Ethiopia War Security Review

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 16 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 20 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

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Key Takeaway:

• Northern Axis. Ethiopian federal forces are reportedly redeploying southward from towns along the Eritrean border toward the Tigray city belt, including Adwa and Adigrat.
• Central Axis. Tigrayan rebel forces are continuing to attack federal supply lines to central Tigray, although Ethiopian federal forces have simultaneously increased pressure on Tigrayan rebel support zones in the mountainous interior of central Tigray with ground attacks and sustained air and drone strikes.
• Other Rebel Kinetic Activity. Ethiopian rebels in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions reportedly carried out their first notable attacks against Ethiopian federal forces since joining the Alliance for Survival rebel coalition.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front warned the Ethiopian federal government against using airports for military purposes and threatened to shoot down Ethiopian Airlines planes carrying suspected military equipment and personnel.
• Regional and International Activity. Top Russian and US officials separately underscored their desire to mediate and deescalate tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and urged both neighbors to show restraint.

Figure 1. ENDF and TDF Battle for the Tigray Interior

Source: Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo; Alexander Brown and Ziv Zellars.

Northern Axis: Mekele-Adigrat-Adwa

Ethiopian federal forces are reportedly redeploying southward from towns along the Eritrean border toward the Tigray city belt, including Adwa and Adigrat. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and pro-Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) sources reported on October 17 and 19, respectively, that the Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Forces, ENDF) has withdrawn south from several areas near the Eritrean border, including Zalambessa, 24 miles north of Adigrat, and Rama, 23 miles north of Adwa.[i] There has been no reported fighting in the towns and it is unclear if TDF forces have since reentered these areas. Independent analyst and reporter Sajid Nadeem reported on October 16 that ENDF military convoys coming from the direction of Koneba, Afar region entered Tigray traveling toward Atsbi, which is 10 miles east of the A2 and 30 to 35 miles southeast and northeast from Adirgrat and Mekele, respectively.[ii]

Ethiopian outlet Wazema Radio reported on October 16 that Eritrean troops are working directly alongside the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the TPLF’s military wing—to dig trenches in the border area. Open-source analyst The Ethiopian Conflict Map separately reported on October 20 that Eritrean forces were digging trenches south of Gundet, which is 12 miles north of Rama.[iii] Agence France-Presse cited locals who claimed that Eritrean soldiers remained stationed in some Ethiopian border areas in an October 18 report.[iv]

Central Axis: Sekota-Yechila-Abiy Addi-Adwa-Axum-Rama

The TDF is continuing to attack ENDF supply lines to central Tigray. Pro-TPLF media claimed that TDF troops ambushed and destroyed an ENDF convoy traveling towards Samre from Mekele in the vicinity of Dengolat, 19 miles southwest of Mekele, on October 16.[v] Another pro-TPLF source and several others reported that the TDF was contesting Hagare Selam, 33 miles northwest of Mekele along the C23 Mekele-Adwa highway, as of October 18, and that ENDF drone strikes were reported south of the town on the same day.[vi] Ethiopia War Map recorded that the TDF had reentered to Abergele, which is roughly 20 miles southwest of Samre on October 19, although federal forces were still contesting control of the town.[vii] The ENDF had captured the village in the opening week of its counteroffensive in late September as it advanced northeast toward Mekele along the Sekota-Mekele Road. CTP reported in the October 16 EWSR that the TDF had launched several counterattacks further north along the C23 and D23 roads leading to central Tigray between Abergele and Werkamba.[viii]

Ethiopian federal forces have simultaneously increased pressure on the TDF’s support zones in the mountainous interior of central Tigray with ground attacks and sustained air and drone strikes. The Ethiopian Conflict Map and ACLED reported fighting between the ENDF and TDF in Zana town, approximately 25 miles southeast of Shire, and the surrounding district between October 17 and 19.[ix] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported that TDF retained control over Zana, as of October 18.[x] ACLED and Sajid Nadeem reported fighting between the ENDF and TDF occurred in Semema town, 52 miles south of Axum, on October 18, which included at least seven ENDF drone strikes targeting TDF vehicles.[xi] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and reported that the ENDF had shelled and launch drone strikes targeting areas north of the B30, including Chila and mountains areas west of Rama on October 17 and Simemma on October 18.[xii]  ENDF forces also pushed further west from Adigrat and took Bizet and Inticho on October 20 following lengthy clashes.[xiii]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

Nothing significant to report.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Ethiopian rebels in the Benishangul Gumuz and Oromia regions reportedly carried out their first notable attacks against ENDF forces since joining the Alliance for Survival with the TPLF and Amhara National Fano Movement. Sajid Nadeem reported that Oromo Liberation Army forces attacked ENDF forces in Batu, East Shewa zone of the Oromia region between October 18 and 19, but that ENDF forces repelled the militants using drones.[xiv] The Gumuz People’s Democratic Movement reportedly claimed to attack ENDF forces in Dangur and Metekel.[xv] CTP cannot verify the claim, although Tsedale Lemma, the head of Ethiopian news outlet Addis Standard, said that attacks in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions were going underreported during an event at the Atlantic Council on October 16.[xvi]

Major Domestic Political Developments

The TPLF has warned the Ethiopian federal government against using airports for military purposes and threatened to shoot down Ethiopian Airlines planes carrying suspected military equipment and personnel. TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael accused the federal government of using Ethiopian Airlines to transport soldiers and supplies to Mekele airport in an October 16 statement.[xvii] Debretsion warned the government to stop using the airport and warned that “the airline itself would bear responsibility for any attack it might face.”[xviii] Prime Ministerial Advisor and former TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda condemned the remarks as a threat to commit terrorist attacks.[xix] Ethiopian Airlines had resumed flights to Mekele on October 11.[xx]

Regional and International Activity

Top Russian and US officials separately underscored their desire to mediate and deescalate tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and urged both neighbors to show restraint. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Russian newspaper Izvestia that Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions were a “concern,” and that the Russian government had urged restraint and dialogue.[xxi] Alimov also said that Russia willing to mediate between the two countries on the sidelines of the upcoming Russia-Africa summit, which will be on October 28 and 29 in Moscow.[xxii]

US officials also reiterated calls for restraint and mediation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that he was “worried” that Ethiopian and Eritrean troop buildups could cause a broader conflict during a press conference on October 17.[xxiii] Rubio noted that he had emphasized the importance of Ethiopia being “wise and measured” in its response to the TPLF and other rebel attacks to ensure there is no broader war during his October 14 phone call with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.[xxiv] Rubio explained that the United States had previously lifted sanctions on Eritrea in September with the hopes of establishing links that would better enable the United States to “serve the role of mediator and peacemaker” should tensions arise between Ethiopia and Eritrea.[xxv] US ambassador to Ethiopia Ervin Massinga stated that “conflict should never be the first option” in an interview with Ethiopian outlet The Reporter, published on October 19.[xxvi]

[i] https://acleddata.com/country/conflict-ethiopia; https://x.com/Yonigussie/status/2112047575746633768

[ii] https://x.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/2111112124139503690

[iii] https://x.com/Wazemaradio/status/2111150133299572837

[iv] https://p.dw.com/p/5ONm1

[vi] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2111895007393177831; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2111895007393177831

[vii] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2112273768366436546; https://x.com/neby_G/status/2112275130273714545

[viii] https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/ethiopia-war-security-review/october-16-2026; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2110764033557004528; https://www.dw.com/am/%E1%88%B5%E1%88%88-%E1%88%B0%E1%88%9C%E1%8A%95-%E1%8A%A2%E1%89%B5%E1%8B%AE%E1%8C%B5%E1%8B%AB-%E1%8C%A6%E1%88%AD%E1%8A%90%E1%89%B5-%E1%89%A0%E1%8B%B6%E1%8B%AD%E1%89%B8-%E1%89%AC%E1%88%88-%E1%8B%A8%E1%89%80%E1%8C%A5%E1%89%B3-%E1%8C%A1%E1%88%98%E1%88%AB-live-blog-%E1%8B%98%E1%8C%88%E1%89%A3/live-79483467; https://acleddata.com/country/conflict-ethiopia; https://www.facebook.com/share/p/19CQvSmx15; https://ethiopiandesk dot com/tigray-military-retakes-abiy-addi-other-towns; https://x.com/Yonigussie/status/2110815538096316698

[ix] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2111558507916845326; https://acleddata.com/country/conflict-ethiopia

[x] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2111895007393177831

[xi] https://acleddata.com/country/conflict-ethiopia; https://x.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/2112167970655150276

[xii] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2111558507916845326; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2111895007393177831

[xiii] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2112531519214620884 

[xiv] https://x.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/2112217939672015353

[xv] https://x.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/2112217939672015353 

[xvi] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-the-return-of-war-in-tigray-means-for-ethiopia-and-the-region 

[xvii] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/c6g7x53p3d9jo

[xviii] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/c6g7x53p3d9jo; https://www.bbc.com/tigrinya/articles/cm78pnlvxewjo

[xix]https://www.dw.com/am/%E1%88%98%E1%8A%95%E1%8C%8D%E1%88%A5%E1%89%B5-%E1%89%A0%E1%89%B5%E1%8C%8D%E1%88%AB%E1%8B%AD-%E1%88%B5%E1%88%8B%E1%89%8B%E1%89%8B%E1%88%98%E1%8B%8D-%E1%89%A3%E1%88%88%E1%8A%A0%E1%8B%B0%E1%88%AB-%E1%8A%A0%E1%88%B5%E1%89%B0%E1%8B%B3%E1%8B%B0%E1%88%AD-%E1%88%85%E1%8B%88%E1%88%93%E1%89%B5-%E1%88%9D%E1%88%8B%E1%88%BD-%E1%88%B0%E1%8C%A0/a-79688154

[xx] https://addisstandard dot com/brief/n-60104

[xxi] https://iz dot ru/en/node/2184732; https://x.com/addisstandard/status/2111381463614607661; https://x.com/addisstandard/status/2111381463614607661

[xxii] https://x.com/addisstandard/status/2111381463614607661; https://x.com/addisstandard/status/2111381463614607661

[xxiii] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SGz_bZFlxl0

[xxiv] https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/10/secretary-rubios-call-with-ethiopian-prime-minister-abiy-4

[xxv] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SGz_bZFlxl0

[xxvi] https://www.thereporterethiopia dot com/53537

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 13 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 16 at 9:00 A.M. EST.

To receive the Africa File, Ethiopia War Security Review, or Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.  

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.  

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in Ethiopia in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaways:

• Central Axis. Tigrayan rebel forces claim to have launched a counteroffensive that allegedly recaptured some key gateway towns near the Kola Tembien mountains in central Tigray.
• Other Rebel Activity. Amhara rebels have continued to capture rural villages and towns in eastern Amhara region.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. The Ethiopian federal government appointed a caretaker government in Tigray, with plans to hold elections within six months.
• Regional Activity. Ethiopian and Eritrean officials have met with foreign officials to push their respective narratives on the conflict, as the international community encourages de-escalation and restraint.

 Figure 1. ENDF Continues Advances in Tigray

Source: Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo; Alexander Brown and Ziv Zellars.

Northern Axis: Mekele-Adigrat-Adwa

Nothing significant to report.

Central Axis: Mekele-Abiy Addi-Adwa-Rama

Tigrayan rebel forces claim to have launched a counteroffensive that allegedly recaptured some key gateway towns near the Kola Tembien mountains in central Tigray. DW Amharic and Wazema Radio reported intense fighting involving drones between the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) military wing—and Ethiopian federal forces in Kola Tembien district, approximately 64 miles northwest of Mekele, and Shewate Hgum and Yechila, approximately 71 miles southwest of Mekele near the Amhara border, on October 15.[i] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) corroborated claims from TPLF-affiliated media that the TDF retook control of Abiy Addi and Werkamba on October 14, although TPLF-affiliated media claimed that the TDF had also captured Shewate Hgum and Yechila.^[ii] ACLED recorded a drone strike on a cattle ranch near Abiy Addi, 60 miles northwest of Mekele and 30 miles north of Yechila, in an area known as Dr. Atakilti.[iii] The Ethiopian Conflict Map and DW Amharic also reported that the TDF and ENDF clashed in Abergele, 50 miles south of Abiy Addi, on October 15.[iv]

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

Nothing significant to report.

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Shire

Nothing significant to report.

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Amhara rebels have continued to capture rural villages and towns in eastern Amhara’s South Wollo and North Shewa zones. Wazema Radio also confirmed claims from pro-Fano sources that AFNM had taken control of Wegere, a village roughly 35 miles north of the North Shewa zonal capital Debre Birhan, on October 15.[v] DW Amharic reported intense clashes between AFNM and ENDF forces around Mehal Sayint, Jama, Wegdi, and Kelala villages in Delanta district, which is roughly 20 miles west of the key crossroads town Woldia in the South Wollo zone, as of October 15.[vi] Pro-Fano sources had claimed that the group had also Wegel Tena, which is the capital of Delanta district, and the rural district capitals of Meranga town, Mehal Meda, and Zemero in North Shewa zone by October 13.[vii]

Major Domestic Political Developments:

The Ethiopian federal government appointed a caretaker government in Tigray, with plans to hold elections within six months. The Ethiopian federal government suspended the Tigray Interim administration and appointed a caretaker government on October 16 after declaring the TPLF’s defeat.[viii] The key goals of the new administration include restoring infrastructure and services damaged during the war, returning displaced individuals to their homes, resolving ongoing security challenges within Tigray, and creating a political climate for elections to be held within six months.[ix] Abiy appointed five officials associated with Prime Ministerial Adviser and former TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda’s Simret part and the Tigray Peace Forces to the administration: Ato Asefa Abrahaga Hagos as Chief Administrator and Chief of Public Service; Doctor Tewodros Aregeay W/Selassie as Chief of Economy and Reconstruction; ⁠Brig. Gen. Gebretensae Whatna Haylu as Chief of Security and Peace; Ato Redai Halefom W/Selassie as Chief of Politics and Mass Mobilization; and Doctor Shishay Amare as the Mayor of Mekelle City.[x]

Regional Activity

Ethiopian and Eritrean officials have met with foreign officials to push their respective narratives on the conflict, as the international community encourages de-escalation and restraint. Ethiopian military officials met with foreign officials and military attaches on October 13 to display a stockpile of weapons, Eritrean uniforms, and ID cards that they claimed to have seized from the TPLF that were allegedly from Eritrea and Sudan.[xi] The cache included an Iranian-made Mohajer-6 and accompanying Qaem/GB-20 high-explosive fragmentation precision-guided bomb and a Turkish-Pakistani-made YIHA-III loitering kamikaze drone. The Sudanese Armed Forces have used Mohajer-6 and YIHA-III drones in the Sudanese civil war, with Ethiopian sources accusing Eritrea of serving as a supply conduit for these drone shipments to the SAF, although Ethiopia also used Mohajer-6 drones during the first Tigray War.[xii] The stockpile also included. The Critical Threats Project assessed in its October 15 Africa File that these actions are part of Ethiopian efforts to set conditions to legally justify military action inside Eritrea on self-defense grounds.[xiii] Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh held a briefing with foreign representatives in Asmara, the Eritrean capital, where he accused Ethiopia of waging an unjustified invasion, effectively declaring war on Eritrean sovereignty, and supporting Eritrean opposition groups.[xiv] 

Several foreign officials and governments have urged de-escalation and restraint, including in conversations with top Ethiopian officials. Prime Ministerial Adviser Getachew Reda met with the EU Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Annette Weber and EU Ambassador to Ethiopia Sofie From-Emmesberg on October 13 to discuss a range of regional issues and working together to avoid further escalation.[xv] Abiy Ahmed and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone call on October 14, in which Rubio emphasized that “all countries in the Horn of Africa must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors and avoid cross-border incursions,” according to the US State Department.[xvi] Canada and the United Kingdom released statements on October 15 calling for respect for sovereignty, de-escalation, and maximum restraint.[xvii] Jawar Mohamed, an Ethiopian politician and former political ally of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, claimed on October 15 that Ethiopian officials had conditioned military restraint on Eritrea meeting demands on TPLF sanctuary, support for other armed groups, and broader security arrangements in recent discussions with international officials.[xviii]

Author: Liam Karr

Contributor: Alexander Brown

Data Cutoff: This review covers the period from October 9 at 9:00 A.M. EST to October 13 at 12:00 P.M. EST.

To receive the Africa File, Ethiopia War Security Review, or Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.  

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in Ethiopia in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaways:

• Northern Axis. Federal forces advanced all the way to the Eritrean border at Zalambessa after advancing north from Adigrat since October 10, as Tigrayan and alleged Eritrean forces retreated.
• Central Axis. Federal forces captured Adwa on October 11 after Tigrayan rebel forces withdrew toward the Ethiopian border town Rama. Federal forces have also advanced into the interior of rural central Tigray from both the Adigrat and Adwa axes.
• Northwestern Axis. Ethiopian federal forces captured Axum on October 12 after advancing from Shire along the B30 highway.
• Western Axis. Federal forces have advanced toward Sheraro in northwestern Tigray, forcing Tigrayan rebel and alleged Eritrean forces to retreat toward Badme, Eritrea.
• Southern Axis. Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)–affiliated media claimed that the TPLF forces conducted two ambushes targeting Ethiopian federal forces near the Amhara border in the Kola Tembien Mountains.
• Eastern Axis. Isolated and unverified reports claimed that the Ethiopian military has launched a military buildup in Afar region along the A1 highway to Assab. Isolated reports claimed that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces clashed near the border, although some aspects of these claims have already been disproven.
• Major Domestic Political Developments. A high-level federal delegation visited Mekele and Adigrat, as federal officials began to articulate plans to reestablish federal political control in Tigray and facilitate a return to normalcy. Imprisoned high-ranking former TPLF leaders escaped from TPLF custody and fled to federally controlled Mekele on October 12.
• Regional Activity. Eritrea wrote a letter to the UN Security Council (UNSC) on October 10 accusing Ethiopia of effectively declaring war and calling for deterrent sanctions on Ethiopia in response to Ethiopia’s earlier letter to the UNSC on October 8.

Figure 1. ENDF Continues Advances in Tigray

Northern Axis: Mekele-Adigrat-Zalambessa-Adwa

Federal forces have advanced all the way to the Eritrean border at Zalambessa after advancing north from Adigrat since October 10, as Tigrayan and alleged Eritrean forces retreated. The Ethiopian military (Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF) and allied Tigray Peace Force (TPF) entered Adigrat without facing any resistance on the night of October 9 into 10.[i] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and Deutsche Welle (DW) Amharic reported that the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF)—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) military wing—and rumored Eritrean forces had preemptively withdrawn from the town to defensive positions to the north around Cherseber, Debre Damo, Fatsi, Fiya Keshi, and Sebeya, all of which are located in Tigray’s Eastern Zone between Adigrat and Zalambessa.[ii] The ENDF launched several drone strikes targeting suspected TDF-Eritrean forces between and in Adigrat and Zalambessa over the last week.[iii]

Federal forces advanced 23 miles north to Zalambessa from Adigrat between October 11 and 12 without encountering substantial resistance. DW Amharic cited locals who claimed that Eritrean forces withdrew from positions in Fatsi on October 11, and ACLED recorded that Eritrean forces withdrew to Eritrea through Zalambessa on October 12.[iv] The ENDF shelled suspected TDF-Eritrean defensive positions in Fatsi for an hour on October 12 before advancing and has since deployed heavy weaponry and tanks from Adigrat in the direction of Zalambessa on October 13, according to ACLED.[v] Open-source analyst Ethiopia Conflict Map reported on October 13 that Eritrean forces have now “entrenched” themselves north of Zalambessa.[vi]

Central Axis: Mekele-Abiy Addi-Adwa-Rama

Federal forces captured Adwa on October 11 after TDF forces withdrew toward the Ethiopian border town Rama. ENDF-TPF forces captured Abiy Addi on October 8 and then advanced along the C23 highway to capture Werkamba by October 10.[vii] Federal forces then rapidly advanced nearly 50 miles through May Kental and Adi Salem to capture Adwa on October 11.[viii] TDF forces withdrew from Adwa between October 10 and 11 nearly 23 miles north to the border town Rama.[ix] Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 10 that some TDF forces fled across the border and that Eritrean forces had dug trenches north of the town in Eritrean territory.[x]

Federal forces have also advanced into the interior of rural central Tigray from both the Adigrat and Adwa axes. The ENDF captured Enticho, Feres May, Idaga Ardi, and Nebelet on October 11.[xi] Enticho is the Afherom district capital and lies on the A2 between Adigrat, 20 miles to the east, and Adwa, 20 miles to the west. Pro-Ethiopian federal government sources claimed on October 12 that five high-ranking TDF commanders surrendered to TPF forces in the Enticho area, including Deputy Army Commander Col. Berhane Gebreananya, Logistics Commander Col. Gebremariam Teklu, Col. Welday Mewcha, Col. Mehari Yifter, and Col. Gebrehawaria Desta.[xii] ACLED had previously reported that TPLF leadership had relocated to the Aferhom district after they fled Mekele in early October. The other three captured villages lie in rural areas between the A2 and C23, where Ethiopia Conflict Mapper reported on October 12 that ENDF forces trapped between Adwa and Adigrat had retreated into.[xiii]

Northwestern Axis: Adi Arkay-Shire-Axum

Ethiopian federal forces captured Axum on October 12 after advancing from Shire along the B30 highway. ENDF-TPF forces captured Shire on October 8 and began advancing east on October 9. Federal forces had advanced 20 miles to Selekleka by October 10 and a further 10 miles to Wkro by October 11 before covering the final 10 miles to Axum by October 12.[xiv]

Western Axis: Humera-Addi Remets-Sheraro-Shire

Federal forces advanced toward Sheraro from Shire in northwestern Tigray, forcing TDF and alleged Eritrean forces to retreat toward Badme, Eritrea. ENDF forces captured Adi Dairo and Adi Nebried, which are nearly 20 and 25 miles northwest of Shire, on October 11.[xv] ENDF forces then advanced another 16 miles to Adi Hageray—17 miles from Sheraro—on October 12.[xvi] The New Humanitarian and DW Amharic cited locals who claimed that Eritrean forces were active on the 60-mile stretch of road between Shire and Sheraro in reporting from October 10 and 12.[xvii] DW Amharic and ACLED reported on October 12 that Eritrean forces withdrew from these areas, including Adi Hageray, Adi Awala, Shimelba, and Ziban Gedena, with DW Amharic citing locals who said that Eritrean forces were still present around Badme and Sheraro.[xviii] The Ethiopian Conflict Map reported on October 13 that Eritrean forces had entrenched themselves around Badme.[xix]

Southern Axis: Mekele-Alamata-Sekota-Woldia

TPLF-affiliated media claimed that the TDF conducted two ambushes targeting ENDF forces near the Amhara border in the Kola Tembien Mountains on October 12. Tigray TV claimed the ambushes were roughly 10 miles apart near Yechila, Central Tigray zone, and Finarwa, Southern Tigray zone.[xx] The villages are between 35 and 40 miles southwest of Mekele in rural areas the ENDF has not yet captured from TDF forces.

Eastern Axis: Afar Region

Isolated and unverified reports claimed that the ENDF has launched a military buildup in Afar region along the A1 highway to Assab. DW Amharic and an open-source conflict analyst on X claimed on October 12 that the ENDF had deployed a large number of troops and heavy weaponry in Bure, Bododa, and Elidar. The villages are two, 13, and 56 miles from the Eritrean border, respectively, along the A1.[xxi]

Isolated reports claimed that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces clashed near the border, although some aspects of these claims have already been disproven. Journalist Sajid Nadeem’s Ethiopia Desk media outlet reported that EDF and ENDF forces clashed near Bure on October 11, citing locals who heard gunfire.[xxii] Another open-source conflict analyst on X and the Belgian think tank EEPA separately noted reported shelling and fighting in the area.[xxiii] DW Amharic, independent outlet UMD Media, and researcher Mohamed Khier Omer cited locals on October 12 who denied earlier unverified reports from The Ethiopian Desk and UMD media that that Ethiopian mechanized units had crossed the border and advanced 10 miles to seize Debay Sema, Eritrea.[xxiv] Locals who spoke with UMD Media said that ENDF mechanized forces are “not even close” to Bure, but that they were still concerned over a possible military confrontation.[xxv]

Other Rebel Kinetic Activity

Nothing significant to report.

Major Domestic Political Developments

Prime Ministerial Adviser Getachew Reda said that the federal government would directly rule Tigray via a command post for a six-month period prior to regional elections. Getachew said during an interview with a Tigrayan outlet on October 11 that the six-month period will aim to create administrative and security conditions to facilitate rehabilitation and recovery in the region, and that the ENDF and TPF will be the primary security sources and allow humanitarian aid distribution in areas under federal control.[xxvi] Reda was formerly TPLF spokesperson and Tigray Interim Administration head and is linked to the TPF.[xxvii]

A high-level federal delegation visited Mekele and Adigrat on October 11. Ethiopian intelligence chief Redwan Hussein, Getachew Reda, Ethiopian nuclear energy commissioner Dr. Abraham Belay, and TPF commander Brig. Gen. Gebregziabher Beyene led the delegation.[xxviii] The officials talked to local residents and officials and emphasized the widespread desire for peace among Tigrayans and federal forces.[xxix]

Former TIA head Gen. Tadesse Werede and other imprisoned TPLF leaders escaped from TDF custody around Rama and fled to federally controlled Mekele on October 12. The other leaders included Colonel Tewolde Gebrettonsa, Colonel Alemseged Gebreegzi, and Ato Isaias Tadesse.[xxx] Tewolde told BBC Tigrinya that the TDF had relocated himself and other hostages to Adwa and Axum and then Rama, with plans to relocate them to Eritrea, as the TDF retreated across Tigray throughout early October.[xxxi] Tewolde said that their detention was politically motivated due to the detainees voicing opposition to the TPLF’s move to reject the federal government’s extension of Tadesse’s term as TIA head in May 2026 and restoring the pre-Tigray war TPLF government.[xxxii]

Regional Activity

Eritrea wrote a letter to the UN Security Council (UNSC) on October 10 accusing Ethiopia of effectively declaring war and calling for deterrent sanctions on Ethiopia in response to Ethiopia’s earlier letter to the UNSC on October 8. The letter called Ethiopia’s accusations that Eritrea had invaded and subsequent Ethiopian defensive measures tantamount to a declaration of war.[xxxiii] Eritrea asked the UNSC to condemn Ethiopia’s actions and  “take the requisite deterrent measures against it in accordance with Chapter VII of the UN Charter.”[xxxiv] Chapter VII allows for measures ranging from ​sanctions to military action.\

[i] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2108634878157914219?s=20; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-forces-regain-control-border-city-after-reported-eritrean-incursion-2026-10-10; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/ethiopia-eritrea-ramp-up-rhetoric-are-they-inching-towards-war

[ii] https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://p.dw.com/p/5O76o

[iii] https://p.dw.com/p/5OA2q; https://x.com/xniser/status/2108962957103358111?s=20; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/08/ethiopia-drone-attack-against-eritrean-troops-in-tigray

[iv] https://p.dw.com/p/5OA2q; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive

[v] https://www.umdmedia dot com/article/afar-sources-dismissed-reports-of-endf-advance-into-eritrea-shelling-and-troop-movements-reported-near-adigrat-today; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive

[vi] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109936959590105114?s=20

[vii] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2108845479131767127?s=20

[viii] https://p.dw.com/p/5OBPn; https://www.aljazeera dot com/news/2026/10/12/ethiopian-troops-capture-adwa-without-a-fight-witnesses-say; https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109251618956853348?s=20; https://x.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/2109310144613904436?s=20

[ix] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109280476271616218?s=20; https://p.dw.com/p/5OBPn; https://www.aljazeera dot com/news/2026/10/12/ethiopian-troops-capture-adwa-without-a-fight-witnesses-say; https://ethiopiandesk.com/ethiopian-military-enters-adwa-as-tdf-retreats; https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BxPXHoay2/

[x] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2108925408536072464?s=20; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109936959590105114?s=20; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109960390738124994?s=20

[xi] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109214105466818698?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109217441842929861?s=20; https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2108944152025325941?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109217441842929861?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109406974043689470?s=20; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2109659829383881144?s=20: https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109165678745849883?s=20

[xii] https://www.eepa.be//wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Situation-Report-EEPA-Horn-No.-769-12-October-2026.pdf; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2109578211046891872?s=20

[xiii] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109621152851091876?s=20

[xiv] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2108877282878382132?s=20; https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109267303955079327?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109217441842929861?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109406974043689470?s=20; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2109659829383881144?s=20: https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109165678745849883?s=20; https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109251618956853348?s=20; https://x.com/zarGEOINT/status/2109613477341843558?s=20

[xv] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109214105466818698?s=20; https://www.eepa.be//wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Situation-Report-EEPA-Horn-No.-769-12-October-2026.pdf; https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109518729566724184?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109217441842929861?s=20; https://x.com/Majakovsk73/status/2109406974043689470?s=20; https://x.com/Zeate1/status/2109659829383881144?s=20: https://x.com/breaking_bre/status/2109165678745849883?s=20

[xvi] https://acleddata.com/ethiopia-alerts-archive

[xvii] https://p.dw.com/p/5O76o; https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2026/10/12/eritrean-incursions-raise-fears-wider-regional-war-ethiopia

[xviii] https://p.dw.com/p/5OA2q

[xix] https://x.com/Ethiomapping/status/2109936959590105114?s=20

[xx] https://x.com/Yonigussie/status/2109741698301702634?s=20; https://www.facebook.com/tigrai.tv1/posts/pfbid02uU1TQPRzGKCpRuude57fPy7ZR5WURkZL7KgY4X5Tr93QmKwvyy5SUuKNY7siJnm2l?__cft__[0]=AZiVYiCENZB2aH0d4GepIQZ_7YgSObnxUizNqLwejLQYox8j_vZOBeqxYQhqb_DMkL_AaYsfOdpvdYKL5TeNX1rtaCJ8lfQWYJIkBo0vV43mdiMHCGEtC8n8TR76dGbUGQEswfVTylnygG6ERJR6li_1hnbiV_Jz&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

[xxi] https://p.dw.com/p/5OA4g; https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2109944841224241212?s=20

[xxii] https://ethiopiandesk dot com/ethiopia-eritrea-exchange-gunfire-around-bure

[xxiii] https://x.com/hornafricanguy/status/2109595860937908513?s=20; https://www.eepa.be//wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Situation-Report-EEPA-Horn-No.-769-12-October-2026.pdf

[xxiv] https://www.umdmedia dot com/article/afar-sources-dismissed-reports-of-endf-advance-into-eritrea-shelling-and-troop-movements-reported-near-adigrat-today; https://p.dw.com/p/5OA4g; https://x.com/mkheirom/status/2109609113554399477?s=20; https://www.umdmedia dot com/article/reports-ethiopian-forces-cross-into-eritrea-take-control-of-strategic-locality-near-assab-following-mechanized-fighting; https://ethiopiandesk dot com/rumors-of-endf-seizing-deba-sima-in-eritrea/;

[xxv] https://www.umdmedia dot com/article/afar-sources-dismissed-reports-of-endf-advance-into-eritrea-shelling-and-troop-movements-reported-near-adigrat-today

[xxvi] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/c687z11xyje8o; https://www.bbc.com/tigrinya/articles/cm93zkkg4wg1o

[xxvii] https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/05/14/addis-ababa-backs-creation-of-armed-tigrayan-opposition-in-afar-region,110449004-gra

[xxviii] https://x.com/DanielsonKassa1/status/2109269829244928156?s=20; https://wegahtafacts.substack.com/p/senior-ethiopian-government-officials; https://x.com/mkheirom/status/2109372384168030347?s=20; https://x.com/DanielsonKassa1/status/2109281070084743374?s=20

[xxix] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/ck0j0gy185lzo; https://www.facebook.com/reel/1148023157555219

[xxx] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/cwj0lze7lp23o; https://x.com/UMDMedia_/status/2109640375099064389; https://x.com/Jawar_Mohammed/status/2109637594459918838?s=20; https://x.com/getachew_temare/status/2109660438824669305?s=20; https://x.com/UMDMedia_/status/2109890986386346094;

[xxxi] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/cwj0lze7lp23o

[xxxii] https://www.bbc.com/amharic/articles/cwj0lze7lp23o

[xxxiii] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-forces-regain-control-border-city-after-reported-eritrean-incursion-2026-10-10

[xxxiv] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-forces-regain-control-border-city-after-reported-eritrean-incursion-2026-10-10