Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: August 18, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s forecast of DRC-M23 peace talks and the trajectory of the conflict in the eastern DRC in Challenges to Sustainable DRC-M23 Peace: Africa File Special Edition.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The next round of Qatari-mediated negotiations between the DRC and M23 is reportedly set to take place soon. Kenya nominated a senior diplomatic official to M23-controlled Goma. M23 clashed with the Congolese army (FARDC) and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on the front lines in Walungu district in South Kivu. The FARDC and Wazalendo fighters repelled M23 attacks in a remote area in Walikale district in North Kivu.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

The Congolese army (FARDC) and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters repelled M23 attacks in a remote area in Walikale district in North Kivu. Congolese media reported that FARDC and Wazalendo fighters repelled two M23 attacks in the Banakindi locality in the Kisimba group in Walikale on August 15.[i] CTP is unable to verify the location of Banakindi. The Kisimba group is located roughly 12 miles east of Pinga, a military and logistics hub on the RP1030 in Masisi district. Congolese media reported previously that M23 reinforced its positions in Kisimba and the nearby Ikobo group using its supply lines on the RP1030 late last week.[ii]

Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack near Nyabiondo on the RP529 in Masisi district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack in Kaliki village in the Waloa Yungu group on August 17 after M23 reinforced its positions in the area on August 15.[iii] CTP is unable to verify the location of Kaliki. The Waloa Yungu group is roughly 15 miles west of Nyabiondo on the RP529. Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo fighters pushed M23 back an unspecified distance to Kibati village on the RP529 on August 17.[iv]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

The FARDC and Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 on the front lines in Walungu district in South Kivu. Congolese media reported that the FARDC and Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 within five miles of Nzibira, about 20 miles south of Walungu town, on August 18.[v] M23 claimed that pro-Congolese government forces launched a counteroffensive on M23 positions in Nzibira and Kaniola—six miles west of Walungu town—on August 17.[vi] Independent Congolese journalist Steve Wembi reported that attack drones operated from Burundi attacked M23 positions in Nzibira and Kaniola on August 17.[vii]

Major Political Developments

The next round of Qatari-mediated negotiations between the DRC and M23 is reportedly set to take place soon. The French news outlet Agence France-Presse (AFP) cited a senior Qatari official close to the negotiations on August 17 who said that Qatar will welcome delegations from the two sides to Doha, the Qatari capital, for the next round of talks soon.[viii] Qatar reportedly disseminated a draft peace agreement as early as August 12 ahead of the next round of talks.[ix] The DRC and M23 issued statements that affirmed their continued commitment to the peace process on August 18 and August 17, respectively.[x]

The prisoner release issue remains an obstacle to progress in the talks. M23 reiterated in the August 17 statement that the group will only participate in the next round of talks if the Congolese government implements provisions from the Qatari-brokered declaration of principles agreement from late July, which presumably refers to the issue of prisoner release.[xi] A senior M23 official told Reuters on August 18 that M23 plans to send a delegation to Doha “due to Qatar’s pressure as negotiators” but that the rebel group “didn’t expect significant progress from the talks.”[xii] Steve Wembi cited a source close to the talks on August 18 who said that Qatar has pressured the DRC to release M23 prisoners.[xiii] A Congolese government source told Reuters on August 18 that the prisoner issue is a “complicated prerequisite” because the DRC views it as a “subject of negotiations rather than a condition to continue talks.”[xiv]

Kenya nominated a senior diplomatic official to M23-controlled Goma. Kenyan President William Ruto nominated a consul general to Goma as part of a slate of new appointments in Kenya’s foreign service on August 15.[xv] The Congolese foreign ministry said that Kenya did not consult the DRC prior to the appointment and that the measure requires prior approval under international law and is “particularly inappropriate” amid ongoing human rights violations in M23-controlled areas in a statement on August 16.[xvi] The Kenyan foreign ministry released a statement that clarified the appointment and said that it recognized the DRC’s prerogative to approve and accredit diplomatic officials on August 18.[xvii]