Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: June 27, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The United States brokered a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on the outskirts of Bukavu in South Kivu. M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters south of Bukavu in Walungu district. France plans to host an international humanitarian conference on the DRC and invite the Congolese and Rwandan presidents.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on the outskirts of Bukavu in South Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendos in the Cirunga group in Kabare district—roughly six miles west of Bukavu—on June 26.[i] Wazalendo fighters have clashed with M23 on the outskirts of Bukavu since mid-June.[ii]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters south of Bukavu in Walungu district. The Congolese media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in Cagala village on June 26.[iii] Cagala is about 2 miles from Walungu town on a local road and 21 miles southwest of Bukavu on the RN2 in Walungu district.

Major Political Developments

The United States brokered a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe to sign the agreement in Washington, DC, on June 27.[iv] The peace agreement builds on efforts by the United States and Qatar in the last several months. Qatar brokered a ceasefire between the DRC and Rwanda in mid-March 2025 that laid the groundwork for dialogue before the United States took lead.[v] The DRC and Rwanda have worked to finalize the text of the US-brokered agreement since the two sides signed a declaration of principles agreement under US mediation in late April.[vi] A heads of state signing ceremony with US President Donald Trump, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi, and Rwandan President Paul Kagame is tentatively scheduled for July in Washington, DC.[vii]

The peace deal includes a regional economic framework that aims to spur economic growth and facilitate US and regional investment in the DRC and Rwanda. The economic aspects of the deal focus on US investment in the upstream and midstream aspects of each country’s critical mineral supply chains.[viii] The French investigate outlet Africa Intelligence reported in late May that Tshisekedi offered the United States a mineral deal worth $3 trillion.[ix] The agreement also includes US investment and cooperation between the three countries in sectors such as national park management and hydroelectric power in the region.[x]

France plans to host an international humanitarian conference on the situation in the DRC in late July. Africa Intelligence reported that French President Emmanuel Macron seeks to host international organizations and African countries, including Tshisekedi and Kagame, for a humanitarian summit on July 25.[xi]