Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: May 20, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on peace talks between the DRC, M23, and Rwanda and Uganda’s role in the DRC in the latest Africa File here. To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: US-brokered peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda have facilitated US investment in Rwanda’s mining sector and will reportedly grant Rwanda downstream access to the DRC mining sector. M23 reportedly reinforced troops in several villages in northern Masisi district in North Kivu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 reportedly reinforced troops in several villages in northern Masisi district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that local leaders warned on May 15 that M23 deployed additional troops and military equipment to at least three villages on the RP1030—including Mpeti, which is about 10 miles east of Pinga, a military hub on the border with Walikale district.[i] Local leaders in Masisi and Walikale district have warned of M23 reinforcements in the area since early May and that the rebel group may target Pinga.[ii]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

US-brokered peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda have facilitated US investment in Rwanda’s mining sector and will reportedly grant Rwanda downstream access to the DRC mining sector. Reuters cited several sources on May 20 who confirmed previous reporting and said that “3T” minerals—tantalum, tungsten, and tin—from artisanal mining sites in the DRC could be shipped to Rwanda and legally exported, refined, and marketed from Rwanda to international buyers, including the United States.[iii] A Congolese official told Reuters, however, that the DRC would not cooperate with Rwanda on a minerals deal until Rwanda and “their proxies,” which refers to M23, withdraws from the eastern DRC.[iv] The United States has made the same demand as a stipulation for a broader peace deal.[v] Massad Boulos, President Trump’s senior advisor for Africa, said on social media on May 15 that the United States had provided a consolidated version of the draft peace agreement to both parties and that he spoke to the Congolese and Rwandan presidents separately.[vi] Boulos had told Reuters last week that “probably up to 30” US investors signaled their interest in “doing business in Rwanda in the mining space,” including in the mineral processing and refining sectors.[vii] Rwandan mining company Trinity Metals signed a letter of intent with US tin refining company Nathan Trotter to “establish a new supply chain of tin from Rwanda to the United States” on May 13.[viii] French state reported that Trinity Metals owns the largest tin mine in Rwanda and is one of Rwanda’s “most prominent mining players.”[ix]

Data Cutoff: May 20, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on peace talks between the DRC, M23, and Rwanda and Uganda’s role in the DRC in the latest Africa File here. To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: US-brokered peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda have facilitated US investment in Rwanda’s mining sector and will reportedly grant Rwanda downstream access to the DRC mining sector. M23 reportedly reinforced troops in several villages in northern Masisi district in North Kivu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 reportedly reinforced troops in several villages in northern Masisi district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that local leaders warned on May 15 that M23 deployed additional troops and military equipment to at least three villages on the RP1030—including Mpeti, which is about 10 miles east of Pinga, a military hub on the border with Walikale district.[i] Local leaders in Masisi and Walikale district have warned of M23 reinforcements in the area since early May and that the rebel group may target Pinga.[ii]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

US-brokered peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda have facilitated US investment in Rwanda’s mining sector and will reportedly grant Rwanda downstream access to the DRC mining sector. Reuters cited several sources on May 20 who confirmed previous reporting and said that “3T” minerals—tantalum, tungsten, and tin—from artisanal mining sites in the DRC could be shipped to Rwanda and legally exported, refined, and marketed from Rwanda to international buyers, including the United States.[iii] A Congolese official told Reuters, however, that the DRC would not cooperate with Rwanda on a minerals deal until Rwanda and “their proxies,” which refers to M23, withdraws from the eastern DRC.[iv] The United States has made the same demand as a stipulation for a broader peace deal.[v] Massad Boulos, President Trump’s senior advisor for Africa, said on social media on May 15 that the United States had provided a consolidated version of the draft peace agreement to both parties and that he spoke to the Congolese and Rwandan presidents separately.[vi] Boulos had told Reuters last week that “probably up to 30” US investors signaled their interest in “doing business in Rwanda in the mining space,” including in the mineral processing and refining sectors.[vii] Rwandan mining company Trinity Metals signed a letter of intent with US tin refining company Nathan Trotter to “establish a new supply chain of tin from Rwanda to the United States” on May 13.[viii] French state reported that Trinity Metals owns the largest tin mine in Rwanda and is one of Rwanda’s “most prominent mining players.”[ix]

Congo War Security Review, May 9, 2025

Author: Yale Ford

* CTP will be pausing the Congo War Security Review from May 12 through May 19. CTP will resume its usual daily schedule on May 20. *

Data Cutoff: May 9, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on peace talks between the DRC, M23, and Rwanda and Uganda’s role in the DRC in the latest Africa File here. To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: The DRC government accused M23 and the Rwanda Defense Force (RDF) of violating the preliminary Qatari-mediated truce agreement. M23 ordered the closure of a commercial gold mine in South Kivu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC government accused M23 and the Rwanda Defense Forces (RDF) of violating the preliminary Qatari-mediated truce agreement. The DRC’s interior ministry released a statement on May 8 that claimed M23-RDF bombed densely populated areas and reinforced troops on the front lines in several areas in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces in violation of the late April truce and UN Security Council Resolution 2773, which mandates that all foreign forces withdraw from the eastern DRC.[i] The DRC additionally criticized M23 for the rebel group’s recent efforts to further establish a parallel administration in the eastern DRC.[ii] The DRC claimed that M23 continues to replace traditional authorities with M23 loyalists and reshape local governance in areas that it controls.[iii] The DRC claimed that M23 authorities aim to “intensify the pillaging of minerals” through the rehabilitation of the RP529 road that runs through Rubaya, a major coltan mine in Masisi district.[iv] The DRC accused M23 of committing human rights violations in M23-controlled areas, including “assassinations, indiscriminate bombings, tortures, rapes, and pillaging.”[v] The Congolese news outlet Kivu Morning Post reported on May 9 that M23 denounced the DRC’s rhetoric as “propaganda” designed to delegitimize M23.[vi] Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 claimed this past week that the DRC financed pro-Congolese government militias in Goma and has deliberately sought to “fuel insecurity” in the provincical capital.[vii]

M23 ordered the closure of a commercial gold mine in South Kivu. The head of the Twangiza gold mine in the Luhwinja chiefdom released a statement on May 8 that said that M23 ordered the mine to close after the rebel group captured the area on May 6 and May 7.[viii] M23-appointed Governor of South Kivu, Manu Birato, told Reuters on May 9 that M23 closed the mine due to a tax dispute.[ix]

The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) will reportedly investigate accusations that Rwanda is smuggling minerals from the DRC. Bloomberg reported on May 8 that mining ministers from the ICGLR countries of Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia will visit the DRC and Rwanda to investigate the DRC’s claims that Rwanda is “pillaging its minerals and fueling a conflict” in the eastern DRC.[x]