Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 2, 2026, at 11:00 A.M. EST to October 6, 2026, at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. Ethiopian federal forces took Mekele, the Tigray regional capital, and have since advanced north and increased airstrikes targeting other Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-held population centers.
• Southern Axis. The TDF withdrew west from positions along the A2 highway south of Mekele amid the federal advance on Mekele, but the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) has disrupted key federal supply lines into Tigray via the Amhara region. Federally backed Tigrayan and Amhara forces have clashed over disputed areas in southern Tigray since federal forces consolidated control of the area.
• Western Axis. The ENDF and TDF have clashed near the Tekeze River on key roads leading to Shire, the capital of Tigray’s Northwestern zone.
• Domestic Political Activity. A senior federal official said that the federal government plans to establish an interim regional government in Tigray and hold elections in the region.
• Regional Activity. CTP has been unable to confirm unverified claims that Eritrean troops have increased their presence in Tigray since the fall of Mekele. Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan jointly affirmed each other’s sovereignty and alignment on the governance of the Nile River and Red Sea amid heightened tensions on these issues with neighboring Ethiopia following a multilateral summit.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Mekele-Adigrat-Adwa

Ethiopian federal forces took Mekele, the Tigray regional capital, and have since advanced north and increased airstrikes targeting other Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-held population centers. The Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) and Tigray Peace Force (TPF)—a federally backed anti-TPLF Tigrayan armed group—advanced west from the Afar region, where they had previously reversed initial rebel gains, to capture Mekele on October 3.[i] Ethiopian federal forces first took the Mekele airport on Mekele’s outskirts before entering the city’s center.[ii] The ENDF and TPF did not face significant resistance from the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), the TPLF’s military wing, as the TPLF had pre-emptively withdrawn from Mekele.[iii] Civilians looted government facilities in Mekele amid the TPLF withdrawal.[iv] The TPLF claimed that it had withdrawn to prevent damage to Mekele and vowed to continue fighting.[v] Two open-source mappers claimed that the TPLF leadership has relocated to Adwa, which is 100 miles northwest of Mekele, although the Critical Threats Project (CTP) was unable to verify the claim.[vi] The Ethiopian federal government has restored telecommunications in Mekele since retaking the city, after the TPLF had previously cut them on September 25.[vii]

Ethiopian federal forces have advanced north since capturing Mekele. Two open source-mappers and conflict reporter Sajid Nadeem reported that the ENDF captured Agula and Wukro—approximately 20 and 30 north of Mekele, respectively—on October 4.[viii] Both towns are on the north-south A2 highway, which leads to Adigrat approximately 70 miles north of Mekele near the Eritrean border. The open-source mapper Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that the ENDF has since redeployed additional forces from Mekele, presumably to support further advances from the city.[ix]

The ENDF has supplemented its ground operations with airstrikes on TPLF-held population centers, reportedly including towns on the Eritrean border. The ENDF has reportedly conducted strikes on Adigrat, Adwa, Axum, Rama, and Irob, the latter two of which are on the Eritrean border, since October 3.[x] The Adwa strikes reportedly damaged multiple hotels.[xi] Reuters cited a humanitarian bulletin that reported the Adwa strikes killed nine people on the night of October 4 to October 5.[xii]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

The TDF withdrew west from positions along the A2 highway south of Mekele amid the federal advance on Mekele. The TPLF withdrawal from Mekele also included its positions on the 25-mile stretch of the A2 from Adi Gudom to Mekele on October 3.[xiii]  The ENDF then advanced north along the highway without resistance.[xiv]

The Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) has disrupted key federal supply lines into Tigray via the Amhara region. The AFNM captured Wurgessa, which is on the A2 highway approximately 30 miles south of Woldia and 40 miles north of Dessie, on October 3.[xv] The A2 is the main north-south highway connecting Mekele to Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. The AFNM has since attacked ENDF positions around Mekane Selam, which is approximately 110 miles west of Dessie, cutting the B21 highway.[xvi] Control of the town is contested, as various sources have published contradictory claims.[xvii] The B21 is a main east-west highway in Amhara, linking to the A2 and connecting Dessie to the Amhara regional capital Bahir Dar.

Federally backed Tigrayan and Amhara forces have clashed over disputed areas in southern Tigray since federal forces consolidated control of the area. The Ethiopian news outlet Addis Standard reported that tensions between the TPF and Raya Zeb militia rose as the ENDF and TPF advanced through southern Tigray in late September and early October.[xviii] The pro-Amhara ethnonationalist X account Amhara War Updates reported that fighting between the two factions broke out around Alamata—approximately 110 miles south of Mekele—on October 3, although a different pro-Amhara ethno-nationalist account claimed that the fighting began on October 1.[xix] Both accounts reported that the fighting began when the Ethiopian Federal Police and TPF sidelined Raya Zeb after taking capturing the area from the TDF.[xx] The sources reported that the fighting killed several civilians and militiamen.[xxi] The Ethiopian Conflict Map claimed on October 6 that federal forces and the TPF had disarmed the Raya Zeb.[xxii] 

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

The ENDF and TDF have clashed near the Tekeze River on key roads leading to Shire, the capital of Tigray’s Northwestern zone. The TDF reportedly attempted to advance southwest along the B30 highway into Tselemti district, which federally backed forces control, on October 3 and October 4.[xxiii] The ENDF reportedly halted the advance and then crossed the Tekeze River approximately 30 miles southwest of Shire into TPLF-controlled northwestern Tigray.[xxiv] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and pro-TPLF analyst Yonas Nigussie reported that the ENDF had conducted drone strikes around the B30 and in Shire as well.[xxv] Reuters cited a humanitarian bulletin that reported artillery fire exchanges between the ENDF and TDF near the Tekeze crossing along the B30 on October 5, however, indicating that the ENDF has not made notable gains along the road.[xxvi] The Ethiopian Conflict Map also reported clashes between the ENDF and TDF near Dedebit, which is along a secondary road near a Tekeze River crossing approximately 55 miles west of Shire, on October 2.[xxvii] Reuters also reported ENDF airstrikes on Sheraro, which is approximately 60 miles northeast of Debebit, that killed eight people on the night of October 4 to October 5.[xxviii]

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Nothing significant to report.

Major Domestic Political Developments

The new Ethiopian federal government, still under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, took office. Ethiopia held federal elections in June 2026 in which the Abiy-led Prosperity Party garnered approximately 90 percent of legislative seats.[xxix] The Ethiopian House of Peoples’ Representatives began a new parliamentary session on October 5, with members of parliament taking their oaths and reappointing Abiy as prime minister.[xxx]

A senior federal official said that the federal government plans to establish an interim regional government in Tigray and hold elections in the region. Abraham Belay, who is a former head of the Tigray Interim Administration established after the Tigray war and the current commissioner of the Ethiopian Nuclear Energy Commission, stated on October 4 that the federal government was moving quickly to set up an interim regional government and hold elections in Tigray within months.[xxxi] Abraham also said that the ENDF was working to clear the TDF and other armed groups, including the Eritrean military, from Tigray.[xxxii] The TPF separately called on October 5 for TDF fighters to surrender to Ethiopian federal forces.[xxxiii]

Regional Activity

CTP has been unable to confirm unverified claims that Eritrean troops have increased their presence in Tigray since the fall of Mekele. The sources, which include the independent news outlet UMD Media, The Ethiopian Conflict Map, Sajid Nadeem, journalist and researcher Martin Plaut, lawyer and human rights activist Getachew Temare, and pro-Ethiopian federal government X account Conflict Zone, reported the presence of Eritrean forces near the border towns Irob, Rama, Sheraro, and Zalambessa.[xxxiv] UMD Media, Getachew, and Conflict Zone reported that the Eritrean forces include mechanized units.[xxxv] Getachew alleged that Eritrean forces have begun digging trenches in Tigray, while Nadeem claimed that the ENDF had conducted drone strikes against Eritrean forces in the region.[xxxvi] Analyst Rashid Abdi separately reported that Eritrean forces have engaged in a buildup on the Eritrea-Ethiopia border.[xxxvii] The sources did not include any supporting media or evidence, and CTP was unable to verify any of the reports via supplementary sources. CTP was also unable to find any corroborating information showing Eritrean deployments or new defensive installations in reviews of satellite imagery of the aforementioned areas from October 3. The United States and European Union called on October 3 and October 5, respectively, for Ethiopia and Eritrea to respect each other’s territorial integrity and engage in dialogue.[xxxviii]

Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan jointly affirmed each other’s sovereignty and alignment on the governance of the Nile River and Red Sea amid heightened tensions on these issues with neighboring Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s diplomatic relations with Egypt and Eritrea have deteriorated since war resumed in northern Ethiopia and ENDF Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula accused Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan of supporting the rebels.[xxxix] Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki met in Egypt on October 3, with the Eritrean Ministry of Information stating that Isais highlighted the “convergent positions of Egypt and Eritrea on regional matters.”[xl] The heads of state from the four countries then met in Egypt for a quadrilateral summit on October 4.[xli] The four countries then released a joint statement rejecting external interference in their affairs and upholding their respective territorial integrity.[xlii] Reuters cited three Egyptian officials who said that the four countries “agreed to coordinate military and intelligence efforts” if the conflict threatened their borders.[xliii] The joint statement did not mention Ethiopia but reiterated stances these countries have adopted directly in response to Ethiopia’s stated interest in obtaining sea access and building dams on the Nile River, such as rejecting “unilateral” actions regarding Nile usage and declaring that governance of the Red Sea was solely the responsibility of littoral countries.[xliv] Abiy reiterated in his reinauguration address on October 5 that his administration will ensure that Ethiopia obtains direct sea access.[xlv] The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs separately stated on October 5 that Ethiopia has claims to a role in the governance of the Nile and Red Sea.[xlvi]