Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: June 16, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The US-brokered peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda is not expected to be signed until July. Congolese authorities arrested a militia group leader who was reportedly allied to M23 in North Kivu. M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on the outskirts of Bukavu in South Kivu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Congolese authorities arrested a militia group leader who was reportedly allied to M23 in North Kivu. The Congolese news outlet La Prunelle RDC reported that Congolese authorities arrested General Kabido, the leader of the Force des Patriotes pour la Paix/Armée du Peuple (FPP-AP), in Butembo town in North Kivu on June 12.[i] Congolese authorities transferred Kabido to Kinshasa, the DRC capital, to “answer for his actions before the Congolese courts.”[ii] FPP-AP primarily operates in Lubero district and reportedly had up to 2,000 fighters as of March 2025.[iii] FPP-AP reportedly defected to M23 in March after M23 threatened the group’s control over lucrative gold mines in Lubero district.[iv]  Congolese media previously reported that FPP-AP’s defection to M23 was a “major blow” to the Congolese army’s ability to contain M23 on the northern front.[v] La Prunelle RDC cited locals in Rutshuru district who claimed that FPP-AP “facilitated M23’s progress” in several localities in Rutshuru and in the adjacent southern area of Lubero district.[vi]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on the outskirts of Bukavu in South Kivu. Congolese media sources reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in Kagabi and Bushwira villages in Kabare district on June 14 and June 15.[vii] Kagabi is located about 10 miles west of Bukavu.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The US-brokered peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda is not expected to be signed until July. Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said on social media on June 14 that the initial target date for the deal in mid-June would not be met and that the timeline “had to be adapted to the reality of the negotiations.”[viii] Discussions between technical delegations from the DRC and Rwanda in Washington DC are ongoing.[ix] Nduhungirehe said that the experts were just “now getting started.”[x] Nduhungirehe said that Rwanda hopes to achieve a “realistic and win-win peace agreement” which will be reviewed by foreign ministers from all parties once the preliminary agreement among technical experts is reached.[xi] Nduhungirehe’s statement is  loosely consistent with previously reported expectations of U.S. officials who aim to finalize the agreement by late June or July.[xii]