Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: June 13, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The US-mediated agreement between the DRC and Rwanda is reportedly contingent on a Qatari-led DRC-M23 agreement and several other unresolved preconditions. M23 conducted clearing operations in Sake in North Kivu. The head of UN forces in the DRC arrived in North Kivu to meet with M23 officials for a three-day visit.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The US-mediated agreement between the DRC and Rwanda is reportedly contingent on a Qatari-led DRC-M23 agreement. The French state media outlet Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported on June 11 that the Qatari-mediated peace agreement between the DRC and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels must be finalized before the US-led agreement is signed.[i] Reuters cited sources from the DRC and M23 camps on June 12 who said that Qatar summoned their representatives for new talks this week after the two sides consulted their leaders.[ii] Reuters reported on June 12 that the talks in Qatar are viewed as a “complimentary track” aiming to address the security crisis in the eastern DRC.[iii] Qatar presented a draft proposal to the two sides after the talks were reportedly deadlocked due to non-starter demands made by both sides last week.[iv]

The US-mediated agreement is contingent on several other unresolved preconditions. RFI reported that the DRC must lift marital law in the eastern DRC, which has been in effect since May 2021, and take steps to restore civilian government as the second major condition to the deal.[v] Reuters confirmed previous reporting that the United States requires Rwanda to withdraw its estimated 5,000 troops and materiel from the eastern DRC for its part of the agreement earlier this week.[vi] RFI reported on June 11 that the draft agreement calls for both sides to “coordinate in good faith to identity, assess, and locate and terminate the existence of armed elements” of an ethnic Hutu group—Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR)—which is consistent with a previous plan under Angolan-mediated peace talks that collapsed in December 2024.[vii] The draft agreement requires that the DRC will “prohibit and intercept any material or financial support, national or foreign” for the FDLR.[viii]

M23 conducted clearing operations in Sake in North Kivu. The Congolese news outlet Radio Okapi reported that M23 arrested over 150 “young people” during operations in Sake on June 12.[ix] The outlet reported that M23 conducted the operations to “stabilize” Sake, which has experienced a recent uptick in crime.[x] M23 has conducted an arrest campaign against pro-Congolese government individuals in Sake and Goma since mid-May.[xi] CTP previously assessed that M23 likely aims to eliminate potential opposition to M23 control and address persistent insecurity as part of this campaign.[xii]  

The head of UN forces in the DRC, Bintou Keita, arrived in North Kivu to meet with M23 officials for a three-day visit.[xiii] Keita met with senior M23 officials, including Corneille Nangaa—head of M23’s political branch, Alliance Fleuve Congo—and Bertrand Bisimwa, M23’s president—in Goma to discuss its mandate and the security situation in the eastern DRC on June 13.[xiv] French state media reported that M23 aims to secure an agreement with UN forces that would “redefine its presence on the ground.”[xv] M23 has imposed restrictions on UN forces and accused the UN of aiding pro-Congolese government fighters in attacks on M23 positions in Goma and other M23-controlled areas since April.[xvi]