Kateryna Stepanenko

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023

Russian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2023

The conflict between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely reached its climax against...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023

Ukrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2023

 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023

UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on Februar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023

Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2023

Russia has partially regained the ability to conduct successful information campaigns in support of strategic objectives and even discret...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023

Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2023

his report focuses on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cautious approach to risk-taking after having thrown the dice on launching a ful...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023

Russian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023

Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023

This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023

Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2023

The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely respon...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2023

Ukrainian officials specified that a Russian Kh-22 missile struck a residential building in Dnipro City on January 14, killing at least 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2023

Russian forces launched two waves of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure on January

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on the evening of Janua...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023

The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28

The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24

Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23

Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aim...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18

This report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16

Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11

Russian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s i...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets with...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6

The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concer...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5

Russian forces conducted another wave of missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on December 5. Russian and Ukrainian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23

The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20

This report discusses the rising influence of the milblogger (military correspondent or voenkor) community in Russia despite its increasi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to em...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12

Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the eas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry on Novembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 6

Key Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the co...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4

The Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart the Donetsk offensive but will likely still fail to achieve o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3

Russian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1

Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28

Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25

Members of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24

The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next seve...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9

The attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, coupled with recent Russian military failures and partial mobilization, is generating direct criti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8

A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sourc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2

This campaign assessment special edition focuses on dramatic changes in the Russian information space following the Russian defeat around...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30

Assessing Putin’s Implicit Nuclear Threats After Annexation

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not threaten an immediate nuclear attack to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensives into Russian-occupi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27

Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26

The Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its fal...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18

Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and forma...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17

Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending agai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13

The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the Februa...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11

Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9

Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of Septembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his false framing of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a defensive operation to prot...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30

Ukrainian forces began striking Russian pontoon ferries across the Dnipro River on August 29, which is consistent with the start of the U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29

Ukrainian military officials announced the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast on August 29. Ukrainian officials re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 28

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on August 27 in a reported effort to assist stateless peoples and residents of Donbas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive opera...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23

Russian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21

Russian forces’ momentum from territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in late July is likely exhausted, and Russian attacks in east...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20

Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol on August ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in Crimea on August 16. Local report...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15

Elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia reportedly refused to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14

Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharki...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11

The US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, b...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7

Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6

Russian and Ukrainian forces traded accusations of dangerous shelling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5

Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russia is using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3

Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1

Russian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukrai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30

Russian forces are likely prioritizing offensive operations toward Bakhmut and around Donetsk City at the expense of efforts to take Sive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29

A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28. Ukraine and Russia ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27

Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26

Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ong...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15

Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause as of July 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13

The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Uk...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12

Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10

Russian forces are conducting a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine and engaging in operations to set conditions for future offensi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9

Russian-backed occupation authorities in Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8

Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are not conducting an operational pause as of July 8 and are ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7

Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced on July 7 that Russian forces in Ukraine are pausing to rest and regain ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting ISW’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3

Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30

Russian forces retreated from the Snake Island on June 30 following a Ukrainian missile and artillery campaign.  The Russian Defense Mini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike against the Schevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv on June 26, likely to coincide with the o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23

Ongoing Belarusian mobilization exercises will continue in Gomel Oblast until July 1 but are unlikely to be in preparation for direct Bel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21

The Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces and may be in the process of radically reshuffling the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20

Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19

The UK Ministry of Defense assesses that the Kremlin’s continued framing of its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17

Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15

Western officials announced additional military aid for Ukraine on June 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11

Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10

Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9

Russian officials are increasingly taking over governmental positions in occupied Ukrainian territory, advancing the Kremlin's likely eff...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7

Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4

Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian fr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces will “accelerate” the “special military operation” in Ukraine in a mee...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31

Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kh...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28

Russian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25

Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and L...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are inste...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19

Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18

Russian forces are continuing to inflict air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian de...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17

The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16

Russian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the front line in Ukraine on May 16.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14

The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Sive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13

The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensiv...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12

Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9

Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7

The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv is making significant progress and will likely advance to the Russian border in the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4

Ukrainian defenses have largely stalled Russian advances in Eastern Ukraine. Russian troops conducted a number of unsuccessful attacks in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. A significant Ukrainian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances on April 28.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27

Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress south from Izyum and northwest of Rubizhne, but Russian offensive operations els...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23

Russian forces continued offensive operations along multiple axes even as they completed moving reinforcements drawn from the retreat fro...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22

A briefing by the Russian Deputy Commander of the Central Military District on April 22 reiterated standing Russian objectives in eastern...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21

The Kremlin declared victory in the battle of Mariupol. Russian forces will attempt to starve out remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Az...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19

Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conduc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16

Ukraine’s sinking of the Moskva was a significant event that has likely triggered intensified Russian air and missile attacks in retaliat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15

Russian forces continued small-scale, tactical attacks on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes; additional reinforcements to date have not en...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14

The Russian missile cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, sunk on April 14 after a likely Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13

Russian claims of a mass Ukrainian surrender in Mariupol are likely false, but Russian forces forced Ukrainian troops to abandon the Ilyi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10

Russian forces made territorial gains in Mariupol in the past 24 hours and continued to reinforce operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk ax...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9

The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8

Ukrainian forces retain control of defensive positions in eastern and southwestern Mariupol, despite Russian claims to have captured most...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7

Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the cit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30

Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29

We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold thei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, entering the city center on March 24, but conducted few offensive o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and arou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war.  That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18

Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to se...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17

Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15

Local company- and battalion-level attacks by Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March 14-15 likely indicate the largest-scale offensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14

Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northea...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12

Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11

Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after faile...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take ...

Warning Update: Russia may conduct a chemical or radiological false-flag attack as a pretext for greater aggression against Ukraine

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7

Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6

The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4

Russian forces continue their focus on encircling Kyiv. The western envelopment remains bogged down but Russian troops have moved more ra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1

Russian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2022

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2022