Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from April 17 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) negotiated with Yemeni tribes to retain its safe havens and promised not to conduct external operations from Yemen.
AQAP reached an agreement with Yemeni tribal leaders in which AQAP promised to focus on the local fight in order to prevent counter-terrorism operations in Yemen, according to the Norwegian publication VG. This agreement, if confirmed, may hinder potential Hadi government efforts to mobilize tribal militias against AQAP. (Related reading: AQAP Expanding behind Yemen's Frontlines)
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Al Shabaab threatens Western and international humanitarian organization operations in Somalia.
Al Shabaab militants ambushed a convoy of UN World Food Programme (WFP) workers on the outskirts of Mogadishu on April 16. The group also kidnapped four World Health Organization (WHO) workers in Gedo region, southwestern Somalia, on April 4. Al Shabaab concurrently delivers food and water aid to drought-stricken populations throughout much of central and southern Somalia. This approach marks a shift from al Shabaab’s policy during the 2011 famine, when the group blocked aid delivery and incurred popular backlash. (Related reading: Al Shabaab’s History with Humanitarian Assistance)
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The exit of two prominent conservative candidates from Iran’s presidential race may create a more challenging election for moderate President Hassan Rouhani.
Former nuclear negotiator Said Jalili and former Parliamentarian Mehrdad Bazrpash both announced they will not run in the May 19 presidential elections. If the Guardian Council had allowed Jalili to run, he could have split the conservative vote in the elections. Jalili was affiliated with the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces, the conservative coalition dedicated to producing a single conservative challenger to Rouhani. Jalili later rejected the Popular Front, and could have complicated the group’s efforts to unify. Bazrpash was a finalist to represent the Popular Front. His dropping out likely simplifies the group’s efforts to choose between the remaining four finalists.
Sitting First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri, meanwhile, downplayed the notion that his presidential run is threatening President Rouhani’s efforts at re-election.
Jahangiri stressed that his run is “complementary” to Rouhani and noted that it is unlikely the Guardian Council will disqualify Rouhani. Jahangiri’s entry into the race does not mean that he intends to threaten Rouhani. Senior reformist politician Mohammad Reza Aref stated that Jahangiri’s entry into the race was designed to ensure conservatives do not besiege Rouhani during the election process.
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Corruption within the Nigerian government deprives security forces of necessary funds and undermining public confidence in efforts to combat the Boko Haram insurgency.
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A growing number of militias are participating in escalating conflict in southwestern Libya.
The Libyan National Guard (LNG), a majority Islamist militia coalition that formed in opposition to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), announced that it will join the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB) and the Misratan Third Force in the fight against the Libyan National Army (LNA) in southern Libya. Forces affiliated with the GNA’s Ministry of Defense also support the Misratan Third Force against the orders of the GNA’s Presidency Council. Libyan tribes may be attempting to mediate the conflict. The tribes' success would indicate that the influence of coastal militias lessens as they operate in Libya’s interior.
