George Barros

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2023

Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prior...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023

Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2023

Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023

Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2023

This report outlines the current Russian order of battle (ORBAT) in Ukraine, assesses the offensive and defensive capabilities of Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2023

Reporting from some Western sources that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin called for Russia to end its war against Ukraine is ina...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2023

The Kremlin passed legislation to use tools of digital authoritarianism to digitize and improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2023

ISW is publishing a special edition campaign assessment today, April 9. This report discusses Russia’s religious repressions throughout o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023

Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2023

The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s atte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023

Russian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2023

Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fig...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2023

US intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Mold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023

Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut bu...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions fo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023

Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2023

Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2023

A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023

This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023

Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023

A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2023

The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Uk...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2023

The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely respon...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2023

Ukrainian officials specified that a Russian Kh-22 missile struck a residential building in Dnipro City on January 14, killing at least 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on the evening of Janua...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2023

Russian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) and Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2023

Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29

Russian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28

The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24

Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23

Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aim...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17

The Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16

Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13

Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7

Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Pre...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4

Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28

Recent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31

Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on Octob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28

Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26

A Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longs...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25

Members of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24

The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next seve...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19

Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18

Russian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15

Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12

Russia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26

The Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s declarations about which categories of Russian males will be exempted from partial mobilization ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20

Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they will hold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13

The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the Februa...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9

Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of Septembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7

Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) descri...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3

Ukrainian officials directly stated that the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive is a methodical operation to intentionally degrade Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his false framing of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a defensive operation to prot...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that elements of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) reconnected to the Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 25 decree to increase the size of the Russian military starting in January 2023 is unlikely to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive opera...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23

Russian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in Crimea on August 16. Local report...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15

Elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia reportedly refused to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13

Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that support Russian forces on the right...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11

The US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, b...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8

Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest n...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7

Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6

Russian and Ukrainian forces traded accusations of dangerous shelling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28

The Russian grouping in Donetsk Oblast is likely seeking to capitalize on recent marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut by continuing to att...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27

Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24

Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23

Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22

The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keepin...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21

Russian forces conducted a few limited and highly localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational tempo is not marke...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20

The current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway but will likely culm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s July 18 meeting with the commander of the Eastern group of forces Lieutenant General Rustam Mura...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17

Russian forces are continuing a measured return from the operational pause and conducted limited ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian operational pause has concluded on July 16, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15

Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause as of July 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13

The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Uk...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12

Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9

Russian-backed occupation authorities in Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8

Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are not conducting an operational pause as of July 8 and are ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting ISW’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5

Russia’s stated objectives in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4

Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3

Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and tha...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed, con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22

Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, undermining a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21

The Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces and may be in the process of radically reshuffling the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18

Russian forces made marginal gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk on June 18, but have largely stalled along other axes of advance. Ru...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17

Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14

The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11

Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7

Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and localized but successful counterattacks against Russian positions throughout Ukraine on...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4

Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian fr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces will “accelerate” the “special military operation” in Ukraine in a mee...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30

Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will likely further degrade Russian capabilities and lead to further morale breakdowns.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29

New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28

Russian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26

Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defens...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25

Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and L...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21

Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17

The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11

Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City continued to successfully push Russian forces toward the Russia-Ukraine border on Ma...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8

Russian forces are likely amassing in Belgorod to reinforce Russian efforts in northern Kharkiv to prevent the ongoing Ukrainian countero...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. A significant Ukrainian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1

Russian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30

A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on parts of the city that have suffered the most from Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29

Russian forces made limited advances west of Severodonetsk on April 29 but remain stalled south of Izyum.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances on April 28.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27

Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22

A briefing by the Russian Deputy Commander of the Central Military District on April 22 reiterated standing Russian objectives in eastern...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21

The Kremlin declared victory in the battle of Mariupol. Russian forces will attempt to starve out remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Az...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing int...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17

Russian forces likely captured the Port of Mariupol on April 16 despite Ukrainian General Staff denials, reducing organized Ukrainian res...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14

The Russian missile cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, sunk on April 14 after a likely Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11

US intelligence reported over the weekend of April 9-10 that Russian Army General Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, commander of the Sou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9

The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5

Russian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4

Russian forces continue to make little to no progress in frontal assaults to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, their current main effo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnip...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2

Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely r...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1

Russia’s main effort is now focused on eastern Ukraine, with two subordinate main efforts: capturing the port city of Mariupol and captur...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31

Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take furthe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30

Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29

We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold thei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28

Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks around Kyiv will likely disrupt ongoing Russian efforts to reconstitute forces and resume major offensiv...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26

Russian forces continued their unsuccessful efforts to move into positions from which to attack or encircle Kyiv, claims by First Deputy ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25

The Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25 claiming Russia’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, entering the city center on March 24, but conducted few offensive o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and arou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war.  That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18

Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to se...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17

Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15

Local company- and battalion-level attacks by Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March 14-15 likely indicate the largest-scale offensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14

Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northea...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12

Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11

Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after faile...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7

Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6

The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4

Russian forces continue their focus on encircling Kyiv. The western envelopment remains bogged down but Russian troops have moved more ra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3