George Barros

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5

Russia’s stated objectives in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4

Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3

Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and tha...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed, con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22

Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, undermining a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21

The Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces and may be in the process of radically reshuffling the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18

Russian forces made marginal gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk on June 18, but have largely stalled along other axes of advance. Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17

Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14

The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11

Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7

Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and localized but successful counterattacks against Russian positions throughout Ukraine on...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4

Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian fr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces will “accelerate” the “special military operation” in Ukraine in a mee...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30

Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will likely further degrade Russian capabilities and lead to further morale breakdowns.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29

New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28

Russian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26

Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defens...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25

Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and L...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21

Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17

The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11

Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City continued to successfully push Russian forces toward the Russia-Ukraine border on Ma...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8

Russian forces are likely amassing in Belgorod to reinforce Russian efforts in northern Kharkiv to prevent the ongoing Ukrainian countero...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. A significant Ukrainian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1

Russian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30

A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on parts of the city that have suffered the most from Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29

Russian forces made limited advances west of Severodonetsk on April 29 but remain stalled south of Izyum.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances on April 28.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27

Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22

A briefing by the Russian Deputy Commander of the Central Military District on April 22 reiterated standing Russian objectives in eastern...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21

The Kremlin declared victory in the battle of Mariupol. Russian forces will attempt to starve out remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Az...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing int...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17

Russian forces likely captured the Port of Mariupol on April 16 despite Ukrainian General Staff denials, reducing organized Ukrainian res...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14

The Russian missile cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, sunk on April 14 after a likely Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11

US intelligence reported over the weekend of April 9-10 that Russian Army General Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, commander of the Sou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9

The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5

Russian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4

Russian forces continue to make little to no progress in frontal assaults to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, their current main effo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnip...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2

Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1

Russia’s main effort is now focused on eastern Ukraine, with two subordinate main efforts: capturing the port city of Mariupol and captur...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31

Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take furthe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30

Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29

We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold thei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28

Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks around Kyiv will likely disrupt ongoing Russian efforts to reconstitute forces and resume major offensiv...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26

Russian forces continued their unsuccessful efforts to move into positions from which to attack or encircle Kyiv, claims by First Deputy ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25

The Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25 claiming Russia’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, entering the city center on March 24, but conducted few offensive o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and arou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war.  That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18

Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to se...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17

Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15

Local company- and battalion-level attacks by Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March 14-15 likely indicate the largest-scale offensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14

Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northea...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12

Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11

Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after faile...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7

Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6

The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4

Russian forces continue their focus on encircling Kyiv. The western envelopment remains bogged down but Russian troops have moved more ra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1

Russian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2022

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2022

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26

Russian forces’ main axes of advance in the last 24 hours focused on Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, and southern Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2022

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Initial Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Russian President Vladimir Putin began a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 likely aimed at full regime change and the occupa...

Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine: Updated Course of Action Assessment

NATO must reinforce its Eastern flank right now

Putin's Likely Course of Action in Ukraine - Part 2

Putin's Likely Course of Action in Ukraine - Part 1

Indicators and Thresholds For Russian Military Operations In Ukraine and/or Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: Forced Integration with Russia – Not the Protest Movement– Is Lukashenko’s Biggest Threat

Belarus Warning Update: Russia Fields New Motor Rifle Division in Kaliningrad and Conducts Joint Command Training with Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Forces May Deploy to Syria in Late 2021

Belarus Warning Update: Belarus Confirms Plans to Purchase Advanced Air Defense Systems from Russia

Belarus Warning Update: Putin Pressures Lukashenko to Implement His Previous Integration Concessions

Belarus Warning Update: NEXTA Intensifies Campaign to Develop Local Opposition Leadership in Minsk

Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Opposition Leader Directs Protesters to Employ Force against Lukashenko

Belarus Warning Update: Upcoming CSTO Exercise Could Support Russian Military Deployment to Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Accuses Poland of Preparing Catholic Sectarian Subversion

Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Raises Odd Chemical Terrorism Threat

Belarus Warning Update: Putin Intensifies Russian-Belarusian Military Integration

Belarus Warning Update: Police Detain Demonstrators as Protests Escalate

Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Begins Campaign For “Information Sovereignty” to De-escalate Protests in Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: The Kremlin Will Likely Use October Military Exercises to Advance its Hybrid War in Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: Putin Seeks Belarus’ Integration with Russia via Belarusian Constitutional Amendments

Belarus Warning Update: Russia’s Western Military District Prepares for October Exercises in Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: All Russian Slavic Brotherhood Participants Return to Russia

Belarus Warning Update: The Kremlin May Have Used Kavkaz 2020 Exercises in Part to Prepare for a Conventional Russian Military Deployment to Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: Russia and Belarus Prepare for October Exercises in Belarus

Warning: Russia’s Kavkaz-2020 Military Exercise

Belarus Warning Update: Putin is Setting Conditions for a Long-term Continuous Russian Military Presence in Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: Putin Remains Dissatisfied with Lukashenko’s Concessions

Belarus Warning Update: Russia Deploys a Third Battalion Tactical Group to Belarus

Warning: The Kremlin Deploys a Brigade-Sized Force to Belarus Near Polish Border

Warning: NEXTA Actively Encourages Belarusian Security Service Defections

Belarus Warning Update: Multiple Russian Military Exercises Occurring in the Western Military District, Belarus, and Moldova

Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Vie for Control over Future Russian Weapons in Belarus

Belarus Warning Update: Putin Sends Airborne Troops to Belarus Exercise—and a Message to Lukashenko

Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin ahead of Meeting Putin

Warning: Lukashenko Expels Opposition Leaders to Support Kremlin Information Operation

Warning: Security Personnel in Green Uniforms without Insignia Appear in Minsk

Warning: Moscow Claims Poland Is the Lead Sponsor of Belarusian Protests; Minsk Calls Protests a “Color Revolution”

Warning: Belarusian Opposition Begins First Anti-Kremlin Shift after Lukashenko Promises Moscow Union State Concessions

Warning: The Kremlin Prepares to Further Integrate Belarus

Warning: Kremlin-linked Belarusian Opposition Leadership Threaten to Further Fragment Opposition Unity

Warning: Kremlin Information Operations Intensify Condition Setting for Intervention in Belarus

Warning: Militarization of Lukashenko’s Response to Belarusian Protests Increases but Without Violence; Moscow Continues to Set Conditions for Intervention

Warning: NEXTA Strategy to Create Grassroots Organization in Belarus Likely to Provoke Kremlin Response

Warning: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Consolidate Control of Belarusian Media Space

Warning: Opposition Continues to Unify as Lukashenko Continues Crackdown

Warning: Lukashenko Targets Opposition Leadership with Non-military Kremlin Support

Warning: Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Opposition Leaders

Warning: Anti-Lukashenko Protests Erupt across Belarus

Warning: Moscow Sets Conditions for Kinetic Intervention in Belarus Through New Information Operation

Warning: Lukashenko’s Kremlin-Backed Media Campaign

Warning: Kremlin Begins Security Forces Support for Lukashenko Following Regional Security Service Defection

Warning: Russian Hybrid Intervention into Belarus is Likely Imminent

Warning: Russia May Send "Little Green Men" To Belarus