Iran Update, July 12, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The  Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

We will publish an abbreviated Iran Update on July 12 and 13. The abbreviated update will cover updates to nuclear negotiations and information about the status of Iran’s nuclear program, military, and political scene after the Israel-Iran War. We will resume our full coverage of the entire region on July 14.

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Nuclear Program: Iranian personnel have not made any visible attempts to access the underground areas of the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) and Natanz Enrichment Complex as of July 9. The process to repair the ENTC’s facilities is “lengthy and complicated” due to the collapsed tunnel entrances and the need to check ENTC’s aboveground facilities for radiation hazards, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.
• Iran-Russia Relations: Axios reported on July 12 that Russia has encouraged Iran to accept zero uranium enrichment demands while offering to provide Iran with 3.67 percent uranium for nuclear power and small quantities of 20 percent enriched uranium for the Tehran Research Reactor and the production of nuclear isotopes. Iran is unlikely to accept a proposal that requires Iran to halt domestic uranium enrichment.

Iranian personnel have not made any visible attempts to access the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) or Natanz Enrichment Complex, according to satellite imagery originally published on July 9. The lack of access means that Iranian officials cannot assess the extent of the damage to the underground facilities at ENTC and Natanz with accuracy. Iranian personnel have not made visible efforts to rebuild or remove rubble from destroyed aboveground facilities at ENTC.[i] The Institute for Science and International Security (the Institute) reported that it will take Iran time to begin rebuilding the ENTC‘s aboveground facilities, which house the destroyed uranium conversion facility and uranium metal production plant, because the bombing dispersed radiological and chemical material. The dispersion of this material will require Iran to deploy hazardous material (HAZMAT) teams first. Then Iran will need to remove rubble before any large-scale reconstruction could take place. The combination of the HAZMAT requirements and the removal of debris is a “lengthy and complicated“ process that will take Iran “some time“ to complete, according to the Institute.  

It will also take time for Iran to access ENTC’s underground facilities because it has not delivered any excavation equipment or heavy machinery to the site.[ii] The Institute reported that Iran would need to use machinery to remove approximately 20 meters of rubble and backfill from tunnel entrances to access the underground facilities located at the complex.[iii]

The Institute reported that satellite imagery captured through July 8 showed that Iranian personnel have not made any visible attempts to access the underground portions of the Natanz nuclear facility.[iv] CTP-ISW previously reported that commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 showed that Iran has filled in a crater above the enrichment hall caused by the June 21 US strike.[v] Satellite imagery captured on June 8 showed that Iran has placed a cover on the point.[vi]

Russia has reportedly encouraged Iran to accept zero uranium enrichment demands while offering to provide Iran with 3.67 percent uranium for nuclear power and small quantities of 20 percent enriched uranium for the Tehran Research Reactor and the production of nuclear isotopes.[vii] Iran is unlikely to accept a proposal that requires Iran to halt domestic uranium enrichment.[viii] Three European officials and one Israeli official told Axios on July 12 that Russia has encouraged Iran to agree to “zero enrichment” and conveyed its support for such a demand several times in the last few weeks.[ix] Senior Russian officials have previously stated that Iran has the right to possess the "full nuclear fuel cycle," including uranium enrichment capabilities.[x] Russia has recently offered to support a civilian nuclear program in Iran.[xi] Iran reportedly told Putin that it will not consider zero uranium enrichment demands.[xii] Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected US demands for Iran to halt domestic uranium enrichment. Iran previously rejected a US proposal to establish a regional consortium outside of Iran that would provide Iran with uranium for civilian nuclear purposes but would not allow enrichment on Iranian soil.[xiii] Iranian officials stated that Iran was open to the consortium model, but only if the consortium’s enrichment facility was in Iran.[xiv]