Iran Update, July 6, 2025

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

Iran is targeting minorities for perceived disloyalty, which will almost certainly reinforce pre-existing anti-regime sentiment and could spark more unrest over time. British media reported on July 6 that armed Iranian “intelligence agents” have conducted dozens of coordinated raids across Iran targeting Bahai religious minority members.[i] Iranian authorities reportedly seized electronic devices, personal belongings, and religious material that is being treated as contraband.[ii] Bahai members have frequently been accused of espionage and anti-regime activities.[iii] Iran‘s aggressive targeting of minorities for perceived disloyalty may not act as the proximate trigger for major protests, but it will contribute to frustrations that could explode into mass protests after a salient event, as happened during the Mahsa Amini protests. The death of Mahsa Amini in police custody acted as the proximate cause for protests in Tehran that rapidly expanded to Kurdish areas of Iran in Fall 2022. The regime has long oppressed Iranian Kurds, but Mahsa Amini’s death acted as a salient event that caused unexpected unrest.[iv]

Iran has arrested over 700 individuals on espionage accusations since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[v] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as ”Mossad spies.”[vi]   Regime authorities, for example, arrested someone they called a Mossad ”associate” on July 6 for collecting information on military sites and attempting to send the information to ”hostile intelligence services.”[vii] First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli ”spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities.[viii] CTP-ISW assessed on June 27 that Iran’s concern about Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran may be used as justification for broader crackdowns on society.[ix]

Key Takeaways

• Iran is targeting minorities for perceived disloyalty, which will almost certainly reinforce pre-existing anti-regime sentiment and could spark more unrest over time. Iran‘s aggressive targeting of minorities for perceived disloyalty may not act as the proximate trigger for major protests, but it will contribute to frustrations that could explode into mass protests after a salient event, as happened during the Mahsa Amini protests.
• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since moving to a secure location on June 12 at the start of the Iran-Israel War.
• Likely Houthi fighters attacked a Liberian-flagged ship off the coast of Hudaydah, Yemen, on July 6.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since moving to a secure location on June 12. He attended a public religious ceremony for the Shia festival of Ashura at Imam Khomeini Hosseinyeh Mosque in Tehran on July 5.[x] Ashura is an important Shia religious holiday that mourns the Prophet Mohammad’s grandson, Imam Hossein.[xi] It would be very significant if Khamenei did not attend the ceremony, and there is much less risk that Israel would attempt to kill Khamenei due to the ceasefire. Khamenei stated that Iran will “never surrender" to Israel during the ceremony, which is consistent with post-war Iranian messaging.[xii]

An internet monitoring group has reported “major disruptions” to internet connectivity across Iran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 5.[xiii] An Iranian OSINT analyst reported that the internet disruptions began after Supreme Leader Khamenei appeared in public for the first time since the start of the Israel-Iran War.[xiv]

The Houthis launched a ballistic missile targeting Ben Gurion Airport in central Israel on July 5.[xv] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intercepted the missile before it entered Israeli airspace.[xvi] The Houthis have launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles targeting Israel since the Houthis began their campaign to enforce an economic blockade on Israel in November 2023.[xvii]

Likely Houthi fighters attacked a Liberian-flagged ship off the coast of Hudaydah, Yemen, on July 6.[xviii] The vessel‘s crew said that the vessel has an armed guard aboard, according to commercially available maritime tracking information.[xix] The Houthis have not claimed the attack at the time of this writing, which could suggest that Houthi commanders did not authorize this attack. Houthi media is publicizing the attack, however.[xx] Fighters on eight small vessels reportedly fired small arms, rocket-propelled grenades, and naval drones at the vessel, which caused a fire onboard.[xxi] A maritime security company reported that at least two one-way attack naval surface drones collided with the ship.[xxii] Armed security aboard the vessel returned fire at the likely Houthi fighters.[xxiii] The ship is reportedly immobile, and the crew has abandoned the vessel.[xxiv] The Houthis have not attacked a merchant vessel in the Red Sea since November 2024, though they have attacked US Navy warships.[xxv]