Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: August 22, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s forecast of DRC-M23 peace talks and the trajectory of the conflict in the eastern DRC in Challenges to Sustainable DRC-M23 Peace: Africa File Special Edition.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: M23 launched a counterinsurgency operation against suspected Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) militants in Rutshuru district in North Kivu.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

M23 launched a counterinsurgency operation against suspected Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) militants in Rutshuru district in North Kivu. M23 launched the operation against suspected FDLR militants and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters in Kahumiro village in the Bwito chiefdom in Rutshuru on August 20.[i] Kahumiro is located near the Rwindi river on the western edge of the Virunga National Park in Bwito, about four miles south of Kibirzi on a local road. Locals reported the use of light and heavy weaponry in the fighting.[ii] The Congolese media outlet Radio Okapi cited local residents on August 21 who claimed that the operations have resulted in at least ten civilian fatalities, mainly Hutus and other ethnic groups in Bwito, and the displacement of “hundreds of households” to Kibirzi and nearby villages.[iii] CTP assessed previously that M23’s counterinsurgency campaign in Rutshuru violates multiple elements of the US-backed framework despite combating legitimate military targets.[iv]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Nothing significant to report.

Data Cutoff: August 20, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s forecast of DRC-M23 peace talks and the trajectory of the conflict in the eastern DRC in Challenges to Sustainable DRC-M23 Peace: Africa File Special Edition.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: Delegations from the DRC and M23 reportedly arrived in Qatar to deliberate a draft peace agreement that outlines a three-stage peace plan. Both sides have already voiced their disagreements with the draft agreement and continued accusing each other of violating the late July ceasefire. M23 conducted a search and clear operation in Goma. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack near Nyabiondo on the RP529 in Masisi district in North Kivu.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack near Nyabiondo on the RP529 in Masisi district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack on Kaliki village in the Waloa Yungu group in Walikale on August 18.[i] Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo fighters pushed M23 back to its base in Kibati village on the RP529.[ii] CTP is unable to verify the location of Kaliki. The Waloa Yungu group is roughly 15 miles west of Nyabiondo on the RP529. The outlet reported separately that M23 reinforced its positions in Waloa Yungu from Kibati on August 19.[iii]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Delegations from the DRC and M23 reportedly arrived in Qatar for the next round of peace talks. M23 and Congolese media sources confirmed on social media that delegations from both sides arrived in Doha, the Qatari capital, during the reporting period.[iv] Qatar had disseminated a draft peace agreement, reportedly as early as August 12, ahead of the upcoming round of talks.[v]

The draft peace agreement proposes a three-stage plan that would unfold progressively. The first stage focuses on the humanitarian and security aspects of the conflict and would see the establishment of a multilateral monitoring mechanism with the participation of Qatar and the African Union.[vi] The multilateral mechanism committee aims to hold its first meeting within 30 days of the agreement’s signing and would oversee the establishment and operationalization of a joint security force—provisionally called the “interim special force”—that would operate as the only authorized force in “affected” areas in the Kivu provinces under the purview of the Congolese Ministry of Interior.[vii] The draft agreement proposes that M23 would comprise of up to half of the force, with the other half recruiting from the Congolese National Police (PNC) and local civilians but not the Congolese army (FARDC).[viii] The interim force would have a renewable mandate of five years, and its members would then be integrated into the FARDC or the PNC at the end of its mandate.[ix]

The second phase of the plan focuses on governance. The Congolese government would appoint interim authorities in M23-held areas at the local level with input from M23.[x] Both sides would work toward organizing elections by 2027.[xi] The third phase of the plan focuses on wider political and economic challenges in the DRC and calls for a Congolese national dialogue and an “economic recovery plan” to be implemented in 2026.[xii] The third phase also calls for the establishment of a “truth and reconciliation mechanism.”[xiii]

Both sides have already voiced their disagreements on the content of the draft agreement. DRC President Félix Tshisekedi said that the draft agreement was not “satisfactory.”[xiv] The French state media outlet Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported on August 18 that the DRC continues to demand M23’s total withdrawal and dissolution of its parallel administration.[xv] The French magazine Jeune Afrique cited an insider source to the process who said that the Congolese delegation will aim to “ensure that the interests of the Republic are protected and defended so that this war is the last” in the upcoming talks.[xvi]

M23 rejected the draft agreement and said that it failed to consider its demands.[xvii] RFI reported that M23 has rejected total withdrawal and demanded that Congolese government admit “state failure” in the eastern DRC before any restoration of state authority.[xviii] RFI reported that M23 also demanded “institutional reforms” in the Congolese government and a public review of past DRC-M23 peace agreements that it said have not been upheld.[xix] M23 also continues to demand the release of M23 prisoners as a key precondition to a peace deal.[xx]

Both sides have continued to accuse each other of violating the late July ceasefire agreement. The FARDC accused M23 of perpetrating several attacks on its positions in North and South Kivu on August 11 and August 12 and from August 16 to August 18 in a statement released on August 19.[xxi] M23 accused the FARDC and the Burundian government of conducting “systematic” attacks on population centers using one-way attack drones and heavy weaponry on August 19.[xxii] M23 claimed that the FARDC and Burundian army have continued to deploy troops and heavy weaponry to the frontlines in South Kivu.[xxiii]

M23 conducted a search and clear operation in Goma. Actualite.cd reported that M23 carried out the operation in the Kyeshero neighborhood in Goma on August 19.[xxiv] The outlet said that M23 made “several” arrests against suspected criminals and fighters with links to the FARDC.[xxv] M23 last conducted an arrest operation against suspected pro-Congolese government fighters in Goma in early August.[xxvi]

The M23-appointed South Kivu governor named several members to his cabinet. South Kivu governor Busu Bwangwi appointed at least five officials described as “technocrats” to manage portfolios including security, economic and infrastructure policy, energy, communications, and public administration on August 19.[xxvii]

Data Cutoff: August 18, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s forecast of DRC-M23 peace talks and the trajectory of the conflict in the eastern DRC in Challenges to Sustainable DRC-M23 Peace: Africa File Special Edition.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The next round of Qatari-mediated negotiations between the DRC and M23 is reportedly set to take place soon. Kenya nominated a senior diplomatic official to M23-controlled Goma. M23 clashed with the Congolese army (FARDC) and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters on the front lines in Walungu district in South Kivu. The FARDC and Wazalendo fighters repelled M23 attacks in a remote area in Walikale district in North Kivu.

Kinetic Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

The Congolese army (FARDC) and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters repelled M23 attacks in a remote area in Walikale district in North Kivu. Congolese media reported that FARDC and Wazalendo fighters repelled two M23 attacks in the Banakindi locality in the Kisimba group in Walikale on August 15.[i] CTP is unable to verify the location of Banakindi. The Kisimba group is located roughly 12 miles east of Pinga, a military and logistics hub on the RP1030 in Masisi district. Congolese media reported previously that M23 reinforced its positions in Kisimba and the nearby Ikobo group using its supply lines on the RP1030 late last week.[ii]

Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack near Nyabiondo on the RP529 in Masisi district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack in Kaliki village in the Waloa Yungu group on August 17 after M23 reinforced its positions in the area on August 15.[iii] CTP is unable to verify the location of Kaliki. The Waloa Yungu group is roughly 15 miles west of Nyabiondo on the RP529. Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo fighters pushed M23 back an unspecified distance to Kibati village on the RP529 on August 17.[iv]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

The FARDC and Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 on the front lines in Walungu district in South Kivu. Congolese media reported that the FARDC and Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 within five miles of Nzibira, about 20 miles south of Walungu town, on August 18.[v] M23 claimed that pro-Congolese government forces launched a counteroffensive on M23 positions in Nzibira and Kaniola—six miles west of Walungu town—on August 17.[vi] Independent Congolese journalist Steve Wembi reported that attack drones operated from Burundi attacked M23 positions in Nzibira and Kaniola on August 17.[vii]

Major Political Developments

The next round of Qatari-mediated negotiations between the DRC and M23 is reportedly set to take place soon. The French news outlet Agence France-Presse (AFP) cited a senior Qatari official close to the negotiations on August 17 who said that Qatar will welcome delegations from the two sides to Doha, the Qatari capital, for the next round of talks soon.[viii] Qatar reportedly disseminated a draft peace agreement as early as August 12 ahead of the next round of talks.[ix] The DRC and M23 issued statements that affirmed their continued commitment to the peace process on August 18 and August 17, respectively.[x]

The prisoner release issue remains an obstacle to progress in the talks. M23 reiterated in the August 17 statement that the group will only participate in the next round of talks if the Congolese government implements provisions from the Qatari-brokered declaration of principles agreement from late July, which presumably refers to the issue of prisoner release.[xi] A senior M23 official told Reuters on August 18 that M23 plans to send a delegation to Doha “due to Qatar’s pressure as negotiators” but that the rebel group “didn’t expect significant progress from the talks.”[xii] Steve Wembi cited a source close to the talks on August 18 who said that Qatar has pressured the DRC to release M23 prisoners.[xiii] A Congolese government source told Reuters on August 18 that the prisoner issue is a “complicated prerequisite” because the DRC views it as a “subject of negotiations rather than a condition to continue talks.”[xiv]

Kenya nominated a senior diplomatic official to M23-controlled Goma. Kenyan President William Ruto nominated a consul general to Goma as part of a slate of new appointments in Kenya’s foreign service on August 15.[xv] The Congolese foreign ministry said that Kenya did not consult the DRC prior to the appointment and that the measure requires prior approval under international law and is “particularly inappropriate” amid ongoing human rights violations in M23-controlled areas in a statement on August 16.[xvi] The Kenyan foreign ministry released a statement that clarified the appointment and said that it recognized the DRC’s prerogative to approve and accredit diplomatic officials on August 18.[xvii]