Kateryna Stepanenko

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2024

Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the Avdiivka area on April 30 for the first time in several days, while Ukrainian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2024

US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, incl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024

The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that delays in American security assistance have forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2024

Ukraine destroyed the Project 22160 Sergei Kotov large patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) off the coast of the Kerch Strait on the ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2024

Sweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2024

Ukrainian and Russian authorities opened criminal investigations into the January 24 Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crash in B...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2024

Ukraine’s Long-Term Path to Success: Jumpstarting a Self-Sufficient Defense Industrial Base with US and EU Support

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the West as Russia’s “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defea...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22, 2023

Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russia maintains its maximalist objectives and additional goals for territorial conquest in Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20, 2023

Head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill made a series of anti-migrant and xenophobic remarks that directl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18, 2023

Ukrainian Strikes Have Changed Russian Naval Operations in the Black Sea

Ukrainian forces launched a successful preemptive strike campaign against the Russian BSF in the summer and fall of 2023, which aimed to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16, 2023

Ukrainian forces continue operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast amid reported difficult conditions in ...

The High Price of Losing Ukraine

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a two-part conception of Russian identity in a speech on November 28: a “Russian nation” – cl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2023

Russian forces launched the largest drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion overnight on November 24 to 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18, 2023

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 17 to 18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2023

Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather con...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 10, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 6, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2023

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the war in Ukraine is not a “stalemate” in a comment to the media about Ukrainian ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30, 2023

Russian officials announced that Russian law enforcement suppressed the antisemitic riots in Makhachkala, Republic of Dagestan on October...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28, 2023

Remnants of the Wagner Group appear to be fighting in the Avdiivka direction subordinate to Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) controlled ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14, 2023

US and Ukrainian officials reported on October 12 and 13 that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expre...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 20th Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 and promoted multiple long-standing Russian infor...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3, 2023

Weakness is Lethal: Why Putin Invaded Ukraine and How the War Must End

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2023

ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023

Russian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30, 2023

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2023

Russian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2023

Ukrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russian logistics and port infrastructure in occupied Crime...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2023

How the Ukraine Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed

The situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2023

Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2023

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2023

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLO...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6, 2023

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces are not in Belarus as of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2023

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reput...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minist...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023

The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherso...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023

Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2023

The Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine fo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023

Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2023

Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2023

Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prior...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023

Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the l...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023

Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023

Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to appoint an overall theater commander for his invasion of Ukraine has had cascading effec...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2023

Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023

Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2023

Russian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian politi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2023

ISW is publishing a special edition campaign assessment today, April 9. This report discusses Russia’s religious repressions throughout o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2023

The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2, 2023

Unknown actors killed Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin in a deliberate and targeted attack during an event in a St. Petersburg bar reporte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023

Russian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2023

The conflict between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely reached its climax against...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023

Ukrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2023

 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023

UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on Februar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023

Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2023

Russia has partially regained the ability to conduct successful information campaigns in support of strategic objectives and even discret...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023

Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2023

his report focuses on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cautious approach to risk-taking after having thrown the dice on launching a ful...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023

Russian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023

Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023

This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023

Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 22, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2023

The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely respon...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2023

Ukrainian officials specified that a Russian Kh-22 missile struck a residential building in Dnipro City on January 14, killing at least 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2023

Russian forces launched two waves of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure on January

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on the evening of Janua...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023

The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28

The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24

Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23

Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aim...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18

This report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16

Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11

Russian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s i...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets with...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6

The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concer...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5

Russian forces conducted another wave of missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on December 5. Russian and Ukrainian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23

The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20

This report discusses the rising influence of the milblogger (military correspondent or voenkor) community in Russia despite its increasi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to em...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12

Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...