Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from April 19 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
A Pakistani brigade to deploy to protect Saudi Arabia's southern border may reflect the high-cost of continued cross-border attacks on domestic opinion inside the Kingdom.
Al Houthi-Saleh attacks in southern Saudi Arabia are under-reported in the media, obscuring the number of Saudi casualties. Saudi Arabia requested Pakistani military assistance in 2015, but the Pakistani Parliament rejected the request. Pakistani army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa met with Saudi defense officials in late 2016 and early 2017, and Pakistan approved its former army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif to head the Saudi Arabia-led Islamic Military Alliance in early April. (Related reading: How the U.S. Should Re-Engage in Yemen)
Citations & Links
Al Shabaab attacks international aid organizations to usurp the role of humanitarian provider and build popular support.
Suspected al Shabaab militants targeted Somali and Emirati aid officials with an improvised explosive device (IED) near Mogadishu on April 19. The group also ambushed a convoy of UN World Food Programme (WFP) workers on the outskirts of Mogadishu on April 16. Al Shabaab concurrently delivers food and water aid to drought-stricken populations throughout much of central and southern Somalia. This approach marks a shift from al Shabaab’s policy during the 2011 famine, when the group blocked aid delivery and incurred popular backlash. (Related reading: Al Shabaab’s History with Humanitarian Assistance)
Citations & Links
Libyan House of Representatives (HoR) leadership expressed willingness to participate in the UN political process after blocking the dialogue for more than a year.
A fraction of the HoR elected 24 members to participate in the talks to amend the UN-brokered Libyan Political Agreement (LPA). The HoR has boycotted the LPA talks to avoid legitimizing the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). The HoR’s participation may be related to Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar’s recent meeting with UNSMIL head Martin Kobler. Haftar seeks international legitimacy for his campaign to take control of Libya militarily.
Citations & Links
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces a corruption scandal that could lead to his removal from power.
The Pakistani Supreme Court will rule on April 20 to determine if Sharif is guilty of corruption related to offshore accounts revealed by the Panama Papers scandal. The Pakistani Supreme Court agreed to take the case after Imran Khan, the leader of the Islamist Pakistan Tehrik-e-Inshaf (PTI) opposition party, organized protests against Sharif. Sharif’s disqualification would force the ruling Pakistan Muslim League to nominate a new candidate for Prime Minister. The Pakistani Supreme Court ousted a prior prime minister in 2012.
