Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2025

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:15pm ET on September 19. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the September 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace on September 19. The Estonian General Staff reported on September 19 that three Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland near Vaindloo Island (about 81 kilometers southeast of Helsinki) for roughly 12 minutes.[i] The Estonian General Staff reported that the Russian aircraft had no published flight plans and that the aircrafts' transponders were disabled, preventing Estonian air traffic control from two-way communication with the pilots. NATO Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) reported that NATO scrambled Italian F-35 fighter jets based in Estonia as part of Operation Eastern Sentry and that Sweden and Finland also scrambled their respective quick reaction aircraft.[ii] Estonian Defense Forces Spokesperson Major Taavi Karotamm stated that the Russian MiG-31s flew parallel to the Estonian border from east to west and entered Estonian airspace at a depth of less than 10 kilometers.[iii] Karotamm added that Finnish Air Force fighter jets and Italian F-35s escorted the Russian jets from Estonian airspace to Kaliningrad Oblast. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated on September 19 that this is the fourth time that Russia violated Estonian airspace in 2025, but that the September 19 incursion involving three fighter jets is “unprecedentedly brazen.”[iv] Russian military aviation previously violated Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island on June 2 and September 7, and southwest of the island near Juminda on May 13.[v]

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal announced that Estonia invoked consultations under Article 4 of the NATO Treaty in response to Russia's airspace violation.[vi] Article 4 states that a NATO member state can call a meeting to consult on any issue in which the “territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any Parties is threatened” and that fellow member states are encouraged to respond to the situation.[vii] NATO Spokesperson Allison Hart stated on September 19 that NATO immediately responded to Russia’s incursion and intercepted the Russian aircraft and that this was yet another example of "reckless Russian behavior" and NATO’s ability to respond to this behavior.[viii] NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reported that NATO responded quickly and decisively to the Russian incursion under Operation Eastern Sentry.[ix] NATO announced the start of Operation Eastern Sentry on September 12, and NATO officials noted that the intent of the operation is to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank, including Estonia, following the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace and violation of NATO airspace overnight on September 9 to 10.[x] ISW continues to assess that Russia is deliberately attempting to gauge NATO’s capabilities and reactions to various air incursions in hopes of applying lessons learned to possible future conflicts against the NATO alliance.[xi]

European officials continue to discuss the creation of a defensive "drone wall" and provide military support for Ukraine following Russia's violation of Polish airspace on September 9 to 10. European Union (EU) Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius stated on September 18 that he will convene EU defense ministers next week to discuss the creation of a "drone wall" on the EU's eastern border in response to Russia's drone incursion into Poland.[xii] Kubilius stated that the project will likely include a mix of sensors and defense and jamming systems to detect and neutralize drones, and suggested that the EU could complete the drone wall within a year. Kubilius first announced the drone wall proposal on September 15 and stated that Russia's drone incursion over Poland demonstrated the EU's need to increase its capabilities to defend against potential drone strikes.[xiii] Kubilius stated that the EU will cooperate with Ukraine to develop the drone wall project. Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak expressed support for Ukraine's potential involvement in the EU drone wall project.[xiv] A NATO representative told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on September 19 that Ukraine's allies delivered the first weapons purchased through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, through which European states purchase weapons for Ukraine from the United States.[xv]

The Kremlin continues to reject blame for the Russian drone incursion into Poland's airspace. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on September 19 that the circumstances surrounding the recent drone incursion into Polish airspace on September 10 remain unclear.[xvi] Zakharova claimed that European countries are accusing Russia of launching the drones without presenting compelling evidence and that Poland's refusal to consult with Russian officials demonstrates that the broader West is uninterested in understanding the incident. Russian officials have consistently rejected responsibility for the drone incursion and criticized European efforts to defend against Russian aggression.[xvii]

Russia is reportedly using joint energy ventures to sell military equipment to Vietnam and evade Western sanctions. The Associated Press (AP) reported on September 19 that it obtained a 2024 internal memo from Vietnamese state energy company Petrovietnam (PVN) that outlines how Russia and Vietnam pay for Russian arms without exchanging money through SWIFT institutions, thereby avoiding Western sanctions against Russian arms exports.[xviii] The documents reportedly outline that Vietnam would transfer its share of profits from the Russian-Vietnamese joint Rusvietpetro oil and gas company venture to Russia to pay back credit used for military purchases, then transfer any extra funds to Russian state oil and gas company Zarubezhneft, after which Zarubezhneft will use a separate joint venture company to transfer an equal amount of money back to PVN. The document reportedly identifies these steps as means to bypass US and other Western sanctions against Russia. AP reported that PVN produced the document ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin's June 2024 visit to Vietnam and that Russia and Vietnam began considering this scheme in 2023. Russia and Vietnam signed a strategic comprehensive partnership in 2012.[xix] Putin used his June 2024 visits to Vietnam, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and North Korea to posture Russia's strategic partners as part of an anti-Western coalition that supports Russia and its war against Ukraine.[xx]

Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in Ukraine, including executions of civilians. The Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported on September 19 that Russian soldiers executed three civilians in occupied Kozachi Laheri (east of Kherson City) on the night of September 17 to 18.[xxi] The Ukrainian Center of Journalistic Investigations reported on September 19 that locals stated that drunk Russian servicemen, possibly from the Russian 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade, executed the civilians after two civilians denied the servicemen alcohol and a third confronted the servicemen after hearing the initial gunshots.[xxii] Russian soldiers have committed extreme atrocities against civilians and soldiers in occupied Ukraine, and ISW continues to assess that Russian battlefield commanders enable such atrocities against Ukrainian civilians.[xxiii]

Russia continues to censor critics of its war in Ukraine, including critics of Russia's handling of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Justice announced on September 19 that it designated Roman Alekhin, a milblogger and the former advisor to the then-Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov, as a foreign agent for spreading "false information" about the Russian military.[xxiv] Alekhin rejected the foreign agent label and responded that he does not receive foreign funding.[xxv] Alekhin claimed that the status may be a reaction to his September 10 interview with the Russian opposition outlet Dozhd in which Alekhin rejected accusations of embezzling funds for aid meant for the Russian military and claimed that he faced censorship in the Russian information space.[xxvi] Smirnov appointed Alekhin as a volunteer advisor in July 2024, and Alekhin resigned from the position in December 2024 after Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Smirnov with Alexander Khinshtein following Russia's poor domestic response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.[xxvii] Russian law enforcement arrested Alekhin for embezzling money on September 9, 2025.[xxviii] Alekhin was highly critical of the Russian government's handling of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, including blaming the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Federal Security Service's (FSB) Border Guard Director for the incursion.[xxix] The Kremlin persecuted and scapegoated Smirnov for the Kremlin's own failure to adequately respond to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.[xxx] The Russian government's arrest of Alekhin is likely a continuation of their ongoing efforts to scapegoat Kursk Oblast officials for the Russian military's failure to counteract the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast and censor complaints against the Russian federal government among ultranationalist milbloggers. Some Russian milbloggers rejected Alekhin's foreign agent designation and claimed that Alekhin provided significant humanitarian and communications support to the frontline and that the arrest is an abuse of the Russian legal system.[xxxi]

Key Takeaways:

• Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace on September 19.
• European officials continue to discuss the creation of a defensive "drone wall" and provide military support for Ukraine following Russia's violation of Polish airspace on September 9 to 10.
• The Kremlin continues to reject blame for the Russian drone incursion into Poland's airspace.
• Russia is reportedly using joint energy ventures to sell military equipment to Vietnam and evade Western sanctions.
• Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in Ukraine, including executions of civilians.
• Russia continues to censor critics of its war in Ukraine, including critics of Russia's handling of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and near Lyman and Novopavlivka.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.    

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian logistics hub in Kursk Oblast on the night of September 18 to 19. The Ukrainian Special Forces (SSO) reported on September 19 that SSO drone operators conducted a strike against the logistics hub of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) in Kursk Oblast on the night of September 18 to 19.[xxxii] The SSO reported that the strike damaged an equipment storage base, ammunition depot, and concealed weapons and equipment deployment point. Geolocated footage published on September 19 shows explosions at a Russian military base in Giri, Kursk Oblast.[xxxiii]

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on September 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked in Sumy and Kursk oblasts, including north of Sumy City near Oleksiivka and northeast of Sumy City near Yunakivka, on September 18 and 19.[xxxiv] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Oleksiivka, Yunakivka, Kindrativka, Andriivka, Bilovody, and Varachyne (all north of Sumy City), and Sadky (northeast of Sumy City).[xxxv] One Russian milblogger claimed that fighting in the Sumy direction has intensified due to Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.[xxxvi]

A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that North Korean forces are officially conducting security and demining operations in Kursk Oblast and argued that Russian forces should more effectively employ North Korean forces in assaults on Ukrainian territory.[xxxvii] The milblogger claimed that Russian servicemembers who fought alongside North Korean forces praised North Korean soldiers' efficiency and resolve in assault operations and deference to Russian forces. The milblogger claimed that Russian servicemembers noted that North Korean forces are prone to friendly fire against Russian forces and that wounded North Korean servicemembers refuse treatment and resist Russian medics‘ attempts to evacuate them to not undermine assault operations.

The milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that the 2nd and 3rd battalions of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are relieving elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) near Sadky and Oleksiivka, and that small infantry groups from the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment are infiltrating to positions in Oleksiivka from the Gordeevka area (southeast of Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast).[xxxviii] The milblogger claimed that the Russian military command responded to Russian milblogger complaints and changed the rotation routes for elements of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment after the regiment's 2nd Battalion suffered heavy losses during failed rotation attempts near Oleksiivka on September 18.[xxxix]

Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Russian forces conducted Shahed drone strikes against Ukrainian manpower and equipment in Zelena Dibrova and Doroshenkove (both northwest of Sumy City near the international border).[xl]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 137th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Sumy direction.[xli] Drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces and cell towers in the Sumy direction.[xlii] Drone operators of the Anvar Spetsnaz Detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 Anvar volunteer detachment) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces and cell towers in the border areas of Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts.[xliii] Elements of the 10th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment (44th AC, LMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.[xliv]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on September 19 but did not advance.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Synelnykove (northeast of Kharkiv City).[xlv]

Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv City near Hlyboke and toward Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City in Vovchansk, including on the left (south) bank of the Vovcha River, and near Vovchanski Khutory, Tykhe, and Synelnykove on September 18 and 19.[xlvi]

Derhachi Hromada Military Administration Spokesperson Oleksandr Kulik stated on September 19 that Russian forces are remotely mining roads near Kozacha Lopan (north of Kharkiv City along the international border) and are using first-person-view (FPV) fiber optic drones to strike passing cars and people indiscriminately.[xlvii] Kulik stated that Russian mines and drone strikes have made it impossible to move within and near Kozacha Lopan, and that Ukrainian officials are no longer able to evacuate residents from the settlement. Derhachi Hromada Military Administration Head Vyacheslav Zadorenko stated that Russian forces are attaching mines with remote detonators to firewood near Kozacha Lopan to kill residents who use firewood for heat.[xlviii] Zadorenko noted that Russian strikes have made it impossible to evacuate civilians from Kozacha Lopan, Tokarivka, Hoptivka, Velykyi Prokhody, and Mali Prokhody (all north of Kharkiv City near the international border) and that civilians must evacuate by foot.

The Ukrainian State Border Guard reported on September 19 that Ukrainian drone operators struck a Russian fuel and lubricant warehouse, two drone launch locations, and communication and drone launch systems near Vovchansk.[xlix]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Chechen Okhotnik (Hunter) Akhmat Spetsnaz Detachment (51st Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions south of Mali Prokhody.[l] Drone operators of the Russian 1009th Motorized Rifle Regiment (69th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th CAA, Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in and near Vovchansk.[li]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on September 19 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced northwest of Odradne (east of Velykyi Burluk).[lii]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Velykyi Burluk from Milove toward Khatnie and east of Velykyi Burluk near Odradne on September 18 and 19.[liii]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on September 19 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced into western Kupyansk.[liv]

Russian forces attacked near Kupyansk itself, north of Kupyansk near Kindrashivka, northeast of Kupyansk near Fyholivka and toward Bolohivka (near the international border), and southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka and Pischane and toward Novoosynove on September 18 and 19.[lv]

Kupyansk Raion Military Administration Head Andriy Kanashevich reported that Russian forces struck and killed a civilian in Kupyansk with a first-person-view (FPV) drone on September 15.[lvi]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Vasylivka (southwest of Kupyansk).[lvii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on September 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked toward Borova itself and east of Borova toward Shyikivka on September 18 and 19.[lviii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Hrekivka (southeast of Borova).[lix]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on September 19 showing two Russian soldiers planting a flag along the northern bank of the Severskiy Donets River in the Serebryanske forest area (southeast of Lyman) indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in the area.[lx]

Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized the entire Serebryanske forest area.[lxi] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced southwest of Serednie (northwest of Lyman), west of Kolodyazi (northeast of Lyman), and into northern Yampil (southeast of Lyman).[lxii]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Lyman near Shandryholove, Novoselivka, Serednie, and Derylove; north of Lyman near Novomykhailivka; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi and toward Stavky; east of Lyman near Zarichne and Torske; and southeast of Lyman near Yampil and in the Serebryanske forest area on September 18 and 19.[lxiii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Ridkodub (north of Lyman).[lxiv]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported that Russian forces are attempting to coordinate drone and infantry movements and that Russian reconnaissance drones are constantly operating in the area.[lxv] The spokesperson reported that Russian small fire teams disperse and attack from different directions, splitting Ukrainian forces’ attention. The spokesperson noted that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups consist of well-trained infantry, while regular infiltrators are untrained.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on September 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northwest of Siversk near Dronivka, north of Siversk near Serebryanka, northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka, southeast of Siversk near Vyimka, and south of Siversk near Pereizne on September 18 and 19.[lxvi]

Russian sources published geolocated footage on September 18, indicating that Ukrainian forces hold positions north of Siversk and that Russian sources no longer claim to have advanced in this area.[lxvii]

The commander of a Ukrainian drone unit operating in the Siversk direction stated on September 19 that Russian forces are focusing on interdicting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and are positioning sleeper drones along roads to strike passing vehicles.[lxviii] The Ukrainian commander stated that Russian forces are conducting these drone strikes indiscriminately and targeting "anything that moves," including civilians.

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions north of Siversk.[lxix]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Assessed Russian advances: Footage published on September 18 and geolocated on September 19 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along a windbreak south of Oleksandro-Shultyne (east of Kostyantynivka).[lxx]

Unconfirmed claims: A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Shcherbynivka and northwest Toretsk (both southeast of Kostyantynivka) are contested areas "obscured by the fog of war."[lxxi]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kostyantynivka near Chasiv Yar; east of Kostyantynivka near Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Shcherbynivka, Pleshchiivka, and Toretsk; south of Kostyantynivka near Kleban-Byk; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar and Poltavka; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Sofiivka and Volodymyrivka and toward Mykolaipillya on September 18 and 19.[lxxii] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Predtechyne and Volodymyrivka and toward Novotoretske (southwest of Druzhkivka).[lxxiii]

A volunteer of a humanitarian organization operating in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area reported on September 19 that an increasing threat of Russian drone strikes forced organizers to cancel civilian evacuation missions out of Kostyantynivka.[lxxiv] The volunteer noted that Russian forces have deployed a significant number of fiber-optic sleeper drones and that Russian drone operators use these drones along roads to strike vehicles indiscriminately.

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian equipment near Chervone (northeast of Kostyantynivka).[lxxv]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on September 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked east of Dobropillya near Toretske, Shakhove, Vilne, and Nove Shakhove and southeast of Dobropillya near Zapovidne on September 18 and 19.[lxxvi] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Zapovidne and Pankivka (east of Dobropillya).[lxxvii]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 56th Separate Spetsnaz Battalion (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) and of the 57th Spetsnaz Company (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Shakhove and Volodymyrivka.[lxxviii]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on September 19 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Pokrovsk itself; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Krasnyi Lyman, Novoekonomichne, and Sukhetske; east of Pokrovsk near Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk near Novoukrainka; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Troyanda, Udachne, Zvirove, and Molodetske and toward Novopidhorodne on September 18 and 19.[lxxix]

A senior officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on September 19 that Russian forces continue to expand the drone range and that Russian drones are now making it impossible for Ukrainian forces to use vehicles without electronic warfare (EW) in rear areas that were safe for movement a month ago.[lxxx] The Ukrainian officer noted that drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are particularly dangerous due to their expertise in operating fiber-optic drones. The Ukrainian officer added that Rubikon drone operators position sleeper drones for future strikes along roadways. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces established full fire control over Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) around Pokrovsk.[lxxxi]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on September 19 shows a Russian servicemember raising a flag in western Muravka (northeast of Novopavlivka), indicating that Russian forces likely seized the settlement.[lxxxii] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) credited elements of the Russian 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) with the seizure of Muravka.[lxxxiii] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the northwestern outskirts of Muravka, however.[lxxxiv]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Novopavlivka near Novomykolaivka and Muravka; southeast of Novopavlivka near Dachne and Horikhove; south of Novopavlivka near Filiya; and southwest of Novopavlivka near Ivanivka on September 18 and 19.[lxxxv]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykomykhailivka direction on September 19 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced north of and into eastern Kalynivske (south of Velykomykhailivka).[lxxxvi]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Velykomykhailivka near Andriivka-Klevtsove and Piddubne; east of Velykomykhailivka near Voskresenka, Novoselivka, and Sichneve; southeast of Velykomykhailivka near Komyshuvakha, Maliivka, and Ternove; and south of Velykomykhailivka near Berezove on September 18 and 19.[lxxxvii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Berezove and Kalynivske (south of Velykomykhailivka).[lxxxviii]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Vremivka (Velykomykhailivka) direction.[lxxxix]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on September 19 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced and raised a flag in southwestern Novoivanivka (northeast of Hulyaipole).[xc] Elements of the Russian 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) reportedly participated in the seizure.[xci]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced farther south and west of Novoivanivka than available geolocated footage indicated.[xcii]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Hulyaipole near Novoivanivka, Uspenivka, Olhivske, Novomykolaivka, and Poltavka on September 18 and 19.[xciii]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th CAA, EMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Polohy (Hulyaipole) direction.[xciv]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 19 but did not make confirmed advances. 

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced south of Stepnohirsk (west of Orikhiv).[xcv]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Orikhiv near Prymorske, west of Orikhiv near Kamyanske and  Stepnohirsk, and southwest of Orikhiv toward Novoandriivka on September 18 and 19.[xcvi]

Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov stated on September 19 that authorities are constructing anti-drone netting over roads 15 to 20 kilometers from the frontline due to civilian casualties from Russian fiber-optic first-person-view (FPV) strikes.[xcvii] The Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces struck and injured a civilian in Stepnohirsk with an FPV drone.[xcviii]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 31st Engineering-Sapper Regiment (likely of the 58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) and drone operators of the Nemets group of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA) and 4th Military Base are reportedly operating in Zaporizhia Oblast.[xcix] Drone operators of the 3rd Assault Company of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly struck Ukrainian positions near Orikhiv and Novodanylivka (south of Orikhiv).[c] Drone operators of the Russian 108th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Zaporizhzhia City.[ci]

Russian forces continued limited attacks in the Kherson direction on September 19 but did not advance.

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on September 19 that GUR forces conducted a raid against the Tendrivska Spit (southeast of Kherson City) overnight to position landmines that disabled a Russian DT-10 Vityaz all-terrain vehicle.[cii] [ciii]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 18 to 19. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 86 Shahed-type and decoy drones, including over 50 Shahed drones, from the directions of Kursk City; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[civ] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed or suppressed 71 drones, that 15 drones struck six locations, and that drone debris struck two locations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that the Russian strikes targeted Kyiv City and Kyiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[cv] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces damaged civilian infrastructure, including public transportation infrastructure in Kyiv City, and that strikes in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injured two people.[cvi]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.