Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 30 at 9:00 A.M. EST to November 3 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. Two conflict trackers and an Ethiopian federal government-aligned official alleged that Ethiopian federal and Eritrean forces exchanged fire on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, although the Critical Threats Project (CTP) was unable to confirm the unverified claims.
• Western Axis. The Ethiopian military reportedly advanced toward Sheraro, which is 60 miles northwest of Shire.
• Central Axis. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has continued contesting Ethiopian federal efforts to control the mountainous Tigray interior, including areas around Tigray’s city belt.
• Northern Amhara Sector. The Amhara Fano National Movement continued contesting ENDF control of northern Amhara region on two separate axes, including the key north-south A2 highway between Dessie and Woldia.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. Key leaders from the Alliance for Survival rebel coalition released their first joint video statement in which they reiterated their goal of overthrowing the Ethiopian federal government. The interim Tigray regional government reportedly approved restrictions on candidates’ eligibility in advance of planned regional elections as part of broader governance efforts in the region.
• Regional and International Activity. Egypt and Sudan jointly reaffirmed their claims to the Nile River and denounced Ethiopian policy in the waterway.

Figure 1. ENDF and TPLF Battle Across Tigray

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Alexander Brown.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Rama-Zalambessa-Dallol

Two conflict trackers and an Ethiopian federal government-aligned official alleged that Ethiopian federal and Eritrean forces exchanged fire on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, although CTP was unable to confirm the unverified claims. Eritrean forces allegedly withdrew to the Eritrean border near Zalambessa, which is approximately 25 miles north of Adigrat, in mid-October 2026 amid Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) pressure after a reported Eritrean incursion.[i] Conflict reporter Sajid Nadeem claimed that Ethiopian federal and Eritrean forces clashed in the border area south of Tserona, an Eritrean town approximately 65 miles northwest of Adigrat, on October 30.[ii] Nadeem and another conflict tracker on X also claimed that the ENDF conducted artillery and drone strikes in the same border area from October 30 to November 1, with the other tracker alleging another ground clash on November 1.[iii] Deutsche Welle cited an official from the Tigray Peace Force (TPF), a federally backed Tigrayan armed group, who claimed that federal forces took the border area Egela from Eritrean and TPLF forces on November 1.[iv] A pro-Fano account on X separately reported fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), the TPLF’s military wing, amid an Ethiopian federal advance into the same border area on November 2.[v] CTP was unable to confirm any of the unverified claims.

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

The ENDF reportedly advanced toward Sheraro, which is 60 miles northwest of Shire. The ENDF has repeatedly attempted to take Sheraro since capturing Shire on October 8.[vi] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on November 2 that the ENDF advanced to the south and southwest of Sheraro and clashed with the TDF.[vii] A pro-TPF account on X reported that federal forces entered Sheraro on November 3.[viii]

Central Axis: Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum

The TDF has continued contesting Ethiopian federal efforts to control the mountainous Tigray interior, including areas around Tigray’s city belt. Federal forces have focused on clearing the TDF from its interior havens since mid-October and have repeatedly clashed with the TDF. Fighting between the two sides reportedly broke out on October 31 and November 1 around areas that were previously cleared by federal forces in the Naeder Adet district and Kola Tembien area, with Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) reporting a large TDF presence in Naeder Adet.[ix] Federal forces also clashed with the TDF near previously cleared Bizet, which is approximately 20 miles west of Adigrat, on November 1 and 2.[x] Federal forces reportedly captured commanders from the TDF’s Army 15 contingent, including Colonel Haile Selassie Assefa.[xi] Analyst Getachew Temare reported that Haile was a TDF liaison to the Eritrean military.[xii]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Amhara Sector: From B22 Northward

The Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) continued contesting ENDF control of northern Amhara region on two separate axes, including the key north-south A2 highway between Dessie and Woldia. The AFNM previously captured Girana, which is just off the A2 approximately 30 miles south of Woldia, on October 24.[xiii] The AFNM and ENDF then clashed multiple times around nearby Ambassel, Werebabo, and Wuchale from October 30 to November 2, closing sections of the A2.[xiv] The ENDF supplemented its ground efforts with several drone strikes.[xv] Two accounts on X, including a pro-Fano account, reported that the AFNM captured Wuchale—on the A2 just south of Girana—on November 2, although CTP could not confirm the reports.[xvi]

The AFNM also reportedly captured a town off both the east-west B22 highway and north-south A3 highway leading into western Tigray. The AFNM launched an offensive in the South Gondar zone around the two highways on October 23.[xvii] Two pro-Fano accounts and a conflict tracker on X then reported several ENDF drone strikes across South Gondar from October 30 to November 2.[xviii] The AFNM reportedly captured Ibnat, which is approximately 20 miles north of the B22 and 25 miles east of the A3, on November 2.[xix]

Figure 2. AFNM Targets Federal Supply Lines in Amhara

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Alexander Brown; ACLED.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Nothing significant to report.

Major Domestic Political Developments

Key leaders from the Alliance for Survival rebel coalition released their first joint video statement in which they reiterated their goal of overthrowing the Ethiopian federal government. The statement, which was published on October 31, featured AFNM head Zemane Kassie and TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael. Zemane stated that the coalition had agreed on a plan to advance both its immediate military and medium-term political objectives, which include outreach to other countries’ governments in the Horn of Africa.[xx] The AFNM and Oromo Liberation Army separately released a joint written statement on behalf of the coalition on October 31 that reaffirmed the video statement.[xxi]

The interim Tigray regional government reportedly approved restrictions on candidates’ eligibility in advance of planned regional elections as part of broader governance efforts in the region. The interim regional government began holding local elections in late October, and ACLED reported on November 1 that elections had occurred in Axum and Abiy Addi, among other locations.[xxii] Regional elections are supposed to occur by April 2026.[xxiii] The Ethiopian news outlet Wazema Radio reported that the interim regional government is barring anyone who fought in the first Tigray war from 2020 to 2022 and members of political parties from contesting the planned elections.[xxiv] Wazema Radio also reported that the interim regional government will resume payments to civil servants who have returned to work on November 9.[xxv]

Regional and International Activity

Egypt and Sudan jointly reaffirmed their claims to the Nile River and denounced Ethiopian policy in the waterway. The Egyptian and Sudanese foreign and irrigation ministers met on November 2 as part of the “‘2+2’ consultation mechanism” on Nile management.[xxvi] The two countries released a joint statement detailing their historic claims to the Nile as outlined by the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, which Ethiopia did not sign.[xxvii] The statement also rejected Ethiopian development of dams on the Nile, describing Ethiopian actions as “unilateral.”[xxviii]