Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: May 1, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on peace talks between the DRC, M23, and Rwanda and Uganda’s role in the DRC in the latest Africa File here. To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security review via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: M23 is preparing new measures to regulate economic activity in areas that it controls. The United States is in talks with Rwanda to transfer non-US citizens to Rwanda. Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye accused Rwanda of seeking to destabilize Burundi in an interview with France 24. The DRC government initiated efforts to revoke former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s legal immunity. President Trump’s senior advisor for Africa will attend the Gabonese president’s inauguration and discuss the security situation in the eastern DRC.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

The Congolese army (FARDC) clashed with their Wazalendo allies in Uvira town on Lake Tanganyika. Congolese media reported that FARDC and Wazalendos clashed in at least two neighborhoods in Uvira and on the surrounding hills on May 1.[1] The Congolese news outlet Actualite.cd cited a local source who witnessed the clashes and a “massive deployment” of FARDC troops in the two neighborhoods in Uvira on May 1.[2] Two Congolese journalists reported on social media on May 1 that the clashes occurred due to an ongoing dispute about FARDC deployments to the high ground above Uvira and Wazalendo positions.[3] FARDC soldiers and Wazalendo fighters clashed near Uvira on April 24 and April 25, reportedly for a similar reason.[4]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

M23 is preparing new measures to regulate economic activity in areas that it controls. The Congolese media outlet Media Congo reported that M23 circulated a memo on April 30 that announced the launch of the Bureau d’Enregistrement et de Développement (BED), which will regulate economic activity in M23-controlled areas and require residents—such as “traders, transporters, taxi and truck owners,” according to Media Congo—to register with the BED to receive accreditation to legally participate in commercial activities.[5] The M23 memo reportedly said that the BED aims to foster “transparency” and “local development.”[6] It remains unclear whether M23 will require residents to pay for accreditation that would function as a tax.

The United States is  talks with Rwanda to transfer non-US citizens to Rwanda. CNN reported on April 30 that the two countries are in talks for Rwanda to accept and assimilate migrants with criminal records from the US on an ad-hoc basis.[7] A senior diplomat for the US State Department’s Africa bureau met with the Rwandan foreign minister and the Rwandan ambassador to the United States in Washington to launch the first “U.S.-Rwanda bilateral strategic dialogue” on April 29.[8] The Washington Post cited a Rwandan official who said the two countries have been discussing the arrangement since late January.[9] The Washington Post cited a former US official who speculated that Rwanda views the deal as an opportunity to reset relations with the United States within the context of a broader peace deal after the United States sanctioned Rwandan and M23 officials in late February.[10] The US reportedly deported a refugee from Iraq to Rwanda in March that served as a potential “model that could work on a bigger scale.”[11] CNN reported that the plan is still in the early stages and “could take weeks to come together.”[12]

Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye accused Rwanda of seeking to destabilize Burundi in an interview with France 24. Ndayishimiye claimed that Rwanda is mobilizing Burundian rebels who attempted to overthrow the Burundian government in 2015 to attack Burundi.[13] Ndayishimiye claimed that Rwanda frames the rebels as Burundian to justify Rwanda’s intervention in Burundi and compared this to how Rwanda claims that M23 rebels are Congolese and not Rwandan.[14] Ndayishimiye made similar statements in late March when he told the BBC that he believed Rwandan President Paul Kagame “has a plan to attack Burundi” based on “credible intelligence” reports.[15] CTP previously assessed that Ndayishimiye’s accusations highlight the continued risk of escalation between Burundi and Rwanda, especially given the proximity of each country’s forces in the eastern DRC and the existential threat that each perceives from the other.[16]

The DRC government initiated efforts to revoke former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s legal immunity. The FARDC’s lead attorney filed a formal request in the DRC Senate to lift Kabila’s immunity so that the Congolese government can prosecute Kabila.[17] The DRC government is reportedly seeking to lift Kabila’s immunity status as a Congolese senator and not in his capacity as a former president.[18] The DRC Minister of Justice told reporters in Kinshasa, the Congolese capital, on April 30 that he acquired “tangible evidence” that Kabila colluded with M23 and committed “treason, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and massacres of peaceful civilians and military personnel.”[19] The justice minister said that the judicial system is awaiting the DRC Senate’s compliance so that the government can prosecute Kabila and seize his assets as a “preventative and protective measure.”[20] A senior official for Kabila’s party called the move “relentless persecution” and said that it “showed that the [DRC] government feared Kabila’s return.”[21] The DRC government previously suspended Kabila’s political party and searched the properties of Kabila and former DRC presidential candidate and Kabila ally, Moïse Katumbi.[22] Tshisekedi has repeatedly accused Kabila and his allies, without evidence, of supporting M23 and committing treason against the DRC government.

Kabila, Katumbi, and two Congolese opposition politicians released a joint statement in favor of national dialogue. Kabila and Katumbi, along with Martin Fayulu and Delly Sessang, a released a joint statement on April 30 that urged the international community to support a national dialogue backed by a coalition of Congolese religious leaders.[23] The four leaders expressed support for recent peace efforts led by the United States and Qatar but said that “they do not constitute a sufficient basis for a definitive and lasting solution” to the security crisis in the eastern DRC.[24] The four leaders said that a national dialogue is the best path to peace because of the need to include a wide array of Congolese stakeholders.[25] The four leaders expressed reservations about a potential US-DRC minerals deal and demanded that the DRC government publicly disclose the details of any agreement.[26] The four leaders also called for the withdrawal of all foreign fighters from the DRC and the return of displaced persons and refugees to their place of origin.[27]

President Trump’s Senior Advisor for Africa, Massad Boulos, will attend the Gabonese president’s inauguration and discuss the security situation in the eastern DRC. The French investigative outlet Africa Intelligence reported on May 1 that Boulos will attend Oligui Nguema’s inauguration ceremony on May 3.[28] The outlet said that Boulos will talk with “several heads of state [on] sensitive subjects,” including the security crisis in the eastern DRC.[29]