Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from September 29, 2026, at 1:00 P.M. EST to October 2, 2026, at 11:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaway: Ethiopian federal forces have almost completely reversed Afar and Tigrayan rebel gains in the Afar region. Ethiopian federal forces have continued advancing on main roads toward Mekele. Rebels have launched a deep penetration drone strike campaign targeting key federal facilities in and around Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has reportedly taken pre-emptive protective measures amid the federal advance, but it has publicly reaffirmed its intention to continue fighting. Ethiopia’s diplomatic relations with Eritrea and Egypt have deteriorated since the war broke out. Ethiopia reportedly plans to redeploy of a contingent of troops from Somalia to Ethiopia.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Ethiopian federal forces have almost completely reversed Afar and Tigrayan rebel gains in the Afar region. The Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF/Ugugumo) and Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF’s) military wing, had captured Abala—a district capital approximately 30 miles east of Mekele, the Tigray regional capital—on September 22.[1] The ARDUF and TDF then continued advancing to take Erebti—a district capital 75 miles east of Mekele—from federally backed forces, including the Tigray Peace Force (TPF), on September 27.[2] Abala and Erebti lie on a secondary highway that connects to the A1 highway—also known as the Ethio-Djibouti highway—near Semera, the Afar regional capital.[3] The Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) and TPF launched counterattacks on the highway on October 1, reportedly retaking both Abala and Erebti.[4] The TPF claimed on October 2 to have continued advancing west into the Tigray region, capturing Mizilat, which is approximately 15 miles southeast of Mekele.[5] The Critical Threats Project (CTP) was unable to verify the TPF’s claim, however. Multiple open-source mappers and pro-rebel sources separately reported that rebel forces captured Dallol district, which is 115 miles northeast of Mekele on the Eritrean and Tigray borders, on September 29.[6]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Ethiopian federal forces have continued advancing on main roads toward Mekele. The ENDF advanced over 20 miles over mountainous terrain on the A2 highway from September 28 to October 2, roughly a quarter of the distance between Alamata and Mekele. The open-source mapper The Ethiopian Conflict Map indicated on September 30 that the ENDF redeployed forces from an alternative line of advance to Mekele via a secondary road from Sekota, which is approximately 100 miles southwest of Mekele, to its main effort on the A2.[7] Ethiopian federal forces moved north from Alamata to capture Korem, which is 100 miles south of Mekele, on September 30.[8] The ENDF has since pushed further along the A2 between Korem and Maychew, which is approximately 75 miles south of Mekele, and clashed with the TDF multiple times.[9] Conflict reporter Sajid Nadeem reported that the ENDF took Hugumbirda—a village 10 miles south of Maychew—on October 1, although CTP was unable to verify the claim.[10] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that the TDF had resisted ENDF advances toward Maychew on October 1 and October 2 and that the fighting included artillery and mechanized units.[11] Reports from Nadeem and The Ethiopian Conflict Map suggest that the TDF tactically withdrew from some positions between Alamata and Maychew, presumably to fortify other positions surrounding the A2 and Mekele.[12]

Ethiopian federal forces have also moved to consolidate control of a secondary road linked to the A2 in a flanking or bypass maneuver.[13] Ethiopian federal forces reportedly advanced from Chercher—approximately 30 miles southeast of Maychew—on September 30 to capture Mekhoni, which is approximately 10 miles east of Maychew.[14] A pro-Fano source reported that the fighting may have involved artillery, drones, and mechanized units, with the TDF sustaining losses and withdrawing from its positions.[15] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that the TDF resisted further ENDF advances north from Mekoni on October 1.[16]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

Nothing significant to report.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Rebels have launched a deep penetration drone strike campaign targeting key federal facilities in and around Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. The campaign began when rebels reportedly struck numerous air facilities across Ethiopia on September 27, including the Semera and Kombolucha airports, the latter of which is near Dessie in the Amhara region.[17] The strikes also reportedly targeted the Harar Meda Air Base in Bishoftu airport in the Oromia region, which is the Ethiopian Air Force headquarters approximately 35 miles southeast of Addis Ababa.[18] Suspected drone strikes then reportedly targeted multiple locations in Addis Ababa, including the ENDF headquarters, on the night of September 30 to October 1.[19] An anonymous security source told the Egyptian outlet Mada Masr that Ethiopian air defenses had downed suicide drones attempting to target the ENDF headquarters and possibly the 24th Infantry Division headquarters in the Kirkos district.[20] The Ethiopian National Intelligence and Security Service subsequently suspended drone flights around Addis Ababa.[21] A rebel-linked source told Reuters that the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival (Alliance for Survival) had conducted the strikes.[22] Open-source analyst Rich Tedd reported that there had been GPS interference “consistent with deliberate jamming” around Addis Ababa from September 27 to September 30.[23]

Major Political Developments

The TPLF has reportedly taken pre-emptive protective measures amid the federal advance, but it has publicly reaffirmed its intention to continue fighting. Al Jazeera reported on October 1 that some TPLF leaders had relocated from Mekele.[24] The Economist journalist Tom Gardner and Oromo activist Jawar Mohammed separately reported that the TPLF also intends to relocate detained former Tigrayan officials from Mekele, including former TDF and Tigray Interim Administration head Tadesse Worede.[25] Tadesse did not support the TPLF’s reinstatement of the pre-Tigray war legislative council in May 2026, and the TPLF detained him shortly after the war broke out.[26] TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael appeared on TPLF-aligned Tigrai Television on October 1 to reaffirm the TPLF’s intention to continue fighting, however.[27] Debretsion said that the TDF had conducted “strategic” withdrawals and was shifting toward “mobile” fighting to achieve victory.[28]

Regional Involvement

Ethiopia’s diplomatic relations with Eritrea and Egypt have deteriorated since the war broke out. Ethiopia’s relations with Eritrea have collapsed following allegations of Eritrean involvement in the Alliance for Survival’s offensive. Unverified reports from pro-Ethiopian federal government sources have claimed that Eritrean forces are fighting in Afar.[29] ENDF Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula also stated on September 25 that Eritrea was financially supporting the TPLF and facilitating support from external actors to the rebel group.[30] The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on October 1 that it was closing the Ethiopian embassy in Eritrea and expelling 10 Eritrean diplomats from Ethiopia.[31] The ministry stated that the action was “in response to Eritrea’s direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence against Ethiopia.”[32] Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.[33] The Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned alleged Ethiopian support for Eritrean opposition groups and Ethiopia’s desire for sea access via Eritrean ports, calling them “a publicly pronounced declaration of war.”[34]

Diplomatic relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have also regressed. Birhanu claimed in his September 25 statement that Egypt was enabling the rebel offensive.[35] Ethiopia ordered the expulsion of an Egyptian diplomat, reportedly Ahmed Moharam Ahmed Soliman, from Ethiopia on October 1.[36] Egypt responded by ordering the expulsion of an Ethiopian diplomat, reportedly Egazi Emelo Borougi, from Egypt.[37]

Ethiopia reportedly plans to redeploy a contingent of troops from Somalia to Ethiopia. Bloomberg reported on September 30 that Ethiopia plans to withdraw 3,000 troops from Somalia who were providing counterterrorism support against al Shabaab.[38] Ethiopia previously withdrew an ENDF contingent from Somalia during the first Tigray war and redeployed the troops to Tigray.[39] The troops, in the previous instance, were in Somalia on a bilateral basis separate from the African Union counterterrorism mission, which includes Ethiopian troops.[40]