Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: June 9, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: Technical delegations from the DRC and Rwanda are expected to discuss a US-mediated peace agreement in Washington DC this week. Rwanda plans to withdraw from the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). M23 clashed with pro-Congolese Wazalendo fighters on the RN2 in northern South Kivu. Congolese religious leaders reportedly plan to meet with DRC President Félix Tshisekedi to discuss their internal peace initiative next week.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese Wazalendo fighters on the RN2 in northern South Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in Katana village on the RN2 on June 7.[i] M23 has clashed with Wazalendos who have launched sporadic attacks on M23 positions near the RN2 between the Kalehe and Kabare district borders since early June.[ii]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Pro-Congolese government fighters clashed with M23 in several villages in eastern Walikale district in North Kivu. The Congolese news outlet Actualite.cd reported that the Congolese army and Wazalendo fighters attacked M23 positions and dislodged the rebel group from several remote villages in the Kisimba group on June 6.[iii] Actualite.cd reported that M23 launched an attack on Wazalendos in a remote village in Kisimba on June 9.[iv]

Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack near the Masisi district capital in North Kivu. Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendos repelled the attack near Bukombo, a village on the RP529 between Nyabiondo and Masisi town, on June 8.[v]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Technical delegations from the DRC and Rwanda are expected to discuss a US-mediated peace agreement in Washington DC this week. The French state media outlet Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported that the delegations will meet to “defend their respective positions” and “try to come up with a compromise text that could be signed.”[vi] RFI reported that the two sides are considering a second draft agreement that has circulated between the DRC, Rwanda, and the United States.[vii] The United States consolidated the initial version of the agreement in mid-May after brokering a declaration of principles agreement between the two sides.[viii] RFI reported that a potential meeting between foreign ministers from the three parties will take place at an undisclosed time after the technical-level talks in Washington DC.[ix] The United States reportedly expects to finalize the peace agreement by late June.[x]

Rwanda plans to withdraw from the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). The Rwandan foreign ministry announced on June 7 that Rwanda would formally withdraw from ECCAS due to the DRC’s “instrumentalization” of the bloc.[xi] Rwanda expected to assume the rotating presidency of the 11-member ECCAS during a meeting of heads of state in Malabo, the Equatorial Guinean capital, on June 7, but the bloc demanded that Rwanda withdraw its troops from the eastern DRC and re-elected Equatorial Guinea for the role for an additional year.[xii] Rwanda claimed that the ECCAS “deliberately ignored” Rwanda’s right to the presidency and preferred to “impose the DRC’s diktat” to block Rwanda’s turn in the role.[xiii] An ECCAS official told French media that officials from the DRC and Burundi argued that they would not be able to travel to ECCAS events hosted by Rwanda if Rwanda assumed the presidency.[xiv] The DRC communications minister told French state media that Rwanda’s withdrawal from the ECCAS will “in no way compromise the efforts or the ongoing discussions” mediated by the United States and the African Union to reach a regional peace agreement.[xv]

Congolese religious leaders reportedly plan to meet with DRC President Félix Tshisekedi to discuss their internal peace initiative next week. French state media reported that the religious leaders could meet with Tshisekedi during the week of June 16 to discuss the leaders’ initiative.[xvi] The potential meeting comes after Tshisekedi received a delegation led by Martin Fayulu—a prominent Congolese opposition figure and critic of Tshisekedi—who pressed Tshisekedi to hold a meeting with the religious leaders.[xvii] The peace initiative has largely stalled since mid-May due to Tshisekedi’s unwillingness to move forward with the talks.[xviii]

Data Cutoff: June 6, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: Qatar presented a draft peace proposal to the DRC government and M23 after peace talks had stalled due to non-starter demands made by both sides. M23 reportedly clashed with the Congolese army and continued its advance in eastern Walikale district in North Kivu. M23 removed Manu Birato as the South Kivu governor. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 on the RN2 in northern South Kivu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 on the RN2 in northern South Kivu. The Congolese news outlet Radio Maendeleo reported that Wazalendo fighters attacked M23 near Kabamba village in the Mabingu group on the RN2 on June 6.[i] M23 repelled the attack and pushed the Wazalendos back from Kabamba toward the surrounding hills.[ii]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 reportedly clashed with the Congolese army and continued its advance in eastern Walikale district in North Kivu. The Congolese news outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 clashed with the Congolese army in a remote village in the Kisimba group in the Kisimba-Ikobo Primate Reserve in Walikale district on June 4.[iii] The outlet reported that the village and its nearby areas are close to several other villages in Kisimba group whose residents recently fled from M23 due to M23’s advance in the area in late May and early June.[iv] CTP previously reported that M23 has begun building up forces near Pinga—a key government-controlled gateway town near the Masisi and Walikale district borders—including in the Kisimba group, where M23 reportedly announced its intention to attack Pinga.[v]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Qatar presented a draft peace proposal to the DRC government and M23 after peace talks had stalled.[vi] Qatar presented the plan after the two sides negotiated for months but had “engaged on the core issue underlying the conflict” in the latest round of talks.[vii] A source close to the talks told Reuters on June 5 that the two sides would “consult their leaders before resuming talks” on an unknown date.[viii]

The Qatari draft proposal came after the talks were reportedly deadlocked due to non-starter demands made by both sides. Several sources, including M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka, said that the M23 delegation left the Qatari capital without making concrete steps toward an agreement after more than 30 days of discussions.[ix] French media reported on June 5 that the DRC demanded that M23 “withdraws from the towns that it controls” before another round of talks.[x] M23 demanded that the Congolese army withdraw from Walikale town in North Kivu and that the DRC government release detained M23 cadres.[xi] An M23 source close to the talks told Reuters on June 5 that the draft peace proposal was outdated and “had nothing to do with what we proposed and takes more into account” the DRC’s demands than M23’s.[xii] CTP previously assessed that these demands would impede progress in further talks.[xiii] A source close to the talks told French media on June 6 that future talks would aim to “resolve outstanding differences.”[xiv]

Kanyuka confirmed in an interview with the Congolese news outlet Kivu Morning Post that another round of talks could occur soon but blamed the DRC government for the lack of progress.[xv] Kanyuka accused the DRC government of undermining peace negotiations by discriminating against the Tutsi-led M23 and continuing to call M23 “terrorists,” seeking a military solution to the conflict, and backing “an internal front” of pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters who have sown insecurity in M23-controlled areas.[xvi] CTP assessed that Wazalendo and other anti-Tutsi militias are a long-term obstacle to peace efforts.[xvii]

M23 removed Manu Birato as the South Kivu governor. AFC leaders Corneille Nangaa and Bertrand Bisimwa signed off on a communiqué issued on social media on June 6 that appointed Birato to a position based in Goma that focuses on promoting business investment in M23-occupied areas.[xviii] A top M23 official in South Kivu had reportedly accused Birato of embezzlement from an M23-run electricity company in South Kivu and asked Nangaa to remove Manu Birato as governor on June 2.[xix] Rumors circulated on social media that M23 appointed Marcelin Cishambo, a loyalist to former DRC President Joseph Kabila and former South Kivu governor under the DRC government, as the new governor.[xx] A source close to Cishambo told the Congolese news outlet Kivu Morning Post that the rumor was “unfounded.”[xxi]

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: M23 reportedly announced its intention to attack a key military hub on the border between Masisi and Walikale districts. The DRC made a recent push to advance talks with the United States on a minerals deal. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters attacked M23 on the RN2 in northern South Kivu. A senior M23 official in South Kivu reportedly asked AFC head Corneille Nangaa to remove Manu Birato from the South Kivu governorship. Human Rights Watch reported that M23 committed war crimes in Goma.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters attacked M23 on the RN2 in northern South Kivu. Independent Congolese journalist Steve Mulindwa reported on social media that Wazalendos attacked M23 in Katana village on the RN2 on June 4.[i] Congolese Journalist Yassin Kombi reported that Wazalendos launched the attack from Kabushwa on the outskirts of the densely populated Katana area.[ii] M23 responded to the attack and clashed with Wazalendo fighters in the area.[iii] 

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 reportedly announced its intention to attack Pinga, a key military hub on the border between Masisi and Walikale districts. Congolese media sources reported that M23 made the announcement during a local meeting in the Kisimba group—north of Pinga in the Kisimba-Ikobo Primate Reserve—where M23 captured multiple villages in late May.[iv] M23 has continued to reinforce its positions around Pinga in Masisi and Walikale districts in recent days. The Congolese news outlet Kivu Morning Post reported on June 4 that M23 has moved troops northward through the Mweso area on the RP1030 and clashed with Wazalendo fighters in recent days.[v] The Congolese news outlet Actualite.cd reported on June 3 that M23 has been reinforcing troops and military equipment on the RP1030 road from Kalembe village toward Pinga since May 30.[vi] Actualite.cd cited several sources in Masisi who said that M23 deployed heavy weapons to Mpeti village, about 10 miles east of Pinga on the RP1030, as a “prelude to the announced attack.”[vii] The outlet reported that M23 has also been strengthening its positions near Nyabiondo—35 miles south of Pinga on a local road in Masisi district—since May 30.[viii]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC made a recent push to advance talks with the United States on a minerals deal. French media reported that DRC President Félix Tshisekedi established a “strategic coordination unit” within his office comprised of at least 22 senior cabinet members and DRC government officials in mid-May to oversee discussions with the United States.[ix] The French state media outlet Radio France Internationale reported that the unit reflects Tshisekedi’s decision to “centralize actions and maximize every chance of success.”[x] The US is negotiating a minerals deal with the DRC in parallel with a US-led peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda that is expected to be finalized by late June.[xi]

A senior M23 official in South Kivu reportedly asked AFC head Corneille Nangaa to remove Manu Birato from the South Kivu governorship. A leaked memo on social media signed by Radjabu Shamwesi, a top M23 official in South Kivu, recommended that Nangaa remove Birato from the provincical leadership on June 2.[xii] Shamwesi accused Birato of embezzlement from an M23-run electricity company in South Kivu.[xiii]

Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that M23 committed war crimes in the North Kivu provincial capital of Goma. HRW reported that M23 summarily executed at least 21 civilians in Goma in late February.[xiv] M23 targeted civilians and “young men” suspected of collaborating with the Congolese government and committing crime in the Kasika neighborhood in Goma.[xv] Kasika was the location of a former Congolese army barracks before M23 captured the city in late January.[xvi] M23 communication officials, Lawrence Kanyuka and Willy Ngoma, denied the report on social media and called it “nothing more than a propaganda tool” in service of the DRC government.[xvii]

HRW reported that the executions were part of M23’s early efforts to consolidate control in Goma “by whatever means necessary.”[xviii] M23 conducted similar clearing operations in search of armed or “suspicious” military-age males in several neighborhoods in Goma and the nearby city of Sake in May and early June.[xix] The French magazine Jeune Afrique reported on June 3 that M23 has recently transported some detainees to M23’s main military training base in Rutshuru district.[xx] Jeune Afrique also reported that M23 restarted construction of a new detention center in Sake.[xxi] CTP previously reported that M23 has faced challenges in securing Goma and Bukavu, the South Kivu provincical capital, which undermines its image and legitimacy.[xxii]

The Congolese government banned national media outlets from reporting on former DRC President Joseph Kabila. The DRC government’s media regulatory agency issued the suspension for a period of 90 days beginning on June 2.[xxiii] The DRC prohibited Congolese media outlets, including television and radio stations, print and digital press, news websites, and other news sources, from disseminating Kabila’s public statements in any form or “covering, commenting on, or relaying information” relating to Kabila’s political party.[xxiv]

UN member states elected the DRC as non-permanent member of the UN Security Council on June 3. The DRC will serve a two-year term beginning in January 2026 through the end of 2027.[xxv] The DRC has previously served on the UN Security Council twice from 1982 to 1983 and from 1990 to 1991.[xxvi]