Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: July 25, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The United States is set to reach an economic deal with the DRC as early as late August. M23 said that it will not withdraw from occupied areas and set conditions for future peace talks with the DRC government. M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters near the Masisi district capital in North Kivu. Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 in southern Masisi district.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters in the Bwito chiefdom in Rutshuru district. The Congolese media outlet Actualite reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in “several localities” in Bwito on July 24.[i] CTP is unable to verify the location of the localities. M23 has clashed regularly with Wazalendos and suspected Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) fighters in Bwito since mid-July when M23 launched an operation to recapture several areas.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters near the Masisi district capital in North Kivu. Actualite reported that M23 attacked Wazalendo fighters near Bukombo village, roughly seven miles northwest of Masisi town and four miles southeast of Nyabiondo, on the RP529 on July 25.[ii]

Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 in southern Masisi district. Congolese media reported that Wazalendos attacked M23 in Luke village on July 25.[iii] Luke is about 13 miles south of Masisi town and 14 miles west of Rubaya on local roads. M23 had captured Luke and a nearby village from Wazalendo fighters on July 23.[iv]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The United States is set to reach an economic deal with the DRC as early as late August. The French investigative outlet Africa Intelligence reported on July 24 that Congolese officials plan to visit Washington, DC, to continue negotiations on a bilateral economic agreement with the United States soon.[v] The outlet reported that US and Congolese officials plan to finalize the agreement around the same time that a signing ceremony for the peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda takes place in Washington in late August or early September.[vi]

The DRC and Rwanda took measures to facilitate the repatriation of refugees in line with the US-brokered peace agreement. Representatives from the DRC, Rwanda, and the UN signed a joint statement committing to the voluntary repatriation of refugees on July 24.[vii] The DRC and Rwanda committed to accelerate the repatriation of 600 Rwandan refugees as part of the agreement.[viii]

M23 said that it will not withdraw from occupied areas and set conditions for future peace talks with the DRC government. M23 officials held a press conference in Goma to debrief the Qatari-brokered declaration agreement on July 25.[ix] M23 claimed that the ceasefire provision in the agreement mandates that each side withdraws at least three miles from their positions on the frontline.[x] M23 accused the DRC government of  “misleading communication” following the signing ceremony and said that it would regularly provide the media with alleged violations of the ceasefire by the DRC government.[xi]

M23 said that it has no plans to withdraw from occupied areas at the end of the talks.[xii] M23 conditioned the next stage of talks on the release and transfer of all M23 prisoners held by the DRC government to Goma.[xiii] M23 claimed that the DRC government had demanded that M23 withdraw from Lubero district in North Kivu in exchange for the release of M23 prisoners before the two sides signed the declaration agreement.[xiv]

M23 said that it aims to extend its administration to areas outside of the Kivu provinces. M23 claimed that the “restoration of state authority” provision in the declaration agreement means that M23 will extend its “security model” in occupied areas to the “entire national territory,” including to Kinshasa, the Congolese capital—over 1,000 miles away from the eastern DRC.[xv]M23 said that the “root causes” of the security crisis can only be addressed with a “new leadership [in the DRC government] made up of different political actors. ”[xvi] M23 claimed that federalism was a major part of the Qatari-mediated discussions and that it would continue to push federalism as the “best form of state that can make this country take off.”[xvii] M23 said that it will seek to integrate Congolese army soldiers into M23’s ranks in areas that it occupies as part of a peace agreement.[xviii] M23 also denounced the DRC government’s aggressive measures against former DRC President Joseph Kabila.[xix]

The DRC government formally opened a criminal trial against former DRC President Joseph Kabila. The Congolese army’s top military court initiated the hearings in Kinshasa without Kabila or a defense layer present on July 25.[xx] The DRC government had revoked Kabila’s immunity status as a former senator for life and accused Kabila of backing M23 and plotting to overthrow DRC President Félix Tshisekedi in May.[xxi]