Amin Soltani

Iran Update, November 28, 2023

Israel and Hamas both reported at least one violation of the temporary truce agreement in the Gaza Strip, but neither side escalated the ...

Iran Update, November 27, 2023

Iran Update, November 19, 2023

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran Update, November 18, 2023

Israeli forces are expanding offensive operations into Gaza City.

Iran Update, November 21, 2023

Israel said its forces encircled Jabalia as Palestinian militias conducted attacks on the Israeli lines of advance.

Iran Update, November 20, 2023

Iran Update, November 15, 2023

Iran Update, November 14, 2023

Iran Update, November 12, 2023

Iran Update, November 10, 2023

Iran Update, November 13, 2023

Israel is pressuring Hamas to surrender its position inside the al Shifa Hospital.

Iran Update, November 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9, 2023

Iran Update, November 8, 2023

Hamas forces north of Gaza City conducted hit-and-run attacks that harassed Israeli forces, which supports CTP-ISW's previous assessment ...

Iran Update, November 7, 2023

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran Update, November 4, 2023

Captured Hamas plans suggest that Hamas has not heavily committed to defending parts of the northern outskirts of Gaza City, which may in...

Iran Update, November 2, 2023

Iran Update, November 1, 2023

Lebanese Hezbollah-affiliated al Mayadeen reported that an Israeli armored unit advanced from the northwestern Gaza Strip south along the...

Iran Update, October 30, 2023

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US ...

Iran Update, October 29, 2023

Iran Update, October 28, 2023

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel.

Iran Update, October 25, 2023

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are pursuing a coordinated strategy to (1) deter Israel from trying to destroy Hamas in the G...

Iran Update, October 24, 2023

Iran Update, October 23, 2023

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel while IDF airstrikes targeted Palestinian mili...

Iran Update, October 22, 2023

Iran Update, October 21, 2023

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire at their usual rate into Israel.

Iran Update, October 19, 2023

CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran Update, October 18, 2023

Iran Update, October 13, 2023

Iran Update, October 12, 2023

Iran Update, October 11, 2023

Iran Update, October 4, 2023

IRGC personnel backfilled a formerly Wagner-held position in Sukhnah in central Syria on September 28, supporting Iranian efforts to esta...

Iran Update, September 27, 2023

Iran Update, September 19, 2023

Iran Update, September 15, 2023

Iran Update, September 14, 2023

The IRGC Quds Force and LH are trying to significantly increase their military infrastructure in Mayadin in eastern Syria.

Iran Update, September 13, 2023

Iran Update, September 12, 2023

1. Iran has successfully extracted some security concessions from Iraq, which will likely reduce the threat Iranian leaders perceive eman...

Iran Update, September 11, 2023

Iran Update, September 18, 2023

Iran Update, September 6, 2023

Russia directed local tribes to attack the US-led International Coalition and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria likely part...

Iran Update, September 1, 2023

Iran Update, August 31, 2023

Iran Update, August 30, 2023

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with several Syrian officials in Damascus on August 30 to discuss economic cooperat...

Iran Update, August 29, 2023

Iran Update, August 28, 2023

Iran Update, August 25, 2023

Iran Update, August 23, 2023

At least 16 anti-regime protests occurred in the southern Syrian provinces of Suwayda and Daraa on August 23.

Iran Update, August 22, 2023

Iran Update, August 21, 2023

Anti-regime protests in southern Syria have continued to expand, despite the beginning of the work week.

Iran Update, August 18, 2023

Iran Update, August 17, 2023

Syrians demonstrated against worsening economic conditions and the Syrian regime’s mismanagement of the economy across the country. Iran...

Iran Update, August 16, 2023

Iran Update, August 15, 2023

Iran and the Syrian regime shifted their state-run information operation from the false claim that US forces will imminently attack Syria...

Iran Update, August 14, 2023

Iran Update, August 4, 2023

Iran Update, August 3, 2023

Iran Update, August 2, 2023

Iran Update, August 1, 2023

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet announced it thwarted the smuggling of “anomalous” weapons from northern Jordan into Israel duri...

Iran Update, July 28, 2023

Iran Update, July 26, 2023

Iran Update, July 25, 2023

Iranian media and officials highlighted the addition of the Abu Mahdi land attack cruise missile to Iran’s naval arsenal to signal Iran’s...

Iran Update, July 24, 2023

The buildup of Iranian-backed forces in eastern Syria is possibly causing local anti-Iran and anti-Shia discontent.

Iran Update, July 21, 2023

Iran Update, July 20, 2023

Iran Update, July 19, 2023

Iran and Russia are amplifying rumors of International Coalition attacks into Syrian regime territory likely as part of a campaign to exp...

Iran Update, July 18, 2023

Russia accused the United States of preparing false flag chemical weapons attacks Syria, possibly supporting the joint Russian-Syrian-Ira...

Iran Update, July 17, 2023

Iran Update, July 14, 2023

1. Iranian-backed militias raised salaries for standard militia members in Mayadin and Albu Kamal Cities, Deir ez Zor Province by 13 perc...

Iran Update, July 13, 2023

Iran Update, July 12, 2023

Iran Update, July 10, 2023

Iranian-backed militias and Syrian regime forces deployed to Deir ez Zor in response to rumors of an imminent International Coalition att...

Iran Update, July 7, 2023

Iran instructed the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force (IRGC QF) to achieve total hegemony in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria in M...

Iran Update, July 5, 2023

Iran Update, June 29, 2023

Iran Update, June 27, 2023

Iranian-backed militants are building new military sites south of Damascus City likely as part of the Iranian effort to secure transporta...

Iran Update, June 26, 2023

1. Iran is framing the US-led international coalition in Syria as an imminent security threat to local Syrians, possibly to incite and su...

Iran Update, June 23, 2023

Iran Update, June 22, 2023

Iran Update, June 21, 2023

1. The Syrian regime is leveraging regional normalization with Arab states to fund the reconstruction of Syria’s railways, which could bl...

Iran Update, June 20, 2023

An IRGC-affiliated news outlet tracked a US-Iraqi logistics convoy, possibly to signal Iranian intent to direct an attack on US interests...

Iran Update, June 15, 2023

Iran Update, June 14, 2023

CTP has observed several developments that indicate the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is expanding its military capabilities an...

Iran Update, June 12, 2023

Key Takeaways: 1. Iranian officials are promoting reports of resumed nuclear negotiations with the United States likely to generate short...

Iran Update, June 9, 2023

Iran Update, June 5, 2023

Iran Update, June 1, 2023

Iran Update, May 31, 2023

Iran has bolstered its defensive position in eastern Syria since the end of the escalation cycle that occurred in March, likely to facili...

Iran Update, May 30, 2023

Iran Update, May 26, 2023

Iran Update, May 24, 2023

Iran Update, May 19, 2023

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are consolidating their security footprint in northern Ninewa Province, which will likely inc...

Iran Update, May 17, 2023

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened to attack US forces in Iraq, likely elevating the risk of an attack on US or Coalition forces. T...

Iran Update, May 15, 2023

Iranian leaders are stoking conflict between Israel and Palestinian militias, likely to enable the IRGC to transfer military equipment in...

Iran Update, May 8, 2023

Iran is maneuvering to economically benefit from Syria’s reintegration into the region, which may enable Iran to circumvent US and intern...

Iran Update, May 5, 2023

Attacks on Iranian clerics increased during the past month, which may reflect broader public antipathy to the regime's sociocultural and ...

Iran Update, May 4, 2023

The Iranian regime is seeking to take advantage of political and economic developments in Syria and Iraq to improve the Iranian economy a...

Iran Update, May 3, 2023

Iran Update, May 2, 2023

Iran Update, May 1, 2023

Iranian leadership dismissed several economic officials and emphasized fighting corruption between April 27 and May 1 to improve Iran’s e...

Iran Update, April 28, 2023

Iran Update, April 27, 2023

The domestic Iranian information space is currently shaped such that violence against religious figures is being viewed as part of escala...

Iran Update, April 26, 2023

An unidentified man shot and killed Shia cleric and Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Abbas Ali Soleimani in a bank in Babolsar, Mazan...

Iran Update, April 25, 2023

Qom Provincial Governor Mohammad Taghi Shah Cheraghi stated that the provincial government should take “negative measures” against unveil...

Iran Update, April 24, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei briefly lost control of his audience during a speech to Basij students on April 18, indicating the degree to ...

Iran Update, April 21, 2023

Former President Hassan Rouhani has made national referenda the focus of the Iranian political discourse, forcing the regime into a compl...

Iran Update, April 20, 2023

The IRGC is conducting a media campaign against former President Hassan Rouhani likely to alienate him further from the political establi...

Iran Update, April 19, 2023

Iran Update, April 18, 2023

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with several key regime powerbrokers on April 18, possibly to promote a pragmatic hardlin...

Iran Update, April 17, 2023

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani has allowed Iran—via its proxies—to expand its military influence in Iraq, specifically Kirk...

Iran Update, April 14, 2023

Iran Update, April 13, 2023

Iran Update, April 12, 2023

Iran Update, April 11, 2023

Iran Update, April 10, 2023

Palestinian militants expanded rocket attacks into Israel from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip to the Golan Heights. Palestinian mili...

Iran Update, April 7, 2023

Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) have indicated that they seek to contain and deescalate their recent flareup with Israel—at least for t...

Iran Update, April 6, 2023

Hamas conducted a large-scale rocket attack from southern Lebanon into Israel on April 6 possibly as part of the larger pattern of escala...

Iran Update, April 5, 2023

Iran Update, April 4, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reaffirmed his commitment to enforcing the mandatory hijab law during a meeting with senior regime officials ...

Iran Update, April 3, 2023

The Israel Defense Force conducted an airstrike targeting at least two Iranian-backed militia bases in western Syria on April 1, 2023. Un...

Iran Update, March 31, 2023

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes in Damascus, Syria on March 30 that resulted in the death of senior IRGC official Milad ...

Iran Update, March 30, 2023

Iran and its proxies may target US forces in Syria in retaliation for multiple Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and Iranian-backed forces in...

Iran Update, March 29, 2023

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian alluded to Iranian involvement in the recent attacks on US bases in Syria durin...

Iran Update, March 28, 2023

Iran Update, March 27, 2023

Iran Update, March 23, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has trapped the Iranian regime by focusing public and government attention on improving the economy—an issue ...

Iran Update, March 22, 2023

Iran Update, March 21, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shut down intra-regime debates about political reform to address protester grievances and instead confined th...

Iran Update, March 20, 2023

Iranian security leaders have announced in recent days that they will resume enforcing the mandatory hijab law with a confrontational app...

Iran Update, March 17, 2023

Some Iranian leaders continue to refuse to make the necessary changes that will meaningfully address popular frustrations.

Iran Update, March 16, 2023

Iran Update, March 15, 2023

Hardline officials are promoting conservative reforms, which will likely generate additional calls for political change in Iran. Hardline...

Iran Update, March 14, 2023

Iran Update, March 13, 2023

Iran Update, March 10, 2023

The Iranian regime is continuing efforts to dissuade Iranian citizens from celebrating Chahar Shanbeh Souri to forestall potential protes...

Iran Update, March 9, 2023

The Iranian regime likely assesses that it is losing its cultural campaign for Iranian women. Iranian women are reportedly defying the ma...

Iran Update, March 8, 2023

Iran Update, March 7, 2023

Iran Update, March 6, 2023

Over 110 separate student poisonings occurred throughout Iran on March 6.[i] Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They ar...

Iran Update, March 5, 2023

The Iranian regime has permitted the country-wide, coordinated attacks on Iranian schoolgirls to escalate.

Iran Update, March 3, 2023

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid suggested that the Iranian regime may be responsible for or complicit in the recent chemical a...

Iran Update, March 2, 2023

Iran Update, March 1, 2023

CTP assesses with moderate confidence that the Iranian regime is tolerating a country-wide, coordinated campaign to poison Iranian school...

Iran Update, February 28, 2023

Iran Update, February 15, 2023

Protest coordinators have likely strengthened their organizational capabilities and internal infrastructure ahead of calls for anti-regim...

Iran Update, February 10, 2023

Iran Update, February 6, 2023

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken several public-facing measures in recent days likely to alleviate public frustrations toward the re...

Iran Crisis Update, February 3, 2023

The Iranian regime is in a steady pattern of escalation with prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, which risks stoking sectarian te...

Iran Crisis Update, February 1, 2023

Iranian officials across the political spectrum are cohering around different lessons the regime should draw from the protest movement an...

Iran Crisis Update, January 30, 2023

Israeli combat aircraft conducted three airstrikes against likely Iran-backed militants in eastern Syria on January 29 and January 30. Is...

Iran Crisis Update, January 27, 2023

An armed individual shot and killed the security chief of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran and injured two guards on January 27. The gun...

Iran Crisis Update, January 25, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 23, 2023

Protest activity in Iran increased on January 23, particularly among current petrochemical employees and retired education and telecommun...

Iran Crisis Update, December 9

Iran Crisis Update, December 7

Anti-regime strikes and demonstrations sustained momentum on December 7 as nation-wide calls to protest entered their third and final day...

Iran Crisis Update, December 5

Protest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly on December 5—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizat...

Iran Crisis Update, December 2

The Mashhad Neighborhood Youth issued further instructions for the planned protests on December 5-7. The Mashhad group called for street ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 28

Social media users circulated calls for protests following the US-Iran world cup match on November 29 although it is unclear to what exte...

Iran Crisis Update, November 21

The Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 18

The ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the Iranian security establishment.

Iran Crisis Update, November 16

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to discourage prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid from publicly criticizing the regime have ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 14

Protest activity and strikes will likely increase from November 15 to 17. Protest coordinators and organizers have reiterated their calls...

Iran Crisis Update, November 7

Some elements of the Iranian regime have suggested political reform to assuage protesters’ frustrations, although such reform is highly u...

Iran Crisis Update, November 4

Parents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 24

Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian c...