Kateryna Stepanenko

356 Results

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros 1 day ago ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros 2 days ago ANALYSIS

ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward 3 days ago ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes September 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird September 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2023

Mason Clark Annika Ganzeveld Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey September 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans August 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko August 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov August 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans August 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov August 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey August 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russian logistics and port infrastructure in occupied Crime...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Christina Harward Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

How the Ukraine Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed

Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Frederick W. Kagan August 03, 2023 ANALYSIS

The situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward George Barros Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2023

Mason Clark Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLO...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces are not in Belarus as of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros June 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reput...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko June 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko June 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023

Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minist...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes June 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko June 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukra...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes June 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2023

Mason Clark Annika Ganzeveld Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey June 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherso...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey June 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine fo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey May 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prior...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes May 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the l...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2023

Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2023

Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey April 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to appoint an overall theater commander for his invasion of Ukraine has had cascading effec...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Angela Howard April 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes April 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20. A prominent...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2023

Mason Clark Angela Howard Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko April 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko April 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird April 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey April 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko April 10, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian politi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2023

Mitchell Belcher Will Kielm Daniel Mealie Thomas Bergeron Noel Mikkelsen Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros April 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

ISW is publishing a special edition campaign assessment today, April 9. This report discusses Russia’s religious repressions throughout o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird April 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko April 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2023

Mason Clark Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Riley Bailey April 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko April 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Unknown actors killed Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin in a deliberate and targeted attack during an event in a St. Petersburg bar reporte...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey April 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 30, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard March 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko March 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out fear of compl...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey March 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 21, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird March 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey March 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Jo...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko March 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

The conflict between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely reached its climax against...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 09, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2023

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian authorities indicated that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut for now.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes March 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023

George Barros Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko March 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko February 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 24, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko February 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on Februar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 18, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros February 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird February 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko February 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russia has partially regained the ability to conduct successful information campaigns in support of strategic objectives and even discret...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 07, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 06, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2023

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko February 05, 2023 ANALYSIS

his report focuses on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cautious approach to risk-taking after having thrown the dice on launching a ful...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 01, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 31, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kimberly Kagan Frederick W. Kagan January 29, 2023 ANALYSIS

This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 28, 2023 ANALYSIS

Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 27, 2023 ANALYSIS

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023

Nicole Wolkov Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 26, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird January 25, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Karolina Hird January 23, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partiall...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 22, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko January 22, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2023

Layne Philipson George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 20, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey George Barros January 19, 2023 ANALYSIS

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros January 17, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Grace Mappes Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko January 16, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely respon...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2023

Mason Clark George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko January 15, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials specified that a Russian Kh-22 missile struck a residential building in Dnipro City on January 14, killing at least 2...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2023

Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko January 14, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian forces launched two waves of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure on January

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13

Mason Clark Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko January 13, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on the evening of Janua...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12

Mason Clark Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Madison Williams Riley Bailey January 12, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 11, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8

Mason Clark Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 08, 2023 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey January 04, 2023 ANALYSIS

The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 2, 2023

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 02, 2023 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on D...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros December 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Madison Williams George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Moscow has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)--a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aim...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros December 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird December 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

This report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey December 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s i...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets with...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird December 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard December 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concer...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson December 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted another wave of missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on December 5. Russian and Ukrainian s...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko December 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey December 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20

Grace Mappes Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko November 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

This report discusses the rising influence of the milblogger (military correspondent or voenkor) community in Russia despite its increasi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey Yekaterina Klepanchuk Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14

Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to em...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9

Mason Clark Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the eas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7

Mason Clark Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry on Novembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 6

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko November 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Key Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5

Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird November 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the co...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart the Donetsk offensive but will likely still fail to achieve o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1

Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanne...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Members of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22

Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor October 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor October 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next seve...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Sta...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko October 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

The attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, coupled with recent Russian military failures and partial mobilization, is generating direct criti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko October 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko October 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sourc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko October 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

This campaign assessment special edition focuses on dramatic changes in the Russian information space following the Russian defeat around...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russia...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Assessing Putin’s Implicit Nuclear Threats After Annexation

Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor Mason Clark September 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not threaten an immediate nuclear attack to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensives into Russian-occupi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27

Mason Clark Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor September 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26

Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Mason Clark Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird September 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its fal...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and forma...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending agai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird September 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the Februa...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10

Mason Clark Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of Septembe...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8

Mason Clark Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5

Mason Clark Angela Howard Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko September 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1

Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his false framing of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a defensive operation to prot...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 30

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces began striking Russian pontoon ferries across the Dnipro River on August 29, which is consistent with the start of the U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian military officials announced the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast on August 29. Ukrainian officials re...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 28

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on August 27 in a reported effort to assist stateless peoples and residents of Donbas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird August 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive opera...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird August 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces’ momentum from territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in late July is likely exhausted, and Russian attacks in east...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol on August ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko August 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in Crimea on August 16. Local report...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia reportedly refused to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about th...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko August 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharki...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

The US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Angela Howard Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Angela Howard Kateryna Stepanenko August 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, b...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian forces traded accusations of dangerous shelling at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russia is using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3

Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko August 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disas...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Kateryna Stepanenko August 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukrai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson July 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko July 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are likely prioritizing offensive operations toward Bakhmut and around Donetsk City at the expense of efforts to take Sive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29

Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28. Ukraine and Russia ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Katherine Lawlor Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ong...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitation...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause as of July 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Frederick W. Kagan July 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Uk...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12

Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird July 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are conducting a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine and engaging in operations to set conditions for future offensi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko July 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian-backed occupation authorities in Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating t...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko July 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are not conducting an operational pause as of July 8 and are ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird July 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced on July 7 that Russian forces in Ukraine are pausing to rest and regain ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting ISW’s ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3

Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko July 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychans...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros July 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30

Grace Mappes Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces retreated from the Snake Island on June 30 following a Ukrainian missile and artillery campaign. The Russian Defense Mini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28

Grace Mappes Mason Clark George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko June 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26

Grace Mappes Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike against the Schevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv on June 26, likely to coincide with the o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23

Grace Mappes Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ongoing Belarusian mobilization exercises will continue in Gomel Oblast until July 1 but are unlikely to be in preparation for direct Bel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21

Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark June 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces and may be in the process of radically reshuffling the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

The UK Ministry of Defense assesses that the Kremlin’s continued framing of its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrai...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16

Grace Mappes George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from U...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15

Grace Mappes Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Western officials announced additional military aid for Ukraine on June 15.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian officials are increasingly taking over governmental positions in occupied Ukrainian territory, advancing the Kremlin's likely eff...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukraini...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7

George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground as...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian fr...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko June 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces will “accelerate” the “special military operation” in Ukraine in a mee...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikel...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird June 01, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 31, 2022 ANALYSIS

Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kh...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan May 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko May 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and L...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are inste...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark Karolina Hird May 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Ob...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces are continuing to inflict air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian de...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the front line in Ukraine on May 16.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15

George Barros Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Sive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13

Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko May 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensiv...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9

Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird May 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7

Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Mason Clark May 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv is making significant progress and will likely advance to the Russian border in the c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5

George Barros Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko May 05, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4

Mason Clark Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 04, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian defenses have largely stalled Russian advances in Eastern Ukraine. Russian troops conducted a number of unsuccessful attacks in...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3

Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 03, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. A significant Ukrainian c...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2

Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko May 02, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 28, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances on April 28.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 27, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on A...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 26, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress south from Izyum and northwest of Rubizhne, but Russian offensive operations els...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 25, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued offensive operations along multiple axes even as they completed moving reinforcements drawn from the retreat fro...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

A briefing by the Russian Deputy Commander of the Central Military District on April 22 reiterated standing Russian objectives in eastern...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Kremlin declared victory in the battle of Mariupol. Russian forces will attempt to starve out remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Az...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conduc...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukraine’s sinking of the Moskva was a significant event that has likely triggered intensified Russian air and missile attacks in retaliat...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15

Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued small-scale, tactical attacks on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes; additional reinforcements to date have not en...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14

George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian missile cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, sunk on April 14 after a likely Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian claims of a mass Ukrainian surrender in Mariupol are likely false, but Russian forces forced Ukrainian troops to abandon the Ilyi...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12

George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Frederick W. Kagan April 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made territorial gains in Mariupol in the past 24 hours and continued to reinforce operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk ax...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan April 09, 2022 ANALYSIS

The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8

Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 08, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces retain control of defensive positions in eastern and southwestern Mariupol, despite Russian claims to have captured most...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7

Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark April 07, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the cit...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark April 06, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any m...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 30, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 29, 2022 ANALYSIS

We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold thei...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 24, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, entering the city center on March 24, but conducted few offensive o...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 23, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 22, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and arou...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 21, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city an...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 20, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Frederick W. Kagan March 19, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operatio...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 18, 2022 ANALYSIS

Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to se...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 17, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 16, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th ...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 15, 2022 ANALYSIS

Local company- and battalion-level attacks by Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March 14-15 likely indicate the largest-scale offensive...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 14, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northea...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 13, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 12, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounti...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 11, 2022 ANALYSIS

Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after faile...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10

Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Mason Clark March 10, 2022 ANALYSIS

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take ...

Warning Update: Russia may conduct a chemical or radiological false-flag attack as a pretext for greater aggression against Ukraine

Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor March 09, 2022 ANALYSIS