Ethiopia War Security Review

An in-depth review of activity related to the war in Ethiopia every week. Map shapefiles are available by request via email at [email protected].

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 16 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 20 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaway:

Northern Axis. Ethiopian federal forces are reportedly redeploying southward from towns along the Eritrean border toward the Tigray city belt, including Adwa and Adigrat.
Central Axis. Tigrayan rebel forces are continuing to attack federal supply lines to central Tigray, although Ethiopian federal forces have simultaneously increased pressure on Tigrayan rebel support zones in the mountainous interior of central Tigray with ground attacks and sustained air and drone strikes.
Other Rebel Kinetic Activity. Ethiopian rebels in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions reportedly carried out their first notable attacks against Ethiopian federal forces since joining the Alliance for Survival rebel coalition.
Major Domestic Political Developments. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front warned the Ethiopian federal government against using airports for military purposes and threatened to shoot down Ethiopian Airlines planes carrying suspected military equipment and personnel.
Regional and International Activity. Top Russian and US officials separately underscored their desire to mediate and deescalate tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and urged both neighbors to show restraint.

Figure 1. ENDF and TDF Battle for the Tigray Interior

Source: Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo; Alexander Brown and Ziv Zellars.

Northern Axis: Mekele-Adigrat-Adwa

Ethiopian federal forces are reportedly redeploying southward from towns along the Eritrean border toward the Tigray city belt, including Adwa and Adigrat. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and pro-Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) sources reported on October 17 and 19, respectively, that the Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Forces, ENDF) has withdrawn south from several areas near the Eritrean border, including Zalambessa, 24 miles north of Adigrat, and Rama, 23 miles north of Adwa.[i] There has been no reported fighting in the towns and it is unclear if TDF forces have since reentered these areas. Independent analyst and reporter Sajid Nadeem reported on October 16 that ENDF military convoys coming from the direction of Koneba, Afar region entered Tigray traveling toward Atsbi, which is 10 miles east of the A2 and 30 to 35 miles southeast and northeast from Adirgrat and Mekele, respectively.[ii]

Ethiopian outlet Wazema Radio reported on October 16 that Eritrean troops are working directly alongside the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the TPLF’s military wing—to dig trenches in the border area. Open-source analyst The Ethiopian Conflict Map separately reported on October 20 that Eritrean forces were digging trenches south of Gundet, which is 12 miles north of Rama.[iii] Agence France-Presse cited locals who claimed that Eritrean soldiers remained stationed in some Ethiopian border areas in an October 18 report.[iv]

Central Axis: Sekota-Yechila-Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum-Rama

The TDF is continuing to attack ENDF supply lines to central Tigray. Pro-TPLF media claimed that TDF troops ambushed and destroyed an ENDF convoy traveling towards Samre from Mekele in the vicinity of Dengolat, 19 miles southwest of Mekele, on October 16.[v] Another pro-TPLF source and several others reported that the TDF was contesting Hagare Selam, 33 miles northwest of Mekele along the C23 Mekele-Adwa highway, as of October 18, and that ENDF drone strikes were reported south of the town on the same day.[vi] Ethiopia War Map recorded that the TDF had reentered to Abergele, which is roughly 20 miles southwest of Samre on October 19, although federal forces were still contesting control of the town.[vii] The ENDF had captured the village in the opening week of its counteroffensive in late September as it advanced northeast toward Mekele along the Sekota-Mekele Road. CTP reported in the October 16 EWSR that the TDF had launched several counterattacks further north along the C23 and D23 roads leading to central Tigray between Abergele and Werkamba.[viii]

Ethiopian federal forces have simultaneously increased pressure on the TDF’s support zones in the mountainous interior of central Tigray with ground attacks and sustained air and drone strikes. The Ethiopian Conflict Map and ACLED reported fighting between the ENDF and TDF in Zana town, approximately 25 miles southeast of Shire, and the surrounding district between October 17 and 19.[ix] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that TDF retained control over Zana, as of October 18.[x] ACLED and Sajid Nadeem reported fighting between the ENDF and TDF occurred in Semema town, 52 miles south of Axum, on October 18, which included at least seven ENDF drone strikes targeting TDF vehicles.[xi] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and reported that the ENDF had shelled and launch drone strikes targeting areas north of the B30, including Chila and mountains areas west of Rama on October 17 and Simemma on October 18.[xii] ENDF forces also pushed further west from Adigrat and took Bizet and Inticho on October 20 following lengthy clashes.[xiii]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

Nothing significant to report.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Ethiopian rebels in the Benishangul Gumuz and Oromia regions reportedly carried out their first notable attacks against ENDF forces since joining the Alliance for Survival with the TPLF and Amhara National Fano Movement. Sajid Nadeem reported that Oromo Liberation Army forces attacked ENDF forces in Batu, East Shewa zone of the Oromia region between October 18 and 19, but that ENDF forces repelled the militants using drones.[xiv] The Gumuz People’s Democratic Movement reportedly claimed to attack ENDF forces in Dangur and Metekel.[xv] CTP cannot verify the claim, although Tsedale Lemma, the head of Ethiopian news outlet Addis Standard, said that attacks in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions were going underreported during an event at the Atlantic Council on October 16.[xvi]

Major Domestic Political Developments

The TPLF has warned the Ethiopian federal government against using airports for military purposes and threatened to shoot down Ethiopian Airlines planes carrying suspected military equipment and personnel. TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael accused the federal government of using Ethiopian Airlines to transport soldiers and supplies to Mekele airport in an October 16 statement.[xvii] Debretsion warned the government to stop using the airport and warned that “the airline itself would bear responsibility for any attack it might face.”[xviii] Prime Ministerial Advisor and former TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda condemned the remarks as a threat to commit terrorist attacks.[xix] Ethiopian Airlines had resumed flights to Mekele on October 11.[xx]

Regional and International Activity

Top Russian and US officials separately underscored their desire to mediate and deescalate tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and urged both neighbors to show restraint. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Russian newspaper Izvestia that Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions were a “concern,” and that the Russian government had urged restraint and dialogue.[xxi] Alimov also said that Russia willing to mediate between the two countries on the sidelines of the upcoming Russia-Africa summit, which will be on October 28 and 29 in Moscow.[xxii]

US officials also reiterated calls for restraint and mediation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that he was “worried” that Ethiopian and Eritrean troop buildups could cause a broader conflict during a press conference on October 17.[xxiii] Rubio noted that he had emphasized the importance of Ethiopia being “wise and measured” in its response to the TPLF and other rebel attacks to ensure there is no broader war during his October 14 phone call with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.[xxiv] Rubio explained that the United States had previously lifted sanctions on Eritrea in September with the hopes of establishing links that would better enable the United States to “serve the role of mediator and peacemaker” should tensions arise between Ethiopia and Eritrea.[xxv] US ambassador to Ethiopia Ervin Massinga stated that “conflict should never be the first option” in an interview with Ethiopian outlet The Reporter, published on October 19.[xxvi]