Congo War Security Review

*CTP will be pausing the Congo War Security Review for Independence Day in the United States on July 4. The next Congo War Security Review will publish as usual on July 7.*

Data Cutoff: July 2, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The DRC and Rwandan foreign ministers gave conflicting timelines of the joint concept of operations plan. DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner said that the DRC is aiming to seal a peace deal with M23 before a heads of state summit in July. Reuters leaked a UN report that claimed Rwanda still exerted control over M23 in early 2025. M23 conducted a clearing operation against suspected pro-Congolese government fighters in Sake in North Kivu.

Significant Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

M23 conducted a clearing operation against suspected pro-Congolese government fighters in Sake in North Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 conducted the operation in several neighborhoods in Sake and arrested close to 20 suspected pro-Congolese government fighters on July 1.[i] M23 reportedly transferred the suspected fighters to Goma for “in-depth investigations.”[ii] The Congolese news outlet Radio Okapi said that M23 has conducted four clearing operations and arrested nearly 80 suspected DRC government sympathizers in the Sake area since mid-June.[iii]

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack in Walikale district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 attacked Wazalendo positions in a remote village in Kisimba group in Walikale on July 1.[iv] The outlet reported separately that Wazalendos kidnapped two M23 “commanders” in the nearby Ikoko group in Walikale on June 30.[v] M23 conducted an unsuccessful search operation in the bush to locate the abducted commanders.[vi]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC and Rwandan foreign ministers gave conflicting timelines of the implementation of the joint concept of operations plan (CONOP). Rwandan Foreign Minister Oliver Nduhungirehe said that Rwanda will withdraw its troops only after the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) is eradicated in an interview with the French magazine Jeune Afrique on June 28.[vii] Nduhungirehe said that CONOP “clearly states” that FDLR’s liquidation will “pave the way” for Rwanda’s withdrawal.[viii] The Congolese Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner said that the two measures “must be done concurrently,” however.[ix] Wagner said that the “first component” of the CONOP is Rwanda’s withdrawal and that the second is FDLR’s eradication.[x] The CONOP published by the US State Department lists Rwanda’s withdrawal from the eastern DRC in sequence after the FDLR’s neutralization in the second overall phase of the plan.[xi]

Wagner said that the DRC is aiming to seal a peace deal with M23 before a heads of state summit in July. Wagner told Bloomberg on June 30 that the DRC wants a deal with M23 before DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, this month.[xii] The outlet said that any agreement would not stipulate that M23 “necessarily needs to withdraw” but that a deal would allow the DRC to bring “something tangible” to the summit.[xiii]

Reuters leaked a UN report that claimed Rwanda still exerted control over M23 in early 2025. The UN report said that Rwanda maintained operational authority over M23 “on whether to seize, hold, or relinquish territory” in the reporting period from early 2025 to late April.[xiv] The UN report claimed that Rwanda’s main objective in backing M23 was not mainly to address the FDLR threat but to “conquer additional territories” in the eastern DRC.[xv] The report said that Rwanda continued to provide training and substantial military support to M23, including sophisticated air defense systems, that gave M23 a “decisive tactical advantage” over pro-Congolese government forces.[xvi] Reuters reported that the report claimed that Rwanda deployed at least 6,000 troops on Congolese soil before M23 conducted its sweeping offensive in early 2025.[xvii] The UN estimated that 1,000 to 1,500 Rwandan troops were still deployed in M23-controlled territory when the reporting period ended in late April.[xviii] A Rwandan spokesperson told Reuters that the report “misrepresents Rwanda’s longstanding security concerns” regarding FDLR and its decision to deploy troops.[xix]