Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 3, 2026

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Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30 pm ET on January 3. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the January 4 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issued a boilerplate response condemning the US military operation against Venezuela on January 3. The Russian MFA condemned the US operation and reaffirmed Russia's support for the Venezuelan leadership's policies to protect Venezuelan national interests.[1] The MFA called for the United States and Venezuela to find a resolution through dialogue and stated that Russia is prepared to assist in these efforts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke on January 3 with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and reiterated the MFA's statements during the call.[2] The Russian MFA denied a January 3 report from Reuters claiming that Rodriguez is in Russia.[3] Russian milbloggers responded to the US operation in Venezuela, including by criticizing the Venezuelan military as weak and unprepared and highlighting Russia's missile stockpiles and nuclear deterrence capabilities in comparison.[4]

Ukraine met with national security advisors from its Western allies and partners in Kyiv on January 3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on January 3 that he met with the national security advisors of member states of the Coalition of the Willing and representatives of the European Council, European Commission, and NATO.[5] Zelensky reported that the officials discussed a framework peace plan, security guarantees, and the reconstruction and economic recovery of Ukraine. First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsya stated that Ukraine presented the main documents from the ongoing peace negotiations to the national security advisors ahead of the January 6 meeting of leaders of the Coalition of the Willing states in Paris.[6]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced further personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and military. Zelensky reported on January 2 that he proposed current Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov to take the position of minister of defense.[7] Zelensky noted that Fedorov can implement his experience in facilitating Ukraine’s “Drone Line” project (which aims to integrate drone and ground operations in the Ukrainian military) and digitalizing state services and processes in the defense sector. Zelensky proposed to appoint current Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal as the new minister of energy and first deputy prime minister.[8] Zelensky additionally announced that he will appoint First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsya as the first deputy head of the Office of the President and noted that Kyslytsya will continue to work in the Ukrainian negotiating delegation.[9] Zelensky further reported that he is considering new candidates to head the military administrations in Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Ternopil, and Chernihiv oblasts.[10]

Key Takeaways:

•       The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issued a boilerplate response condemning the US military operation against Venezuela on January 3.
•             Ukraine met with national security advisors from its Western allies and partners in Kyiv on January 3.
•             Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced further personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and military.
•       Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

•       Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
•       Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
•       Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
•       Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
•       Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
•       Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
•       Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
•       Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
•       Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Nothing significant to report.

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on January 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Sumy City near Kindrativka, Oleksiivka, Andriivka, and Varachyne and southeast of Sumy City near Hrabovske on January 2 and 3.[11]

A Russian milblogger claimed on January 3 that Russian forces conducted guided glide bomb strikes against Ryasne (east of Hrabovske).[12]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly operating in the Sumy direction.[13]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 31 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Sotnytskyi Kozachok (northwest of Kharkiv City).[14]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Starytsya, Prylipka, Vilcha, and Lyman and toward Izbytske on January 2 and 3.[15] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Vovchanski Khutory.[16]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in northern Kharkiv Oblast stated on January 3 that Russian forces have decreased the number of assaults in the last week in the sector Vovchansk— Dvorichanske (southeast of Velykyi Burluk) sector due to cold weather that the long approach to frontline positions difficult.[17] The spokesperson stated that the expanding contested "gray zone" in the area and Russian efforts to accumulate forces may also be contributing to the decreased number of Russian attacks.

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Velykyi Burluk near Khatnie on January 2 and 3 but did not advance.[18]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on January 2 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced near the P-79 Kupyansk-Chuhuiv highway in central Kupyansk.[19]

Russian forces attacked within and near Kupyansk itself; northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; east of Kupyansk toward Petropavlivka and Kucherivka; and southeast of Kupyansk toward Kurylivka on January 2 and 3.[20] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked within Kupyansk.[21]

Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on January 3 that there are fewer than 100 Russian servicemembers remaining in Kupyansk and that Russian Western Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev has tasked Russian forces with seizing Kupyansk by February 2026.[22] Trehubov stated that the remaining Russian forces are mostly hiding in basements in central and northwestern Kupyansk and that Russian forces are struggling to resupply the servicemembers with drones. Trehubov stated that Russian forces are trying to infiltrate Kupyansk from the north but that the number of Russian attacks has decreased in the last few days as Russian forces have been increasingly regrouping. Trehubov stated that Russian forces have increased glide bomb strikes against Kupyansk but noted that it took Russian forces two years to destroy Vovchansk — a much smaller settlement than Kupyansk — with glide bombs. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger questioned the insufficient amount of footage confirming a Russian presence in Myrove (west of Kupyansk).[23] The milblogger claimed that Russian drone operations in the Kupyansk direction have returned to full capacity after the weather recently cleared.

Order of Battle: Molniya fixed-wing drone operators of the Russian 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are striking Ukrainian positions northwest of Stepova Novoselivka (southeast of Kupyansk).[24]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on January 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka and southeast of Borova near Olhivka on January 2 and 3.[25]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA, Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly operating near Bohuslavka.[26]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Lyman direction on January 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Novoselivka and Drobysheve; north of Lyman near Stavky; northeast of Lyman near Myrne; and east of Lyman near Zarichne and Torske on January 2 and 3.[27]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly operating in the Lyman direction.[28]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on January 3 but did not make confirmed advances.

Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on January 3 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian servicemember northwest of Fedorivka (southwest of Siversk) in what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission that did not change control of terrain or the forward edge of battle area (FEBA).[29]

Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Bondarne (southwest of Siversk), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced south of the settlement.[30] A Russian source credited elements of the Russian 85th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) with the claimed seizure of Bondarne.[31] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in eastern Riznykivka (southwest of Siversk).[32]

Russian forces attacked near Siversk itself; northwest of Siversk near Dibrova, Dronivka, Yampil, Zakitne, and Ozerne; south of Siversk near Pereizne; and southwest of Siversk near Bondarne, Riznykivka, and Pazeno, and toward Nykyforivka on January 2 and 3.[33]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on January 2 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along the E-40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (northeast of Kostyantynivka).[34]

Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka; northeast of Kostyantynivka near Markove, Mayske, Minkivka, and Zaliznyanske; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Oleksandro-Shultyne; south of Kostyantynivka near Pleshchiivka, Kleban-Byk, Shcherbynivka, and Ivanopillya and toward Berestok; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar and toward Stepanivka and Mykolaipillya; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Sofiivka on January 2 and 3.[35]

Order of Battle: Zala reconnaissance drone operators of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian artillery near Petrivka (southwest of Druzhkivka).[36] First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian equipment near Rusyn Yar, Sofiivka, and Dovha Balka (southwest of Kostyantynivka).[37]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya direction on January 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked east of Dobropillya near Nove Shakhove on January 2 and 3.[38]

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are struggling to both enter and exit positions in Shakhove (east of Dobropillya) due to the Ukrainian "kill zone" (an area of elevated drone strike risk) in the area.[39] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted guided glide bomb strikes against Novyi Donbas (southeast of Dobropillya).[40]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 61st Separate Naval Infantry Brigade (Northern Fleet) are reportedly operating in Shakhove.[41] Artillery elements and drone operators of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in the Dobropillya direction.[42]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on January 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near and within Pokrovsk itself; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske and Bilytske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Chervonyi (Krasnyi) Lyman; east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Udachne, and Molodetske on January 2 and 3.[43]

Ukraine's East Group of Forces reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Myrnohrad and northern Pokrovsk.[44] A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Ukrainian forces control Molodetske.[45] The spokesperson of another Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian forces are taking advantage of poor weather conditions and poor nighttime visibility to try to infiltrate sabotage groups into Myrnohrad.[46] The spokesperson stated that part of Myrnohrad is a contested "gray zone" as Russian forces aim to exhaust Ukrainian forces, complicate Ukrainian logistics, and gradually infiltrate the town with small groups.

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) are reportedly operating in Myrnohrad.[47] FPV drone operators of the 80th Sparta Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (51st CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian equipment near Novooleksandrivka (northwest of Pokrovsk).[48]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on January 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka itself and south of Novopavlivka near Yalta, Filiya, and Dachne on January 2 and 3.[49]

The deputy commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Novopavlivka direction reported on January 3 that Russian forces are waiting for weather conditions to worsen to try to advance.[50] The deputy commander noted that Russian movements are more visible in the snow, forcing Russian troops to expend effort on trying to cover their tracks in order to attack.

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Oleksandrivka near Zelenyi Hai and Andriivka-Klevtsove and southeast of Oleksandrivka near Vorone, Oleksandrohrad, and Vyshneve on January 2 and 3 but did not advance.[51]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction on January 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Hulyaipole itself; northeast of Hulyaipole near Uspenivka, Rybne, and Zlahoda; north of Hulyaipole near Dobropillya; northwest of Hulyaipole near Zelene; and south of Hulyaipole near Dorozhnyanka on January 2 and 3.[52]

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a guided glide bomb strike against Ukrainian forces near Zaliznychne (west of Hulyaipole).[53]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating in Hulyaipole.[54] Drone operators of the Russian 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th CAA) are striking Ukrainian forces in Tsvitkove (northwest of Hulyaipole).[55] Drone operators of the 16th Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Brigade (EMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in Vozdvyzhivka (northwest of Hulyaipole).[56] Drone operators of the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment (35th CAA, EMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Verkhnya Tersa (northwest of Hulyaipole).[57] Loitering munitions and artillery elements of the 305th Artillery Brigade (5th CAA) and elements of the 189th Motorized Rifle Regiment (35th CAA) are reportedly operating in Zaporizhia Oblast.[58]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on January 2 and 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked southeast of Orikhiv near Bilohirya and west of Orikhiv near Stepnohirsk, Stepove, Novoandriivka, Prymorske, and Plavni on January 2 and 3.[59]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Orikhiv direction reported that Russian forces have increased the number of infantry attacks but are not using lightly armored or heavy equipment.[60] The spokesperson stated that Russian forces are struggling to attack due to a lack of concealment from the open terrain. A Russian milblogger noted that poor weather conditions in the Zaporizhia direction are disrupting Russian drone operators' connections with their drones.[61]

 Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 108th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) and 4th Military Base (58th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[62] Elements of the 104th VDV Regiment (76th VDV Division) and Nemets Group of the 3rd Assault Company of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[63]

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Kherson direction on January 2 and 3 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked in the Kherson direction, including east of Kherson City toward the Antonivskyi Bridge, on January 2 and 3.[64]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 331st VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Kherson direction.[65]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 2 to 3. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 95 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — of which about 60 were Shahed-type drones — from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Hvardiiske, Kacha, and Cape Chauda, Crimea.[66] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 80 drones, that 15 drones hit 8 locations, and that drone debris fell on two locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential and civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Kherson, and Kyiv oblasts.[67] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched an unspecified Russian cruise missile strike against residential infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast on January 3.[68]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi reported on January 2 that air traffic monitoring shows that at least four Belarusian Air Force Il-76 transport planes landed in Tehran, Iran, on December 30 and 31.[69] Militarnyi reported that the planes were carrying military cargo from Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC).

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.