Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: March 14, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: The Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militias blocked M23’s advance toward the district capital of Walikale territory and attacked M23’s flank in western North Kivu. The East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community (SADC) scheduled a joint summit of the blocs’ foreign ministers for March 17 that intends to approve measures to advance peace talks and implement a ceasefire. Canadian mining company Alphamin Resources suspended operations at the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s largest tin mine after M23’s advances into Walikale territory on March 13. FARDC and the Burundian army (FDNB) attempted to recapture several villages in Uvira territory in South Kivu from M23 and M23-aligned militias on March 13.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

The Congolese army (FARDC) and the Burundian army (FDNB) attempted to recapture several villages in Uvira territory in South Kivu from M23 and M23-aligned militias on March 13. FARDC, pro-Congolese government militias, and the FDNB attacked M23 and allied militia positions in Kashama—located 50 miles from the provincial capital Bukavu.[1] The pro-Congolese government coalition also clashed with M23 and allied militias in Kigarama—located about 60 miles from the city of Uvira and about 55 miles from Kashama—on March 13.[2] The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that the government coalition still controlled several villages near Kigarama on March 13, which Congolese journalists previously reported were captured on March 12.[3]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

FARDC and allied militias blocked M23’s advance toward the district capital of Walikale territory and attacked M23’s flank. Congolese media outlets reported that FARDC and pro-Congolese government militias advanced 15 miles east along the RP529 and recaptured a portion of Kibati village after clashing with M23 on March 13.[4]  M23 captured Kibati village—located “three days of walking” from the district capital, Walikale town—on March 12.[5]

FARDC and allied militia reinforcements stationed in Pinga—roughly 37 miles north of the RP529—attacked M23’s flank around Nyabiondo town on March 13.[6] The Congolese media outlet Tazama RDC reported that FARDC and pro-Congolese government militias recaptured some areas but that they were cut off from reinforcements and supplies and claimed that their occupation of the villages “will not last.”[7]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Candian mining company Alphamin Resources suspended operations at the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s largest tin mine after M23’s advances into Walikale territory on March 13.[8] Alphamin‘s Bisie mining site—located 53 miles west of Walikale town—produces 7 percent of the world’s mined tin, is the largest tin mine in the DRC, and is the third largest tin mine in the world.[9]

The East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community (SADC) scheduled a joint summit of the blocs’ foreign ministers on March 17 that intends to approve measures to advance peace talks and implement a ceasefire.[10] The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that the EAC-SADC foreign ministers are expected to produce a “roadmap for political dialogue” and consider a report by the EAC-SADC defense chiefs on progress toward a ceasefire.[11] The summit was initially meant to be held on February 28 but was postponed. The EAC-SADC foreign ministers were expected to finalize the merging of the Kenya-mediated Nairobi process and the Angola-mediated Luanda process and consider measures to enforce a ceasefire—including a joint peacekeeping force—in February.[12] Top officials from the DRC stated they supported an “alignment” between the two processes rather than a creation of an entirely new process on March 6.[13] The SADC terminated the mandate of its peacekeeping force in eastern DRC (SAMIDRC) and ordered the force’s withdrawal during a virtual heads of state summit on March 13.[14]

Data Cutoff: March 13, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on Twitter, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: The South African Development Community (SADC) terminated the mandate of its peacekeeping force in eastern DRC (SAMIDRC) and ordered the force’s withdrawal. DRC President Félix Tshisekedi said that he “fully and resolutely supports” the prospect of direct DRC-M23 dialogue. M23 advanced toward the Walikale’s district capital in western North Kivu after capturing several villages along the road between with Masisi and Walikale districts. M23 allied with a Congolese army (FARDC)-aligned local militia group in northern Uvira district in South Kivu, dealing a “blow” to pro-Congolese government forces’ efforts to stop M23’s advance in the area.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 allied with a local militia group who allowed the group to advance through Rurambo town in northern Uvira district in South Kivu.[1] Congolese journalists previously reported that M23 took Rurambo on March 12 as the group advanced southward toward central Uvira district.[2] The militia group was previously aligned with FARDC but clashed with FARDC and Burundian forces after allying with M23.[3] Congolese media described the militia’s defection to M23 as a “blow” to FARDC and Burundian troops’ efforts to stop M23’s advance in the area.[4]

Congolese journalists on social media reported that M23 took control of the Idjwi district of South Kivu on March 12.[5] Idjwi district is an island on Lake Kivu near the DRC’s maritime border with Rwanda. A pro-M23 social media account said that M23’s capture of several key cities on Lake Kivu in late January and early February allowed the group to seize Idjwi with little resistance from pro-Congolese government forces.[6] M23’s capture of Idjwi district solidifies the group’s control over Lake Kivu and the DRC’s maritime border with Rwanda.

The Congolese army (FARDC) and pro-Congolese government militias clashed with M23-aligned Twirwaneho and RED Tabara rebels in several villages near Minembwe town in the Fizi district of southern South Kivu on March 13.[7] A Congolese journalist claimed that FARDC and allied militias ambushed and killed more than 72 M23-aligned rebels during clashes in Ibumba and Natulonge localities—located 28 miles west of Minembwe town—on March 13.[8] Pro-Congolese government forces have clashed with M23-aligned rebels in Minembwe town and nearby areas since early March.[9]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 advanced toward  the Walikale’s district capital in western North Kivu after capturing several villages  along the road between the Masisi and Walikale districts. M23 captured Kashebere town in Masisi territory before advancing to Kibati village in Walikale territory on March 12.[10] The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 plans to capture Walikale town—about “three days of walking” along the RP529 road from Kibati—and that FARDC and allied militias are attempting to block M23’s advance at Kibua village, which is located about 15 miles west of Kibati.[11]

M23 continued to consolidate its control over the area around Masisi town in the Masisi district in central North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 captured Muheto town and several nearby villages after clashing with FARDC and allied militias on March 12.[12] FARDC and pro-Congolese government militia had attacked villages near Masisi town in early March, but M23 launched a counterattack that broke through pro-Congolese government positions near Masisi town on March 9.[13] 

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The South African Development Community (SADC) terminated the mandate of its peacekeeping force in eastern DRC (SAMIDRC) and ordered the force’s withdrawal during a virtual heads of state summit on March 13.[14] Several SADC troop-contributing countries had called for the withdrawal of the 1,300-strong SADC force after M23 captured North Kivu’s provincial capital, Goma, in late January.[15] The SADC force confined most its forces to their bases in Goma and had not sent reinforcements since SADC suffered casualties when M23 captured Goma.[16]

DRC President Félix Tshisekedi said that he “fully and resolutely supports” the prospect of direct DRC-M23 dialogue on March 13.[17] Angola previously announced plans on March 12 for potential peace talks between the DRC and Rwanda scheduled for March 18.[18] DRC spokesperson Tina Salama had said prior to Tshisekedi’s statement that the DRC “received an invitation” but would “wait to see” the details of Angola’s approach before confirming its participation in the talks.[19] Congolese officials told French media on March 12 that the DRC was “surprised” by Angola’s statement and considered it a “unilateral announcement that was not coordinated with Kinshasa.”[20] A DRC spokesperson told Congolese media that the DRC retains its commitment to UN Security Council Resolution 2773, which the UN passed in late February and demanded the withdrawal of Rwandan troops and M23 forces from occupied areas of the eastern DRC.[21] An M23 spokesperson told Reuters on March 11 that the group plans to attend the talks, but M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka released a statement on March 13 that said Angola had yet to officially invite the group to the negotiations.[22]

France announced that it suspended “new development aid projects in Rwanda” on March 12.[23] The French measures come as the EU is expected to move ahead on a proposed sanctions package on Rwanda during an upcoming EU foreign ministers meeting on March 17.[24]

Data Cutoff: March 12, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on Twitter, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: M23 continued its advance southward in central South Kivu in a possible attempt to bypass Congolese army (FARDC) and Burundian army positions on the RN5 road and capture Uvira. M23 captured several villages in northern Masisi district. Angola announced that the DRC and M23 will engage in direct negotiations in the Angolan capital of Luanda next week. The EU is expected to move ahead on a proposed sanctions package on Rwanda for supporting M23 during an upcoming EU foreign ministers meeting.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 continued its advance southward in central South Kivu in a possible attempt to bypass Congolese army (FARDC) and Burundian army positions on the RN5 road and capture Uvira. Congolese journalists on social media reported that M23 advanced roughly 25 miles south from Lwanguku town in Walungu district through a forested route to seize at least six villages in Uvira district on March 12.[1] M23 has now advanced to roughly 20 miles from Uvira town without engaging Burundian and FARDC positions on the RN5.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 captured several villages in the northern Masisi district of North Kivu. Congolese news outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 reinforced its troops from Mweso town along the RP1030 road and dislodged FARDC and pro-Congolese government fighters from their positions in Bibwe, Luhanga, and Nyange towns—located about 15 miles southeast of Pinga—on March 12.[2] Pro-Congolese government fighters previously attacked M23 positions in the nearby village of Kivuye on March 7 but failed to dislodge the rebels from the area.[3]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Angola announced plans to facilitate direct dialogue between M23 and the DRC. Angolan President João Lourenço announced after a meeting with DRC President Félix Tshisekedi on March 11 that the DRC and M23 will directly negotiate in peace talks in the Angola capital of Luanda on March 18.[4] An M23 spokesperson told Reuters that the group plans to attend the talks.[5] Angola has been mediating peace talks known as the Luanda process between the DRC and Rwanda, M23’s primary patron, since 2022.

The EU is expected to move ahead on a proposed sanctions package on Rwanda for supporting M23 during an upcoming EU foreign ministers meeting after Luxembourg dropped its objections. Luxembourg’s foreign minister announced that Luxembourg will not veto the proposed sanctions during the March 17 meeting.[6] Luxembourg previously vetoed sanctions on Rwanda on February 24 and said it preferred to wait for the outcome of a joint EAC-SADC meeting on February 28, which was later postponed.[7] Luxembourg’s foreign minister had said prior to the joint summit’s cancellation that Luxembourg would vote for a sanctions package on Rwanda if the summit failed to produce concrete developments.[8]