Ethiopia War Security Review

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Key Takeaway: Tigrayan and Afar rebel forces have advanced further east in the northern Afar region, mainly on a secondary highway linked to the Afar regional capital. The Ethiopian military has reversed Amhara Tigrayan rebel advances around southern Tigray region and counterattacked north toward Tigray People’s Liberation Front-controlled Tigray. Unknown militants reportedly launched drone attacks targeting several federal airports, including the Ethiopian Air Force headquarters near Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. Several smaller members of the rebel coalition have reportedly indicated that they do not militarily support the rebel offensive, although a new rebel group joined the coalition. Ethiopia has accused Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan of supporting the rebel coalition.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Tigrayan and Afar rebel forces have advanced further east in the northern Afar region, mainly on a secondary highway linked to the Afar regional capital. The Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF) and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF’s) military wing—reportedly clashed with federally backed forces around Abala, a district capital approximately 30 miles east of Mekele—the Tigray regional capital—on the night of September 24 to September 25.[1] Agence France-Presse (AFP) cited a humanitarian source who said that the ENDF conducted drone strikes during the clash.[2] Rebel forces had previously taken control of Abala on September 22, although the same AFP source claimed on September 25 that “federal forces pushed the rebels from entering the town” the previous night.[3] The rebel forces then continued to advance east along a secondary highway that connects to the A1 highway—also known as the Ethio-Djibouti highway—near Semera, the Afar regional capital. The ARDUF and TDF captured Erebti—a district capital 75 miles east of Mekele—from federally backed forces, including the Tigray Peace Force (TPF), on September 27.[4] Pro-TPLF analyst Yonas Nigussie claimed on September 29 that the ARDUF had separately taken Dalol, which is near the Eritrean border approximately 115 miles northeast of Mekele.[5] 

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

The Ethiopian military (ENDF) has reversed Amhara rebel and TDF advances around southern Tigray region and counterattacked north toward TPLF-controlled Tigray. The Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) and TDF had initially pushed south into northeastern Amhara region via the A2 highway starting on September 23. The rebel forces repeatedly clashed with the ENDF with heavy weaponry near Kobo, which is approximately 30 miles north of Woldia, the capital of the North Wollo zone and a crossroads town connecting several major highways.[6]

The ENDF halted the rebel advance, however, and began to advance north into Tigray’s Southern zone via the A2 on September 25. The ENDF and TPF captured several towns in the Southern zone by September 28, most notably Alamata, which is 50 miles north of Woldia and approximately 115 miles south of Mekele.[7] The pro-Fano X account Amhara War Updates stated that the ENDF had conducted artillery and drone strikes in Alamata from September 25 to September 26, with one drone strike on a market killing over 10 people.[8] Amhara War Updates also reported that the ENDF and AFNM continued fighting around Kobo on September 28.[9] The ENDF separately conducted a drone strike targeting the TPLF-aligned Tigrai Television headquarters in Mekele on September 27.[10]

The ENDF separately made gains west of the A2 in northeastern Amhara. The ENDF retook Sekota, which is 70 miles west of Alamata and had previously fallen to the AFNM and TDF on September 25, on September 27.[11] The ENDF and TPF reportedly continued advancing north on September 28, capturing Abergele, which is on the Tigray regional border approximately 40 miles north of Sekota.[12] Multiple open-source analysts also reported that the ENDF and TPF took Samre, which is 65 miles northeast of Sekota and 35 miles southwest of Mekele, although the Critical Threats Project has not confirmed the reports.[13] The AFNM and ENDF additionally reportedly continued clashing around Lalibela—approximately 75 miles south of Sekota—on September 28, with federal authorities not yet resuming flights at Lalibela airport.[14] 

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

Nothing significant to report.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Unknown militants reportedly launched drone attacks targeting several federal airports, including the Ethiopian Air Force headquarters near Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. Numerous strikes on September 27 targeted Harar Meda Air Base in Bishoftu airport in the Oromia region, which is the Ethiopian Air Force headquarters approximately 35 miles southeast of Addis Ababa.[15] The strikes reportedly killed multiple ENDF soldiers and possibly damaged airport assets, according to satellite imagery analysis by open-source analyst Rich Tedd.[16] Strikes also targeted the Kombolucha airport outside near Dessie in Amhara on September 27.[17] Federal authorities temporarily halted airport operations.[18] Pro-TPLF media claimed that the Alliance for Survival, which is the rebel coalition conducting the ongoing offensive, conducted the strikes, although no coalition members have claimed responsibility yet.[19] Bishoftu and Kombolucha are near Oromo Liberation Army and AFNM areas of operation, respectively, and both of the groups are members of the Alliance for Survival. The sources also claimed that the Alliance for Survival conducted additional strikes at the Semera, Addis Adaba, and Bahir Dar airports, although the strikes remain unconfirmed.[20]

Major Domestic Political Activity

Several smaller members of the rebel coalition have reportedly indicated that they do not militarily support the rebel offensive, although a new rebel group joined the coalition. A spokesperson for the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) stated in an interview with Al Jazeera the ONLF supports the Alliance for Survival’s political goals but that it does not intend to take up arms against the federal government.[21] Deutsche Welle Amharic also reported that spokespeople from the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement separately denied that their groups were members of the Alliance for Survival.[22] The Sidama National Liberation Front announced on September 24 that it had joined the Alliance for Survival, however.[23]

Regional Involvement

Ethiopia has accused Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan of supporting the rebel coalition. ENDF Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula stated on September 25 that Eritrea was financially supporting the TPLF and facilitating support from external actors to the rebel group.[24] The federally backed Afar regional president stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that the Eritrean military was directly participating in the rebel offensive.[25] The Ethiopian think tank Horn Review cited an “intelligence report” from September 25 alleging that the Eritrean military had deployed troops from at least three divisions to the Eritrean border with the Afar region.[26] The Eritrean information minister stated on September 28 that the Ethiopian federal government was “shifting the blame” for the conflict from itself to Eritrea.[27] Birhanu also claimed that Egypt and Sudan were enabling the rebel offensive. The Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson stated denied the accusation, while the Sudanese military and Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the allegations “baseless” and “unsubstantiated.”[28]