Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2025

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast. 

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly. 

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12 pm ET on June 17. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. 

Russian forces conducted the third largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion on the night of June 16 to 17. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 440 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace over Tambov Oblast, 16 Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Saratov Oblast, four Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, nine Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from the airspace over Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts, and one Kh-31P anti-radar missile from an unspecified location. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 239 drones, one Kh-47M2 missile, 15 Kh-101 missiles, and seven Kh-59/59 missiles and that 163 drones, one Kh-47M2 missile, one Kh-59/69 missile, and one Kh-31P missile were "lost" or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported that the Shahed and decoy drones targeting Kyiv City flew from different directions, including along the Dnipro River and from the east and west.[2] Ihnat and Kyiv City Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko stated that Ukrainian authorities found remnants of cluster munitions at the site of missile explosions, and a Ukrainian source posted footage reportedly showing a Russian missile with cluster munitions striking Kyiv City overnight.[3] Ukrainian officials reported that the strikes hit residential areas and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv City and Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Odesa, Sumy, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[4] Ukrainian officials reported civilian casualties in Kyiv and Odesa cities and Chernihiv Oblast.

The June 16-17 strike series heavily targeted Kyiv City and hit residential areas in the capital, as Russian officials and milbloggers called on Russia to intensify its strikes against Ukraine. Kyiv City officials reported that Russian forces launched 175 drones, over 14 cruise missiles, and at least two ballistic missiles against the city overnight.[5] Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko reported that the strikes killed at least 15 people in the city and injured at least 114.[6] Ukrainian officials stated that a Russian ballistic missile hit a nine-story apartment building in Solomianskyi Raion, collapsing the entrance to the building and destroying 30 apartments.[7] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck other civilian and residential infrastructure across Kyiv City.[8] The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (UN HRMMU) reported on June 17 that Russian forces struck at least 30 locations across seven raions in Kyiv City.[9] The UN HRMMU reported that the last strike against Kyiv City with comparable or higher civilian casualties was the July 8, 2024, strike that killed at least 32 civilians and injured 85, including at the Kyiv City Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital.[10] First Deputy Chairperson of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Alexey Zhuravlev advocated on June 17 that Russia should intensify its strikes against Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from regrouping and receiving additional Western aid.[11] A Russian milblogger called for Russia to expand and multiply its strikes as long as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is president.[12]

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu announced that North Korea would send 6,000 sappers and military engineers to help with reconstruction efforts in Kursk Oblast. Shoigu met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un in Pyongyang on June 16 during Shoigu's second visit to North Korea in June 2025.[13] Shoigu stated that Kim agreed to send 1,000 North Korean sappers and 5,000 North Korean military construction workers to demine and reconstruct Kursk Oblast. ISW previously observed reports that North Korean military personnel and "technical advisers" were operating in occupied Donetsk Oblast, including near occupied Donetsk City and Mariupol.[14] Russia may deploy North Korean sappers and engineers to occupied Ukraine in engineering and support roles in the future.

The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) announced sanctions packages against Russia on June 16 and 17.[15] The UK sanctioned additional parts of Russia’s financial, military-industrial, and energy sectors, including Russia’s shadow fleet and its operating companies.[16] The UK also sanctioned two UK residents accused of helping to supply Russia with over $120 million worth of electronics. The EU Council renewed its sanctions package that targets the import of products from occupied Crimea into the EU and the export of goods and technology to transport, telecommunications, energy, oil, gas, and mineral companies in Crimea.[17]

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted the third largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion on the night of June 16 to 17.
• The June 16-17 strike series heavily targeted Kyiv City and hit residential areas in the capital, as Russian officials and milbloggers called on Russia to intensify its strikes against Ukraine.
• Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu announced that North Korea would send 6,000 sappers and military engineers to help with reconstruction efforts in Kursk Oblast.
• The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) announced sanctions packages against Russia on June 16 and 17.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. 

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
• Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast on June 17 but did not advance.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in unspecified areas of Kursk Oblast on June 16 and 17.[18] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the direction of Tetkino (southwest of Glushkovo), Glushkovo, and Novyi Put (east of Tetkino).[19]

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported ground activity in northwesternmost Belgorod Oblast on June 17.

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Sumy Oblast on June 17 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on June 17 that Russian forces advanced east of Yunakivka and southwest of Oleksandriya (both northeast of Sumy City).[20]

Russian forces attacked in northern Sumy Oblast, including in Yunakivka, toward Sadky, and near Oleksandriya and Miropillya (all northeast of Sumy City).[21]

Order of Battle: Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on June 16 that elements of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th AC, LMD), and 18th Motorized Rifle Division (11th AC, LMD) are operating in northern Sumy Oblast and sustaining heavy losses.[22] Elements of the "Anvar" Spetsnaz Detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 "Anvar" volunteer detachment) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Shostkynskyi Raion (northwest of Sumy City).[23] Elements of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Khotin (north of Sumy City).[24]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported ground activity in northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 17.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on June 17 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Kupyansk near Holubivka and Dvorichna and toward Dovhenke; northeast of Kupyansk near Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, and Synkivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; and southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka on June 16 and 17.[25]

A staff officer of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Kupyansk direction reported on June 17 that Russian forces increased the number of strikes against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the last week and that Russian forces are still attempting to cross the Oskil River.[26] The officer reported that Russian forces are attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian positions and accumulate in small infantry groups of poorly trained soldiers and then strike the seams between Ukrainian positions.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on June 17 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on June 17 that Russian forces advanced southwest of Zahryzove and northwest of Lozova (both northeast of Borova).[27]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Zahryzove and Kruhlyakivka, east of Borova near Kopanky and Nadiya, and southeast of Borova near Hrekivka and toward Olhivka on June 16 and 17.[28]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on June 17, but did not make confirmed advances

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Torske (east of Lyman).[29]

Russian forces attacked north of Lyman near Ridkodub, Karpivka, and Lypove and toward Shandryholove, Hlushchenkove, and Novyi Myr; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi and Novomykhailivka; and east of Lyman near Torske and the Serebryanske forest area on June 16 and 17.[30] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Zelena Dolyna (north of Lyman) and Myrne (northeast of Lyman).[31]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported on June 17 that a significant number of Russian forces are surrendering as prisoners of war (POWs) because Russian commanders are abandoning the soldiers without food and water.[32] The spokesperson reported that some of the POWs are migrant workers from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Tajikistan who signed contracts with the Russian MoD in order to gain Russian citizenship.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on June 17 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northeastern Serebryanka (northeast of Siversk).[33]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Ivano-Darivka (southeast of Siversk).[34]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka and Serebryanka, east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, and southeast of Siversk near Ivano-Darivka on June 16 and 17.[35]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on June 17 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced toward Bila Hora (south of Chasiv Yar).[36] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces had advanced in southern Chasiv Yar.[37]

Russian forces attacked in and near Chasiv Yar itself; northeast of Chasiv Yar near Orikhovo-Vasylivka; southeast of Chasiv Yar near Kurdyumivka; and south of Chasiv Yar near Stupochky and toward Bila Hora and Predtechyne on June 16 and 17.[38]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division, including its 215th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, are reportedly operating in the Chasiv Yar direction.[39] Drone operators of the "Berkut" Group of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Vasyutynske (northwest of Chasiv Yar).[40]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on June 17 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north, east, and southeast of Dyliivka (north of Toretsk).[41]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced southeast of Oleksandro-Kalynove (northwest of Toretsk) and north and northeast of Romanivka (west of Toretsk).[42]

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Toretsk itself; north of Toretsk near Dyliivka; northwest of Toretsk near Yablunivka, Rusyn Yar, Popiv Yar, Poltavka, and Oleksandro-Kalynove and toward Nelipivka; and west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka on June 16 and 17.[43] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Toretsk and Nelipivka.[44]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Toretsk.[45] Elements of the 68th Tank Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division) are reportedly operating near Novospaske (west of Toretsk).[46] Drone operators of the 56th Separate Spetsnaz Battalion (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], SMD) are reportedly operating near Dachne (north of Toretsk).[47]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on June 15 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Shevchenko Pershe (northeast of Pokrovsk).[48]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced southwest of Shevchenko Pershe, northeast of Koptieve, southwest of Malynivka (both northeast of Pokrovsk), and in central Udachne (southwest of Pokrovsk).[49]

Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Pokrovsk near Myrne, Malynivka, and Shevchenko Pershe; east of Pokrovsk near Myrolyubivka and Promin and toward Novoekonomichne; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk near Shevchenko; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Kotlyne, and Udachne on June 16 and 17.[50]

The chief sergeant of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian forces are trying to distract Ukrainian forces with assaults consisting of one-to-two servicemembers and sometimes motorcycles while a larger group of Russian forces approaches the Ukrainians’ flank.[51] The commander of an artillery reconnaissance detachment operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian forces near Malynivka are trying to disrupt Ukrainian logistics with strikes and are attacking nonstop, including with motorcycles and buggies.[52] The commander stated that Russian forces in the area are poorly trained and only joined the Russian military three to four weeks before arriving at the front. The commander stated that soldiers arrive from Russia to the Russian rear in occupied Ukraine two weeks after they join the Russian military, undergo training in occupied Ukraine for one week, then go to the front.

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, Eastern Military District [EMD]) and "Vega" Spetsnaz Detachment (24th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating in the Pokrovsk direction.[53] Drone operators of the "Rubikon" Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Mayak (northeast of Pokrovsk).[54]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on June 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northeastern Komar (south of Novopavlivka).[55]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced northwest of Horikhove, north of Komar, and west of Fedorivka and Vesele (all southeast of Novopavlivka).[56] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Oleksiivka (southeast of Novopavlivka).[57]

Russian forces conducted offensive operations toward Novopavlivka itself; northeast of Novopavlivka near Novoserhiivka, Muravka, and Novomykolaivka; east of Novopavlivka near Kotlyarivka; southeast of Novopavlivka near Horikhove, Novoukrainka, Bahatyr, Odradne, Oleksiivka, and Andriivka; and south of Novopavlivka toward Zaporizhzhia and Myrne on June 16 and 17.[58]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Novopavlivka direction stated that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Bahatyr and that Russian forces have not seized the settlement.[59] The spokesperson stated that Russian forces are conducting four to six glide bomb strikes against Bahatyr each day to destroy the settlement and disrupt Ukrainian logistics. The spokesperson stated that Russian forces are attacking in groups of one to two personnel and with motorcycles at different times of the day.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian 80th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, 41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) recently seized Horikhove after a motorcycle group distracted Ukrainian drone operators, allowing the main Russian assault groups to traverse a large, open area and enter the settlement.[60]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the "Rubikon" Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies and elements of the 200th Artillery Brigade (29th CAA, EMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Yalta (south of Novopavlivka).[61] Elements of the 5th Tank Brigade (36th CAA, EMD) are reportedly operating in Fedorivka (south of Novopavlivka).[62]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on June 17 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Shevchenko (northwest of Velyka Novosilka).[63]

Russian forces conducted offensive operations northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Vilne Pole, Shevchenko, and Burlatske; west of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka; and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Zelene Pole and Novopil on June 16 and 17.[64]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (GRU) are reportedly operating in the Vremivka (Velyka Novosilka) direction.[65]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City) 

Russian forces continued assaults in the Hulyaipole direction on June 17 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Malynivka (east of Hulyaipole).[66]

Russian forces attacked east of Hulyaipole near Malynivka on June 16 and 17.[67]

Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported on June 17 that Russian forces recently resumed offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction and are increasing the frequency of airstrikes against frontline settlements in this direction.[68]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on June 17 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Robotyne (south of Orikhiv) and into Mala Tokmachka (southeast of Orikhiv).[69]

Russian forces attacked southwest of Orikhiv near Nesteryanka, Stepove, Shcherbaky, and Mali Shcherbaky on June 16 and 17.[70]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[71]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kherson direction on June 16 and 17 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near the Antonivsky Bridge and attempted to land forces on unspecified islands in Kherson Oblast on June 16 and 17.[72] Russian sources claimed on June 17 claimed on June 17 that elements of the Russian 80th Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land near the Tendrivska Spit in Kherson Oblast.[73]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 104th Air Assault (VDV) Division are reportedly operating in the Kherson direction.[74]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

See topline text for reports of Russian strikes against Ukraine.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks) 

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.