Pakistan Security Brief

China offers $500 million loan for Iran-Pakistan pipeline; India test fires cruise missile, aborts test; Militants attack Indian security forces in Srinagar; Pakistani soldier stoned to death; Balochistan police officers arrests children in connection with January bombings; TTP burns civilian houses in Tirah Valley; Indian authorities decide to keep Guru’s body, decision sparks uproar; Former Afghan intelligence chief accuses Pakistan of harboring Taliban leadership; U.S. intelligence director says al Qaeda threat to U.S. low; U.S. officials say Iran-al Qaeda ties weakening; Stocks recover from U.S. sanctions fear; Analyst accuses India of hindering trade; Several dead from firing incidents in Karachi.

Iran-Pakistan Pipeline

• According to a March 13 report in the Express Tribune, the Chinese government has offered to give Pakistan a $500 million loan to help fund the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, the construction of which was inaugurated on Monday.  The move comes after repeated U.S. warnings that the pipeline could trigger sanctions against Pakistan for funding Iranian oil and gas industries.  In a television interview on Tuesday, Adviser to the Prime Minister Dr. Mirza Ikhtiar Baig said the pipeline will “fulfill about 40[percent] of Pakistan’s energy needs.” [1]

• On Tuesday, Pakistani stocks largely recovered from the nearly 400 point dip on Monday, closing over 350 points higher at the end of the day.  Analysts suspect that fear of U.S. Sanctions over the Iran-Pakistan pipeline caused the drop on Monday.  Those fears were relieved when no sanctions were announced by Tuesday evening.[2]

Indo-Pak Relations and Kashmiri Militancy

• On Wednesday, two militants dressed as cricket players opened fire on Indian Central Reserve Police Force officers (CRPF), killing five police officers in Srinagar, Kashmir. The two militants were also killed in the exchange of fire and at least four police officers and three civilians were injured. Srinagar has been under a strict curfew following protests over the execution of Afzal Guru, a man convicted of the 2001 attacks on the Indian Parliament. In response to the attack, Indian Home Secretary R.K. Singh said that he believes the attack originated from Pakistan. The Hizbul Mujahideen reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack.[3]

• On Tuesday, the Indian military test-fired a two-stage Nirbhay subsonic cruise missile from Chandipur, but had to abort the test halfway through when the missile “veered off course.” The missile is a medium range (1000 km), stealth projectile that can be launched from land, air, and sea platforms. After noticing the missile deviating from its expected course, the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), which designed the missile and conducted the test, aborted the mission.[4]

• According to a Wednesday Express Tribune article, a recent Pakistani intelligence report accused elements within the Indian government of “hindering trade between India and Pakistan.”  The report cited examples of smuggling attempts into Pakistan, explaining how the Indian mafia, which it says is tolerated and supported by Indian authorities and agencies, tampers with locks and seals to sneak contraband into Pakistan.[5]

• After Indian authorities decided not to return Mohammad Afzal Guru’s body to his family, furious Kashmiris held a meeting at the Jammu and Kashmir assembly on Tuesday.  Uproar at the meeting sparked separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani to call for strikes in protest.  Rioting and protests erupted in Kashmir in early February after authorities executed Guru for his role in the 2001 attacks on Parliament.[6]

Militancy

• On Wednesday, Balochistan police officers arrested 11 children between the ages of 11 and 16 for their alleged involvement in the January attacks in Bacha Khan square, Quetta which killed 12 people. According to police officials, the arrested confessed to receiving Rs 3,000 (approximately $30) from the separatist United Baloch Army for planting packages containing improvised explosive devices (IED) in various locations. According to the police, the children were arrested after an exchange of fire with militants on Tuesday night. Eight militants, suspected of being the children’s handlers, managed to escape.[7] 

• On Tuesday, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants reportedly burned the houses of ten civilians in the Maidan area of the Tirah Valley, Khyber agency for supporting rival militant group Ansural Islam (AI). Ansarul Islam spokesperson, Sadaat Afridi, claimed to have killed 13 TTP militants in response to attacks. He stated the four AI militant were killed and three others injured during clashes with TTP.[8]

• In Karachi, unidentified assailants shot and killed two police officers near the Defence area on Tuesday night. Two additional police officers were killed and one injured near Nazimabad.[9] Four assailants shot and killed a Dubai-based businessman in Sohrab Goth on Tuesday. One of the suspects was killed and another captured. A Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) activist was shot and killed in Landhi and another person was shot and killed in Sharafi Goth. The bodies of two gunshot victims were found near Malir River in Jaam Goth. Sindh Rangers captured 16 suspected criminals during targeted operations in Orangi on Wednesday. An explosion was reported in Askari Park on Tuesday. No casualties were reported and cause of the explosion is not yet known.[10]

• On Tuesday, tribesmen in Parachinar, Kurram agency tied a Pakistani soldier to a car and stoned him to death for having a romantic relationship with a local woman.[11]

Terrorism

• On Tuesday, U.S. national intelligence director James Clapper told congress that "the threat from al-Qa'ida and the potential for a massive coordinated attack on the United States is diminished." He stressed that affiliate groups, like those in Yemen and Mali, present a "more diversified, decentralized and persistent threat," and that they "remain determined to attack western interests." [12]

• A Washington Post article published March 12 cited U.S. officials and terrorism experts as saying that Iran’s recent expulsion of Osama bin Laden’s son-in-law Sulaiman Abu Ghaith was further evidence of weakening ties between Iran and al Qaeda.  Officials posit that religious tensions, particularly from the Syrian civil war, where Iran’s Shia and al Qaeda support opposing groups, make Iran a less tenable host for the group than it has been in the past.[13]

Domestic Politics

• Speaking to the press on Tuesday, Pakistan's former president Pervez Musharraf’s spokesperson Khurram Haris announced that Musharraf will return to Pakistan on March 24th after a four-year exile in Dubai. According to Haris, Musharraf intends to take part in elections, and “will present himself to the courts” upon arriving to clear up contention over the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.[14]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• In a speech on Tuesday, National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said a “crisis no longer loom[s] over US relationship with Pakistan,” explaining that while tensions and conflict still permeate relations, there is no imminent existential threat to relations.  He stressed the two countries’ common interests in fighting terrorism and extremism, and expressed the continued and increased need for cooperation between the two nations.[15]

Releasing Taliban Prisoners

• On Tuesday, the former head of the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) Amrullah Saleh accused the Pakistani government of knowingly harboring the Afghan Taliban leadership and accepting money from Afghanistan to release them.  He went on to condemn the way Pakistan treats Afghanistan, saying the Pakistani government operates as though Afghanistan is another province, and seeks to “dominate” the country.[16]