Ethiopia War Security Review

Contributor: Alexander Brown

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 27, 2026, at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 30, 2026, at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. The Ethiopian military has conducted consecutive days of drone strikes in Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-held Rama, a town on the Eritrean border, amid reported fighting around the Rama-Adwa highway.
• Western Axis. The Ethiopian military and TPLF continued clashing northwest of Shire as the ENDF attempts to consolidate control of the area.
• Central Axis. The Ethiopian military and the TDF have continued fighting over control of the mountainous Tigray interior.
• Northern Amhara Sector. The ENDF reportedly conducted drone strikes targeting the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) in mountainous areas around the A2 highway between Dessie and Woldia.
• Other Rebel Kinetic Activity. The Oromo Liberation Army reportedly clashed with federal and regional forces in western Oromia region.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. AFNM figure Eskinder Nega announced that he was leaving the AFNM.
• Regional and International Activity. Ethiopia and Russia reaffirmed their intent to strengthen ties at the Russia-Africa Summit, with Russia delivering fighter jets to Ethiopia amid the summit. Ethiopia welcomed the candidacy of Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh for United Nations-Secretary General. The Ethiopian Navy held a four-day forum on security in the Red Sea and conjoining waterways including naval officers from Djibouti, Oman, Puntland, Somaliland, and Yemen.

Figure 1. ENDF and TPLF Battle Across Tigray

Source: Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Alexander Brown

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Rama-Zalambessa-Dallol

The Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) has conducted consecutive days of drone strikes in TPLF-held Rama, a town on the Eritrean border, amid reported fighting around the Rama-Adwa highway. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), the TPLF’s military wing, retook Rama on October 22 following an ENDF withdrawal from the town.[i] Several conflict trackers on social media have reported ENDF drone strikes in Rama the past few days, with the analyst and mapper The Ethiopian Conflict Map stating that the strikes began on October 27.[ii] The ENDF conducted a drone strike on October 30 that killed at least 12 civilians, who were reportedly collecting grain from a transport truck that had been struck the previous day.[iii] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and a pro-Fano account on X have reported fighting between the ENDF and TDF on both sides of highway that connects Rama to ENDF-held Adwa, which is approximately 20 miles to the south, since October 28.[iv]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

The ENDF and TDF continued clashing northwest of Shire as the ENDF attempts to consolidate control of the area. The two sides clashed near Adi Nebreid and Adi Hageray, which is 40 miles northwest of Shire, on October 27 and 28 after the ENDF reportedly advanced into the area.[v] Fighting reportedly occurred north of the two towns, which are on a road that connects Sheraro approximately 20 miles to the west. Pro-TPLF journalist Yonas Nigussie and a pro-Fano account on X separately reported that the TDF repelled the ENDF.[vi] 

Central Axis: Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum

Ethiopian federal forces and the TDF have continued fighting over control of the mountainous Tigray interior. Federal forces have continued efforts to clear the TDF from its mountain havens around Abiy Addi, which is 55 miles west of Mekele, after capturing both Abiy Addi and Zana on October 22.[vii] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that federal forces gained control of multiple areas around Kola Tembien, which is just northwest of Abiy Addi, amid clashes with the TDF from October 27 to 29.[viii]

Federal forces have also attempted to clear the TDF from havens near Tigray’s city belt, specifically on both sides of Tigray’s main east-west highway. Federal forces have repeatedly clashed with the TDF around the highway since October 20.[ix] ACLED reported federal movements toward Werie Lehe, which is approximately 40 miles southeast of Adwa, from positions to the south and west on October 28.[x] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported fighting between federal forces and the TDF in the area on the same day.[xi] Clashes also reportedly occurred near Chila, which is between Axum and Shire approximately 15 miles north of the east-west highway, on October 28 and 29 amid reported federal artillery strikes.[xii]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Amhara Sector: From B22 Highway Northward

The ENDF reportedly conducted drone strikes targeting the Amhara Fano National Movement in mountainous areas around the A2 highway between Dessie and Woldia. The Ethiopian Conflict Map and two pro-Fano sources reported on October 29 that the ENDF conducted strikes near Hayk, which is 20 miles north of Dessie.[xiii] The pro-Fano sources alleged that the strikes hit an internally displaced persons camp, killing over a dozen civilians.[xiv]

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) reportedly clashed with federal and regional forces in western Oromia region. Multiple news outlets had previously reported on October 20 and 21 that suspected OLA militants attacked a sugar factory in Fincha, which is in the Horo Guduru Welega zone approximately 175 miles northwest of Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital.^[xv] The attack, which would have been one of the OLA’s first since the war between the federal government and Alliance for Survival rebel coalition began in September 2026, reportedly killed several security officers and elicited a federal drone strike against the militants.^[xvi] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 29 that the OLA clashed again with federal police and Oromia regional forces in Fincha.^[xvii]  

Major Domestic Political Developments

AFNM figure Eskinder Nega announced that he was leaving the AFNM. Eskinder had led the Amhara Fano Peace Organization, one of the groups that merged to form the AFNM, and voiced support for AFNM’s creation in January 2026, despite reportedly declining to serve as its policy and strategy head.^[xviii] Deutsche Welle reported on October 28 that Eskinder stated that he was leaving the AFNM due to the group’s membership in the Alliance for Survival, specifically citing the TPLF’s influence in the coalition.^[xix]

Regional and International Activity

Ethiopia and Russia reaffirmed their intent to strengthen ties at the Russia-Africa Summit, with Russia delivering fighter jets to Ethiopia amid the summit. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on October 28 on the sidelines of the summit in Moscow and expressed their mutual interest in deepening cooperation between the two countries.[xx] Abiy emphasized nuclear energy cooperation as a priority, calling for increased funding and training for Ethiopian experts.[xxi] The Russian ambassador to Ethiopia said in an interview with Russian state media published on October 26 that Russia and Ethiopia are drafting an agreement to cooperate on the construction of a nuclear power plant in Ethiopia, with Abiy reporting progress on the agreement on October 29.[xxii]    

Russia delivered fighter jets to Ethiopia amid the summit as part of a preexisting deal. Abiy thanked Putin on X on October 28 for the delivery of Russian Su-35 fighter jets, which Abiy said Russia delivered a year ahead of schedule.[xxiii] Abiy stated that Russia would deliver 12 fighter jets, although the Russian state-owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport commented to Reuters that it had delivered two fighter jets to the Ethiopian Air Force.[xxiv] The prime minister also said that Russia will eventually deliver four S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries.[xxv] Abiy portrayed the delivery as part of Ethiopian efforts to “preemptively deter aggression.”[xxvi] Eritrean Minister of Information Yemane Gebremeskel stated on X on October 28 that the delivery will support an Ethiopian “‘pre-emptive’ war of aggression.”[xxvii]

Ethiopia welcomed the candidacy of Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh for United Nations-Secretary General. Nusseibeh previously announced her candidacy on October 22.[xxviii] The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on X on October 29 that Ethiopia “welcomes” Nusseibeh’s candidacy, pointing to her diplomatic experience.[xxix] Nusseibeh expressed gratitude to the Ethiopian foreign ministry on October 30.[xxx]

The Ethiopian Navy held a four-day forum on security in the Red Sea and conjoining waterways including naval officers from Djibouti, Oman, Puntland, Somaliland, and Yemen. The Ethiopian Navy hosted the forum, which was sponsored by the European Union, at its headquarters from October 26 to 29.[xxxi] The forum was intended to increase maritime cooperation among the participants in search-and-rescue operations and broader security matters.[xxxii]