Zachary Coles

Iran Update, May 4, 2023

The Iranian regime is seeking to take advantage of political and economic developments in Syria and Iraq to improve the Iranian economy a...

Iran Update, May 2, 2023

Iran Update, April 27, 2023

The domestic Iranian information space is currently shaped such that violence against religious figures is being viewed as part of escala...

Iran Update, April 25, 2023

Qom Provincial Governor Mohammad Taghi Shah Cheraghi stated that the provincial government should take “negative measures” against unveil...

Iran Update, April 18, 2023

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with several key regime powerbrokers on April 18, possibly to promote a pragmatic hardlin...

Iran Update, April 13, 2023

Iran Update, April 12, 2023

Iran Update, April 11, 2023

Iran Update, April 10, 2023

Palestinian militants expanded rocket attacks into Israel from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip to the Golan Heights. Palestinian mili...

Iran Update, April 7, 2023

Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) have indicated that they seek to contain and deescalate their recent flareup with Israel—at least for t...

Iran Update, April 6, 2023

Hamas conducted a large-scale rocket attack from southern Lebanon into Israel on April 6 possibly as part of the larger pattern of escala...

Iran Update, April 5, 2023

Iran Update, March 31, 2023

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes in Damascus, Syria on March 30 that resulted in the death of senior IRGC official Milad ...

Iran Update, March 29, 2023

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian alluded to Iranian involvement in the recent attacks on US bases in Syria durin...

Iran Update, March 28, 2023

Iran Update, March 27, 2023

Iran Update, March 15, 2023

Hardline officials are promoting conservative reforms, which will likely generate additional calls for political change in Iran. Hardline...

Iran Update, March 13, 2023

Iran Update, March 9, 2023

The Iranian regime likely assesses that it is losing its cultural campaign for Iranian women. Iranian women are reportedly defying the ma...

Iran Update, March 8, 2023

Iran Update, March 3, 2023

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid suggested that the Iranian regime may be responsible for or complicit in the recent chemical a...

Iran Update, March 1, 2023

CTP assesses with moderate confidence that the Iranian regime is tolerating a country-wide, coordinated campaign to poison Iranian school...

Iran Update, February 27, 2023

Iran Update, February 22, 2023

Growing elements of the regime are publicly recognizing that the Islamic Republic has lost the confidence of its people as Iran faces a p...

Iran Update, February 21, 2023

The Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what pattern of anti-regime activity will charact...

Iran Update, February 16, 2023

Iran and its proxies may be preparing for a major effort with military elements in northern Syria. Senior officers from the IRGC Quds For...

Iran Update February 14, 2023

Iran Update, February 13, 2023

The IRGC Quds Force is likely coordinating a large-scale effort to consolidate its control and influence over critical transportation rou...

Iran Update, February 10, 2023

Iran Update, February 8, 2023

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Aleppo City, Syria on February ...

Iran Crisis Update, February 3, 2023

The Iranian regime is in a steady pattern of escalation with prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, which risks stoking sectarian te...

Iran Crisis Update, February 1, 2023

Iranian officials across the political spectrum are cohering around different lessons the regime should draw from the protest movement an...

Iran Crisis Update, January 30, 2023

Israeli combat aircraft conducted three airstrikes against likely Iran-backed militants in eastern Syria on January 29 and January 30. Is...

Iran Crisis Update, January 29, 2023

Israel conducted a kamikaze drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28, according to ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 20, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 17, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 16, 2023

Ongoing gas shortages have sparked protests in northeastern Iran.

Iran Crisis Update, January 15, 2023

Iranian protest organizers circulated calls for the international community, and especially European parties, to designate the Islamic Re...

Iran Crisis Update, January 14, 2023

The Iranian judiciary announced on January 14 the execution of Alireza Akbari—a former deputy defense minister and British-Iranian dual n...

Iran Crisis Update, January 13, 2023

Some protest organizers in Iran are trying to push the protest movement into a new phase—one that could include more militant activity ag...

Iran Crisis Update, January 12, 2023

Iran Crisis Update, January 11, 2023

CTP recorded no protests in Iran on January 11, 2023 for the first time since September 16, 2022.

Iran Crisis Update, January 10, 2023

The Iranian regime is refocusing on enforcing widespread adherence to the mandatory hijab law after briefly and informally relaxing such ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 9, 2023

Protest coordinators and organizations may have successfully deterred the judiciary from executing two arrested protesters in Iran on Jan...

Iran Crisis Update, January 6, 2023

The Iranian regime failed to suppress demonstrations in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on January 6. Protesters participated in...

Iran Crisis Update, January 5, 2023

Regime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime ...

Iran Crisis Update, January 4, 2023

Protester umbrella organizations appear to disagree on the timing of the upcoming planned protests.

Iran Crisis Update, January 3, 2023

The organizational structure of the protest movement is continuing to evolve and morph as its leaders try to cohere the movement.

Iran Crisis Update, December 30

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid is likely trying to balance his political positions to maximize his domestic support and achie...

Iran Crisis Update, December 29

Funerals and commemoration ceremonies for killed protesters are continuing to sustain anti-regime activity throughout Iran as demonstrati...

Iran Crisis Update, December 28

Iranian security officials and entities attempted to declare an end to protest activity on December 28 despite ongoing acts of anti-regim...

Iran Crisis Update, December 24

The Iranian Supreme Court upheld the death sentence of 22-year-old protester Mohammad Ghobadlou on December 24 after rejecting his appeal.

Data Analysis of the Mahsa Amini Protest Movement

The ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran reached their three-month anniversary on December 16. We present here a series of visualizations...

Iran Crisis Update, December 19

Some protest coordinators and organizations are trying to reclaim religion from the regime, essentially arguing that one can be devoutly ...

Iran Crisis Update, December 18

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and significant parts of his inner circle are continuing to misdiagnose the core problems driving the ongoing...

Iran Crisis Update, December 17

Iranian security personnel clashed with prisoners in Karaj, Alborz Province on December 17, reportedly killing one and injuring up to 100...

Iran Crisis Update, December 16

Protest organizations and coordinators are increasingly promoting consistent and sustainable acts of anti-regime defiance as the Mahsa Am...

Iran Crisis Update, December 15

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is likely conducting an information operation to discredit the neighborhood youth protest organiza...

Iran Crisis Update, December 4

Western media inaccurately reported that the Iranian regime abolished its morality patrol on December 4.

Iran Crisis Update, December 3

Iran Crisis Update, November 30

Protest activity may increase on December 5-7. The recent calls for protests may highlight the increasing organization and sophistication...

Iran Crisis Update, November 29

Some Iranian protesters celebrated the US victory over Iran in the World Cup on November 29.

Iran Crisis Update, November 28

Social media users circulated calls for protests following the US-Iran world cup match on November 29 although it is unclear to what exte...

Iran Crisis Update, November 27

Iranian protest organization groups may be reinforcing their organizational capabilities as protest activity entered a relative lull over...

Iran Crisis Update, November 21

The Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 20

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei likely issued an unpublished directive to violently suppress anti-regime protests within the past f...

Iran Crisis Update, November 19

Iran Crisis Update, November 18

The ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the Iranian security establishment.

Iran Crisis Update, November 16

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to discourage prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid from publicly criticizing the regime have ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 13

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely escalating against prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, who has become increasingl...

Iran Crisis Update, November 12

Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide demonstrations from November 15 to 17 to commemorate the three-year an...

Iran Crisis Update, November 9

Iran and its proxies may attack US positions in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian convoy in eastern...

Iran Crisis Update, November 8

Protests may increase in the coming days to commemorate the regime’s brutal crackdown in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on Sept...

Iran Crisis Update, November 6

The regime continued linking the ongoing protests with terrorism on November 6 as part of an information operation to delegitimize protes...

Iran Crisis Update, November 5

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid may begin regularly instigating protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province rather tha...

Iran Crisis Update, November 4

Parents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring ...

Iran Crisis Update, November 3

Protesters coordinated extensively to respond to the regime crackdown in Karaj, possibly reflecting growing organization within the movem...

Iran Crisis Update, November 2

Iran is signaling its readiness to attack Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil ostensibly in retaliation for the Shiraz terror attack but prim...

Iran Crisis Update, November 1

American and Saudi officials have warned of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil, according to the Wall Street J...

Iran Crisis Update, October 29

IRGC Commander Hossein Salami set conditions to violently escalate the suppression of ongoing, anti-regime demonstrations on October 29.

Iran Crisis Update, October 28

Iranian security personnel fired live ammunition and tear gas at anti-regime demonstrators in Zahedan, Sistan Baluchistan Province on Oct...

Iran Crisis Update, October 26

The ongoing, anti-regime protests in Iran expanded significantly on October 26, occurring in at least 33 cities in 23 provinces. These pr...

Iran Crisis Update, October 25

Iran Crisis Update, October 24

Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian c...

Iran Crisis Update, October 22

Iran Crisis Update, October 20

Anti-regime protests continued to subside in extent and scale on October 20 but may increase on October 22 and 26.

Iran Crisis Update, October 18

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among the political elite.

Iran Crisis Update, October 17

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began a three-day military exercise along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on October 17 likely t...

Iran Crisis Update, October 16

Iran Crisis Update, October 14

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) may be mobilizing retired servicemembers and other affiliated officers to suppress protests...

Iran Crisis Update, October 12

Iranian officials continue to ignore protester grievances and are instead emphasizing their readiness to brutally crack down.

Iran Crisis Update, October 11

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 9

Iran may be preparing to escalate militarily against its foreign adversaries, including the US, in response to the ongoing, anti-regime p...

Iran Crisis Update, October 8

The Iranian regime’s rhetorical responses to ongoing anti-regime protests may suggest that senior regime officials are posing for the ben...

Iran Crisis Update, October 7

Regime disinformation about protester deaths may further stoke anti-regime sentiment and even revitalize anti-regime demonstrations.

Iran Crisis Update, October 6

Iran may attack the US, Israeli, and/or Saudi targets in retaliation for the role Iranian officials claim those countries have played in ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 5

Anti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shia Imam and is a nati...

Iran Crisis Update, October 4

University and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in Iran—at least for the moment. Anti-regime ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 3

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.

Iran Crisis Update, October 2

The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to ...

Iran Crisis Update, October 1

Iranian protesters successfully planned anti-regime demonstrations in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 despite reg...

Iran Crisis Update, September 30

Iran Crisis Update, September 29

The Iranian regime’s extensive internet and telecommunications censorship is severely limiting the open-source information available on o...

Iran Crisis Update, September 28

Circumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties.

Iranian Proxies May Attack US in Response to Iraqi Political Crisis

Iran may direct its proxies to attack American and partner targets in the Middle East in the coming weeks.

Iran File: Iran and Turkey face off in Iraq

Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain growing Turkish economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leade...