Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from November 6 at 9:00 A.M. EST to November 10 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. Ethiopian federal forces and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces reportedly continued operations against each other in two areas near the Ethiopia-Eritrea border.
• Western Axis. Several conflict trackers reported clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces on their shared border, although the Critical Threats Project (CTP) was unable to confirm whether clashes occurred on the Ethiopian or Eritrean side of the border.
• Northern Amhara Sector. The Ethiopian military reportedly retook two towns on the A2 highway between Dessie and Woldia, further consolidating its control of the key road segment. Several pro-Fano accounts on X claimed that the Amhara Fano National Movement attacked Ethiopian military positions in northwestern Amhara near the Sudanese border.
• Other Rebel Kinetic Activity. Suspected Oromo Liberation Army fighters assassinated a ruling party official in the North Shewa zone of the Oromia region.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. The interim Tigray regional government reportedly apprehended several former TPLF officials as the interim authorities face internal tensions.
• Regional and International Activity. Egypt reiterated its opposition to Ethiopia’s agenda on sea access and Nile River usage.

Figure 1. ENDF and TPLF Battle Across Tigray

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Alexander Brown.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Rama-Zalambessa-Dallol

Ethiopian federal forces and TPLF forces reportedly continued operations against each other in two areas near the Ethiopia-Eritrea border. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and analyst and mapper The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that federal forces and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the TPLF’s military wing—mobilized forces around Rama, which is approximately 20 miles north of Adwa and just south of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, between November 5 and 7.[i] The two sides then clashed around Rama on November 7, with ACLED and the TDF reporting that fighting occurred in the Wadi Ambray Tabia area.[ii] ACLED reported that federal forces retook Rama, while the TDF claimed to have overcome federal forces and inflicted mass casualties upon them.[iii]

Federal forces also reportedly advanced into a separate border area between Rama and Zalambessa. The Ethiopian news outlet Wazema Radio and a pro-Fano account X previously reported clashes between Ethiopian federal forces and the TDF around Egela—approximately 50 miles northwest of Adigrat—on November 2 and 3, with additional sources reporting earlier clashes involving Eritrean forces between October 30 and November 1.[iv] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that federal forces had moved into the nearby Kinto border area as of November 8.[v] Another conflict tracker on X reported on November 8 that federal forces established positions in nearby Leyto, which is south of Kinto.[vi]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

Several conflict trackers reported clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces on their shared border, although CTP was unable to confirm whether clashes occurred on the Ethiopian or Eritrean side of the border. The Ethiopian Conflict Map and another conflict tracker on X reported that the Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) had built up its forces in Adi Awala, which is approximately 50 miles northwest of Shire, since taking the town and Sheraro on November 3.[vii] Both conflict trackers also reported that the Eritrean military had reinforced its positions around Badme, an Eritrean border town approximately 75 miles northwest of Shire, as of November 9.[viii] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and Sajid Nadeem then reported that the two sides clashed around Badme on November 9, while an open-source analyst on X reported unconfirmed clashes in the area.[ix] Nadeem also reported ENDF drone strikes in Eritrean territory, including in Badme, although CTP was unable to confirm the unverified claim.[x]

Central Axis: Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Amhara Sector: From B21 Northward

The ENDF reportedly retook two towns on the A2 highway between Dessie and Woldia, further consolidating its control of the key road segment. The military had reportedly recaptured Wuchale and Girana from the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) on November 3 and 4, respectively.[xi] The analyst and mapper The Ethiopian Conflict Map then reported that the ENDF captured Lipso, which is approximately 30 miles south of Woldia on the A2, on November 6 after multiple days of fighting.[xii] The Ethiopian Conflict Map also reported that the ENDF retook nearby Wurgessa, which the AFNM had captured on October 3, on November 10 after multiple days of fighting prompted an AFNM withdrawal.[xiii]  

Several pro-Fano accounts on X claimed that the AFMN attacked ENDF positions in northwestern Amhara near the Sudanese border. The accounts alleged that the AFNM fighters attacked ENDF positions in Zebach Bahir, which is approximately 100 miles west of Gondar in the Metema district, on November 9.[xiv] CTP was unable to confirm the unverified reports.

Figure 2. ENDF Secures the A2 Highway in Amhara

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Armed Conflict Location & Event Data.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Suspected Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) fighters assassinated a ruling party official in the North Shewa zone of the Oromia region. The suspected OLA fighters reportedly killed Biniam Adugna—a senior Prosperity Party official in the Yaya Guele district—at his residence in Fital, which is approximately 70 miles north of Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, on November 9.[xv] Wazema Radio reported that the perpetrators looted several businesses and residences before leaving Fital.[xvi]

Major Domestic Political Developments

The interim Tigray regional government reportedly apprehended several former TPLF officials as the interim authorities face internal tensions. A conflict tracker, a pro-Tigray Peace Force (TPF) account, and a pro-Fano account on X separately reported regional government operations on November 7 that targeted former TPLF officials in Mekele, the Tigray regional capital, as well as potentially in the Central Tigray zone.[xvii] The interim authorities reportedly apprehended at least seven former TPLF officials, including the former head of security in the region, Tekleberhan Tesfalem.[xviii]

The interim regional government is reportedly dealing with internal tensions. Members of the TPF—a federally backed Tigrayan armed group that has assumed key security responsibilities within Tigray—and Ethiopian Prime Ministerial Adviser Getachew Reda’s Simret party lead the interim regional government, which has been appointing officials and holding local elections since assuming office on October 16.[xix] Wazema Radio reported on November 9 that some TPF officials disapprove of the interim authorities’ appointment process due to its perceived exclusiveness and lack of transparency.[xx] Wazema Radio also reported “unsubstantiated allegations” that the interim regional government’s head of security—Gebretensae Whatna Haylu, who is also a senior TPF official—was organizing a breakaway armed group, although an anonymous TPF official refuted the unconfirmed allegations.[xxi] Getachew, who is an overseer of the interim regional government, separately stated in an X post on November 10 that the interim authorities will begin paying salaries to civil servants and called for peace after reported internal disputes over federal budgetary transfers to Tigray and withheld salaries.[xxii]

Regional and International Activity

Egypt reiterated its opposition to Ethiopia’s agenda on sea access and Nile River usage. The Egyptian and Sudanese foreign and irrigation ministers previously issued a joint statement on November 2 rejecting Ethiopian development of dams on the Nile.[xxiii] The Egyptian news outlet Egypt Today reported on November 8 that Egypt and Sudan plan to establish a commission to evaluate any “damages” that Ethiopia’s operationalization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam caused.[xxiv] Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty separately stated in a meeting with the Djiboutian and Somali foreign ministers on November 7 that only littoral countries should have a role in Red Sea governance.[xxv] Ethiopian Navy Commander Vice Admiral Kindu Gezu reportedly did not rule out Ethiopia using force to achieve sea access in a speech on November 7.[xxvi] Abdelatty then discussed security in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and European Union officials on the sidelines of the G7 summit on November 9.[xxvii]