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird George Barros Grace Mappes April 11, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin passed legislation to use tools of digital authoritarianism to digitize and improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko April 10, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian politi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2023
Mason Clark Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Riley Bailey April 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2023
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 03, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey March 31, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s atte...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 30, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 29, 2023 ANALYSISIranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 29 to review...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko March 23, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Angela Howard Riley Bailey March 20, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 15, 2023 ANALYSISThe overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fig...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 10, 2023 ANALYSISUS intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Mold...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes March 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut bu...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fig...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 25, 2023 ANALYSISUK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 23, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko February 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on Februar...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions fo...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 16, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...
Iran Update, February 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld Kitaneh Fitzpatrick February 15, 2023 ANALYSISProtest coordinators have likely strengthened their organizational capabilities and internal infrastructure ahead of calls for anti-regim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird February 14, 2023 ANALYSISMoscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 08, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 01, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kitaneh Fitzpatrick George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 30, 2023 ANALYSISWestern, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 27, 2023 ANALYSISKremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023
Nicole Wolkov Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.