Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 13 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 16 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Central Axis. Tigrayan rebel forces claim to have launched a counteroffensive that allegedly recaptured some key gateway towns near the Kola Tembien mountains in central Tigray.
• Other Rebel Activity. Amhara rebels have continued to capture rural villages and towns in eastern Amhara region.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. The Ethiopian federal government appointed a caretaker government in Tigray, with plans to hold elections within six months.
• Regional Activity. Ethiopian and Eritrean officials have met with foreign officials to push their respective narratives on the conflict, as the international community encourages de-escalation and restraint.

 Figure 1. ENDF Continues Advances in Tigray

Source: Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo; Alexander Brown and Ziv Zellars.

Northern Axis: Mekele-Adigrat-Adwa

Nothing significant to report.

Central Axis: Mekele-Abiy Addi-Adwa-Rama

Tigrayan rebel forces claim to have launched a counteroffensive that allegedly recaptured some key gateway towns near the Kola Tembien mountains in central Tigray. DW Amharic and Wazema Radio reported intense fighting involving drones between the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) military wing—and Ethiopian federal forces in Kola Tembien district, approximately 64 miles northwest of Mekele, and Shewate Hgum and Yechila, approximately 71 miles southwest of Mekele near the Amhara border, on October 15.[i] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) corroborated claims from TPLF-affiliated media that the TDF retook control of Abiy Addi and Werkamba on October 14, although TPLF-affiliated media claimed that the TDF had also captured Shewate Hgum and Yechila.^[ii] ACLED recorded a drone strike on a cattle ranch near Abiy Addi, 60 miles northwest of Mekele and 30 miles north of Yechila, in an area known as Dr. Atakilti.[iii] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and DW Amharic also reported that the TDF and ENDF clashed in Abergele, 50 miles south of Abiy Addi, on October 15.[iv]

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

Nothing significant to report.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Amhara rebels have continued to capture rural villages and towns in eastern Amhara’s South Wollo and North Shewa zones. Wazema Radio also confirmed claims from pro-Fano sources that AFNM had taken control of Wegere, a village roughly 35 miles north of the North Shewa zonal capital Debre Birhan, on October 15.[v] DW Amharic reported intense clashes between AFNM and ENDF forces around Mehal Sayint, Jama, Wegdi, and Kelala villages in Delanta district, which is roughly 20 miles west of the key crossroads town Woldia in the South Wollo zone, as of October 15.[vi] Pro-Fano sources had claimed that the group had also Wegel Tena, which is the capital of Delanta district, and the rural district capitals of Meranga town, Mehal Meda, and Zemero in North Shewa zone by October 13.[vii]

Major Domestic Political Developments:

The Ethiopian federal government appointed a caretaker government in Tigray, with plans to hold elections within six months. The Ethiopian federal government suspended the Tigray Interim administration and appointed a caretaker government on October 16 after declaring the TPLF’s defeat.[viii] The key goals of the new administration include restoring infrastructure and services damaged during the war, returning displaced individuals to their homes, resolving ongoing security challenges within Tigray, and creating a political climate for elections to be held within six months.[ix] Abiy appointed five officials associated with Prime Ministerial Adviser and former TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda’s Simret part and the Tigray Peace Forces to the administration: Ato Asefa Abrahaga Hagos as Chief Administrator and Chief of Public Service; Doctor Tewodros Aregeay W/Selassie as Chief of Economy and Reconstruction; ⁠Brig. Gen. Gebretensae Whatna Haylu as Chief of Security and Peace; Ato Redai Halefom W/Selassie as Chief of Politics and Mass Mobilization; and Doctor Shishay Amare as the Mayor of Mekelle City.[x]

Regional Activity

Ethiopian and Eritrean officials have met with foreign officials to push their respective narratives on the conflict, as the international community encourages de-escalation and restraint. Ethiopian military officials met with foreign officials and military attaches on October 13 to display a stockpile of weapons, Eritrean uniforms, and ID cards that they claimed to have seized from the TPLF that were allegedly from Eritrea and Sudan.[xi] The cache included an Iranian-made Mohajer-6 and accompanying Qaem/GB-20 high-explosive fragmentation precision-guided bomb and a Turkish-Pakistani-made YIHA-III loitering kamikaze drone. The Sudanese Armed Forces have used Mohajer-6 and YIHA-III drones in the Sudanese civil war, with Ethiopian sources accusing Eritrea of serving as a supply conduit for these drone shipments to the SAF, although Ethiopia also used Mohajer-6 drones during the first Tigray War.[xii] The stockpile also included. The Critical Threats Project assessed in its October 15 Africa File that these actions are part of Ethiopian efforts to set conditions to legally justify military action inside Eritrea on self-defense grounds.[xiii] Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh held a briefing with foreign representatives in Asmara, the Eritrean capital, where he accused Ethiopia of waging an unjustified invasion, effectively declaring war on Eritrean sovereignty, and supporting Eritrean opposition groups.[xiv] 

Several foreign officials and governments have urged de-escalation and restraint, including in conversations with top Ethiopian officials. Prime Ministerial Adviser Getachew Reda met with the EU Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Annette Weber and EU Ambassador to Ethiopia Sofie From-Emmesberg on October 13 to discuss a range of regional issues and working together to avoid further escalation.[xv] Abiy Ahmed and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone call on October 14, in which Rubio emphasized that “all countries in the Horn of Africa must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors and avoid cross-border incursions,” according to the US State Department.[xvi] Canada and the United Kingdom released statements on October 15 calling for respect for sovereignty, de-escalation, and maximum restraint.[xvii] Jawar Mohamed, an Ethiopian politician and former political ally of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, claimed on October 15 that Ethiopian officials had conditioned military restraint on Eritrea meeting demands on TPLF sanctuary, support for other armed groups, and broader security arrangements in recent discussions with international officials.[xviii]