Iran Update, July 11, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP)  at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

The operator of the Liberian-flagged Eternity C told the Wall Street Journal on July 10 that the British Navy and the European Union (EU) naval task force did not have ships near the Eternity C to protect it from a Houthi attack on July 7.[i] The Houthis have conducted two complex attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea in recent days, sinking both ships. The Houthis attacked the Magic Seas and Eternity C on July 6 and 7, respectively, using small arms, rocket-propelled grenades, and unmanned surface vessels.[ii] The Houthis reportedly also used anti-ship missiles to attack the Eternity C.[iii] The Houthis launched the small arms, rocket-propelled grenades, and unmanned surface vessels from small attack craft. Ocean swells can hide small attack craft on radars, making them difficult to detect. The large geographic area of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden that the British Navy and the EU naval task force patrol imposes constraints on the navies’ ability to respond to crises. A senior US official told the Wall Street Journal on July 10 that international efforts to protect shipping in the Red Sea have become “less robust” as fewer navies conducting patrols in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have the capabilities to counter Houthi attacks.[iv]

Former Iranian Prime Minister and a key leader of the 2009 Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi, called on July 11 for a referendum to establish a constitutional assembly in Iran.[v] Mousavi framed a referendum as the only way to “save” Iran and warned that public solidarity during the Israel-Iran War should not be mistaken for “approval of the government.”[vi] Mousavi described the war as “the bitter result of a series of grave errors” and said that the current governance system does not represent all Iranians, echoing his February 2023 demand for a referendum and new constitution.[vii] Mousavi called for a referendum in February 2023 on whether to maintain the Islamic Republic and proposed drafting a new constitution.[viii] Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected calls for a referendum in April 2023, likely in response to Mousavi and other reformist officials’ calls for a referendum.[ix] Khamenei warned that such calls risked “polarization and instability.”[x]

Key Takeaways

1. The British Navy and the European Union (EU) naval task force were unable to protect two merchant vessels from recent Houthi attacks. Ocean swells can hide small attack craft on radars, making them difficult to detect. The large geographic area of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden that the British Navy and the EU naval task force patrol imposes constraints on the navies’ ability to respond to crises.
2. Iran has reportedly asked the United States for support to develop a peaceful nuclear program, which is likely part of a continued Iranian effort to maintain domestic uranium enrichment. Iran reportedly seeks to secure sanctions relief and US assistance with a civilian nuclear program. In exchange, the United States is demanding that Iran remove remaining enriched nuclear material and enrichment equipment, limit its missile program, and halt support for the Axis of Resistance.
3. The Israel-Iran War has exacerbated pre-existing fissures between reformists and hardliners in the Iranian regime over how to engage the West. A group of 180 Iranian reformists signed a letter urging President Masoud Pezeshkian to pursue negotiations with the United States and Europe to prevent renewed conflict. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated Fars News rejected the statement on July 11 as “politically naive” and a “repetition of failed strategies.”

Iran

Iran has reportedly asked the United States for support to develop a peaceful nuclear program, which is likely part of a continued Iranian effort to maintain domestic uranium enrichment. An unspecified senior White House official told the Wall Street Journal on July 10 that Iran seeks to secure sanctions relief and US assistance with a civilian nuclear program.[xi] Iran would likely seek for a US-supported civilian nuclear program to involve uranium enrichment on Iranian soil given that Iran has not changed its position on the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told French media on July 10, for example, that enrichment is Iran's "right and need."[xii] The United States sought before the Israel-Iran War to establish a regional nuclear consortium outside of Iran that would provide Iran with uranium for civilian nuclear purposes but would not allow enrichment on Iranian soil.[xiii] Iranian officials stated that Iran was open to the consortium model, but only if the consortium's enrichment facility was located in Iran.[xiv] Iran would similarly likely only accept US assistance with its nuclear program if the United States allows Iran to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil.  

The senior White House official said that US demands require Iran to remove remaining nuclear material and enrichment infrastructure, accept strict limits on its missile program, and halt support for the Axis of Resistance.[xv] Iran would also need to resume cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and agree to on-demand inspections of its nuclear facilities.[xvi] Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected such demands.[xvii]

The Israel-Iran War has exacerbated pre-existing fissures between reformists and hardliners in the Iranian regime over how to engage the West. A group of 180 reformist-leaning academics, economists, and officials from former President Hassan Rouhani’s administration issued a statement on July 9 that framed the war as a “costly reminder” of governance failures.[xviii] The statement urged President Masoud Pezeshkian to pursue negotiations with the United States and Europe to prevent renewed conflict and “preserve Iran’s territorial integrity.”[xix] The signatories warned that hardliners are fueling enmity and that conflict would have “disastrous consequences” on Iran.[xx] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated Fars News rejected the statement on July 11 as “politically naive” and a “repetition of failed strategies.”[xxi] Fars News claimed that the statement presented a “false dichotomy of negotiation or war.”[xxii] Fars News cited the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as evidence that the United States is “untrustworthy” and that diplomacy leads to one-sided concessions.[xxiii]

Iranian Artesh Commander Major General Amir Hatami, Artesh Air Force Commander Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi, and Deputy Artesh Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari inspected the Artesh Air Force 1st Tactical Airbase (TAB) in Tehran Province on July 11 to assess combat readiness.[xxiv] The airbase is co-located at Mehrabad International Airport.[xxv] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targeted the airbase on June 15 and 16.[xxvi] The IDF destroyed two Iranian F-14 Tomcats at the airport and likely targeted the Iran Helicopter Support and Renewal Company (PANHA) on June 16.[xxvii] Vahedi inspected the 8th TAB in Esfahan Province and 4th TAB in Khuzestan Province on July 7 following Israeli strikes on these bases during the Israel-Iran War.[xxviii]

Iranian parliamentarians proposed a bill on July 11 to allocate more funding to Iranian security forces after the Israel-Iran War.[xxix] An Iranian parliamentarian stated on July 11 that 116 lawmakers signed a bill that would require the government to pay the entire defense budget for the current Persian calendar year (March 2025 to March 2026) in addition to unpaid previous defense allocations and oil revenues.[xxx] The bill would also require the Iranian Central Bank to liquidate up to 2 billion Euros from “unfrozen foreign assets” or the National Development Fund for “emergency defense projects.”[xxxi] Israeli strikes during the 12-day war destroyed key Iranian military and defense industrial sites, including bases, production facilities, and storage facilities. CTP-ISW has not observed indications that Iranian security forces have developed or presented a coherent plan for rebuilding or modernizing their forces in the wake of the war. It is therefore unclear how Iran plans to allocate these funds.

Syria

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) held a symbolic arms-burning ceremony at the Jasana Cave in Iraqi Kurdistan on July 11 to mark the start of its disarmament process.[xxxii] Over 30 PKK fighters and leaders participated in the ceremony, while Turkish, Iraqi, and Kurdish officials observed it.[xxxiii] The participating PKK fighters stated that they voluntarily destroyed their weapons in response to PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan’s call to disarm.[xxxiv] Ocalan stated in February 2025 that ”all groups must lay [down] their arms” and called on PKK leaders to hold a conference to dissolve the PKK.[xxxv] The Turkish government said that the ceremony was a “concrete and welcomed” step.[xxxvi] Turkish officials previously signaled that they believe that Ocalan’s call to the PKK will pressure the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the Syrian government.[xxxvii] Turkey often conflates the SDF with the PKK and uses “PKK” to refer to the entire SDF. Syrian Kurds and SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi have consistently said that the PKK’s disarmament does not apply to Syria, however.[xxxviii]

Palestinian Territories and Lebanon

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun rejected Hezbollah’s insistence that it should retain its arms. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem called on July 8 for the implementation of the Taif Agreement, which Lebanese parliamentarians signed in 1989. The agreement sought to reform Lebanon’s political system and disarm all Lebanese militias except Hezbollah.[xxxix] The agreement also stated that Lebanon would ”tak[e] all the steps necessary to liberate all Lebanese territories from [Israel].”[xl] Hezbollah has long used continued Israeli operations in southern Lebanon and the Taif Agreement to justify retaining its weapons. Qassem argued in a separate statement on July 8 that Hezbollah cannot disarm because armed resistance is the core of Hezbollah’s identity and function.[xli] Aoun stated on July 11 that the Lebanese state’s decision to limit weapons to the state is “irreversible.”[xlii]  Aoun added that the decision to go to war, likely referring to war with Israel, would remain with the Lebanese state.[xliii]