Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: July 7, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The DRC and M23 are set to convene for a fifth round of Qatari-mediated peace talks this week. M23 officials denied that a final Qatari-mediated agreement is close, accused the DRC government of undermining the talks, and set several preconditions for future talks. Rwandan President Paul Kagame expressed skepticism that the US-brokered agreement with the DRC will bring peace to the eastern DRC. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 in the Bwito chiefdom in Rutshuru district in North Kivu.

Significant Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters clashed with M23 in the Bwito chiefdom in Rutshuru district. The Congolese media outlet Radio Okapi reported that Wazalendos clashed with M23 using light and heavy weaponry in several groups, including in Kihondo, Bambo, and Bukombo, from July 3 and 6.[i] Radio Okapi reported that Wazalendo fighters are attempting to dislodge M23 from several areas in Bwito.[ii] The outlet reported that locals in Bwito have “completely deserted” several villages on the RP1030, including Nyanzale and Kikuku, due to the fighting in recent weeks.[iii]

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government forces in a remote area in Walikale district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 clashed with the Congolese army and Wazalendo fighters in the hills near Katobi in the Kisimba group in Walikale district on July 6.[iv] Katobi is located roughly 8 miles east of Pinga, a military and logistical hub in northern Masisi district, on the RP1030. Actualite.cd reported separately on July 3 that M23 had reinforced its positions in several villages in Kisimba and to the south on the border with Masisi district near Nyabiondo.[v]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC and M23 are set to convene for a fifth round of Qatari-mediated peace talks this week. Massad Boulos, US President Trump’s Africa envoy, told France 24 on July 3 that the two sides would meet again soon in Doha, the Qatari capital, for what he said would be the “last and final round.”[vi] Congolese and M23 officials both confirmed that their respective sides would return to Doha for the talks.[vii] Boulos said that the United States would participate in the latest round of talks.[viii] A pro-M23 source said on social media that the talks would begin early this week.[ix] Boulos told France 24 that the two sides had reached a final agreement, which would be “fine-tuned” in the next round of talks.[x] French media reported in early July that Qatar has continued to try to broker a final agreement but that the talks have stalled over counterproposals and non-starter demands from both sides.[xi]

M23 officials denied that a final Qatari-mediated agreement is close, accused the DRC government of undermining the talks, and set several preconditions for future talks, however. M23 officials—including M23’s lead negotiator in Doha, Benjamin Mbonimpa—held a press conference in Goma where they denied Boulos’ statement that the two sides are nearing a final agreement on July 3.[xii] M23 said that the US-brokered agreement between the DRC and Rwanda was an “important step” but that “our problems are different from what was discussed in Washington.”[xiii] M23 demanded that the DRC government implement eight “confidence-building measures,” which the group said are “essential for facilitating productive talks as initially required.”[xiv] Several of the preconditions are demands that M23 has listed since the Qatari-mediated talks began.[xv] M23 accused the DRC government of obstructing the peace process, delaying the talks, and sending a delegation without decision-making authority to Doha.[xvi] The DRC foreign minister said that the DRC would refer M23’s eight preconditions to the Doha process during a press conference on July 3.[xvii]

Rwandan President Paul Kagame expressed skepticism that the US-brokered agreement will bring peace in the eastern DRC. Kagame said during a press conference on July 4 that Rwanda would implement the US-brokered agreement but that the DRC’s unwillingness to neutralize the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) would “indefinitely prolong the problems” between the DRC and Rwanda.[xviii] Kagame claimed that the FDLR remains a security threat to Rwanda and that Rwanda would continue to take unilateral military action under the pretext of the FDLR threat in the eastern DRC if the DRC “plays tricks.”[xix] Kagame said that Rwanda would implement the US-brokered agreement but that it was not sufficient to address the security crisis in the eastern DRC.[xx] Kagame said that US-brokered agreement and the Qatari-mediated talks between the DRC and M23 must be seen as “two sides of the same coin.”[xxi] Kagame dismissed the UN’s recent report that Rwanda provided substantial military backing to M23 in early 2025.[xxii]

*CTP will be pausing the Congo War Security Review for Independence Day in the United States on July 4. The next Congo War Security Review will publish as usual on July 7.*

Data Cutoff: July 2, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: The DRC and Rwandan foreign ministers gave conflicting timelines of the joint concept of operations plan. DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner said that the DRC is aiming to seal a peace deal with M23 before a heads of state summit in July. Reuters leaked a UN report that claimed Rwanda still exerted control over M23 in early 2025. M23 conducted a clearing operation against suspected pro-Congolese government fighters in Sake in North Kivu.

Significant Activity in Rutshuru & Eastern Masisi Districts

M23 conducted a clearing operation against suspected pro-Congolese government fighters in Sake in North Kivu. Congolese media reported that M23 conducted the operation in several neighborhoods in Sake and arrested close to 20 suspected pro-Congolese government fighters on July 1.[i] M23 reportedly transferred the suspected fighters to Goma for “in-depth investigations.”[ii] The Congolese news outlet Radio Okapi said that M23 has conducted four clearing operations and arrested nearly 80 suspected DRC government sympathizers in the Sake area since mid-June.[iii]

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters repelled an M23 attack in Walikale district in North Kivu. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 attacked Wazalendo positions in a remote village in Kisimba group in Walikale on July 1.[iv] The outlet reported separately that Wazalendos kidnapped two M23 “commanders” in the nearby Ikoko group in Walikale on June 30.[v] M23 conducted an unsuccessful search operation in the bush to locate the abducted commanders.[vi]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC and Rwandan foreign ministers gave conflicting timelines of the implementation of the joint concept of operations plan (CONOP). Rwandan Foreign Minister Oliver Nduhungirehe said that Rwanda will withdraw its troops only after the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) is eradicated in an interview with the French magazine Jeune Afrique on June 28.[vii] Nduhungirehe said that CONOP “clearly states” that FDLR’s liquidation will “pave the way” for Rwanda’s withdrawal.[viii] The Congolese Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner said that the two measures “must be done concurrently,” however.[ix] Wagner said that the “first component” of the CONOP is Rwanda’s withdrawal and that the second is FDLR’s eradication.[x] The CONOP published by the US State Department lists Rwanda’s withdrawal from the eastern DRC in sequence after the FDLR’s neutralization in the second overall phase of the plan.[xi]

Wagner said that the DRC is aiming to seal a peace deal with M23 before a heads of state summit in July. Wagner told Bloomberg on June 30 that the DRC wants a deal with M23 before DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, this month.[xii] The outlet said that any agreement would not stipulate that M23 “necessarily needs to withdraw” but that a deal would allow the DRC to bring “something tangible” to the summit.[xiii]

Reuters leaked a UN report that claimed Rwanda still exerted control over M23 in early 2025. The UN report said that Rwanda maintained operational authority over M23 “on whether to seize, hold, or relinquish territory” in the reporting period from early 2025 to late April.[xiv] The UN report claimed that Rwanda’s main objective in backing M23 was not mainly to address the FDLR threat but to “conquer additional territories” in the eastern DRC.[xv] The report said that Rwanda continued to provide training and substantial military support to M23, including sophisticated air defense systems, that gave M23 a “decisive tactical advantage” over pro-Congolese government forces.[xvi] Reuters reported that the report claimed that Rwanda deployed at least 6,000 troops on Congolese soil before M23 conducted its sweeping offensive in early 2025.[xvii] The UN estimated that 1,000 to 1,500 Rwandan troops were still deployed in M23-controlled territory when the reporting period ended in late April.[xviii] A Rwandan spokesperson told Reuters that the report “misrepresents Rwanda’s longstanding security concerns” regarding FDLR and its decision to deploy troops.[xix]

Data Cutoff: June 30, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

To receive the Africa File and Congo War Security Review via email, please subscribe here.

Follow CTP on X, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda in US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End.

Read CTP’s assessment on former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s return to the DRC here.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here.

Key Takeaway: Corneille Nangaa, the head of M23’s political branch, gave a speech calling for solutions to the “real causes” of conflict after the United States brokered a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. M23 repelled several pro-Congolese government Wazalendo attacks in Walungu district south of Bukavu. M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in a town on the border between Masisi and Walikale districts in North Kivu. M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters near the RN2 road in South Kivu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo fighters near the RN2 road in South Kivu. Independent Congolese journalist Daniel Michombero reported on social media that M23 clashed with Wazalendos near Mushweshe village on June 30.[i] Mushweshe is about ten miles east of Kavumu village on the RN2 road and 22 miles north of Bukavu, the South Kivu provincial capital.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 clashed with Wazalendo fighters in a village on the border between Masisi and Walikale districts in North Kivu. The Congolese news outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 clashed with  Wazalendos in Nyabiondo in Masisi district on the RP529 on June 29.[ii] Nyabiondo is roughly 10 miles west of the Masisi district capital on the RP529. Actualite.cd reported separately that M23 has been reinforcing its positions with troops and military equipment near Nyabiondo since June 26.[iii]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 repelled several Wazalendo attacks near the Walungu district capital in South Kivu. Congolese media reported that Wazalendo elements attacked M23 in several villages in the Kaniola group, roughly six miles west of Walungu town, on June 26 and June 27.[iv] Kaniola is about 24 miles south of Bukavu on the RN2 in Walungu district. M23 deployed reinforcements and heavy weaponry to Kaniola and Walungu town to launch counterattacks on Wazalendos on June 28.[v]  

Major Political Developments

Corneille Nangaa, the head of M23’s political branch, gave a speech calling for solutions to the “real causes” of conflict after the United States brokered a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. Nangaa called the peace agreement a “useful” step forward but “limited” in nature because it addresses only a “small part” of the “real causes” of the M23 conflict in the eastern DRC.[vi] Nangaa characterized the notion that the conflict in the eastern DRC is mainly between the DRC and Rwanda as “deception.”[vii] Nangaa criticized the economic aspects of the US-brokered agreement as an “attempted selloff” of Congolese natural resources by DRC President Félix Tshisekedi in a bid to “satisfy ambition and maintain the power of one individual.”[viii] Nangaa accused the DRC government of trying to undermine and “systematically torpedo” Qatari-mediated peace talks with the DRC government.[ix] Nangaa said that M23’s “legitimate demands remain” and that they would not be addressed without an inter-Congolese dialogue.[x] Nangaa claimed that M23 administers more than 13,000 square miles of territory with more than 11 million people in the eastern DRC.[xi]