Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2025

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 11:15am ET on July 13. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 14 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

A German official confirmed that Germany is interested in purchasing Patriot air defense systems from the United States on behalf of Ukraine. The head of the German Ministry of Defense's Planning and Command Staff, Major General Christian Freuding, announced on July 12 that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth spoke several weeks ago about Germany's desire to purchase two Patriot air defense systems.[i] Freuding stated that US President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also spoke about the potential purchase in recent days and that Pistorius will travel to Washington, D.C. on July 14 for additional discussions. Freuding stated that Germany has opened a Patriot interceptor production line and that Germany will produce the first European-made Patriot interceptors in late 2026 or early 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 10 announced Germany's willingness to purchase two Patriot air defense systems on Ukraine's behalf.[ii]

Recent satellite imagery suggests that Russia is constructing protective structures at some of its air bases following Ukraine's Operation Spider Web on June 1. Ukraine-based open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight reported that satellite imagery collected on July 7 shows that Russian forces have constructed roughly 10 reinforced bunkers with soil coverings, 12 concrete bunker-type structures without soil coverings, and eight hangar-style buildings on the aprons at Khalino Air Base in Kursk Oblast.[iii] Planet Labs satellite imagery collected on June 27 of Khalino Air Base also shows reinforced hangars, supporting Frontelligence's assessment. Frontelligence reported that satellite imagery collected on July 9 shows that Russian forces have constructed two concrete bunker-style structures at Saky Air Base in occupied Crimea, and Planet Labs satellite imagery collected on July 7 also shows concrete aircraft shelters.[iv] Frontelligence reported that satellite imagery collected on July 9 shows no construction efforts at Dzhankoi Air Base in occupied Crimea, however. Frontelligence reported that recent satellite imagery shows bomber wreckage still present at Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast and Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast – two of the air bases that Ukrainian forces struck during Operation Spider Web. Russian officials and milbloggers have blamed Russian leadership for failing to defend Russian military infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes throughout Russia's full-scale invasion.[v] Russia may be starting to construct protective structures at its air bases after three years of war in response to Operation Spider Web.

Key Takeaways:

• A German official confirmed that Germany is interested in purchasing Patriot air defense systems from the United States on behalf of Ukraine.
• Recent satellite imagery suggests that Russia is constructing protective structures at some of its air bases following Ukraine's Operation Spider Web on June 1.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast on July 12 and 13 but did not advance.[vi]

A Russian milblogger claimed that fighting near Tetkino (southwest of Glushkovo) is less intense.[vii]

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City)

Fighting continued in northern Sumy Oblast on July 13.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in Yunakivka, on the northern outskirts of Myropillya (both northeast of Sumy City), northeast of Oleksiivka (north of Sumy City), and north of Ryzhivka (northwest of Sumy City and immediately south of Tetkino, Kursk Oblast).[viii] A Russian source claimed that elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) advanced in Kindrativka (north of Sumy City), but another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces withdrew from the settlement.[ix]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are attacking in northern Myropillya and that fighting is ongoing in Yunakivka and Kindrativka.[x] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Kindrativka and Andriivka (north of Sumy City).[xi]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly operating in the Sumy direction.[xii] Drone operators of the Smuglyanka Detachment are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Andriivka, and drone operators of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating fiber optic drones near Oleksiivka.[xiii]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on July 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations north of Kharkiv City toward Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Zelene on July 12 and 13.[xiv] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked west of Vovchansk.[xv]

Russian forces continued assaults in the Velykyi Burluk direction on July 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on July 13 that Russian forces seized Dehtyarne (north of Velykyi Burluk along the international border).[xvi]

Russian forces continued assaults northeast of Velykyi Burluk toward Chuhunivka and Ambarne on July 12 and 13.[xvii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Milove (northeast of Velykyi Burluk).[xviii]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on July 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on July 13 that Russian forces advanced near Radkivka (north of Kupyansk).[xix] A Russian source denied reports that Russian forces seized Sobolivka (just west of Kupyansk) and Mosovka (just northwest of Kupyansk).[xx]

Russian forces attacked north of Kupyansk near Kindrashivka and Holubivka; northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; and southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka and toward Pishchane and Novoosynove on July 12 and 13.[xxi]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on July 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Zahryzove and Kolisnykivka, east of Borova near Zelenyi Hai and Kopanky, and southeast of Borova near Hrekivka and toward Cherneshchyna on July 12 and 13.[xxii]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Cherneshchyna.[xxiii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on July 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on July 13 that Ukrainian forces retook most of Ridkodub (north of Lyman).[xxiv] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in Torske (east of Lyman).[xxv]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Lyman toward Shandryholove and Serednie; north of Lyman near Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Novyi Myr, and Ridkodub; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi and Yampolivka, and east of Lyman near Torske and Dibrova and the Serebryanske forest area on July 12 and 13.[xxvi] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Yampolivka.[xxvii]

Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov reported on July 13 that Russian forces in the Lyman direction are trying to prevent Ukrainian forces from redeploying to more critical areas of the frontline, including to the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions.[xxviii]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly operating in the Lyman direction.[xxix]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on July 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations northwest of Siversk toward Dronivka; north of Siversk near Serebryanka; northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka; east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske; and southeast of Siversk near Ivano-Darivka and Vyimka on July 12 and 13.[xxx]

A Russian milblogger claimed that reports that Russian forces are attacking the suburbs of Siversk are not true, and another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked the outskirts of the settlement and had to pull back.[xxxi] The commander of a Ukrainian drone platoon operating in the Siversk direction reported that Russian forces are using small infantry groups consisting of two to six personnel to probe Ukrainian defense and have not used heavy equipment in the area for more than half a year.[xxxii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on July 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in southern Chasiv Yar and near Hryhorivka (north of Chasiv Yar).[xxxiii]

Russian forces conducted offensive operations southeast of Chasiv Yar near Klishchiivka and south of Chasiv Yar near Bila Hora and Stupochky on July 12 and 13.[xxxiv]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces do not occupy Stupochky and Predtechyne (southwest of Stupochky) and that the settlements are contested "gray zones."[xxxv]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction on July 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced northwest of Dyliivka (north of Toretsk), north of Yablunivka, near Popiv Yar and Rusyn Yar (all northwest of Toretsk), and between Oleksandro-Kalynove (northwest of Toretsk) and Katerynivka (east of Oleksandro-Kalynove).[xxxvi]

Russian forces attacked near Toretsk itself; north of Toretsk near Dyliivka; and northwest of Toretsk near Rusyn Yar, Popiv Yar, Yablunivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, and Poltavka, and toward Stepanivka on July 12 and 13.[xxxvii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Oleksandro-Kalynove.[xxxviii]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th Army Corps [AC], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Popiv Yar.[xxxix] Elements of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in the Kostyantynivka (Toretsk) direction.[xl] Drone operators of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Dolha Balka (northwest of Toretsk) and Yablunivka.[xli] Elements of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Sofiivka (northwest of Toretsk).[xlii]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on July 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Novotoretske (northeast of Pokrovsk).[xliii]

Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Mykolaivka (east of Pokrovsk).[xliv] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in Novotoretske, into Fedorivka (both northeast of Pokrovsk), and near Zvirove (southwest of Pokrovsk).[xlv]

Russian forces attacked toward Pokrovsk itself; north of Pokrovsk toward Rodynske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Razine, Novotoretske, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Fedorivka, and Myrolyubivka and toward Volodymyrivka; east of Pokrovsk near Mykolaivka and Promin; south of Pokrovsk near Vidrodzhennya, Shevchenko and Novoukrainka; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Udachne, and Kotlyne and toward Molodetske on July 12 and 13.[xlvi] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Novoekonomichne and Mykolaivka.[xlvii]

Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov stated on July 13 that Russian forces in the Pokrovsk direction are trying to advance north along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway to Kostyantynivka (northeast of Pokrovsk).[xlviii] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian forces "several" times over but that Russian infantry are poorly trained.[xlix] The spokesperson reported that Russian forces are sending poorly-equipped infantry to conduct highly attritional, infantry-led assaults in order to divert Ukrainian attention and then send better trained and better-equipped groups to attack.

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], SMD) are reportedly operating near Novoukrainka.[l] Drone operators of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Razine and Stepanivka.[li] Elements of the Typhoon Detachment of the 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment (27th Motorized Rifle Division, 2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating in the Pokrovsk direction.[lii]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on July 13 shows Russian forces raising a flag in Myrne (southwest of Novopavlivka), indicating that Russian forces recently seized the settlement.[liii] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 13 that Russian forces seized Myrne, while a Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on July 13 that Russian forces seized Myrne prior to July 13.[liv]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Hrushkivske (southwest of Novopavlivka) and advanced north of Novoserhiivka (northeast of Novopavlivka), east of Kotlyarivka (east of Novopavlivka), southwest of Horikhove, northwest of Oleksiivka (both southeast of Novopavlivka), to eastern Maliivka, west of Myrne, northwest and northeast of Tovste, and northeast of Novokhatske (all southwest of Novopavlivka).[lv]

Russian forces attacked toward Novopavlivka itself; northeast of Novopavlivka near Novoserhiivka and Muravka; east of Novopavlivka near Kotlyarivka; southeast of Novopavlivka near Horikhove and Oleksiivka; south of Novopavlivka near Zaporizhzhia, Myrne, and Dachne and toward Filiya; and southwest of Novopavlivka near Novokhatske and toward Zelenyi Hai and Voskresenka on July 12 and 13.[lvi] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Novoserhiivka.[lvii]

Trehubov stated on July 13 that Russian forces continue attempts to cross the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk oblast border and establish positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[lviii]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Dachne.[lix] Elements of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th CAA, EMD) are reportedly operating near Novokhatske, Tovste, and Zelenyi Hai.[lx]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on July 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Novopil (southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and to eastern Maliivka (northwest of Velyka Novosilka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).[lxi]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Vilne Pole and Shevchenko and toward Komyshuvakha and west of Velyka Novosilka near Zelene Pole and toward Temyrivka and Novoheorhiivka on July 12 and 13.[lxii]

Order of Battle: Elements of the 5th Tank Brigade (36th CAA, EMD) are reportedly operating near Maliivka.[lxiii]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction on July 13.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Hulyaipole near Olhivske and toward Poltavka and east of Hulyaipole near Malynivka on July 13.[lxiv]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Malynivka.[lxv]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations south of Orikhiv toward Novodanylivka; southwest of Orikhiv near Mali Shcherbaky and Kamyanske; and west of Orikhiv near Plavni on July 12 and 13.[lxvi]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[lxvii] Drone operators of the "Shaman" detachment of the 1455th Motorized Rifle Regiment (reportedly of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Orikhiv.[lxviii]

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kherson direction on July 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked in the Kherson direction, including northeast of Kherson City near the Antonivsky Bridge and southwest of Kherson City near Bilohrudyi Island, on July 12 and 13.[lxix]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 104th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating in the Kherson direction.[lxx] Elements of the Hispaniola Volunteer Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) reportedly continue to operate near the coast of occupied Crimea.[lxxi]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the afternoon of July 12 and the night of July 12 to 13. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 60 strike and decoy drones, up to 40 of which were Shahed-type drones, from the directions of Kursk City and Millerovo, Rostov Oblast.[lxxii] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 20 Shahed-type drones and that 20 decoy drones were "lost" or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian afternoon strikes targeted rear Ukrainian regions and that the overnight strikes targeted Donetsk, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 20 Russian drones hit five locations in Ukraine.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.