George Barros

361 Results

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Grace Mappes Karolina Hird 1 day ago ANALYSIS

Russia continues to reckon with the economic ramifications of labor shortages partially resulting from the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Karolina Hird 4 days ago ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov November 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey November 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey November 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a two-part conception of Russian identity in a speech on November 28: a “Russian nation” – cl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov November 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes November 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Angelica Evans November 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird November 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Christina Harward November 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian state media released and later retracted reports about the "regrouping" of Russian forces on the east (left) bank of Kherson Obla...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans October 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros September 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros September 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhi...

Ukraine’s Operations in Bakhmut Have Kept Russian Reserves Away from the South

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Daniel Mealie September 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey August 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Christina Harward Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2023

Mason Clark Annika Ganzeveld Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird August 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submers...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Christina Harward Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey July 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird July 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Thomas Bergeron Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov George Barros July 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey July 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff rep...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward George Barros Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros June 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reput...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko June 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko June 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes June 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird June 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider coun...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherso...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey June 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prior...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Angela Howard April 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes April 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird April 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

This report outlines the current Russian order of battle (ORBAT) in Ukraine, assesses the offensive and defensive capabilities of Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2023

Mason Clark Angela Howard Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko April 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros April 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Reporting from some Western sources that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin called for Russia to end its war against Ukraine is ina...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey April 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird George Barros Grace Mappes April 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin passed legislation to use tools of digital authoritarianism to digitize and improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2023

Mitchell Belcher Will Kielm Daniel Mealie Thomas Bergeron Noel Mikkelsen Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros April 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

ISW is publishing a special edition campaign assessment today, April 9. This report discusses Russia’s religious repressions throughout o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2023

Mason Clark Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Riley Bailey April 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey March 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s atte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko March 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey March 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Angela Howard Riley Bailey March 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fig...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

US intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Mold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut bu...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

George Barros Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko March 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions fo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird George Barros Riley Bailey February 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros February 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kitaneh Fitzpatrick George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kimberly Kagan Frederick W. Kagan January 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Karolina Hird January 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Uk...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Layne Philipson George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey George Barros January 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey January 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros January 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko January 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely respon...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko January 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials specified that a Russian Kh-22 missile struck a residential building in Dnipro City on January 14, killing at least 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13

Mason Clark Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko January 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on the evening of Janua...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12

Mason Clark Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Madison Williams Riley Bailey January 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2023

Mason Clark Katherine Lawlor George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) and Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey December 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angela Howard December 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros December 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Madison Williams George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aim...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros December 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird December 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird December 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Pre...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros December 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3

George Barros Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird November 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Recent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on Octob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros October 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros October 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

A Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longs...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Members of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor October 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next seve...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl George Barros Riley Bailey Kathryn Tyson Karolina Hird October 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor October 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18

Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird September 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s declarations about which categories of Russian males will be exempted from partial mobilization ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor September 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they will hold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird September 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the Februa...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10

Mason Clark Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of Septembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird September 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Karolina Hird September 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) descri...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3

Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Angela Howard Karolina Hird September 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials directly stated that the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive is a methodical operation to intentionally degrade Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his false framing of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a defensive operation to prot...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird August 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that elements of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) reconnected to the Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Karolina Hird August 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 25 decree to increase the size of the Russian military starting in January 2023 is unlikely to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird August 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive opera...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird August 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird August 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in Crimea on August 16. Local report...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia reportedly refused to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird August 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that support Russian forces on the right...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

The US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Angela Howard Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko August 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, b...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson August 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest n...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian forces traded accusations of dangerous shelling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian grouping in Donetsk Oblast is likely seeking to capitalize on recent marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut by continuing to att...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keepin...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a few limited and highly localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational tempo is not marke...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

The current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway but will likely culm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor George Barros Karolina Hird July 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Karolina Hird July 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s July 18 meeting with the commander of the Eastern group of forces Lieutenant General Rustam Mura...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing a measured return from the operational pause and conducted limited ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird July 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian operational pause has concluded on July 16, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause as of July 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Frederick W. Kagan July 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Uk...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird July 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian-backed occupation authorities in Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko July 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are not conducting an operational pause as of July 8 and are ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting ISW’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia’s stated objectives in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird July 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko July 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros July 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29

Grace Mappes George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird June 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and tha...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28

Grace Mappes Mason Clark George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko June 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed, con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, undermining a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21

Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark June 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces and may be in the process of radically reshuffling the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made marginal gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk on June 18, but have largely stalled along other axes of advance. Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12

Grace Mappes George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird June 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird June 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and localized but successful counterattacks against Russian positions throughout Ukraine on...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian fr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces will “accelerate” the “special military operation” in Ukraine in a mee...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will likely further degrade Russian capabilities and lead to further morale breakdowns.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan May 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defens...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and L...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21

Mason Clark George Barros Karolina Hird May 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird May 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City continued to successfully push Russian forces toward the Russia-Ukraine border on Ma...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are likely amassing in Belgorod to reinforce Russian efforts in northern Kharkiv to prevent the ongoing Ukrainian countero...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6

George Barros Mason Clark May 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko May 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. A significant Ukrainian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird May 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30

George Barros Karolina Hird Mason Clark April 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on parts of the city that have suffered the most from Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird April 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made limited advances west of Severodonetsk on April 29 but remain stalled south of Izyum.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances on April 28.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

A briefing by the Russian Deputy Commander of the Central Military District on April 22 reiterated standing Russian objectives in eastern...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin declared victory in the battle of Mariupol. Russian forces will attempt to starve out remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Az...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark April 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing int...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17

George Barros Mason Clark April 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces likely captured the Port of Mariupol on April 16 despite Ukrainian General Staff denials, reducing organized Ukrainian res...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian missile cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, sunk on April 14 after a likely Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12

George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11

George Barros Karolina Hird Mason Clark April 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

US intelligence reported over the weekend of April 9-10 that Russian Army General Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, commander of the Sou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5

Karolina Hird George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark April 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to make little to no progress in frontal assaults to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, their current main effo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3

Karolina Hird George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnip...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark April 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark April 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia’s main effort is now focused on eastern Ukraine, with two subordinate main efforts: capturing the port city of Mariupol and captur...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31

Karolina Hird George Barros Mason Clark March 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take furthe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold thei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28

George Barros Mason Clark March 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks around Kyiv will likely disrupt ongoing Russian efforts to reconstitute forces and resume major offensiv...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued their unsuccessful efforts to move into positions from which to attack or encircle Kyiv, claims by First Deputy ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Mason Clark March 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25 claiming Russia’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, entering the city center on March 24, but conducted few offensive o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and arou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to se...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Local company- and battalion-level attacks by Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March 14-15 likely indicate the largest-scale offensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northea...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after faile...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue their focus on encircling Kyiv. The western envelopment remains bogged down but Russian troops have moved more ra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2022

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark February 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2022

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark February 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark February 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces’ main axes of advance in the last 24 hours focused on Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, and southern Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2022

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark February 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Initial Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark February 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin began a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 likely aimed at full regime change and the occupa...

Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine: Updated Course of Action Assessment

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark Frederick W. Kagan January 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

NATO must reinforce its Eastern flank right now

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan January 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Putin's Likely Course of Action in Ukraine - Part 2

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nataliya Bugayova Frederick W. Kagan December 11, 2021 ANALYSIS

Putin's Likely Course of Action in Ukraine - Part 1

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nataliya Bugayova Frederick W. Kagan December 10, 2021 ANALYSIS

Indicators and Thresholds For Russian Military Operations In Ukraine and/or Belarus

George Barros November 29, 2021 ANALYSIS

Belarus Warning Update: Forced Integration with Russia – Not the Protest Movement– Is Lukashenko’s Biggest Threat

George Barros February 19, 2021 ANALYSIS

Belarus Warning Update: Russia Fields New Motor Rifle Division in Kaliningrad and Conducts Joint Command Training with Belarus

George Barros February 08, 2021 ANALYSIS

Belarus Warning Update: The Kremlin May Have Used Kavkaz 2020 Exercises in Part to Prepare for a Conventional Russian Military Deployment to Belarus

George Barros September 26, 2020 ANALYSIS

Belarus Warning Update: Multiple Russian Military Exercises Occurring in the Western Military District, Belarus, and Moldova

George Barros September 19, 2020 ANALYSIS

Warning: Militarization of Lukashenko’s Response to Belarusian Protests Increases but Without Violence; Moscow Continues to Set Conditions for Intervention

George Barros August 30, 2020 ANALYSIS