Ethiopia War Security Review

Contributor: Alexander Brown

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 9 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 13 at 12:00 P.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. Federal forces advanced all the way to the Eritrean border at Zalambessa after advancing north from Adigrat since October 10, as Tigrayan and alleged Eritrean forces retreated.
• Central Axis. Federal forces captured Adwa on October 11 after Tigrayan rebel forces withdrew toward the Ethiopian border town Rama. Federal forces have also advanced into the interior of rural central Tigray from both the Adigrat and Adwa axes.
• Northwestern Axis. Ethiopian federal forces captured Axum on October 12 after advancing from Shire along the B30 highway.
• Western Axis. Federal forces have advanced toward Sheraro in northwestern Tigray, forcing Tigrayan rebel and alleged Eritrean forces to retreat toward Badme, Eritrea.
• Southern Axis. Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)–affiliated media claimed that the TPLF forces conducted two ambushes targeting Ethiopian federal forces near the Amhara border in the Kola Tembien Mountains.
• Eastern Axis. Isolated and unverified reports claimed that the Ethiopian military has launched a military buildup in Afar region along the A1 highway to Assab. Isolated reports claimed that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces clashed near the border, although some aspects of these claims have already been disproven.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. A high-level federal delegation visited Mekele and Adigrat, as federal officials began to articulate plans to reestablish federal political control in Tigray and facilitate a return to normalcy. Imprisoned high-ranking former TPLF leaders escaped from TPLF custody and fled to federally controlled Mekele on October 12.
• Regional Activity. Eritrea wrote a letter to the UN Security Council (UNSC) on October 10 accusing Ethiopia of effectively declaring war and calling for deterrent sanctions on Ethiopia in response to Ethiopia’s earlier letter to the UNSC on October 8.

Figure 1. ENDF Continues Advances in Tigray

Northern Axis: Mekele-Adigrat-Zalambessa-Adwa

Federal forces have advanced all the way to the Eritrean border at Zalambessa after advancing north from Adigrat since October 10, as Tigrayan and alleged Eritrean forces retreated. The Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) and allied Tigray Peace Force (TPF) entered Adigrat without facing any resistance on the night of October 9 into 10.[i] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and Deutsche Welle (DW) Amharic reported that the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) military wing—and rumored Eritrean forces had preemptively withdrawn from the town to defensive positions to the north around Cherseber, Debre Damo, Fatsi, Fiya Keshi, and Sebeya, all of which are located in Tigray’s Eastern Zone between Adigrat and Zalambessa.[ii] The ENDF launched several drone strikes targeting suspected TDF-Eritrean forces between and in Adigrat and Zalambessa over the last week.[iii]

Federal forces advanced 23 miles north to Zalambessa from Adigrat between October 11 and 12 without encountering substantial resistance. DW Amharic cited locals who claimed that Eritrean forces withdrew from positions in Fatsi on October 11, and ACLED recorded that Eritrean forces withdrew to Eritrea through Zalambessa on October 12.[iv] The ENDF shelled suspected TDF-Eritrean defensive positions in Fatsi for an hour on October 12 before advancing and has since deployed heavy weaponry and tanks from Adigrat in the direction of Zalambessa on October 13, according to ACLED.[v] Open-source analyst Ethiopia Conflict Map reported on October 13 that Eritrean forces have now “entrenched” themselves north of Zalambessa.[vi]

Central Axis: Mekele-Abiy Addi-Adwa-Rama

Federal forces captured Adwa on October 11 after TDF forces withdrew toward the Ethiopian border town Rama. ENDF-TPF forces captured Abiy Addi on October 8 and then advanced along the C23 highway to capture Werkamba by October 10.[vii] Federal forces then rapidly advanced nearly 50 miles through May Kental and Adi Salem to capture Adwa on October 11.[viii] TDF forces withdrew from Adwa between October 10 and 11 nearly 23 miles north to the border town Rama.[ix] Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 10 that some TDF forces fled across the border and that Eritrean forces had dug trenches north of the town in Eritrean territory.[x]

Federal forces have also advanced into the interior of rural central Tigray from both the Adigrat and Adwa axes. The ENDF captured Enticho, Feres May, Idaga Ardi, and Nebelet on October 11.[xi] Enticho is the Afherom district capital and lies on the A2 between Adigrat, 20 miles to the east, and Adwa, 20 miles to the west. Pro-Ethiopian federal government sources claimed on October 12 that five high-ranking TDF commanders surrendered to TPF forces in the Enticho area, including Deputy Army Commander Col. Berhane Gebreananya, Logistics Commander Col. Gebremariam Teklu, Col. Welday Mewcha, Col. Mehari Yifter, and Col. Gebrehawaria Desta.[xii] ACLED had previously reported that TPLF leadership had relocated to the Aferhom district after they fled Mekele in early October. The other three captured villages lie in rural areas between the A2 and C23, where Ethiopia Conflict Mapper reported on October 12 that ENDF forces trapped between Adwa and Adigrat had retreated into.[xiii]

Northwestern Axis: Adi Arkay-Shire-Axum

Ethiopian federal forces captured Axum on October 12 after advancing from Shire along the B30 highway. ENDF-TPF forces captured Shire on October 8 and began advancing east on October 9. Federal forces had advanced 20 miles to Selekleka by October 10 and a further 10 miles to Wkro by October 11 before covering the final 10 miles to Axum by October 12.[xiv]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Sheraro-Shire

Federal forces advanced toward Sheraro from Shire in northwestern Tigray, forcing TDF and alleged Eritrean forces to retreat toward Badme, Eritrea. ENDF forces captured Adi Dairo and Adi Nebried, which are nearly 20 and 25 miles northwest of Shire, on October 11.[xv] ENDF forces then advanced another 16 miles to Adi Hageray—17 miles from Sheraro—on October 12.[xvi] The New Humanitarian and DW Amharic cited locals who claimed that Eritrean forces were active on the 60-mile stretch of road between Shire and Sheraro in reporting from October 10 and 12.[xvii] DW Amharic and ACLED reported on October 12 that Eritrean forces withdrew from these areas, including Adi Hageray, Adi Awala, Shimelba, and Ziban Gedena, with DW Amharic citing locals who said that Eritrean forces were still present around Badme and Sheraro.[xviii] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 13 that Eritrean forces had entrenched themselves around Badme.[xix]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

TPLF-affiliated media claimed that the TDF conducted two ambushes targeting ENDF forces near the Amhara border in the Kola Tembien Mountains on October 12. Tigray TV claimed the ambushes were roughly 10 miles apart near Yechila, Central Tigray zone, and Finarwa, Southern Tigray zone.[xx] The villages are between 35 and 40 miles southeast of Mekele in rural areas the ENDF has not yet captured from TDF forces.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Isolated and unverified reports claimed that the ENDF has launched a military buildup in Afar region along the A1 highway to Assab. DW Amharic and an open-source conflict analyst on X claimed on October 12 that the ENDF had deployed a large number of troops and heavy weaponry in Bure, Bododa, and Elidar. The villages are two, 13, and 56 miles from the Eritrean border, respectively, along the A1.[xxi]

Isolated reports claimed that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces clashed near the border, although some aspects of these claims have already been disproven. Journalist Sajid Nadeem’s Ethiopia Desk media outlet reported that EDF and ENDF forces clashed near Bure on October 11, citing locals who heard gunfire.[xxii] Another open-source conflict analyst on X and the Belgian think tank EEPA separately noted reported shelling and fighting in the area.[xxiii] DW Amharic, independent outlet UMD Media, and researcher Mohamed Khier Omer cited locals on October 12 who denied earlier unverified reports from The Ethiopian Desk and UMD media that that Ethiopian mechanized units had crossed the border and advanced 10 miles to seize Debay Sema, Eritrea.[xxiv] Locals who spoke with UMD Media said that ENDF mechanized forces are “not even close” to Bure, but that they were still concerned over a possible military confrontation.[xxv]

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Nothing significant to report.

Major Domestic Political Developments

Prime Ministerial Adviser Getachew Reda said that the federal government would directly rule Tigray via a command post for a six-month period prior to regional elections. Getachew said during an interview with a Tigrayan outlet on October 11 that the six-month period will aim to create administrative and security conditions to facilitate rehabilitation and recovery in the region, and that the ENDF and TPF will be the primary security sources and allow humanitarian aid distribution in areas under federal control.[xxvi] Reda was formerly TPLF spokesperson and Tigray Interim Administration head and is linked to the TPF.[xxvii]

A high-level federal delegation visited Mekele and Adigrat on October 11. Ethiopian intelligence chief Redwan Hussein, Getachew Reda, Ethiopian nuclear energy commissioner Dr. Abraham Belay, and TPF commander Brig. Gen. Gebregziabher Beyene led the delegation.[xxviii] The officials talked to local residents and officials and emphasized the widespread desire for peace among Tigrayans and federal forces.[xxix]

Former TIA head Gen. Tadesse Werede and other imprisoned TPLF leaders escaped from TDF custody around Rama and fled to federally controlled Mekele on October 12. The other leaders included Colonel Tewolde Gebrettonsa, Colonel Alemseged Gebreegzi, and Ato Isaias Tadesse.[xxx] Tewolde told BBC Tigrinya that the TDF had relocated himself and other hostages to Adwa and Axum and then Rama, with plans to relocate them to Eritrea, as the TDF retreated across Tigray throughout early October.[xxxi] Tewolde said that their detention was politically motivated due to the detainees voicing opposition to the TPLF’s move to reject the federal government’s extension of Tadesse’s term as TIA head in May 2026 and restoring the pre-Tigray war TPLF government.[xxxii]

Regional Activity

Eritrea wrote a letter to the UN Security Council (UNSC) on October 10 accusing Ethiopia of effectively declaring war and calling for deterrent sanctions on Ethiopia in response to Ethiopia’s earlier letter to the UNSC on October 8. The letter called Ethiopia’s accusations that Eritrea had invaded and subsequent Ethiopian defensive measures tantamount to a declaration of war.[xxxiii] Eritrea asked the UNSC to condemn Ethiopia’s actions and  “take the requisite deterrent measures against it in accordance with Chapter VII of the UN Charter.”[xxxiv] Chapter VII allows for measures ranging from ​sanctions to military action.\

[i] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2108634878157914219?s=20; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-forces-regain-control-border-city-after-reported-eritrean-incursion-2026-10-10; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/ethiopia-eritrea-ramp-up-rhetoric-are-they-inching-towards-war

[ii] https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://p.dw.com/p/5O76o

[iii] https://p.dw.com/p/5OA2q; https://x.com/xniser/status/2108962957103358111?s=20; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/08/ethiopia-drone-attack-against-eritrean-troops-in-tigray

[iv] https://p.dw.com/p/5OA2q; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive

[v] https://www.umdmedia dot com/article/afar-sources-dismissed-reports-of-endf-advance-into-eritrea-shelling-and-troop-movements-reported-near-adigrat-today; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive

[vi] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109936959590105114?s=20

[vii] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2108845479131767127?s=20

[viii] https://p.dw.com/p/5OBPn; https://www.aljazeera dot com/news/2026/10/12/ethiopian-troops-capture-adwa-without-a-fight-witnesses-say; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109251618956853348?s=20; https://x.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/2109310144613904436?s=20

[ix] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109280476271616218?s=20; https://p.dw.com/p/5OBPn; https://www.aljazeera dot com/news/2026/10/12/ethiopian-troops-capture-adwa-without-a-fight-witnesses-say; https://ethiopiandesk.com/ethiopian-military-enters-adwa-as-tdf-retreats; https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BxPXHoay2/

[x] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2108925408536072464?s=20; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109936959590105114?s=20; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109960390738124994?s=20

[xi] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109214105466818698?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109217441842929861?s=20; https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2108944152025325941?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109217441842929861?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109406974043689470?s=20; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2109659829383881144?s=20: https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109165678745849883?s=20

[xii] https://www.eepa.be//wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Situation-Report-EEPA-Horn-No.-769-12-October-2026.pdf; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2109578211046891872?s=20

[xiii] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109621152851091876?s=20

[xiv] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2108877282878382132?s=20; https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109267303955079327?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109217441842929861?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109406974043689470?s=20; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2109659829383881144?s=20: https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109165678745849883?s=20; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109251618956853348?s=20; https://x.com/zarGEOINT/status/2109613477341843558?s=20

[xv] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109214105466818698?s=20; https://www.eepa.be//wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Situation-Report-EEPA-Horn-No.-769-12-October-2026.pdf; https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109518729566724184?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109217441842929861?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109406974043689470?s=20; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2109659829383881144?s=20: https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109165678745849883?s=20

[xvi] https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive

[xvii] https://p.dw.com/p/5O76o; https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2026/10/12/eritrean-incursions-raise-fears-wider-regional-war-ethiopia

[xviii] https://p.dw.com/p/5OA2q

[xix] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109936959590105114?s=20

[xx] https://x.com/Yonigussie/status/2109741698301702634?s=20; https://www.facebook.com/tigrai.tv1/posts/pfbid02uU1TQPRzGKCpRuude57fPy7ZR5WURkZL7KgY4X5Tr93QmKwvyy5SUuKNY7siJnm2l?__cft__[0]=AZiVYiCENZB2aH0d4GepIQZ_7YgSObnxUizNqLwejLQYox8j_vZOBeqxYQhqb_DMkL_AaYsfOdpvdYKL5TeNX1rtaCJ8lfQWYJIkBo0vV43mdiMHCGEtC8n8TR76dGbUGQEswfVTylnygG6ERJR6li_1hnbiV_Jz&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

[xxi] https://p.dw.com/p/5OA4g; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2109944841224241212?s=20

[xxii] https://ethiopiandesk dot com/ethiopia-eritrea-exchange-gunfire-around-bure

[xxiii] https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2109595860937908513?s=20; https://www.eepa.be//wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Situation-Report-EEPA-Horn-No.-769-12-October-2026.pdf

[xxiv] https://www.umdmedia dot com/article/afar-sources-dismissed-reports-of-endf-advance-into-eritrea-shelling-and-troop-movements-reported-near-adigrat-today; https://p.dw.com/p/5OA4g; https://x.com/mkheirom/status/2109609113554399477?s=20; https://www.umdmedia dot com/article/reports-ethiopian-forces-cross-into-eritrea-take-control-of-strategic-locality-near-assab-following-mechanized-fighting; https://ethiopiandesk dot com/rumors-of-endf-seizing-deba-sima-in-eritrea/;

[xxv] https://www.umdmedia dot com/article/afar-sources-dismissed-reports-of-endf-advance-into-eritrea-shelling-and-troop-movements-reported-near-adigrat-today

[xxvi] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/c687z11xyje8o; https://www.bbc.com/tigrinya/articles/cm93zkkg4wg1o

[xxvii] https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/05/14/addis-ababa-backs-creation-of-armed-tigrayan-opposition-in-afar-region,110449004-gra

[xxviii] https://x.com/DanielsonKassa1/status/2109269829244928156?s=20; https://wegahtafacts.substack.com/p/senior-ethiopian-government-officials; https://x.com/mkheirom/status/2109372384168030347?s=20; https://x.com/DanielsonKassa1/status/2109281070084743374?s=20

[xxix] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/ck0j0gy185lzo; https://www.facebook.com/reel/1148023157555219

[xxx] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/cwj0lze7lp23o; https://x.com/UMDMedia_/status/2109640375099064389; https://x.com/Jawar_Mohammed/status/2109637594459918838?s=20; https://x.com/getachew_temare/status/2109660438824669305?s=20; https://x.com/UMDMedia_/status/2109890986386346094;

[xxxi] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/cwj0lze7lp23o

[xxxii] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/cwj0lze7lp23o

[xxxiii] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-forces-regain-control-border-city-after-reported-eritrean-incursion-2026-10-10

[xxxiv] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-forces-regain-control-border-city-after-reported-eritrean-incursion-2026-10-10