Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from March 28 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Iran and Russia underscored the strategic convergence of their shared regional and global interests in a joint statement released during President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to Moscow.
Iranian and Russian delegations released the statement, titled “Moving Towards Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation,” following Rouhani’s visit with President Vladimir Putin on March 28. The two sides emphasized their shared views on Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, the nuclear deal, sanctions, and the global energy market in the statement.
Citations & Links
Accusations of corruption may hinder the Hadi government’s force generation capabilities.
A commander in Sa’ada governorate, northern Yemen, accused his superior, the commander of the Fourth Brigade, of embezzling fighters’ salaries. This accusation may inflame tensions between the Hadi government and southern Yemeni fighters deployed in the north who have not received their salaries in over six months. The Fourth Brigade commander, Brig. Gen. Mehran Qabati, is a northerner with connections to Yemeni Vice President Ali Mohsen al Ahmar, a frequent target of southern criticism. Hadi government forces may suffer from mass desertions if fighters are not paid.
Citations & Links
Al Shabaab militants ambushed Ethiopian AMISOM forces in central Somalia in an effort to accelerate the withdrawal of AMISOM forces and deter Ethiopia from deploying additional forces.
Al Shabaab militants ambushed Ethiopian AMISOM convoys as they withdrew from several towns in Galgudud region in central Somalia on March 27 and 28. The attacks occurred in five separate locations along the road between Elbur and Dhusamareb towns, approximately 235 miles northeast of Mogadishu. Al Shabaab will move quickly to capitalize on the security vacuum and consolidate control of terrain in the region. (Related reading: Ethiopian AMISOM Withdrawals)
Citations & Links
Competition for control over Libya’s oil infrastructure will further weaken the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).
The GNA’s Presidency Council attempted to establish power over Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), a powerful body which controls Libya’s oil exports and has aligned with the GNA throughout the past year. NOC chairman Mustafa Sanalla rejected the GNA’s decree and stated that only the Libyan National Army (LNA)-aligned House of Representatives has the power to make the requisite changes. Sanalla’s comments reflect the NOC’s pivot toward the LNA, which controls the bulk of Libya’s oil infrastructure. The GNA will lack any significant funding with which to pursue its agenda if it cannot access oil revenues through the NOC.(Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)
