Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 20 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 23 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has reportedly retaken a town on the Eritrean border that the Ethiopian military vacated during a redeployment of federal forces to central Tigray.
• Central Axis. Ethiopian federal forces have continued efforts to secure Tigray’s city belt and clear the TPLF’s main havens in the mountainous Tigray interior.
• Southern Axis. The TPLF and Amhara Fano National Movement have contested towns on main and secondary roads near the Tigray-Amhara regional border.
• Western Axis. The Ethiopian military and TPLF have reportedly clashed as federal forces attempt to consolidate control of areas of northwestern Tigray off the region’s city belt.
• Other Rebel Kinetic Activity. The Ethiopian state-run Benishangul Gumuz regional television accused the TPLF of making an incursion into Benishangul Gumuz from Sudan.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. The Ethiopian federal government has continued to pursue plans to reinstitute a Tigray regional government in advance of planned regional elections within six months.
• Regional and International Activity. Ethiopian and Eritrean officials have continued to push their respective narratives on the conflict, both in the media and meetings with foreign officials.

Figure 1. Ethiopian Military and TPLF Battle for the Tigray Interior

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Alexander Brown.

Northern Axis: Rama-Zalambessa-Dallol

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has reportedly retaken a town on the Eritrean border that the Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) vacated during a redeployment of federal forces to central Tigray. The ENDF withdrew south from multiple localities along the Eritrean border between October 17 and 19 amid a Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the TPLF’s military wing—counteroffensive in central Tigray.[i] The Armed Conflict Location and Events Database and X analyst and mapper The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 22 that the TDF had reentered one of the towns, Rama, which is approximately 25 miles north of Adwa.[ii]

Central Axis: Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum

Ethiopian federal forces have continued efforts to secure Tigray’s city belt and clear the TPLF’s main havens in the mountainous Tigray interior. The ENDF has concentrated forces in the area since the TDF launched a counteroffensive contesting key supply lines in central Tigray in mid-October 2026.[iii] Ethiopian federal forces reportedly captured Semema, which is approximately 20 miles south of the B30 highway between Shire and Adwa, on October 20.[iv]  The forces then took Zana—approximately 25 miles southeast of Shire—on October 22, reportedly following heavy fighting.[v] The ENDF also clashed with the TDF north of the highway near Debre Damo, which is approximately 30 miles from Adigrat, on October 21 and 22.[vi] Ethiopian federal forces has separately worked to clear TPLF safe havens on secondary roads west of Mekele, the Tigray regional capital. The ENDF captured Abiy Addi, which is 55 miles west of Mekele, on October 22.[vii]

Southern Axis: Samre-Sekota-Alamata-Woldia

The TDF and Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) have contested towns on main and secondary roads near the Tigray-Amhara regional border. The TDF has used its positions in the mountainous Tigray interior to pressure Ethiopian federal forces southwest of Mekele. The TDF and AFNM have reportedly clashed with federal forces on the secondary road leading from Abiy Addi to Sekota, which is approximately 95 miles south of Abiy Addi in the Amhara region, since October 20.[viii] The rebel forces reportedly took Abergele—50 miles south of Abiy Addi—by October 23, according to the Ethiopian Conflict Map.[ix] The ENDF has conducted drone strikes around Abergele, with a strike in nearby Finarwa killing four civilians on October 21.[x] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 23 that federal forces have made their own advance from Abiy Addi to Yechila, which is 30 miles to the south.[xi]

The AFNM has separately continued contesting key supply lines in northeastern Amhara region. Fighting between the AFNM and ENDF on the B22—an east-west highway connecting Woldia to the Amhara regional capital, Bahir Dar—halted traffic between Istayish and Sanka, which is approximately 15 miles west of Woldia, on October 22. There have been conflicting reports on whether traffic has resumed.[xii]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

The ENDF and TDF have reportedly clashed as the ENDF attempts to consolidate control of areas of northwestern Tigray off the region’s city belt. The ENDF captured Shire—the westernmost Tigrayan city on the B30, which connects several cities across Tigray—on October 8 and has since advanced near Sheraro, which is 60 miles northwest of Shire.[xiii] A pro-Fano account on X reported on October 21 that the ENDF and TDF clashed west of Shire, including near Sheraro and Dedebit, which is 45 miles from Shire, respectively.[xiv] The same account also reported that the TDF subsequently set up blockades on roads leading west and south from Shire.[xv] The Ethiopian Conflict Map separately reported fighting near Dedebit on October 22.[xvi]

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

The Ethiopian state-run Benishangul Gumuz regional television accused the TPLF of making an incursion into Benishangul Gumuz from Sudan. The state media outlet claimed on October 22 that three vehicles of TPLF fighters had entered Benishangul Gumuz from southeastern Sudan’s Blue Nile state.[xvii] The ENDF and Benishangul-Gumuz regional forces allegedly killed, wounded, or captured several TPLF fighters.[xviii] The state media outlet accused Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan of sponsoring the alleged TPLF operation.[xix] The Critical Threats Project could not verify the unconfirmed incursion.  

Major Domestic Political Developments

The Ethiopian federal government has continued to pursue plans to reinstitute a Tigray regional government in advance of planned regional elections within six months.[xx] Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appointed a caretaker regional council on October 16 with the goal of restoring security and governance in Tigray and preparing for regional elections.[xxi] The appointed council officials will reportedly rotate as head of the council until elections are held.[xxii] Wazema Radio reported that the council has the authority to create an interim regional government, including a cabinet, but cannot enact new regulations or undertake new commercial activities.[xxiii] The Canada-based news outlet UMD Media reported that Abiy adviser Getachew Reda, Ethiopian intelligence head Redwan Hussein, and federal minister Abraham Belay will oversee the council on behalf of Abiy.[xxiv] The council’s peace and security head, Gebretensae Whatna Haylu, spoke at a mass event at Mekele stadium on October 20 and said that the Tigrayan youth will work toward development rather than war.[xxv] A representative from the United Nations (UN) office in Ethiopia met with the council’s administration and public services head, Assefa Abrahaga Hagos, on October 21 and expressed support for the council.[xxvi]

International Activity

Ethiopian and Eritrean officials have continued to push their respective narratives on the conflict, both in the media and meetings with foreign officials. Abiy stated in an October 19 interview with Ethiopian state media that Eritrea is seeking to destabilize Ethiopia by supporting Ethiopian rebel groups.[xxvii] Abiy said that Eritrea will face “extremely severe consequences” if it continues to destabilize Ethiopia rather than become “a development partner.”[xxviii] Eritrean Minister of Information Yemane Meskel responded on October 20 by accusing Abiy of “three-year old threats of war of aggression and invasion” over Ethiopian sea access via Eritrea.[xxix] The Eritrean Ministry of Information followed up by publishing two essays on October 21 reiterating related narratives.[xxx] The Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs also reportedly issued a statement accusing Ethiopia of destabilizing the region.[xxxi]

Officials from both countries have pushed the narratives in meetings with foreign counterparts. Permanent Representative of Eritrea to the UN Sophia Tesfamariam met with Permanent Representative of the United States to the UN Michael Waltz on October 20.[xxxii] Tesfamariam stated that she had emphasized Ethiopian threats to annex Eritrean territory, particularly on the Red Sea.[xxxiii] The Horn of Africa researcher Mohamed Kheir Omer cited diplomatic sources on October 20 who claimed that Eritrean Minister of Foreign Affairs Osman Saleh and Eritrean presidential adviser Yemane Gebreab had traveled to Kenya several days prior to encourage Kenya to mediate between Eritrea and Ethiopia, however.[xxxiv] Getachew also met with the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for the Horn of Africa Guang Cong on October 21.[xxxv] Getachew stated that he had emphasized Eritrea’s “destructive role” in “destabilizing” Ethiopia and the broader region.[xxxvi]