Layne Philipson

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2023

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2023

The Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine fo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on May 25 that the Wagner Group began handing over its positions in Bakhmut to the Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2023

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023

Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the l...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2023

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2023

Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023

Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023

Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2023

The Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2023

Russia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023

Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian politi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023

Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2023

Wagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s atte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2023

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 29 to review...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023

Russian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2023

US intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Mold...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023

Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fig...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023

Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2023

Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023

Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2023

Recent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources. Even at t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2023

Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023

The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30

Russian forces targeted Kyiv using Iranian-made drones on the night of December 29 to 30, a continuation of an increased pace of drone at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23

Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aim...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16

Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5

Russian forces conducted another wave of missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on December 5. Russian and Ukrainian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4

Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28

Recent claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21

Two days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to em...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9

Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of Septembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7

Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threate...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) descri...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his false framing of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a defensive operation to prot...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29

Ukrainian military officials announced the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast on August 29. Ukrainian officials re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 28

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on August 27 in a reported effort to assist stateless peoples and residents of Donbas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 25 decree to increase the size of the Russian military starting in January 2023 is unlikely to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21

Russian forces’ momentum from territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in late July is likely exhausted, and Russian attacks in east...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15

Elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia reportedly refused to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11

The US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8

Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest n...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5

Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russia is using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1

Russian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukrai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29

A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28. Ukraine and Russia ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28

The Russian grouping in Donetsk Oblast is likely seeking to capitalize on recent marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut by continuing to att...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26

Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ong...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24

Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22

The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keepin...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21

Russian forces conducted a few limited and highly localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational tempo is not marke...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s July 18 meeting with the commander of the Eastern group of forces Lieutenant General Rustam Mura...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17

Russian forces are continuing a measured return from the operational pause and conducted limited ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15

Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause as of July 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12

Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine.