The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa

Key Points

• Salafi-jihadi groups linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State are spreading and strengthening in Africa. These groups will grow more lethal over time as they develop military and nonmilitary capabilities and gain access to resources and opportunities.
• African Salafi-jihadi groups will drive an increased transnational terror threat as they mature. Local groups sustain transnational jihadist attack networks and may pivot to regional or global attack campaigns over time.
• US counterterrorism policies are reactive and focus on eliminating external attack nodes over removing the regional support base. Policymakers should reform US foreign assistance and expand intelligence coverage to prioritize conflict prevention and resolution. A long-term solution requires reducing the overall level of capability, resourcing, and opportunity available to the Salafi-jihadi movement. 

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Introduction

Salafi-jihadi groups linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State are spreading and strengthening in Africa. This phenomenon has immediately and severely affected thousands of Africans subjected to violence. But not only Africans have a stake in beating back this jihadist expansion. The growing Salafi-jihadi base in Africa supports a global movement waging war on the US and many of its allies.

African groups may become more direct participants in global jihad as they develop capabilities that they can use overseas. Every Salafi-jihadi group that has attacked transnationally began with a local focus; past examples show that groups can rapidly pivot to transnational attack plotting when circumstances shift. As African Salafi-jihadi groups continue to develop more advanced military and nonmilitary capabilities, they stand to provide even greater benefits to the global Salafi-jihadi movement in terms of recruits, money, propaganda, innovation, leadership, and safe havens.

This report considers the capabilities, resources, and opportunities that can be used to assess the relative strength of a Salafi-jihadi group in terms of its sophistication, effectiveness, and resilience. This framework aims to facilitate comparing groups at different stages of development, tracking changes in their capacity over time.

The analysis in this report points to a necessary rethink in US policy to counter the Salafi-jihadi movement. The United States’ counterterrorism policy is missing the opening to stop Salafi-jihadi insurgencies from forming and becoming entrenched. Policymakers should reform US foreign assistance and expand intelligence coverage to prioritize conflict prevention and resolution. A long-term solution requires reducing the overall level of capability, resourcing, and opportunity available to the Salafi-jihadi movement.

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