Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from November 3 at 9:00 A.M. EST to November 6 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF’s) military wing, reportedly continued fighting and mobilizing forces near the Ethiopia-Eritrea border.
• Western Axis. The Ethiopian military reportedly advanced further northwest of Shire after capturing Sheraro.
• Central Axis. Federal forces killed TDF commander Colonel Semere Teklu during operations around the A2 highway in the Tigray region’s city belt.
• Northern Amhara Sector. The Ethiopian military and Amhara Fano National Movement continued clashing around the A2 highway between Dessie and Woldia.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. The interim Tigray regional government created a new administrative zone out of the Kola Tembien district. The Ethiopian military ordered a curfew, among other measures, to secure Mekele, the Tigray regional capital. The federal government is overseeing a disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration process for former TDF fighters.
• Regional and International Activity. Ethiopia and Sudan retaliated diplomatically against each other after Sudanese government accused Ethiopia of providing drone safe havens to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in the Sudanese civil war. Two Chinese special envoys met with senior Ethiopian and Eritrean officials separately as part of a Chinese effort to mediate between the two countries.

Figure 1. ENDF and TPLF Battle Across Tigray

Note: ENDF stands for Ethiopian National Defense Force. TPLF stands for Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Source: Michael DeAngelo; Liam Karr; Alexander Brown.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Axis: Rama-Zalambessa-Dallol

Ethiopian federal forces and the TDF reportedly continued fighting and mobilizing forces near the Ethiopia-Eritrea border. Two conflict trackers on X and an official from the Tigray Peace Force (TPF)—a Tigrayan armed group backed by the Ethiopian federal government—previously claimed that Ethiopian federal forces clashed with Eritrean and TPLF forces in the Egela border area (Ethiopia), which is approximately 50 miles northwest of Adigrat, between October 30 and November 1.[1] The Critical Threats Project (CTP) was unable to confirm any of the unverified claims. The Ethiopian news outlet Wazema Radio and a pro-Fano account on X then reported clashes between Ethiopian federal forces and the TDF around Egela on November 2 and 3.[2] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) separately reported that the Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) was deploying troops from Adwa to Rama, which is approximately 20 miles to the north near the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, on November 5 and 6 amid the presence of TDF fighters in Rama.[3]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

The ENDF reportedly advanced northwest of Shire after capturing Sheraro. The military captured Sheraro, which is 60 miles northwest of Shire, on November 3 after approximately three weeks of attempts.[4] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and another open-source mapper reported that the ENDF also captured Adi Awala, which is approximately 20 miles northeast of Sheraro on the main road leading to the Eritrean border town of Badme, on November 3.[5]

Central Axis: Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum

Federal forces killed TDF commander Colonel Semere Teklu during operations around the A2 highway in Tigray’s city belt. The ENDF and TPF clashed with the TDF around Bizet—approximately 20 miles west of Adigrat—from November 1 to 3, and federal forces captured the head of the TDF’s Army 15 contingent, Colonel Haile Selassie Assefa.[6] Federal forces also killed Semere, who ACLED and Oromo activist Jawar Mohammed reported led the TDF’s Army 92 contingent.[7]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Northern Amhara Sector: From B22 Northward

The ENDF and Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) continued clashing around the A2 highway between Dessie and Woldia. The AFNM had reportedly captured Wuchale, which is on the A2 approximately 35 miles south of Woldia, on November 2.[8] The two sides continued fighting around Wuchale from November 3 to 4.[9] The ENDF reportedly retook Wuchale and nearby Girana, which the AFNM had captured on October 24, on November 3 and 4, respectively.[10] The Ethiopian Conflict Map also reported that the two sides clashed in Lipso, which is approximately 30 miles south of Woldia, on November 4.[11]

Figure 2. AFNM Targets Federal Supply Lines in Amhara

Note: AFNM stands for Amhara Fano National Movement. ENDF stands for Ethiopian National Defense Force. TPLF stands for Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Source: Liam Karr; Michael; DeAngelo; Alexander Brown; Armed Conflict Location & Event Data.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Nothing significant to report.

Major Domestic Political Developments

The interim Tigray regional government created a new administrative zone out of the Kola Tembien district. The interim regional government appointed a zonal administrator and made the new zone effective as of November 2.[12] Wazema Radio reported that it is unclear whether the new zone will also include other districts.[13]

The ENDF ordered a curfew, among other measures, to secure Mekele. The military announced on November 5 that it would implement a nighttime curfew in response to criminal activity in Mekele.[14] The ENDF declared the TPLF responsible for the criminal activity due to the rebel group’s alleged prison releases before its withdrawal from Mekele.[15] The military also ordered city residents to turn in unlicensed firearms by November 8 and announced that it would conduct daytime house-to-house searches.[16]

The federal government is overseeing a disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) process for former TDF fighters. Ethiopian National Rehabilitation Commission officials hosted United Nations (UN) and other diplomatic officials at a DDR facility in Mekele on November 5.[17] Ethiopian state media reported that 5,500 former TDF fighters are currently going through the DDR process at the facility.[18]

Regional and International Activity

Ethiopia and Sudan retaliated diplomatically against each other after Sudanese government accused Ethiopia of providing drone safe havens to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the Sudanese civil war. The Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs lodged formal complaints with the UN Security Council and African Union Peace and Security Council on November 1 that accused Ethiopia of allowing the RSF to launch drone attacks against Sudanese military-controlled territory from Ethiopian territory.[19] The Sudanese government also released a report alleging that the RSF had launched at 70 drone attacks from Ethiopian territory, including the Asosa and Bahir Dar airports, from February to October 2026.[20] Ethiopia then ordered the closure of the Sudanese consulate in Asosa, which is the capital of western Ethiopia’s Benishangul-Gumuz region, on November 4.[21] The Sudanese government responded by ordering the closure of the Ethiopian consulate in Gedaref, which is the capital of eastern Sudan’s Gedaref state.[22]

Two Chinese special envoys met with senior Ethiopian and Eritrean officials separately as part of a Chinese effort to mediate between the two countries. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun previously stated on October 27 that special envoys would travel to “regional countries” to promote “dialogue and deescalation.”[23] Chinese Ambassador to Ethiopia Chen Hai met with Ethiopian Minister of Defense Mohammed Idris on November 3 in advance of the envoy’s visit, and Mohammed told Chen that Ethiopian efforts to “protect its national interests” will positively impact regional and international security.[24] Chinese Special Envoy for African Affairs Liu Xianfa then met with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos on November 4.[25] The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on X that Gedion briefed Liu on the regional security situation and that Liu reaffirmed China’s “commitment” to promoting peace.[26] Chinese Special Envoy for Horn of Africa Affairs Hu Changchun separately met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki on November 5.[27] The Eritrean Ministry of Information stated that Isaias and Hu discussed “current developments” in the region and that Hu reiterated China’s support for “respecting Eritrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”[28]

The Chinese efforts come amid continued statements from Ethiopian and Eritrean officials accusing each other of aggression. Eritrean Permanent Representative to the UN Sophia Tesfamariam conditioned dialogue on Ethiopia renouncing “coercion, threats, and the use of force” aggression in an X post following her meeting with Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for the Horn of Africa Guang Cong on November 4.[29] Ethiopian State Minister of Foreign Affairs Hadera Abera accused Eritrea of “continued” incursions and support for Ethiopian rebel groups in a meeting with a European Union delegation on November 5.[30]