Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from April 13 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Al Qaeda- and ISIS-linked groups compete for influence over ethnically Fulani Salafi-jihadi militants in Burkina Faso.
Al Qaeda remains the dominant Salafi-jihadi group in the Sahel region, though rumors about groups possibly defecting to ISIS persist. Malam Ibrahim Dicko, emir of the Burkinabe Salafi-jihadi group Ansar al Islam, reportedly intends to form an alliance with the ISIS in the Greater Sahara group led by Adnan Abu Walid al Sahrawi. This rumor has proved to be false in the past. Al Qaeda-affiliated social media outlets criticized ISIS’s attempts to influence jihad in Burkina Faso.
Citations & Links
Al Shabaab will conduct attacks in Kenya to drive Kenyan popular support for the end of the Kenyan intervention in Somalia.
Kenyan security forces warned that at least nine suspected Kenyan al Shabaab militants are attempting to reenter the country to carry out attacks. Kenyan security officials warned that al Shabaab may target Christians celebrating the Easter holiday. This threat follows the pattern set by al Shabaab after Kenya launched Operation Linda Nchi, an offensive operation against al Shabaab in southern Somalia that lasted from October 2011 to March 2012. Al Shabaab conducted a series of attacks in Kenya in retaliation for Operation Linda Nchi, including the Westgate shopping mall attack in Nairobi in September 2013.
Citations & Links
Emirati-backed security forces in Yemen risk losing public support because of their harsh tactics.
Violent demonstrations erupted in Aden’s Khormaksar district when protesters demanded the release of men held on charges of terrorism. Civilians in areas under Hadi government control frequently express frustration with arbitrary detentions and unfair trials. These critiques reinforce the al Qaeda recruitment narrative that Emirati-backed security forces are foreign entities paid to abuse innocent Muslims. (Related reading: Yemen Crisis Situation Report)
Citations & Links
Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar may downplay Russia’s role in Libya in an attempt to gain U.S. support.
Haftar stated that the LNA and Russia are not currently discussing the establishment of Russian military bases in Libya and added that Russia has no need to establish a base in Libya due to its strong presence on the Mediterranean. Haftar reportedly signed an agreement allowing the construction of two military bases in eastern Libya in January 2017. Haftar is messaging his strength and independence to present himself as a viable U.S. partner capable of stabilizing Libya and fighting Salafi-jihadi groups. Haftar’s pursuit of a military solution in Libya is causing increased fragmentation and conflict, however. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)
