Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 23 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 27 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Central Axis. Ethiopian federal forces captured a Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) central command member, Major General Yohannes Woldegiyorgis (John Medid), in the central Tigray zone. Federal forces have continued efforts to clear the TPLF from havens near Tigray’s city belt, particularly around Tigray’s main east-west highway.
• Southern Axis. The Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) has expanded its campaign to contest key federal supply lines throughout northern Amhara region. Federal forces reportedly advanced further south on a secondary road from Abiy Addi toward the Tigray-Amhara regional border.
• Western Axis. The Ethiopian military and TPLF have reportedly continued clashing northwest of Shire, with the military failing to make notable gains.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. The interim Tigray regional government has begun restoring basic services and electoral processes in Tigray.
• Regional and International Activity. Ethiopian officials have continued to express the views that Ethiopia must obtain direct access to the Red Sea and have a role in the waterway’s governance. Russia and China have signaled their intent to mediate between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Figure 1. ENDF and TPLF Battle for the Tigray Interior 

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Alexander Brown. 

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Rama-Zalambessa-Dallol

Nothing significant to report.

Central Axis: Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum

Ethiopian federal forces captured a TPLF central command member, Major General Yohannes Woldegiyorgis (John Medid), in the central Tigray zone. Federal forces reportedly surrounded Medid before capturing him and several other Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the TPLF’s military wing—commanders on October 26.[i] BBC Tigrinya cited federally backed Tigray Peace Force (TPF) head Gebretensae Whatna Haylu and TDF sources that said that Medid and his associates surrendered to federal forces.[ii] The TPLF accused Medid on October 27 of defecting to the federal government.[iii]

Federal forces have continued efforts to clear the TDF from havens near Tigray’s city belt, particularly around Tigray’s main east-west highway. Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) reported on October 23 that the Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) consolidated control of the Adet and Zana districts, which are located south of the B30 highway between Axum and Shire, following a TDF withdrawal.[iv] A pro-Fano account on X reported on October 25 that TDF forces withdrew south to the mountainous Kola Tembien area.[v] ACLED reported that the ENDF and TDF fought in Chila, which is located approximately 15 miles north of the B30 between Axum and Shire, on October 26.[vi] The two sides also clashed south of the A2 highway, which connects to the B30 from the east, around Azeba—approximately 15 miles southwest of Adigrat—on October 24.[vii]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

The AFNM has expanded its campaign to contest key federal supply lines throughout northern Amhara region. The Fano group launched a new offensive in the South Gondar zone around the B22 and A3 highways on October 23. The B22 is an east-west highway connecting Woldia to the Amhara regional capital, Bahir Dar, which is on the A3 leading to western and northwestern Tigray. Two pro-Fano accounts on X reported that the AFNM attacked ENDF positions on the B22 near Nefas Mewcha and Kimir Dingay, which is approximately 45 miles east of the A3.[viii] The two accounts also reported AFNM attacks on the A3 near Hamusit Mender and Addis Zemen, which are approximately 20 and 45 miles north of Bahir Dar.[ix] The pro-Fano Amhara War Updates account claimed that the fighting closed portions of the B22 and A3, although the Critical Threats Project could not confirm the unverified claim.[x] The AFNM also clashed with the ENDF in multiple locations on a secondary road linked to the A3, including Anbesame, which is approximately 10 miles southeast of Hamusit Mender.[xi]

Figure 2. AFNM Targets Federal Supply Lines in Amhara 

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Alexander Brown; ACLED.

The AFNM separately made gains to the east around the A2, the main highway leading into Tigray. The group previously captured Wurgessa, which is between Dessie and Woldia, on October 3.[xii] The AFNM then captured Girana, which is located just east of Wurgessa, on October 24.[xiii] The analyst and mapper The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that the EDNF had conducted airstrikes around the A2 in the preceding days.[xiv]

Federal forces reportedly advanced further south on a secondary road from Abiy Addi toward the Tigray-Amhara regional border. The TDF previously moved along the road and captured Abergele, which is on the Tigray-Amhara regional border approximately 95 miles south of Abiy Addi, by October 23.[xv] Federal forces responded by advancing from Abiy Addi to Yechila, which is 50 miles south.[xvi] Federal forces reportedly took full control of Yechila on October 25.[xvii]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

The ENDF and TDF have reportedly continued clashing northwest of Shire, with the ENDF failing to make notable gains. The TDF had stymied previous ENDF attempts to advance toward Sheraro, which is 60 miles northwest of Shire, as of October 24.[xviii] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 25 that the ENDF had lost ground between Adi Dairo and Adi Hageray, which are approximately 20 and 40 miles northwest of Shire, respectively.[xix] A pro-Fano account on X reported that the EDNF and TDF exchanged artillery and small arms fire near Adi Hageray on October 26.[xx]

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Nothing significant to report.

Major Domestic Political Developments

The interim Tigray regional government has begun restoring basic services and electoral processes in Tigray. The political head of the interim government, Ato Redai Halefom W/Selassie, announced in a press conference on October 23 that the interim government was holding local elections across Tigray, including southern Tigray.[xxi] Two pro-Fano accounts on X reported civilian protests in Alamata on October 23 over the disputed elections and the TPF’s presence, however.[xxii] The interim government held elections in several subdivisions of Mekele, the Tigray regional capital, on October 25 to determine subdivision leaders for the six-month transitional period.[xxiii] ACLED reported on October 26 that the interim government has ordered schools to reopen and civil servants to return to work.[xxiv]  

Regional and International Activity

Ethiopian officials have continued to express the views that Ethiopia must obtain direct access to the Red Sea and have a role in the waterway’s governance. Ethiopian intelligence head Redwan Hussein stated at the Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa on October 23 that littoral states should not solely govern the Red Sea.[xxv] ENDF Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula separately stated at a military ceremony on October 25 that God intended for Ethiopia to use the Red Sea, according to Ethiopian state media.[xxvi] Birhanu also accused Eritrea of providing military support to the TPLF.[xxvii]

Russia and China have signaled their intent to mediate between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov previously told the Russian newspaper Izvestia in an interview published on October 16 that Russia would be willing to mediate between the two countries on the sidelines of the upcoming Russia-Africa Summit, which will be on October 28 and 29 in Moscow.[xxviii] Senior Russian diplomat Georgy Borisenko then discussed regional security with Ethiopian State Minister of Foreign Affairs Hadera Abera in Moscow on October 26.[xxix] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on October 27 that Russia is prepared to mediate between the two countries.[xxx] Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki arrived in Moscow for the summit on October 27, and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will also reportedly participate in the summit.[xxxi] Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun separately stated on October 27 that a Chinese special envoy will travel to “regional countries” to promote “dialogue and deescalation.”[xxxii]